Is Adam Walker UNDERrated, or OVERrated?

[jsteve96]

Adam Walker is a 4 time Home run champ in his particular league. He is a back to back home run derby champ while the competition wasn't even close. Adam Walker in his 3 full seasons has averaged 28 home runs and 103 RBIS per season. Walker has been very dependable playing in 394 of his teams 414 regular season games over the last 3 years. The problem with Walker; his Strike out and Walk percentages. his walk rate has increase from 5.6 to 7.9 to 9.1 over his 3 full seasons, if Walker continues to increase it and it gets to 10% Fangraphs would consider that to be "Above Average". His K%, however has increased as well from 20.8 to 28.2 to 34.8 over the past 3 years. In a weird 2nd half in 2015 Walker also showed potential speed with 11SBs in 13 tries. with all that being said i think that Adam Walker is certainly underrated by many people. Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline both have him at a 45 future value.... what do you think, Is he Underrated or Overrated?

[goulik]

Purely based on numbers, I say under rated.

[Craig Arko]

Yes.

 

In before the rush...

[BoomBoom]

Would love to know what his teammates and coaches think on that subject?  Truly.  If someone could find a way to word it to get a true response from the likes of Dougie Baseball; Chad Allen; Jake Mauer; Tommy Watkins; Jim Dwyer; Buxton; Polanco; Kepler; Sano; Turner; all the pitchers; etc. etc. - It would be nice to know his value in the eyes of his everyday family.  That's really what matters.

[dgwills]

Well... I tried to think of someone who strikes out a lot in the majors and still has some success. Chris Carter comes to mind. He had about a 28 percent K rate through the minors and in AA ball as well.  34.8 percent in AA for Walker does not look good and there is not going to be a lot, if any comparisons to that. 

So I guess he's overrated, but I'm still hopeful.

[jsteve96]

 

Well... I tried to think of someone who strikes out a lot in the majors and still has some success. Chris Carter comes to mind. He had about a 28 percent K rate through the minors and in AA ball as well.  34.8 percent in AA for Walker does not look good and there is not going to be a lot, if any comparisons to that. 

So I guess he's overrated, but I'm still hopeful.

comparison's just don't work out for some people. If K% decided how a player played then Sano played pretty bad in 2015

[BoomBoom]

 

Well... I tried to think of someone who strikes out a lot in the majors and still has some success. Chris Carter comes to mind. He had about a 28 percent K rate through the minors and in AA ball as well.  34.8 percent in AA for Walker does not look good and there is not going to be a lot, if any comparisons to that. 

So I guess he's overrated, but I'm still hopeful.

Not a bad comparison, but you also can't find many other comparisons who have led their leagues in HRs and RBI and Total Bases and Extra Base Hits for 3 consecutive years either - Who failed?  I'm hopeful along with you.

[Kwak]

 

Well... I tried to think of someone who strikes out a lot in the majors and still has some success. Chris Carter comes to mind. He had about a 28 percent K rate through the minors and in AA ball as well.  34.8 percent in AA for Walker does not look good and there is not going to be a lot, if any comparisons to that. 

So I guess he's overrated, but I'm still hopeful.

Kris Bryant struck-out 199 times for the Cubs (and he missed the first two weeks!)--and no one was complaining, or recommending he return to AAA!

[gunnarthor]

I think he's pretty overrated by Twins fans.  Until he fixes his huge plate discipline problem, he's not going to produce at the ML level.  Klaw said he was close to a "non-prospect" b/c of the strike outs.  While others haven't been as harsh, it's a formidable problem.

[RedBull34]

I'm extraordinarily concerned about his K%.  Even Mark Reynolds didn't strike out this much in the minors.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7619&position=1B/3B

[jsteve96]

 

I think he's pretty overrated by Twins fans.  Until he fixes his huge plate discipline problem, he's not going to produce at the ML level.  Klaw said he was close to a "non-prospect" b/c of the strike outs.  While others haven't been as harsh, it's a formidable problem.

 

there were 6 hitters in the second half that had enough at bats to qualify that had 30% K rate or above... 5 of the 6 were at least 13% better than the league average hitter. striking out a lot doesn't hurt if you make consistent hard contact when you hit it.

[Eris]

 

Well... I tried to think of someone who strikes out a lot in the majors and still has some success. Chris Carter comes to mind. He had about a 28 percent K rate through the minors and in AA ball as well.  34.8 percent in AA for Walker does not look good and there is not going to be a lot, if any comparisons to that. 

 

Rob Deer seems to be a good comparison.  He hit 0.220 with an OPS of 0.766.  His career %K was 31.2%.  His minor league stats (%K and BA) were comparable to his major league stats.  His major league career was 14 years.  I think Walker is much better (or at least has significant potential to be much better) than Deer.

[Secondary User]

To the people who keep pointing to Sano and Bryant.  The K totals those guys had are in the major leagues.  they never struck out at the rates that Walker is in the minor leagues

 

And both of them walked a ton

[jsteve96]

 

To the people who keep pointing to Sano and Bryant.  The K totals those guys had are in the major leagues.  they never struck out at the rates that Walker is in the minor leagues

 

And both of them walked a ton

 

Walker's BB% has been increasing every year and is above average now, as more pitchers recognize his power he'll walk more. 

[TNLooky2015]

Adam Brett Walker II @walkoff28

All about it since day one!!⚾ #TBT #LoveThisGame #WhenBaseballisLife #DWDB https://instagram.com/p/9cDjpEO721/
 

Gotta love the Slugger uniform on ABW II.  Throw back Thursday's - Found the above instagram photo on the Twins Pipeline Twitter section.  Maybe it is his destiny to be a Slugger. Lol.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes.

In before the rush...

 

This is probably the best summary.  He doesn't get a lot of recognition in prospect circles because of the K and BB rates, but he's continued to produce, causing some (particularly in these forums) to really latch on to him. 

 

I'm pretty encouraged by the increasing walk rate, and I'm hoping at some point, he figures out enough of it to see that K rate come down a bit.  I know the comp isn't ideal, but Vlad Guerrero was a free swinging slugger that Kd a lot, but even he had a career of roughly 1k/8 AB.   He was striking out in the minors at a bit higher rate (about 20%), so I think there's room for hope.  Walker, however, sits at 34%.  That number has to come down b/c in the majors, if he doesn't figure it out, you'll see this in the 40s.

 

Walker is what he is.  A high ceiling prospect with elite power and a big question mark as to whether or not his style of play will translate to the majors. The fact that he did what he did in AA this year is pretty encouraging, but not enough to overrate him.

[Mike Sixel]

He's OVER rated by some people here, and UNDER rated by those that say he has no chance, so YES is actually the right answer.

[dbminn]

If another team was looking at a trade involving Walker, they'd classify him as "high power upside/high risk". MLB has Walker as the Twins' 10th best prospect and here at TD he's ranked 8th. Seems reasonable to me. At this point, he's shown no indication that he will perform like Miguel Sano or Kris Bryant.

 

Question is, do we wait around to see how he develops or do we include him in a trade to improve the current MLB team? I have no problems trading him for the right deal (C or SS, not a RP). Fine with me if he turns out great for another team as long as the Twins get what they need.

 

 

[markos]

 

Walker's BB% has been increasing every year and is above average now, as more pitchers recognize his power he'll walk more. 

Walker's AA BB% may be above-average compared to the MLB walk rate, but it is still below-average relative to the Southern League. Almost everyone walks more in the minors than in the majors because the pitchers generally don't have a good control, so it is best to try to avoid making direct minor-to-major stat comparisons. Context matters.

 

Regarding the question for the thread, I honestly don’t know how to rate Walker right now, which makes it hard to judge if he is ‘overrated’ or ‘underrated’. So much of his value depends on how his hit tool will end up playing in the majors, and that is really hard to know without actually facing major league pitchers. The example I keep thinking about in situations like this is Oswaldo Arcia. Across the board in the minors, Arcia raked. And overall, his rate stats were also solid - certainly better than Walker’s. Back in 2013 I would have bet a lot of money that Arcia was going to hit. And most of the experts agreed. There were a few quiet questions about perhaps some contact issues, but most of the agreement was that he would hit. But as we all saw, after a few months in the majors it became very apparent that he had massive holes in his swing, a poor approach, and the inability to change either.

 

Personally, I don’t think the odds of Walker becoming an average or better major-leaguer are good. But I’m certainly not very confident about that, since so much of his future value is dependant on how he is able to respond and adjust to major-league pitching. And projecting the hit tool is notoriously difficult to do. In Walker’s favor, he will have a wide margin for error if he is able to maintain a .200+ ISO.

[HitInAPinch]

K's vsBB's.  meh, he's still learning.

[2wins87]

I think there are two comparable players that are a little ahead of him development-wise.  These are Joey Gallo of the Rangers and Steven Moya of the Tigers.  They have different minor league track records, but all have somewhat similar size, power, and hitting profiles.  They're in a little bit different places on the spectrum of plate discipline and contact issues; this site (which unfortunately seems to have broken in June) has data on things like whiff%, in-zone and out-of-zone swing%, etc., which is interesting to compare.  Gallo seems to have better plate discipline but worse contact issues than Walker, and Moya seems to be the other way around.  For comparison, Sano seems to have both better plate discipline and better contact rates, which makes sense.  Gallo was much younger than the other two in AA so is maybe a less fair comparison.  Neither of them have very good numbers in the majors so far, but both are good enough that they'll get plenty of chances to improve.  Walker should too, but may have a harder time breaking in due to stiffer competition on the Twins roster.

 

I would also say that the improvement in his walk rate has been under-appreciated.  I personally don't give him a great shot at being much more than replacement level in the majors, but he's working hard on his approach at the plate and it seems to be showing.  We ought to give him credit for that.

 

 

I think he's appropriately rated on average, but has been one of the most divisive prospects in the forum.  People who just look at the strikeouts and say he has no shot against major league pitchers are underrating him.  People who just look at the home-runs and expect him to continue to do that in the majors are probably overrating him.  The majors are definitely tougher on guys who rely on one big tool, but he will hit still hit home runs and he will still strike out a lot.  I think it's really hard to say whether he'll be able to strike enough of a balance, but right around 8-10 among Twins' prospects is a reasonable rating.

[2wins87]

 

I think he's pretty overrated by Twins fans.  Until he fixes his huge plate discipline problem, he's not going to produce at the ML level.  Klaw said he was close to a "non-prospect" b/c of the strike outs.  While others haven't been as harsh, it's a formidable problem.

 

He may get overrated by some, but at the same time, it's easier to dismiss him in a system with a lot of other strong prospects.  Steven Moya is a guy with a similar profile in a weak system, and he gets a lot more attention due to the lack of other prospects around him, so I'm not so sure Walker doesn't get a little underrated nationally.  Moya isn't in the top 100 at mlb.com and I don't think Walker should be either, but Moya was rated at #100 before the season.  Moya doesn't seem any more likely to succeed than Walker and he was only a few months younger in AA, so this seems like a pretty big overrating to me.

 

[big dog]

 

Walker's BB% has been increasing every year and is above average now, as more pitchers recognize his power he'll walk more. 

I'm pretty sure ABW's power is not a secret to pitchers on the opposing teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Walker has a two-fold problem and they're linked: strikeouts and walks.

 

He made small strides with the walk problem this season, which is mildly encouraging... an isoD of .070 isn't terrible.

 

But then there's the complete lack of BA, which diminishes that isoD.

 

Based on the stats, it appears the guy often doesn't know what pitch is coming at him. That's a huge problem, one that means he will not succeed at the MLB level until it is fixed.

 

He's also 24 years old so there's time to make small improvements in that area. To me, strikeouts are a symptom, not the disease. The disease is not knowing what a pitcher is going to throw and the hitter swinging from his heels, hoping he makes big contact. Sure, big contact is nice but if a hitter can't recognize A+ or AA pitches, he's going to be embarrassed by the movement on MLB pitches.

 

Closing your eyes and swinging really hard is not an approach that will succeed at the MLB level.

[Thrylos]

Cannot tell "Under" or "Over" if you do not give a baseline

 

Where do I see Walker?   Somewhere in the:

 

Steve Balboni, Pete Incaviglia, Rob Deer, Jay Buhner

 

spectrum.  And it depends on taking some balls.

 

I don't think that he can be a higher average hitter because he will always pull the ball.  Whether he will be a .229/.293/.451 hitter (Balboni) or a .254/.359/.494 hitter (Buhner) or in-between, has yet to be determined, because he is still developing, but pretty much this is his range...

[DocBauer]

Yes.

 

Production, and proven producers are to be taken seriously and are of great value. (Anywhere) Some bash a stat like RBI, for instance, in regard to measuring a player's performance. Which makes sense from the standpoint that there are multiple factors involved in a player's total production. But if anyone could produce big numbers and lead their team and/or league, then everyone would do it.

 

Walker is a legit talent and legit producer. And he should be commended and anticipated as a result.

 

But he's also not a bad athlete. Sooner or later, he needs to play at least a decent OF. I wish I knew for certain, buts reports on his defense are not complimentary. And sooner or later, preferably sooner, the contact numbers simply have to improve. Would he be dangerous, productive and valuable hitting in the .240's at the ML level with a ton of SO's with 30+ doubles and 30-ish HR's? Absolutely! But that Avg and that production will never happen at the ML level without contact improvement.

 

So......yes.

[Rosterman]

It all boils down to adjusting to major league pitching and how well he listens and works with the coaches. Sano strikes out a lot, but he is open to comment and looks like he will work hard at his craft. AAA will be an awakening for Walker, and the majors even moreso. You can fool other teams for a while (look at Parmelee when he came up in September), but you have to be willing to make adjustments and trust the advice of others. Even natural talent guys like Mauer can miss the ball (and season) at times.

[Sano Doubter]

I would say that he is under rated.

[Shane Wahl]

We'll see with some more AA seasoning for half the year. Then a stop in AAA.

[jokin]

 

We'll see with some more AA seasoning for half the year. Then a stop in AAA.

 

You really think they will hold him back from debuting immediately in Rochester? And then seeing how that goes, first?