Trade Kyle Gibson

[Boom Boom]

Going outside the box here, but hear me out.

 

The Twins need bullpen help, and could stand to free up a rotation spot. They have veteran starters under sizable contracts who aren't going anywhere (Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana). They also are allegedly unwilling to trade Trevor Plouffe.

 

Gibson is coming off his best year in which he pitched nearly 200 innings and enjoyed an uptick in strikeouts (although he still wasn't a strikeout pitcher). He probably has more value than Tommy Milone.

 

Could the Twins get two good relievers for Gibson and perhaps a throw-in? Would you make that deal?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Gibson looks better in the rotation than Milone personally, especially with his K rate increasing.  He's definitely tradable, though I think I'd want more than a couple relievers for him.

[Tom Froemming]

No. I'd consider guys like Gibson among the most valuable commodities. Starting pitching is extremely expensive, Gibson is still cost controlled, in his prime and an above-average starter.

 

Look at what the Braves got for Shelby Miller. I'd expect a lot more than a couple relievers for Gibby.

 

It would be much more wise for the team to just spend the money on a couple of free agent releivers. Or even just one. Tyler Clippard has been a good late-inning guy for awhile and thanks to his plus change up he his really tough as a RHP against lefties. He is coming off a down year. That could mean he's starting to decline, or it could just mean you get him at a discount. 

[DocBauer]

 

No. I'd consider guys like Gibson among the most valuable commodities. Starting pitching is extremely expensive, Gibson is still cost controlled, in his prime and an above-average starter.

 

Look at what the Braves got for Shelby Miller. I'd expect a lot more than a couple relievers for Gibby.

 

It would be much more wise for the team to just spend the money on a couple of free agent releivers. Or even just one. Tyler Clippard has been a good late-inning guy for awhile and thanks to his plus change up he his really tough as a RHP against lefties. He is coming off a down year. That could mean he's starting to decline, or it could just mean you get him at a discount. 

Yeah, I have to agree with this.

 

While I really like Gibson, and am not calling for him to be traded at this time, I do get the idea behind it and can't say the idea is a bad one. He's very solid, occasionally excellent, and there appears to still be room to improve. And, of course, he's cost controlled. The reason I could go along with a trade now, or the near future, is the presence of Berrios. And after Berrios, hopefully, Gonsalves in the next season or so. With these guys and May and Duffey already on board, I could see the Twins actually trading viable starting pitching for once.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

No. I'd consider guys like Gibson among the most valuable commodities. Starting pitching is extremely expensive, Gibson is still cost controlled, in his prime and an above-average starter.

 

Look at what the Braves got for Shelby Miller. I'd expect a lot more than a couple relievers for Gibby.

 

It would be much more wise for the team to just spend the money on a couple of free agent releivers. Or even just one. Tyler Clippard has been a good late-inning guy for awhile and thanks to his plus change up he his really tough as a RHP against lefties. He is coming off a down year. That could mean he's starting to decline, or it could just mean you get him at a discount. 

 

Gibson to Miller is a decent comp, but there are a couple of things in Miller's favor--he's 3 years younger, has better velocity, and his k-rate is 1.5/9 better than Gibson's (even if you assume Gibson matches last year's k-rate, Miller is still more than 1/9 better).  It's close, but a Gibson package should not be equal to a Miller package.

 

That being said, I would 100% trade Gibson and Nolasco to the Brewers for Will Smith, Corey Knebel, and someone from their minor league system (top 15).  Cover part of Nolasco's salary if need be, and your rotation can be Hughes, Santana, Duffey, Milone, and Berrios, with a bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May, Smith, Knebel, and whoever else wins a spot out of ST.  That's a solid if unspectacular rotation, and a bullpen with 3 guys who profile as 7-9 guys.

[HitInAPinch]

Trade an improving starter who came close to 200 innings for 2 guys that will pitch far fewer innings?  Plus a thow-in of some type? 

 

What's that old saying?  Steal from Peter to pay Paul?

[Thrylos]

From the current group of Twins' starters the two I would trade are Santana and Milone, in that order.  Based on the recent FA signings, Hughes and Santana are tradeable.  Nolasco maybe...  

[brvama]

IMO this really is not a good idea. Yes there is excess SP's but that is NOT an area of strength in top of the line quality at this time. It's just unwise to weaken a area like this to improve the BP, especially when other avenues are available. Now if we are talking about Nolasco .....

[Monkeypaws]

Sounds like a zero-sum game: "well, we weakened the rotation, but improved the bullpen." 

 

Trading your innings, strikeouts, and ERA leader from the previous season doesn't sound like a strategy for improvement, especially when was also your youngest starter.

[ashbury]

If I'm GM, I'm still in talent acquisition mode. I'm willing to cull the herd as needed, but I'm not looking to trade away young contributors. Later, when the youth has started to age and become expensive, decisions have to be made. We're not there yet, and definitely not with Gibson.

 

The only way I trade Gibson is if my talent advisors have a consensus that he will never become consistent and the good starts will always be interspersed with bad ones. Then if some other GM over-values him, I package him to obtain something I feel is better. Two-for-one. Not another darn one-for-two; that's part of how we got into 40-man glut problems a year or two ago.

[Hrbowski]

Don't trade him unless another GM blows you away.

[Bill Brown69]

 

Gibson to Miller is a decent comp, but there are a couple of things in Miller's favor--he's 3 years younger, has better velocity, and his k-rate is 1.5/9 better than Gibson's (even if you assume Gibson matches last year's k-rate, Miller is still more than 1/9 better).  It's close, but a Gibson package should not be equal to a Miller package.

 

That being said, I would 100% trade Gibson and Nolasco to the Brewers for Will Smith, Corey Knebel, and someone from their minor league system (top 15).  Cover part of Nolasco's salary if need be, and your rotation can be Hughes, Santana, Duffey, Milone, and Berrios, with a bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May, Smith, Knebel, and whoever else wins a spot out of ST.  That's a solid if unspectacular rotation, and a bullpen with 3 guys who profile as 7-9 guys.

It is absolutely crazy to go into a year without at least 7 starters that can win at the major league level if you think you are going to contend for a spot in the postseason. If there were no rules about who I would prefer Nolasco and Millone in AAA but there are rules so my bet is that if everyone is healthy out of ST then both Duffey and Berrios get at least a few starts in AAA before being recalled either due to injury or cutting bait with Nolasco or someone going to the pen.

[goulik]

I would consider trading Gibson for an upgrade at SS...

[Monkeypaws]

 

I would consider trading Gibson for an upgrade at SS...

 

Why? Escobar is good. He can field and hit, and is still yet to be 27. Some teams get lucky with a Nomar or a Jeter, or even a Correa. EE can give you good production on a budget: if anything, the Twins should extend him for 5 yrs 15 mil.

[goulik]

Why? Escobar is good. He can field and hit, and is still yet to be 27. Some teams get lucky with a Nomar or a Jeter, or even a Correa. EE can give you good production on a budget: if anything, the Twins should extend him for 5 yrs 15 mil.

If you're going to trade Gibson, you want good value for him. Eduardo Escobar is ok but he's not great and an upgrade would make our team even better. Why wouldn't I like an above average to great SS? Not a knock on Escobar...He's solid. I want a true Ace and AllStars at all the positions....

[adorduan]

 

If you're going to trade Gibson, you want good value for him. Eduardo Escobar is ok but he's not great and an upgrade would make our team even better. Why wouldn't I like an above average to great SS? Not a knock on Escobar...He's solid. I want a true Ace and AllStars at all the positions....

Well, that's realistic.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Gibson to Miller is a decent comp, but there are a couple of things in Miller's favor--he's 3 years younger, has better velocity, and his k-rate is 1.5/9 better than Gibson's (even if you assume Gibson matches last year's k-rate, Miller is still more than 1/9 better).  It's close, but a Gibson package should not be equal to a Miller package.

 

That being said, I would 100% trade Gibson and Nolasco to the Brewers for Will Smith, Corey Knebel, and someone from their minor league system (top 15).  Cover part of Nolasco's salary if need be, and your rotation can be Hughes, Santana, Duffey, Milone, and Berrios, with a bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May, Smith, Knebel, and whoever else wins a spot out of ST.  That's a solid if unspectacular rotation, and a bullpen with 3 guys who profile as 7-9 guys.

While I don't disagree on your value of Gibson versus Miller, it's mainly due to age and therefore, potential improvement and later decline.

 

Last season, Gibson struck out 6.7 per 9 in the AL. Miller struck out 7.5 per 9 in the NL.

 

Adjusted for league, those two numbers come within half a batter per nine innings. For all intents and purposes, they're close to the same guy, though one is quite a bit younger than the other.

[howieramone2]

If we trade a starting pitcher in a blockbuster type deal, it will be Berrios packaged with Polanco. Unlikely either will be a major contributor in 2016.  Our organizational  strength is power arms in the farm system. With three months left, I can't see spending much on a 2-3 year deal with a free agent, when we got Jepsen for next to nothing.  

[Boom Boom]

If we trade a starting pitcher in a blockbuster type deal, it will be Berrios packaged with Polanco. Unlikely either will be a major contributor in 2016. Our organizational strength is power arms in the farm system. With three months left, I can't see spending much on a 2-3 year deal with a free agent, when we got Jepsen for next to nothing.

Trading for a reliever mid-season from a non-contending team is much cheaper than trading for one in the offseason. Chih Wei Hu wasn't nothing, either.

[Boom Boom]

The rotation out of ST, barring a trade, injury, or another suspension, will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone, and Nolasco. If you think it won't, I've got some ocean front property you might be interested in.

 

Assuming the Twins are dead serious about not trading Plouffe, then trading Gibson for relievers could keep May as a starter and open up a spot for him or Duffey. I believe that either of those guys could be a better SP than Gibson, but your results may vary.

[Major League Ready]

 

The rotation out of ST, barring a trade, injury, or another suspension, will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone, and Nolasco. If you think it won't, I've got some ocean front property you might be interested in.

Assuming the Twins are dead serious about not trading Plouffe, then trading Gibson for relievers could keep May as a starter and open up a spot for him or Duffey. I believe that either of those guys could be a better SP than Gibson, but your results may vary.

I am sure you are right that the Twins or just about any other team would not just write of the $115M dues to Santana/Hughes and Nolasco so the options are somewhat limited.  However, I would think Duffey has at least as good a chance as Milone.  Hopefully, they give Nolasco a dozen starts to prove himself and then move him to the pen or cut him if he performs on par with 2014-15.

[adorduan]

 

I am sure you are right that the Twins or just about any other team would not just write of the $115M dues to Santana/Hughes and Nolasco so the options are somewhat limited.  However, I would think Duffey has at least as good a chance as Milone.  Hopefully, they give Nolasco a dozen starts to prove himself and then move him to the pen or cut him if he performs on par with 2014-15.

I would hope the leash is a little shorter than that for Nolasco.  6-8 starts and then if he is still bad admit you were wrong and move on.

[DaveW]

Why on earth would you want to even waste 6-8 starts on Nolasco if he hasn't "earned" them? Those 6-8 starts could sink the team come "stretch time" (assuming the Twins want to aim for the playoffs in 2016 of course)

 

Stick him in the pen, if he by some miracle starts contributing, then you think about giving him a shot at the rotation, but off the bat? No way, he is behind: Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Duffey, Milone, May, Berrios for guys who should be getting looks as a SP these days.

[Linus]

Why on earth would you want to even waste 6-8 starts on Nolasco if he hasn't "earned" them? Those 6-8 starts could sink the team come "stretch time" (assuming the Twins want to aim for the playoffs in 2016 of course)

 

Stick him in the pen, if he by some miracle starts contributing, then you think about giving him a shot at the rotation, but off the bat? No way, he is behind: Santana, Gibson, Hughes, Duffey, Milone, May, Berrios for guys who should be getting looks as a SP these days.

I agree - this should be the plan.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand trading Kyle Gibson as a good idea. He's good, he's youngish, he's not expensive. I guess if you get a great RP, a good starting C under control for 3+ years, and a prospect, sure, I'd consider that......but that's not happening.

[tobi0040]

Gibson is a top 2-3 pitcher on this team and controlled for I believe four more years. 

 

You have Bastardo out there on the free agent market. I am signing him and keeping Gibson.  Moving him for even two relievers would be silly.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the Twins should be trying to move any of their cost controlled starters. Their strength last year and this year is the number of pitchers that can step in and pitch at number 4 or 5 starter level. Many teams when faced with injury have to throw a replacement level pitcher whose performance isn't near that level.

 

The difference between the Tigers and the Twins last year may have been that depth. The Tigers needed 37 starts from Greene (6.88), Lobstein (5.93) and Boyd (6.57). The Twins had much better depth in May and Duffey.

 

They will need at least 7 and maybe 8 starters with double digit starts next year. They can't place 5 guys in the rotation and feel they can trade the rest away. I would only seek to trade Nolasco, Hughes or Santana because their age makes them more likely to be injured and the contract relief will be valuable when trying to add players in the summer or next winter.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Gibson can become a free agent in 2020. He's eligible for arbitration in 2017.

 

Both strategies of "win now" and "build for the future" are secure with Gibson in the starting rotation.

 

The Twins should build their bullpen, short-term, via free agency, non-roster invites, minor league contracts, bailing wire, and duct tape. I will trust Terry Ryan to find cost-effective options in April and May of 2016 like he did with the April-May 2015 versions of J.R. Graham and Aaron Thompson.

 

Two options remain by mid-season:

 

A. The 2016 versions of Graham and Thompson don't implode due to overuse.

B. The Chattanooga Choo-Choo/Rochester Calvary brings sturdy young reinforcements as Burdi, Meyer, Chargois, or Jones figure it all out down on the farm. One or two of those guys are bound to click.

 

DON'T trade Gibson for a two-month fix. Everyone's for sale in the MLB, but not unless the competition beats down the door for Gibbie. Even then, sell high.

 

[birddog]

I am probably a minority here, but I like TR's patience in not unloading SP for RP. If we go to spring training with the current roster of pitching, I'm fine with that. ST will sort it all out and the first team to have a SP go down in April would offer much more then than now. Gibson is worth much more than two decent RP, so let's see if Burdi and the other hard throwers who put up good numbers in the AFL are ready.

 

If we must give Nolasco another shot, no more than 4-5 starts to either have another team take him off our hands or for the Twins to decide to eat his contract.

[tobi0040]

 

Gibson can become a free agent in 2020. He's eligible for arbitration in 2017.

 

Both strategies of "win now" and "build for the future" are secure with Gibson in the starting rotation.

 

The Twins should build their bullpen, short-term, via free agency, non-roster invites, minor league contracts, bailing wire, and duct tape. I will trust Terry Ryan to find cost-effective options in April and May of 2016 like he did with the April-May 2015 versions of J.R. Graham and Aaron Thompson.

 

Two options remain by mid-season:

 

A. The 2016 versions of Graham and Thompson don't implode due to overuse.

B. The Chattanooga Choo-Choo/Rochester Calvary brings sturdy young reinforcements as Burdi, Meyer, Chargois, or Jones figure it all out down on the farm. One or two of those guys are bound to click.

 

DON'T trade Gibson for a two-month fix. Everyone's for sale in the MLB, but not unless the competition beats down the door for Gibbie. Even then, sell high.

 

We lost Jones in the Rule 5.

 

But to me outside of a free agent fix for the pen, the rest is a lot of hoping and waiting.  That has been the bullpen strategy for as long as I can remember. 

 

Not acting in free agency is why you panic and trade Ramos for Capps. Or consider moving someone like Plouffe or Gibson for a reliever.  I don't see the Twins moving Gibson but I could actually see them talking themselves into Plouffe.  This is a self made problem.