Let's Start Over

lukeduke1980 · May 20, 2016

Sweeney/Quentin/Mastrianni/Benson combined for 126 spring at-bats. I don't know what that means, but it seems like a waste, when guys like Kepler and Buxton need more experience. Something must not have seemed right then if those guys seemed like decent alternatives.

Mike Sixel · May 20, 2016

good snip, by the way. Got carried away.

Not at all, the post was great. I just hate when my screen is filled with quotes......and not replies. Hence, the snip.

jokin · May 20, 2016

To you it is. It's not an opinion I agree with, but the obvious point about poor decisions is more important, and on that we agree.

I'd simply remind you that poor decisions can have good outcomes and vice versa, and I think fair-minded folk will remind themselves of a few reasonable decisions out there among Shane's 20 in which the outcome just hasn't cooperated. This doesn't in any way suggest Ryan didn't make a whole lot of really questionable moves. It just means that, to use one example, not trading Plouffe wasn't necessarily the idiotic decision a handful of posters like to portray it to be.

It's possible to be both critical and fair-minded for some, but maybe there are a few for which this is not within their realm of capability.

Are you representing your opinion as that of a huge majority that is far more objective than "a few" who are incapable of objectivity?

I would demur at your rather subjective assumption on this point. ie, How many, if any, used the term "idiotic", with respect to the retention of Plouffe? Is that what you consider a "fair-minded" characterization of those with whom you disagree?

Dr. Evil · May 20, 2016

MLB all-futility division consisting of the Twins and the teams that finished with the worst regular season record in the past 81 years. The standings after 40 games-

1962 Mets 12-28

1945 Phillies 10-30

2016 Twins 10-30

2003 Tigers 9-31

1952 Pirates 8-32

How we characterize the offseason moves this year or any recent year kind of doesn't matter to me. I can think anything I want about the front office or any individual within that office. Bottom line is they are doing a historically horrible job and thus need to be replaced.

Do we even have 2 or 3 starting players who are at or near all-star caliber? We have a handful of mediocre guys that we over value, a bunch of young guys, a handful of dumpster dive guys and some guys who are out of options and you could argue should be DFA'd.

Add to this a GM who has an aversion or inability to make deals or make definitive decisions on player evaluation and we are in for more of the same for the for the next several years.

If you owned the Twins, how much would you have to not give a $hit about results to allow this to happen right under your nose?

Dr. Evil · May 20, 2016

Since I am sort of on a roll here I will add the following comments just because doing so makes me feel better.

If I owned this team I would have kicked 30 holes in my office wall, dumped several bat racks and fired every single front office and coaching person that I had. Hell, I would even fire the peanut vendors.

I ask myself, if this team were in the world series against the Twins from 5 years ago, how would it play out? If I am unsure about the answer, then no real improvements have taken place!! I find that totally unbelievable!!!

I hope this team doesn't win another game all year and the owners lose their arses.

d-mac · May 20, 2016

Rajal Davis is replacement level. You must be thinking the team would get the 2009 version. That was a long time ago.
Aaaron Hicks is still playing below replacement level. As many players do, he recently had a good week that gives the players something to hope for.
Tyler Duffey. You want to stick the best starter in the bullpen

False. Rajai Davis has a fWAR of 1.0 this season. Buxton -0.4, Arcia -0.4, Santana -0.5, Rosario -0.1, Sano 0.5

Replacing Santana with Davis would have netted us an extra 1.5 WAR.

Riverbrian · May 20, 2016

I'm going to do my best and not use hindsight to praise or condemn so I will stay consistent with what I thought during the off season as it happened and simply repeat that. It's the only fair way that I can be allowed to criticize anything.

1. From day one of the off-season... I was concerned about the bullpen and the bullpen was my biggest concern perhaps only concern. I was really happy with the Jepsen trade and I didn't care what it cost because we were in contention but I felt it was too little too late. I felt that we needed two upper level bullpen arms and if we didn't acquire two upper level bullpen arms... we would be overly reliant on Jepsen whose career track record was the fringe of set-up and frequently bumped out of set-up and we would be in even worse shape if Perkins didn't rebound from whatever happened to Perkins... AND... If we were ever to consider moving May back to the rotation... we would have no chance to do this if his critical need in the bullpen wasn't filled.

2. I expected Hicks to be our opening day CF based on what I felt was fairly nice improvement in 2015 and I was pretty sure that Buxton should start in the minors based on what he looked like in 2015.

3. I would have never considered trading Hicks for J.R. Murphy and was immediately concerned about the deal. I thought Hicks could hold the fort down until Buxton was ready and slide elsewhere when Buxton arrived. In my mind... we traded a realistic potential 20/20 guy for a catcher that will probably never reach 10/10. I felt that Murphy's type of production could have been replicated by simply signing one of the many catching options available such as Salty or Arencebia or anyone for that matter. I felt we overpaid for position scarcity and I have a personal problem with that type of acquisition.

4. Once the Hicks trade happened... I said... "well I hope the scouts were right and JR turns out great". and I closed the book on catcher... It is what it is.

5. After the Hicks trade... I immediately assumed that the Twins would acquire a veteran CF to replace Hunter's veteran presence and allow Buxton to cook some more in AAA. I honestly never dreamed that the Twins would roll with Buxton in CF. There's no way, they would rush Buxton after making the same not ready in CF mistake 3 years in a row prior. There was no way they would do it a 4th time and there was no way they would do it after coming close to the playoffs in 2015. I honestly thought there was no way and I waited for the Vet CF acquisition that was sure to come. I checked the CF FA Market and I honestly didn't like any of the choices... I liked Fowler but didn't like giving up the draft choice... OK... not a problem... the Twins could trade for one. Let's see who they get because they surely won't go with Buxton at CF on opening day.

6. Runzler, Benson, Thompson, Centeno Signings... I didn't care... I expected none of them to contribute to what was going to be a great 2016.

7. Park was signed... I was shocked that the Twins actually out-bid someone for anyone. I knew nothing about Park but I checked out his stats and was immediately optimistic because his stats looked better than Kang and I would have loved to have signed Kang type production. I thought to myself... here we go... the front office is making THE MOVE and going for it.

8. I believe it was around this time that I heard the plan of moving Sano to RF. I was immediately OK with it because I'm not the type of person who worries about log jams at all. I like Log Jams... it means you have lots of logs to choose from. I didn't think that Plouffe had to be traded... I thought Plouffe, Sano and if Park works out... all of them in the same lineup only made us stronger. I also assumed that the Twins would not move him to RF unless they felt he could actually play the position somewhat OK.

9. Hicks, Bosher, Mastro, Kintzler signed... Didn't care and didn't expect them to contribute at all. I'm waiting to see what the front office does that will blow my socks off... it's sure to come because we came close and thats what teams that come close do.

10. Bullpen arms are startiing to move around. Benoit is traded to the Mariners, Kimbrel to the Red Sox, K-Rod to the Tigers. I thought Chavez would have been a decent bullpen acquisition and he goes to the Jays and then the Padres got Pomeranz and that was a guy that I wanted bad... we needed a lefthander and he impressed me big time when I watched him pitch.

11. Jed Lowrie was traded to the A's. You may be wondering what this has to do with the Twins off-season but this started to dominate my thoughts when it happened. I thought that Brett Lawrie had just became available when Lowrie was acquired and I'm a huge Brett Lawrie fan. I said to myself... If I was Terry Ryan... I would go get Lawrie... just get this done. If we picked up Lawrie we would have one of the top three defensive 3B in the land and a guy who could shift to 2B to give Dozier a day off and allow Sano to play 3B on occasion and then give Arcia some RF time. Lawrie made plays at 3B that would leave me stunned and he did it nightly. This would have gave the Twins the ability to field multiple lineups and compete in almost any situation. I really wanted this to happen but I knew that it wouldn't.. it was much more inventive than our front office had demonstrated in the past. Just know... if I was the GM... I would have done this and done it quickly.

12. The Winter Meetings... I'm hearing rumors of the Twins talking with the Rays about Boxberger and McGee... I think to myself... well I've heard rumors before and they usually don't happen but this trade makes too much sense so I allowed myself to think... maybe? We'd Pick up two nice bullpen arms in one deal... I figured it would be expensive especially after seeing what the Red Sox paid for Kimbrel but we had the farm system to pay the price and I was OK with that... as long as it wasn't Buxton or Berrios. I read a quote from Terry Ryan saying the bullpen was the top priority at the meetings so I allowed myself some hope. I also still fully expected a Vet CF to arrive at some point because there was no way they would roll with Buxton opening day although I wasn't hearing a lot of convincing chatter.

13. Brett Lawrie is traded to the White Sox and I think to myself... Well this couldn't have been worse. I instantly knew three things. 1. One of my favorite non-Twin players was going to play for my most hated team. 2. The White Sox Defense which we could always count on being bad was instantly improved and this was going to be an issue for us. 3. The White Sox didn't pay that much and this meant the 3B market was soft and I was pretty sure at that point... Plouffe was going nowhere and I was OK with that but man... I really wanted Lawrie and he went for a surprisingly low price.

14. Smith to the Red Sox... Warren to the Cubs... and then Justin Wilson to the Tigers. The Wilson trade made me say "damn It" and I meant it. It's not that I expect the Twins to reach deals at the snap of the fingers because deals take two to make and you have to have something that they want. But... I was pissed because they wanted Hicks... Why not Hicks for Wilson instead of Murphy. That I would have been OK with. Wilson is a great left hander in my opinion and to make matters worse... it was the Tigers... New GM Avila... went to work and immediately rebuilt what was a bad bullpen in 2015. The Tigers just went out and did it and I'm still waiting for the Twins to do the same.

15. The Padres Acquire Bethancourt... I didn't care because I didn't want Bethancourt at all. I figured that there was something really really wrong with him since the Braves basically gave him away. But... I did think to myself... Hmm... We could have picked up a catcher for basically nothing. This Murphy better be special and I'm starting to get real concerned that Buxton will be starting in CF opening day.

16. Glles to the Astros... And the Astros paid a huge price and I'm thinking that the price for bullpen talent is off the charts now. I don't care... we need bullpen... gotta pay it.

17. Frazier is traded to the White Sox and Escobar is traded to the Angels and my thoughts about the soft 3B market are confirmed. Freese and Alverez still looking for jobs. Plouffe ain't going anywhere and I'm still happy about that... happy if I couldn't have Lawrie... or... TODD FRAZIER... I didn't think Frazier was a realistic possibility for us.. He was one of the best 3B in the game period and I figured he would be too expensive. However... the White Sox got Frazier for a couple of decent prospects and that is it. This is Todd Frazier... Elite Defense and one of the top hitters in the NL. A couple of Decent... not elite... Prospects is all it took. Escobar is picked up by the Angles for basically nothing and yep... It's a Soft 3B market and the White Sox just instantly fixed their biggest problem... DEFENSE.

18. We sign Abad... I didn't care... It was a decent left hander for the bullpen but I was worried that this was the only move so I kind of resented it so I never appreciated the possibility that the Twins may have found someone decent. I read about the Twins thinking that he was tipping his pitches and thought OK... that's nice... Now where are the damn elite bullpen arms that we need.

19. Rajai Davis is signed by the Indians... Now this I care about... Not that I loved Rajai Davis but he was probably the only FA that made CF sense for the Twins. I'm starting to think that Buxton is going to be the guy.

20. Chapman is traded to the Yankees... Storen to the Blue Jays and I'm starting to strongly believe that we are indeed done doing stuff. Bullpen help is not coming... OF Help is not coming. My new biggest concern isn't the bullpen or CF... It's that every other team in the American League was plugging holes and getting better. I didn't think there was a weak team in the American League at this point... Maybe the A's... Maybe the Angels but those teams wouldn't be that weak. This is about the time that I suspected that our fates were going to rest on youth and that youth would have to grow up quickly because there would be no nights off.

21. McGee is traded to the Rockies and I have to stop and say to myself. OK... this is the team. We took a young contending team and got even younger when almost the entire American League made significant improvements.

22. The Twins keep Santana and Arcia on the 25 Man Roster and I tell myself... OK maybe this can work... We have depth everywhere. If Park doesn't work out... Vargas can get another shot. If Sano doesn't work out in RF... We can move him back to 3B or DH. If Rosario doesn't work out... we can give Arcia a shot... I don't love the Starters but... if someone gets hurt or fails... we got Duffey and Berrios waiting to claim a spot. We got some depth in the rotation... If Buxton works out this will be the first time in a while that we have a roster full of players who can play. I still hate the bullpen and I am still scared that there is no safety net for Buxton but all in all... I like the teams possible depth.

23. The Season starts

24. The Wheels Come Off... Buxton struggles and Murphy struggles... Thank God Hicks is struggling with the Yankees because I would have been beside myself if we actually Killed CF and Backup C and the Yankee Fans are writing songs about Aaron Hicks.

25. I Type all of this so I'm on record of what I thought... and I keep any hindsight out of it. Although... most of you won'y read this.. it's too long.

It is my opinion... that if the Twins would have did exactly what I wanted... We would have maybe won 5 more games. Because... things are pretty bad out there.

d-mac · May 20, 2016

Is it possible to consider that the retirement of Torii Hunter was the highlight of the Twins off season? (please set your snark meters to 50%).

You totally just made me think of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3PfKf0ndik

diehardtwinsfan · May 20, 2016

No Twins fan bats 1.000 in their opinions, nor does any GM ever bat 1.000 in their offseason moves.

Lots of people (not just on this thread) continue to claim this is a bunch of hindsight. First of all, who cares? This is an Internet discussion board.

Fair, I agree. I'm simply saying that it's easy to complain after the fact, and the number of 'what I would do' posts prior to the fact were pretty low. I'm simply suggesting that it is really easy to look back on everything that happened and say I'd have made all the right decisions. It's a bit more difficult when you write out your own plan. That's all.

bird · May 20, 2016

No, i mean your sarcastic response is fair.....saying all good moves are luck, and all bad moves are not luck.....I agree with your statement 100%, that is BS. You can't say that all good is luck, and all bad is not luck. So, we are on teh same side on this one.

We are also on the same side that absolutes are not fair.....

My bad...

Rosterman · May 20, 2016

An awful large amount of dumpster diving in the above. Too much, to be sure.

The real decisions were what to do with Plouffe and establishing the fact that Sano IS the third baseman now and in the fuiure (the Twins did it to other players when they rid themselves of productive Pierzynski and Mientkiewicz -- or the clubhouse guy hated stitching names on uniforms - for younger stud players).

They need a back up catcher and/or depth. They got both in Murphy, at the expense of Hicks, who isn't really that great heading towards arbitration himself right now. I will say that wasn't, at the time, a total loss move. But I would've started the season with Hicks as backup and Murphy playing fulltime at Rochester, assuming Suzuki would get more starts out of the gate. Losing Hicks for no reason whatsoever was a bad move.

The Twins blew it the season before grabbing Graham in the Rule 5 and letting Gilmartin go to the Mets. And Jones leaving to Milwaukee because you also kept a number of nonsense names on the roster, including Graham. I can partly understand Graham and that decision. He was a failed starter that still had potential and could've developed into a longman out of the pen and potential replacement for Swarzak. If you really felt you needed a Swarzak replacement.

The signing of Park was also an oddity. You had Vargas and Sano at DH, although you want Sano to at least play the field for a few years. Vargas had the potential to be backup at first, with possibly Kepler in the wings. You also had to get Arcia in the mix, somehow. Maybe not signing park would've justified the signings of Sweeney and Quentin to add some veteran presence to the team. But having them in spring training and supposedly fighting for a job when you didn't move Plouffe, had a backlog of like position players, and just not really ending up with a reason for them to be here in the first place, boggles my mind.

What to do with May? Try to build up his innings in a short spring training (and also market Gibson, perhaps). May entered the season in the bullpen with no specific duty except to pitch every single day, it seemed. I would rather see him pitch once every five days and keep us into a game or develop as a bonafide starter. Or make the decision that he is the potential closer.

When Perkins went down, we had to be glad that Jepsen was in the bullpen, until he actually pitched.

Abad was a wonderful signing. A guy who looks to improve. Now the secret is to flip him before he comes down to earth at some point. I doubt that he would welcome the chance to stay with the team next season if he has the option to get away.

I can understand the fear of throwing money at relief specialists, especially long-term. The trick is to recognize that every player runs a risk of failure, or an upside of bringing your team positives and another player back at some point. The Twins have been bad on this point, going back to Delmon Young and that other guy who played left field and should've departed for a prospect or two after a halfway decent season. The general manager has to recognize a nucleus that you wish to continue to build around, and since all players basically play for major league baseball now, you move them in and out as necessary, taking THAT gamble rather than opening a bag of garbage from your dumpster diving and hoping to find some totally fresh, unspoiled and good-to-go.

Yes, for a team that was hinting that they were contenders, that was a horrible off-season. Absolutely horrible. The joy was it meant you were still stuck with a lot of promising players and many more in the wings who DO have the opportunity to win a major league job and run with it to a career. It is up to the players to do so. And hope the coaching staff is doing its best to get them there, too.

DaveW · May 20, 2016

Fair, I agree. I'm simply saying that it's easy to complain after the fact, and the number of 'what I would do' posts prior to the fact were pretty low. I'm simply suggesting that it is really easy to look back on everything that happened and say I'd have made all the right decisions. It's a bit more difficult when you write out your own plan. That's all.

To be fair I would estimate that 80% of the user base here thought having Sano in RF was mind boggling prior to the season starting.

90% were concerned with catching

And like 99.5% were not happy with the bullpen "upgrades"

Of course nobody could envision this total disaster. I was pretty pessimistic coming into 2016 due to regression from some luck and lack of moves, but even I had them pegged for 77 to 85 wins. If someone gave me 50:1 odds that the Twins would start 10-30 on the season I never would have taken them. With this schedule, opening day roster etc I would have guess that 17-23 would have been their worst case scenario for first quarter of the season.

That doesn't let TR and Molly off the hook completely though, as a lot of players have to step up and have been dissapoinments. But good lord, what a mess. I'd place the blame as followed:

50% TR/Front Office

30% players

20% Molly/Field Staff

Drastic Changes need to be made to all three IMO

USAFChief · May 20, 2016

When you line up the Twins offseason moves, what stands out to me is...nothing.

The GM did as close to nothing to improve the team as humanly possible. He took the winter off.

jokin · May 20, 2016

To be fair I would estimate that 80% of the user base here thought having Sano in RF was mind boggling prior to the season starting.

90% were concerned with catching

And like 99.5% were not happy with the bullpen "upgrades"

Of course nobody could envision this total disaster. I was pretty pessimistic coming into 2016 due to regression from some luck and lack of moves, but even I had them pegged for 77 to 85 wins. If someone gave me 50:1 odds that the Twins would start 10-30 on the season I never would have taken them. With this schedule, opening day roster etc I would have guess that 17-23 would have been their worst case scenario for first quarter of the season.

That doesn't let TR and Molly off the hook completely though, as a lot of players have to step up and have been dissapoinments. But good lord, what a mess. I'd place the blame as followed:

50% TR/Front Office
30% players
20% Molly/Field Staff

Drastic Changes need to be made to all three IMO

Pretty fair post all the way around. And although I myself would place a slightly higher percentage blame at the top of the organization, I would also surmise that the overriding concern for the failure to address the bullpen was closer to 99.99% among all informed Twins fans. The pen situation is nothing new. This has been an obvious gap in strategic planning black hole since a year ago in June- when if two solid arms had been acquired to solidify 2015's bullpen mess, it could very well have been enough of an upgrade to have propelled the Twins to a playoff spot. For the organization to publicly state their intentions to correct the situation in the offseason, and then- INSTEAD- compound this glaring pitching upgrade omission by weakening the defense, should be sufficient grounds for the GM's dismissal.

Short of all this, the premise that what's happening on this board and among informed Twins fandom since this disaster got underway is some sort of revisionist history or simply 20/20 hindsight is wildly inaccurate.

DocBauer · May 21, 2016

First, can not LIKE Riverbrian's post enough! Not just for his comments, but for the thought and effort that went in to it. Sticking with the theme of the thread, I had my own ideas, though I will not be as detailed as River was.

First, as stated previously by someone else, training camp invites are nothing to get bent about. Everyone makes them. Most never make it. Some help out at AAA, and occasionally you strike gold. But I will say I didn't understand the Quentin signing.

Based on 2015, the readiness, or lack thereof initially, of prospects, the bullpen, and some OF issues, and catching depth, it seemed to me necessary moves were obvious.

1} I liked the idea of Hicks as a possible OF in some capacity; 4th OF, possible platoon partner with Arcia and/or Rosario. The Trae for Murphy surprised me, but didn't displease me. My solution was to sign a vet FA for 2016, or make a somewhat bigger move than Hicks/Murphh, possibly including Hicks. Murphy could still turn out OK, and I'm not going to bash the move at this point. Soto was one of the guys I had my eye on.

2} I didn't really get the Park move. But I was impressed by the initiative shown and the boldness of the move. While there were questions, I can't argue with adding talent overall.

3} I like Plouffe overall, and I get keeping him with questions about Park, but I still would have traded him, or packaged him, for a solid, experienced RHRP and inserted Sano at 3B. It's his position, he's the future, it's his time.

4} I was OK with the Abad signing. I was even OK with giving Fien another shot as a bounce back candidate that didn't cost much. But even with the aforementioned trade for a solid RHRP, I would have persued a pair of quality arms for the pen elsewhere. Some of the names include Storen, Clipard, and if I recall correctly, Soriano was out there and the guy I probably wanted most. When Bastardo dropped his demands down to 2 years, I would have jumped! (There were a couple other LHP available with questions I COULD have considered) These 2 FA signings, along with a trade acquisition, would deepen and solidify my pen and allow May to be a SP again. I wasn't worried about a couple 2 year contracts as they wouldn't kill payroll at all, and could lead to possible mid-season trade options if/when any of the kids proved ready.

5} I say again, trading Hicks was something I wasn't opposed to, I just would have signed a veteran catcher and included Hicks in a different deal. But in any scenario, with Hicks gone, Davis was perfect, to me, to play CF. At worst, he was depth whenever Buxton was proved ready. (Also tradeable) Next, I felt there several solid, veteran RH OF options available for depth and even platoon situations. Most were about 30-34. Some were coming off solid seasons. Some were solid players/hitters coming off a down year. But there were several options that wouldn't have cost a fortune by any means.

6} I would have traded Nolasco anyway, anyhow. Pick up a bunch of salary, include a decent lower level prospect, whatever. It was time for both parties to move on.

1 bullpen arm via trade, 2 via FA, 1 catcher-probably a FA, and 2 FA OF. This would have deepened the pen, shorn up the catcher spot, and created some depth and various platoon/rotation possibilities. Any and all of these could be traded at any point when a prospect was ready to take their place.

INITIAL OF: Rosario, Davis, Arcia and FA. Santana would be a super utility. Buxton and Kepler in Rochester to begin the year. Again, Hicks COULD have been an option here.

INITIAL INFIELD: Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Park and Nunez. Vargas would have been a 1B/DH option initially. He got off to a poor start this season, but has looked better as of late. Arcia also could be a DH option.

INITIAL CATCHER: Suzuki and the FA we signed.

INITIAL ROTATION: Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Duffey and May. AAA would have Berrios, Meyer, Rogers, Wheeler and Dean all available. (No more fodder)

INITIAL BULLPEN: Perkins, FARHRP, FALHRP, trade RHRP, Jepsen, Abad, Pressly-Tonkin-Fien.

World beaters? No. But a team that made sense, IMO, augmenting the team that finished 2015 with a winning record. A team that could play, compete and win. Injuries and downright poor performance would still not make this a winning team. But I dare say it would have been a more complete, deeper roster than what we have at this point.

Baseball Bat · May 21, 2016

I think we really need to look into moving Dozier. I know this organization is not big on fire sales, but I think it is necessary with some of these guys. I think that Polanco should be ready to be a full time second baseman next season and Dozier would get a large return. People may laugh at that because of his down numbers. However, Jonathan Lucroy had similar down numbers last season and his trade value was still very high. Dozier plays a position where offense is just a bonus and he is in his prime / on a team friendly contract.

DaveW · May 21, 2016

Yeah dozier makes sense as a trade candidate, not only bc he could bring a solid return hopefully, but because for some inexplicable reason the Twins continue to think he is a "lead off hitter"

Mr. Brooks · May 21, 2016

Ryan's latest comments don't suggest he views us as sellers. At least not at this point.

"We can fix the thing," Ryan told KSTP's Darren Wolfson Friday at Target Field. "We gotta get pointed in the right direction. I haven't changed my opinion about the nucleus of this team. "

jokin · May 21, 2016

Ryan's latest comments don't suggest he views us as seller's. At least not at this point.

"We can fix the thing," Ryan told KSTP's Darren Wolfson Friday at Target Field. "We gotta get pointed in the right direction. I haven't

So he's full-on delusional, then?

"We can fix this thing... We gotta get pointed in the right direction. I haven't....."

Wasn't the last transmission from the Captain on the Titanic?

S. · May 21, 2016

"We can fix the thing," Ryan told KSTP's Darren Wolfson Friday at Target Field.

I think I found a gif of the most recent meeting between TR and Molitor

http://gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/George-Costanza-Its-not-a-lie.gif

old nurse · May 21, 2016

False. Rajai Davis has a fWAR of 1.0 this season. Buxton -0.4, Arcia -0.4, Santana -0.5, Rosario -0.1, Sano 0.5

Replacing Santana with Davis would have netted us an extra 1.5 WAR.

That is not how WAR works since you are using fwar here from the site for you

Perhaps one of the most controversial aspects of sabermetrics is the way in which WAR is used. Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate.

You might as well argue that given his one game performance extrapolated out over the season Grossman should have been signed sooner.

Should have tagged Dave on this too but interchanging minimally different position players is not going to change the outcome significantly for the season. Davis was going to go somewhere where he could play regularly. The outcry last winter if the Twins had signed Davis to play centerfield would have been loud. At this point Buxton and Sano are the 2 most likely position players to carry a team

old nurse · May 21, 2016

The starting over notion, since hindsight is so 20-20, is something that really shouldn't be taken seriously. With that thought, here goes. Let us blame Bill Smith. 2008 draft He drafted Hicks. He could have drafted Gerrit Cole instead. Smith would have given him more than enough money to sign. The following year he would have needed a toolsy outfielder and he would have drafted Trout. Could have had Wade Miley rather than Shooter Hunt, too. Now, you have an ace pitcher, lefty starter, star player to build around rather than nothing. Second round, Brian Shaw as the setup guy. Possibly no trading of Ramos for Capps. No trading Hardy for Hoey. Third round, Brandon Crawford at SS so maybe if you needed trade bait for a real pitcher, And at some point they could have drafted Grossman so he wouldn't have been signed now as a savior.

If you try real hard, everything becomes Bill Smith's fault. I used only the fallout from one bad draft with Smith as the boss. Now if only with Santana he ..........

TheLeviathan · May 21, 2016

Good lord, I feel bad for Terry Ryan because he's a better GM than these results.

But my pity for him has nothing on my pity for Bill Smith. We're one step short of blaming 9/11 on the poor dude.

Again, you don't get to run around yelling "hindsight!" when most of the issues this year were being identified in November.

AlwaysinModeration · May 21, 2016

Shouldn't the list of transactions from last winter include Pelfrey and Duensing? At least they weren't resigned!

I don't think I have the energy to start over. I do like the fact that we have "total system failure" and TR saying he and Molitor are "joined at the hip", Molly "not discouraged by Twins' struggles" and TR noting that "it starts with my chair."

A couple more weeks of losses, and there might be some wholesale management changes.

diehardtwinsfan · May 21, 2016

To be fair I would estimate that 80% of the user base here thought having Sano in RF was mind boggling prior to the season starting.

90% were concerned with catching

And like 99.5% were not happy with the bullpen "upgrades"

Of course nobody could envision this total disaster. I was pretty pessimistic coming into 2016 due to regression from some luck and lack of moves, but even I had them pegged for 77 to 85 wins. If someone gave me 50:1 odds that the Twins would start 10-30 on the season I never would have taken them. With this schedule, opening day roster etc I would have guess that 17-23 would have been their worst case scenario for first quarter of the season.

That doesn't let TR and Molly off the hook completely though, as a lot of players have to step up and have been dissapoinments. But good lord, what a mess. I'd place the blame as followed:

50% TR/Front Office
30% players
20% Molly/Field Staff

Drastic Changes need to be made to all three IMO

Dave, this is a pretty good take. I won't argue there.

HitInAPinch · May 21, 2016

So we're anti hindsight? I'm up with that. No need to keep going around in circles. So, here's an original thought:

Where did the Twins have the most success? The Metrodome. The right-field baggie. Fly balls disappearing in the Teflon dome. A "turf" where average ground ball outs rocketed through the infield. And the "OMG noise". All of which were a substantial advantage. How did they win 2 World Series? 4 wins each in the Dome.

The Twins then seem to be pretty close to the Twins now [brunansky, Gaetti, Smalley, etc.] with a few notable exceptions from back then. That ballpark was a distinct advantage for the Twins. I haven't been to Target field, but with the Twins lineup, it's a competitive disadvantage: literally playing on an even field with the rest of the league.

Answer: The Twins need the alternative-world version of the players that have now.

The "Million Dollar Man" version: bigger, smarter, faster.

Riverbrian · May 21, 2016

The starting over notion, since hindsight is so 20-20, is something that really shouldn't be taken seriously. With that thought, here goes. Let us blame Bill Smith. 2008 draft He drafted Hicks. He could have drafted Gerrit Cole instead. Smith would have given him more than enough money to sign. The following year he would have needed a toolsy outfielder and he would have drafted Trout. Could have had Wade Miley rather than Shooter Hunt, too. Now, you have an ace pitcher, lefty starter, star player to build around rather than nothing. Second round, Brian Shaw as the setup guy. Possibly no trading of Ramos for Capps. No trading Hardy for Hoey. Third round, Brandon Crawford at SS so maybe if you needed trade bait for a real pitcher, And at some point they could have drafted Grossman so he wouldn't have been signed now as a savior.
If you try real hard, everything becomes Bill Smith's fault. I used only the fallout from one bad draft with Smith as the boss. Now if only with Santana he ..........

I thought about hiding this post because unless I was reading it wrong... it seemed a little too snarky.

I chose not to hide it because it was at least historically interesting.

I do believe that this topic and the subsequent posts are fair game. Terry Ryan is getting blasted right now and TD Posters can actually post what they would have done differently in the off season. The wheels have come off... explain how you would have kept them on. It seems potentially much more constructive than just saying he must go.

I've done this with my grievances and it helped me conclude (hypothetically of course) that my moves would have been minimal improvements at best.

mikelink45 · May 21, 2016

I fear that this is the kind of material we are going to have to write and read this year. After Duffey came back to the fold and pitched poorly last night we lost the one positive thread. With Mauer back to his recent self we do not have the resurgent vet. With the only thing we can look forward to is Park hitting a mistake pitch out of the park it is going to be a slow and boring year on TD. At least your writers look at the minors so we can have something to follow. However, even that has been tempered by the fact that all the great prospects keep falling on their face.

spinowner · May 21, 2016

Some pretty dumb luck on Centeno (for whatever he will end up bringing) and Abad. That's basically it.

I'd call Centeno luck, but not Abad. Over the years TR has found relievers on the scrap heap that have made good contributions. Fien was good for a couple years, Jared Burton likewise. I'm sure there are others that don't readily come to mind. This type of signing is valuable, however it should not be the biggest move of an off-season.

spinowner · May 21, 2016

Here are two people's takes on what they would have done differently based on hindsight.

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