Article: 2016 Twins Bust Candidates

[DocBauer]

Well.......so much for the optimism of spring.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

 

Well.......so much for the optimism of spring.

I agree. On to more optimistic appraisals...

[Hrbowski]

Nobody.

[Thrylos]

I think that you got this 100%.

 

When your out of shape "proven closer" takes home brewing as a new hobby during the off-season and loses 5-7 mph off his peak FB and SL velocity, the writing is on the wall...

[DaveW]

 

I think that you got this 100%.

 

When your out of shape "proven closer" takes home brewing as a new hobby during the off-season and loses 5-7 mph off his peak FB and SL velocity, the writing is on the wall...

Come on man, you can claim Perkins can be a "bust" or that he has struggled, but I believe there was another thread that proved that Perkins didn't "lose" anything close to 5-7 MPH

 

As far as the home brewing bit, come on now. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that whatsoever. You might be shocked to learn that 80%+ of MLB players enjoy a beer now and then (or even more often!) Claiming that being a home brewer is a reason for him "busting" is just silly.

[Thrylos]

 

Come on man, you can claim Perkins can be a "bust" or that he has struggled, but I believe there was another thread that proved that Perkins didn't "lose" anything close to 5-7 MPH

 

As far as the home brewing bit, come on now. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that whatsoever. You might be shocked to learn that 80%+ of MLB players enjoy a beer now and then (or even more often!) Claiming that being a home brewer is a reason for him "busting" is just silly.

 

I was there this Spring.  His FB was 88-91 mph and Slider 79-83 mph.  Proof or not.  I know what the radar readings I read were.  And some of them on the fast Hammond Stadium gun.

 

Beer is fine.  If you are not overweight and ineffective as a pro athlete and if you do not chronic back issues from being overweight as a pro athlete. 

 

[Dr. Evil]

Can you be my bust candidate if I see literally zero hope for you? If so, Nolasco, Fein, Abad and Terry Ryan ...............and did I mention Nolasco?

[DaveW]

I was there this Spring. His FB was 88-91 mph and Slider 79-83 mph. Proof or not. I know what the radar readings I read were. And some of them on the fast Hammond Stadium gun.

 

Beer is fine. If you are not overweight and ineffective as a pro athlete and if you do not chronic back issues from being overweight as a pro athlete.

Come on you are better than this.

[Craig Arko]

Ask this question again in late June when it can be more based In facts than axe-grinding.

[DaveW]

Ask this question again in late June when it can be more based In facts than axe-grinding.

I don't see a whole lot of axe grinding going on personally, and don't see an issue with the thread, but to each his own I suppose.

[gil4]

 

So I think enough has been said about that trade being so terrible for the Twins.

 

I still don't like the rationale behind the trade, but the result hasn't been as painful as it could have been.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Ask this question again in late June when it can be more based In facts than axe-grinding.

Which player took up axe-grinding as an off season hobby?

[sane16]

Beer is fine.  If you are not overweight.....and if you do not chronic back issues from being overweight as a pro athlete.

I think you just described Babe Ruth.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmm.....

 

I have always liked Rosario as a prospect, but I have this irrational (imo) fear that this year is not going to go well for him. Well, I guess there are signs.....but for some reason I'm nervous about him.

[Craig Arko]

 

Which player took up axe-grinding as an off season hobby?

Jim "Paul Bunyan" Thome, of course.

[John Kelsey]

 

I've got Rosario. 

 

I wish this prediction made me happy. 

[DaveW]

Everyone wins this thread!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Everyone wins this thread!

 

So sad, but true.

[Jham]

Interesting to read back toward the end of a miserable season.  I looked at this and the "Regression Candidates" thread to see just how foreseeable this season's struggles have been.

 

Interestingly, the number 1 regression candidate, Eddie Rosario has slashed almost the same line as last season.  .267 .289 .459 to .262 .289 .421.  His slugging is down because he doesn't lead the league in triples. 

 

Many predicted a regression from Dozier and Perkins because of their 2nd half swoons.  Perkins was way right, Dozier way wrong.

 

Willinghammer predicted Jepsen's demise.  DaveW listed most of the team, and therefore was the most right.

 

Sano was somewhat debated, depending on expectations.  Arcia was mentioned as a bust candidate.

 

Duffey was commonly brought up and regressed badly.

 

Nolasco, Park, Suzuki and Murphy were all considered top candidates to bust, and really only Murphy busted.

 

Looking back, this is my top 5 busts of 2016:

 

Honorable Mentions: Tommy Milone - Was maybe one of our best overall starters last season, but ended up DFA and looking more AAAA than ever.  Lack of stuff finally caught up.  But he was a 5th starter so expectations are somewhat tempered...

 

5) Trevor May - He's been ok, but injuries and wildness give pause as to where he belongs and if he'll be good in either role.  Was supposed to be part of a solid back end.

 

4) Kyle Gibson has been bad after posting his best year and appearing to have turned a corner.  Incredibly disappointing year from Gibson thus far.

 

3) Tyler Duffey - Predicted by many, never developed a working change up.  Predictably, his superb feel for his breaking ball which allowed him to throw it on the corners at 2 speeds was not sustainable.  Recently sent down.

 

2) Glen Perkins/ Phil Hughes - Tough to put guys on because of injury, but these two were counted on to perform at a high level.  Both face very uncertain futures.  Both arguably contributed to their own issues with poor fitness and over-tinkering.

 

1) Byron Buxton - After nearly a full season, Buxton does not look any closer to being a MLB regular than he did at the end of last season.  Scary proposition for perhaps the most important player in the entire organization.

That's my top 5.  I'm sure I'm missing some from this awful season that seemingly won't end.  Most interesting thing in my book is that we were mostly wrong on our regression and bust predictions, and we're still a thousand games out of contention. 

 

[wsnydes]

 

 

That's my top 5.  I'm sure I'm missing some from this awful season that seemingly won't end.  Most interesting thing in my book is that we were mostly wrong on our regression and bust predictions, and we're still a thousand games out of contention. 

The fact that they've gotten unexpectedly good to really good seasons from guys like Nunez, Dozier, Kepler, and Polanco (smaller example) makes that whole paragraph even more interesting.  Strange game, this baseball.

[Doomtints]

#1 2016 bust - Nunez.  He has been off the roster for quite some time now.  What a slacker!  Not a fan.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interestingly, the number 1 regression candidate, Eddie Rosario has slashed almost the same line as last season. .267 .289 .459 to .262 .289 .421. His slugging is down because he doesn't lead the league in triples.

 

 

The triples were kinda the main reason folks expected Rosario to regress, no?

 

Also, how is Park not a bust? Maybe not top 5, but he has to be a considered a bust for 2016. Even if you think the wrist was a factor, you considered other injury cases as busts.

 

Also, Nolasco only failed to bust because he set expectations so low in 2014-2015. I have to imagine anyone picking him to bust were predicting a continuation of his 2014-2015 performances, which was mostly true.

[wsnydes]

 

The triples were kinda the main reason folks expected Rosario to regress, no?

Also, how is Park not a bust? Maybe not top 5, but he has to be a considered a bust for 2016. Even if you think the wrist was a factor, you considered other injury cases as busts.

Also, Nolasco only failed to bust because he set expectations so low in 2014-2015. I have to imagine anyone picking him to bust were predicting a continuation of his 2014-2015 performances, which was mostly true.

The only reason that I don't consider Park a bust is because I didn't expect much to begin with.  In some ways, he actually surpassed my expectations given how long he was with the big club.  I felt that he should have started in AAA and earned his way up, salary be damned.  

[Vanimal46]

 

The triples were kinda the main reason folks expected Rosario to regress, no?

Also, how is Park not a bust? Maybe not top 5, but he has to be a considered a bust for 2016. Even if you think the wrist was a factor, you considered other injury cases as busts.

Also, Nolasco only failed to bust because he set expectations so low in 2014-2015. I have to imagine anyone picking him to bust were predicting a continuation of his 2014-2015 performances, which was mostly true.

Park should be a bust, considering most of us predicted good things from him in the off-season... Most predictions on that thread were 20+ HRs. 

[Jham]

 

The triples were kinda the main reason folks expected Rosario to regress, no?

Also, how is Park not a bust? Maybe not top 5, but he has to be a considered a bust for 2016. Even if you think the wrist was a factor, you considered other injury cases as busts.

Also, Nolasco only failed to bust because he set expectations so low in 2014-2015. I have to imagine anyone picking him to bust were predicting a continuation of his 2014-2015 performances, which was mostly true.

On Rosario, probably.  I guess I don't see his OPS as that much of a regression.  He's been up and down, but I don't think it's fair to say he regressed this season.  He's been alright.

 

Park was listed as a bust candidate and he did bust, but I wouldn't consider him top 5.  He showed glimpses.  We've debated whether he was a high risk expensive signing or a low-risk high upside signing.  Intelligent minds disagree so, yeah, a bust, but not a giant bust yet.  Next season I think we should expect more...

Nolasco was a pleasant surprise for me.  He was not so bad we couldn't put him out there or trade him, which is actually more than I expected.  Nolasco, to me was a pleasant surprise by eating innings as a horrible starting pitcher with ok peripherals.
 

Edited August 26, 2016 by Jham

[Jham]

Here's the regression candidate thread BTW: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20999-article-regression-candidates-in-2016/

 

[jimmer]

I had Duffey (on the linked thread) and Gibson on this one but I also said we didn't really have the kind of talent on this team where playing poorly would be considered a bust.

 

 

'I'm not sure that this team has the quality of players where one could have such high expectations they would be considered busts if they perform poorly. 

Sano has high expectations.  Some have high expectations for Buxton for this year. 

Maybe Gibson?  Hear a lot of people talking about him taking the next step.'

 

Additionally, I didn't have Rosario as a bust candidate because, well, I didn't expect much from him based on the his BABIP and the triple boosting his slg%.

 

Edited August 26, 2016 by jimmer

[Boom Boom]

Kevin Jepsen.

 

The guy exceeded all expectations last year. I don't think he's really that good.

This guy nailed it. What a great baseball mind!

[TheLeviathan]

So, Aaron Hicks still the stud some of you thought?

 

No? 

[Riverbrian]

It might be a character flaw of mine (among many) but I really don't look for regression. 

 

I'm hopelessly attached to the thought of fix problem X and it can get better.

 

At least until Problem Y comes along.