Article: Calling It: Miguel Sano Will Be AL MVP

[Nick Nelson]

There's plenty of reason for skepticism regarding Miguel Sano's defense in right field. But at the plate, his masterful approach and incredible power should do more than make up for it.

 

I believe that if he stays healthy, he'll outshine all other hitters in the American League on his way to a Most Valuable Player award in his first full season.The Twins were aided by so many strong rookie performances last year that the term "sophomore slump" can't help but be uttered this spring. It's certainly legitimate to wonder whether the league might adjust in Year 2 to Eddie Rosario's free-swinging tendencies, or Tyler Duffey's two-pitch mix.

 

Somehow that seems hard to envision with Sano. His approach at the plate is impeccable. There's not really a weakness to exploit. He'll strike out, sure – in bunches sometimes – but Sano demonstrates such patience at the dish and works so many deep counts that he's invariably going to force mistakes.

 

Taking advantage of those has never exactly been a problem for him.

 

As a rookie, Sano ran the count full in 93 of his 335 plate appearances. That's 28 percent. The major-league leader in full counts was Cincinnati's Joey Votto, who got there 173 times in 695 PA (25 percent). The American League leader was Mike Trout (21 percent).

 

Votto led the majors in walks. Trout hit 41 home runs with brilliant defense in center field. Both are former MVP recipients. Sano's profile differs from each, but he has traits that have traditionally been valued very highly by award voters.

 

With his immense power and his placement in the middle of a quality lineup, Sano figures to put up outstanding numbers in the home run and RBI categories. His big personality and occasional bravado will endear him to the baseball world. The distance, and often dramatic nature, of his majestic homers can make him a steady presence on highlight reels.

 

His defense, which is likely to be adequate at best in right field and potentially quite a bit worse, won't help bolster his value, exactly. But he may not spend the entire season there, and I tend to think that most voters would favorably view his dutifully going out and playing a brand new position because his team asked him to.

 

Sano's legacy will be built upon what he does at the plate, however, and he shows no signs of slowing in production after putting up rookie numbers that would've factored into the MVP conversation if prorated over a full season.

 

This spring in Fort Myers he has been doing his thing. When I've watched, he has worked a full count in seemingly every at-bat. The strikeouts have been there, as expected – 14 in 38 at-bats – but he has also drawn 11 walks. And when he has made contact, he has consistently put a charge into the ball, resulting in six extra-base hits and plenty of gasp-inducing line drives.

 

Sano has never put up an OPS lower than 870 at any level. That almost feels like his floor. And his ceiling, as a 22-year-old who is still learning how to play in the majors with about a half-season's worth of at-bats under his belt? It's hard to put a cap on it. If he can stay on the field, he is going to put up some eye-popping offensive statistics.

 

Health is no given for him. He's got a big body, and will be especially vulnerable while running around in the outfield for the first time. In his short time with the Twins, we've seen him deal with some ankle and hamstring issues.

 

But since graduating to full-season ball, Sano has never missed an extended period of time due to injury, outside of the unfortunate Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2014. In 2012, 2013 and 2015, he averaged 564 plate appearances, and that's with shorter seasons in the minors.

 

Of course, Sano could have a healthy, terrific season and still fall short of the MVP award. Maybe an unspectacular batting average resulting from his high K-rate holds him back (no hitter has been MVP with a BA under .280 since 1972, and only five of the last 50 to win it have batted below .300). Maybe someone like Trout or Carlos Correa has an even more ridiculous year. Maybe the Twins fall well short of the postseason, essentially eliminating any of their players from serious consideration.

 

But I'm feeling optimistic. When you watch Sano step up to the plate, watch him get his money's worth in every single at-bat, watch intimidated pitchers feebly try to nibble the outside edges of the zone against him, it's hard to feel any other way.

 

Some might believe that Sano has some growing up to do. To me, he looks like a grown man who is ready to take this league by storm.

 

He's not going to win a Gold Glove, but he's a very viable candidate to take home some other hardware, and that's a hell of an exciting thought with the season less than a week away.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

 

Some might believe that Sano has some growing up to do. To me, he looks like a grown man who is ready to take this league by storm.

 

I think I believe that both are true... And I can't wait to watch it! It's must-see TV when he comes to the plate. 

[Rezzy]

Yes! Thank you!

 

It's only a week away, friends!

[tobi0040]

I have a different prediction. Miguel Sano will have an incredible MLB career and never win an MVP.

 

A few reasons, they really penalize guys that done add value defensively. Consider that Miguel Cabrera has a career 321 batting average with an OPS around 960 and he only had 2 MVP's.

 

In addition to defense, Sano is likely going to strike out too much to hit .300.

So even if he hits 45 jacks a year, a .280 average and either bad defense in RF or being a DH is going to hurt him

 

Trout probably has another 3 years of quality defense and another 3 where everyone still thinks he provides quality defense. Not to mention guys like Correa, Bogatds, lindor, and hopefully Buxton getting it done on offense and defense.

[DiscGolfer]

Watching him last year at the plate he looked so comfortable already and just seems like he knows what he's doing.  I don't see Sano falling victim to a sophomore slump.  Winning an MVP would be quite a feat especially with all the talent in the AL.  It'll be a fun race to watch for sure.  I don't think he'll win it this year but I'd say top 10 for sure.

[Old Twins Cap]

Like the moxie of this prediction, but sincerely doubt MS ever gets there, as excellent as he is at the plate.

 

And I hope I am wrong.

[Han Joelo]

Not that I ever liked him, but Sano has a Bonds like plate presence, to me. You can almost see it just looking at box scores.

[Han Joelo]

Ever liked Bonds, that is.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Here's to the next MVP coming from Twins Territory.. it's just that's a lot of strikeouts, man.

[Teflon]

Miguel Sano had a freakishly high (unduplicatable) .396 batting average on balls in play last year (Babe Ruth's career BABIP was .340) but Sano still only managed to hit .269 because he struck out 118 times (!) in 80 games. It's hard to envision an MVP season for Sano with a BABIP that is sure to drop 50-75 points coupled with 200+ strike outs while also trying to learn a new position.

[TRex]

 

Some might believe that Sano has some growing up to do. To me, he looks like a grown man who is ready to take this league by storm.
 

I don't think there are any maturity restrictions on the MVP award... plenty of players have won it who 'have some growing up to do' !

[DaveW]

Sano wins the MVP and Reusse's head explodes trying to knock him down off that pedestal.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Miguel Sano had a freakishly high (unduplicatable) .396 batting average on balls in play last year (Babe Ruth's career BABIP was .340) but Sano still only managed to hit .269 because he struck out 118 times (!) in 80 games. It's hard to envision an MVP season for Sano with a BABIP that is sure to drop 50-75 points coupled with 200+ strike outs while also trying to learn a new position.

Obviously this idea is contingent on him cutting down the strikeouts somewhat. I don't think that's unreasonable. Thirty-five percent is crazy.

[sane16]

 

Obviously this idea is contingent on him cutting down the strikeouts somewhat. I don't think that's unreasonable. Thirty-five percent is crazy.

It is also contingent on his team winning something besides games, and that is not likely.

[curt1965]

I'll take the field for $1,000,00 please, Alex!

[Dantes929]

I'll take Buxton but am not going to quibble.  Lets just agree that the MVP will be a Twin.     MVP for Buxton, home run title for Sano and batting title for Mauer.    This is the time of year for these kinds of thoughts.    Anyone else going to the home opener?

[Linus]

He will do it but not next year. Very glad to be able to watch him for many years.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

I'll take Buxton but am not going to quibble.  Lets just agree that the MVP will be a Twin.     MVP for Buxton, home run title for Sano and batting title for Mauer.    This is the time of year for these kinds of thoughts.    Anyone else going to the home opener?

 

For irony's sake, I'm going with Plouffe for MVP.

[tobi0040]

I am going Suzuki

[Dantes929]

 

For irony's sake, I'm going with Plouffe for MVP.

Thanks for reminding me about irony.   I forgot Nolasco for Cy Young.

[Mike Sixel]

Tough to predict anyone but Trout winning it, but I think the Astros are in the AL now, right? They have a darn good SS that I'd say has at least as good a shot as Sano does. And Machado.

 

I'd put Sano's odds at about 3-5% this year.

[Vanimal46]

*takes in a deep breath*

Ahhh.. Can you smell it? I've been waiting all winter for that sweet scent of STRONG takes! Whenever a strong take is in the air, a SCORCHING hot take is not that far behind... Which means real baseball is close! 

[operation mindcrime]

This article should've been posted on Friday.

[birddog]

Great article, Nick.  I don't necessarily like Sano's odds of winning MVP this year, but we can dream! And if we prorate his first season stats, he will put up amazing numbers that, if the Twins have the success we hope for, should at least put him into the mix with Trout and Correa. I love to watch him hit. Not since Killebrew have I been this excited to watch a Twin hit. As stated he works so many counts full, and will capitalize on mistakes. Sure he strikes out much more than we'd like to see, but even his K's are an adrenaline rush. With Plouffe and Park hitting behind him, he should see more fastballs. If he can avoid injury in RF, Twins fans are in for the season we've been dreaming about.

 

[dxpavelka]

or not

[Thrylos]

Amen.

 

And he should ship a case of expensive bubbly at Reusse's house

(a totally fitting present.)

Edited March 29, 2016 by Thrylos

[spinowner]

 

I believe that if he stays healthy, he'll outshine all other hitters in the American League on his way to a Most Valuable Player award in his first full season.

I'll say 10 MVP awards in his first 10 full seasons! (It's still ST so I'm allowed to be optimistic!)

[Champuckett]

Unless Sano improves his batting average by 30-40 points, I don't see this happening.

 

He's more of a McGwire type, boatload of home runs, mediocre average.

 

Still, it's a mini-show within a show every time he steps into the batters box.

[USAFChief]

AL MVP?

 

Pfft. Way to half step it, Nelson.

 

WORLD SERIES MVP!!1!

[DaveW]

Unless Sano improves his batting average by 30-40 points, I don't see this happening.

 

He's more of a McGwire type, boatload of home runs, mediocre average.

 

Still, it's a mini-show within a show every time he steps into the batters box.

You mean lifetime .982 ops Mark McGwire who averaged 50 HR per 162 games?

 

I will take that.