When to Throw In The Towel?

Loosey · August 4, 2015

This topic sort of piggybacks off of @Platoons from last night:

It's August 4th and the Twins are tied for the 2nd wild card spot! WooHoo!

That is how I think most of us thought we would feel in April if we got to say that statement on August 4th. However, realistically it feels like we are on a sinking ship. Yes, a snapshot of the standings show the Twins in a great spot, but if I were buying futures on the the rest of Twins season I would be shorting. The teams nipping on their heels all got significantly better at the trade deadline while mortgaging some of their future. The Twins got Kevin Jepsen, whose debut was nothing short of terrible.

Today they sit 3 games above .500 with a 54-51 record. Take the month of May out of there though and this is a team that is 10 games under .500. Outside of May their record is 34-44. Pretty much exactly what most thought this team would do this season. 5-11 since the All-Star break and this team looks like it is ready to implode.

Now going back to my topic's title, When to Throw In The Towel. I think most of you are reading this would say now, while more casual fans would want them to play it out and try to hang on to that last playoff spot. Realistically, I think it is over. The reinforcements aren't coming and the teams behind them aren't going to lay down. Even if they manage to play .500 over the next 2 months I don't think that is enough with how well Toronto and Baltimore are player, even the Rangers are sneaking up there.

That being said, I think the first few months of this season gave Twins fans a taste of what is to come in the future years if the roster is managed correctly. And that management should start now. If the Twins don't make it out of this road trip still in full control of one of the Wild Card spots it is time to throw in the towel and rebuild for next year. It sucks! I know, I was hoping this team could make things interesting into September but that doesn't appear to be the case.

There are players on this roster that would be useful for a playoff push, but since that isn't happening here is how I would "throw in the towel' and get an understanding of what this team has for next year when I do believe they will be in contention in September.

#1) Find a spot for Arcia on the 25 man roster: He is out of options next year and will not be back in Rochester whether the Twins think they can slip in through waivers or not. He has too much talent and will be picked up if that happens. Replace Robinson with Arcia and let him do "Arcia things". This guy was once one of the best hitting prospects in this organization and few struggles and discipline issues got him in the Twins doghouse. Let's see if can play well for a 2 month stretch in big leagues. If he can't then I guess a change of scene might be a good thing. If he can, great! The that will give the Twins a lot of Outfield options to open next season. But lets let him get his 2016 tryout started now instead of March.

#2) Pelfrey: Pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise this season. As much hate as he receives he really has actually done well. However, he is a FA after this season and is blocking some younger talent that is more likely to be part of the long-term future. To me is the perfect waiver trade guy. Reminds me of the reverse of the Carl Pavano trade. Perhaps his decent pitching here as of late could snag the Twins a young live bullpen arm in return.

#3) Get May back in the rotation: I know bullpen is one of the three weak spots, but since we are throwing in the towel lets weaken it some more and actually make use of one of the future starters in his actual future role.

#4) Strengthen the pen: I know I just said to weaken it, but I think putting Duffey in there and calling up Berrios could make it quite better. Boyer gets DFA'd in the process. Addition by subtraction!

#5) Get an extended look at Polanco: Nunez doesn't need to take a roster spot. He should not be part of the future. Polanco might be. Is he a shortstop? Let's find out! Put him out there and let him play every day for the next two months. In his couple spot starts he has looked like he can hold his own.

These moves will drastically change the outlook of the roster but it is the right thing to do for the future. The worst that could happen is the Twins lose A LOT of games down the stretch. Or the flip side, possibly this infusion of young talent might spark something and cause them to accidentally stay in this thing a while longer.

theBOMisthebomb · August 4, 2015

They still have a puncher's chance at the WC spot in a relatively weak American League so it's silly to give up now. If Joey Mauer and one other bat and Perkins turn it around, who knows what could happen. At the same time I'd like to see them continue to inject the young guns (Buxton in particular) full time. Sort of a mix of staying competitive for the WC and see if these young names we've heard for years are legitimate. Best of both worlds. To cash in their chips and lay down and die now would be foolish.

Mike Sixel · August 4, 2015

Well, some of those moves actually probably do both, play young guys and make the team better.

Berrios for Boyer for sure helps. Duffey to the bullpen for whomever, helps. Arcia for Robinson helps.

Badsmerf · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

Loosey · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

I wouldn't say it is cherry picking, it was the outlier. The rest of the months align more with how this team was expected to perform this season. I would say they are improving from prior years, but this team really is about a 8-10 games under .500 type of team.

Winston Smith · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

They are 24-32 since June 1st so that is no longer a small sample size (56 games) and more likely what they are.

IMO most of these changes will make the team better, now and in the long run.

Loosey · August 4, 2015

They are 24-32 since June 1st so that is no longer a small sample size (56 games) and more likely what they are.

IMO most of these changes will make the team better, now and in the long run.

I agree. I should have maybe called it throwing in the towel on their current roster. Since technically, the young guys could make them better and I didn't even add Buxton be recalled to the list of items since I assume they just wait until September to do that.

Platoon · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.
You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

Maybe we need to be optimistic pragmatists? Or pragmatic optimists?

Halsey Hall · August 4, 2015

I'd be looking to trade Plouffe right now as he'd bring back a decent return. Play Sano at 3rd the rest of the way to see what we have there. Find out if he's a lifetime dh or not. Eduardo's can spell him at 3rd. Arcia in at dh to also see how he does.

We won't be winning any wild card this year, but could possibly end up only a few games under .500, so let's see just what we have to plan for next season.

Mike Sixel · August 4, 2015

Plouffe won't be traded until the off season now.......

d-mac · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

One of these things is not like the other.

http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100612053841/muppet/images/7/7e/Susanthesethings.jpg

April: 10-12

May: 20-7

June: 11-17

July: 12-13

Aug: 1-2

Why is it cherry picking to remove the statistical outlier? They are -6 in run diff. The only thing that is keeping them in the hunt is their anomalous month of May. I think that this team is finally getting exposed as a paper tiger.

jimbo92107 · August 4, 2015

The two areas that need the most help are hitting and pitching.

Hitting: Jorge Polanco and Oswaldo Arcia. Put them in and play them for the rest of the season. They're both supposed to have good bats; Polanco is supposed to be a decent SS, and Arcia needs work at corner OF, but can DH and PH. Plus, Arcia is the best bat in the Twins system to sit behind Sano against rightie pitchers.

Pitching: We all agree that Blaine Boyer isn't getting it done anymore, and Duensing hasn't looked much better. Replace them with Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Extended looks for both, no matter what (throwing in the towel).

Beyond that, other promotions and shuffling should favor just the younger, more promising players, not more shuffling of veteran retreads. I'd get Max Kepler to AAA right now, working on OF and 1B, then look at a September call-up. It's still too hard to imagine moving Joe Mauer to the bench, but at some point you've got to get more power at 1B.

I would also move batting coach Tommy Watkins to AA Chattanooga. He was the last coach that had Adam Brett Walker's K rate at 20 percent. Whatever he was doing worked much better that what Chad Allen is doing. Results have to count for coaches, too.

Kirby_waved_at_me · August 4, 2015

The Twins can get more for Plouffe dealing him in the offseason, anyway, right? There's a larger pool of players eligible to be traded then compared to today...

d-mac · August 4, 2015

I would also move batting coach Tommy Watkins to AA Chattanooga. He was the last coach that had Adam Brett Walker's K rate at 20 percent. Whatever he was doing worked much better that what Chad Allen is doing. Results have to count for coaches, too.

ABW is, who he is. He's got no protection in the line-up and he's finally being exposed. The other hitters did just fine with Allen. Besides, isn't this his first year as AA hitting coach?

Kwak · August 4, 2015

The players threw in the towel--or did you miss the previous homestand? In fact every year from '11 on has indicated a team that was "below par" at/ 1 week after the ALG--and then implodes--just like this team. The players are breathing fire starting the season then when reality of the Front Office hits them in the eye, they pack it in. 2015 won't be any different. If the FO indifference continues, players will focus solely on individual statistics that will "pay them off handsomely--like HRs. Then this team will be losers for years.

Otto von Ballpark · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

I thought that too, but it seems somewhat notable for the Twins. The 4 teams ahead of us in the AL collectively only have 1 month below .500 (Yankees in May). We have 3, every month so far except May. Even when we were leading by a few games recently, we really weren't in the same class as those teams.

However, among the current wild card contenders, Toronto also has 3 months below .500 and Baltimore 2, although our .393 June winning percentage was the worst among those contenders. Actually the only teams to post calendar month winning percentages below .400 in the AL so far are:

Minnesota

Tampa

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland (April)

Texas (April)

Oakland (twice, April & May)

I think the implication is that the Twins talent level might be closer to that group than the contender group above.

That said, I still don't advocate throwing in the towel, and was among those disappointed with our trade deadline approach because we weren't aggressive enough.

d-mac · August 4, 2015

The Twins can get more for Plouffe dealing him in the offseason, anyway, right? There's a larger pool of players eligible to be traded then compared to today...

I would assume so, for that type of trade. Let's go get a legit catcher. I don't think Arcia has a place on this team long-term. Rosario, Kepler, Hicks, Buxton are all much better fielders. Arcia fields as bad Elmon Young (Delmon without the D) and has yet to prove that he has enough plate discipline to stick in the majors. Maybe we can package him with Plouffe and Milone for something? Probably doesn't have a ton of value, but some team will probably take a chance on his power.

Squirrel · August 4, 2015

I keep reading "take out the month of May." That is 25% of the games played so far. Sure it was a great month, but take out the month of June instead where they went 11-17 and their record is way better. Cherry picking numbers to make a team look better or worse is cherry picking no matter what you do.

You want to throw in the towel be my guest. I choose to be optimistic in my life. This team has talent, enough to stay competitive until the end. I think it's a long shot they make the playoffs, but I'm not throwing in the towel when they actually have a shot.

I agree that it's too early to throw in the towel. But I also agree that to remain competitive through the rest of the season ... whether or not they make the playoffs ... they need to make some moves. They've been better than I thought they would be this season, which gives me hope. So why not make some moves to shore up some obvious areas to at least remain competitive? It just feels like the FO are the ones throwing in the towel by 'standing pat' mostly (Jepsen aside). But ... it ain't over 'til it's over and something could yet be coming.

twinsnorth49 · August 4, 2015

Not time to throw in the towel, just time to try and make this team better with what they already have. It's not gut check time for the players, it's gut check time for management.

SwainZag · August 4, 2015

The two areas that need the most help are hitting and pitching.

Hitting: Jorge Polanco and Oswaldo Arcia. Put them in and play them for the rest of the season. They're both supposed to have good bats; Polanco is supposed to be a decent SS, and Arcia needs work at corner OF, but can DH and PH. Plus, Arcia is the best bat in the Twins system to sit behind Sano against rightie pitchers.

Pitching: We all agree that Blaine Boyer isn't getting it done anymore, and Duensing hasn't looked much better. Replace them with Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers. Extended looks for both, no matter what (throwing in the towel).

Beyond that, other promotions and shuffling should favor just the younger, more promising players, not more shuffling of veteran retreads. I'd get Max Kepler to AAA right now, working on OF and 1B, then look at a September call-up. It's still too hard to imagine moving Joe Mauer to the bench, but at some point you've got to get more power at 1B.

I would also move batting coach Tommy Watkins to AA Chattanooga. He was the last coach that had Adam Brett Walker's K rate at 20 percent. Whatever he was doing worked much better that what Chad Allen is doing. Results have to count for coaches, too.

I think it's obvious at least defensively Polonco isn't ready yet. I can see him up in September, but I'm guessing for now they want to give him everyday reps while they can. I think almost everyone would like to see Arcia up in platoon against RHP and PH situations and I believe it will come, but right now they feel content on giving him everyday AB's, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him sooner than later.

I would assume it would be pretty low chance we see Berrios before September. IMO, having him keep starting in AAA, where he has only been a short time, is better than him in the pen pitching a handful of innings per week. There are several candidates that IMO should have replaced Boyer months ago.

Shane Wahl · August 4, 2015

This topic sort of piggybacks off of @Platoons from last night:

It's August 4th and the Twins are tied for the 2nd wild card spot! WooHoo!

That is how I think most of us thought we would feel in April if we got to say that statement on August 4th. However, realistically it feels like we are on a sinking ship. Yes, a snapshot of the standings show the Twins in a great spot, but if I were buying futures on the the rest of Twins season I would be shorting. The teams nipping on their heels all got significantly better at the trade deadline while mortgaging some of their future. The Twins got Kevin Jepsen, whose debut was nothing short of terrible.

Today they sit 3 games above .500 with a 54-51 record. Take the month of May out of there though and this is a team that is 10 games under .500. Outside of May their record is 34-44. Pretty much exactly what most thought this team would do this season. 5-11 since the All-Star break and this team looks like it is ready to implode.

Now going back to my topic's title, When to Throw In The Towel. I think most of you are reading this would say now, while more casual fans would want them to play it out and try to hang on to that last playoff spot. Realistically, I think it is over. The reinforcements aren't coming and the teams behind them aren't going to lay down. Even if they manage to play .500 over the next 2 months I don't think that is enough with how well Toronto and Baltimore are player, even the Rangers are sneaking up there.

That being said, I think the first few months of this season gave Twins fans a taste of what is to come in the future years if the roster is managed correctly. And that management should start now. If the Twins don't make it out of this road trip still in full control of one of the Wild Card spots it is time to throw in the towel and rebuild for next year. It sucks! I know, I was hoping this team could make things interesting into September but that doesn't appear to be the case.

There are players on this roster that would be useful for a playoff push, but since that isn't happening here is how I would "throw in the towel' and get an understanding of what this team has for next year when I do believe they will be in contention in September.

#1) Find a spot for Arcia on the 25 man roster: He is out of options next year and will not be back in Rochester whether the Twins think they can slip in through waivers or not. He has too much talent and will be picked up if that happens. Replace Robinson with Arcia and let him do "Arcia things". This guy was once one of the best hitting prospects in this organization and few struggles and discipline issues got him in the Twins doghouse. Let's see if can play well for a 2 month stretch in big leagues. If he can't then I guess a change of scene might be a good thing. If he can, great! The that will give the Twins a lot of Outfield options to open next season. But lets let him get his 2016 tryout started now instead of March.

#2) Pelfrey: Pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise this season. As much hate as he receives he really has actually done well. However, he is a FA after this season and is blocking some younger talent that is more likely to be part of the long-term future. To me is the perfect waiver trade guy. Reminds me of the reverse of the Carl Pavano trade. Perhaps his decent pitching here as of late could snag the Twins a young live bullpen arm in return.

#3) Get May back in the rotation: I know bullpen is one of the three weak spots, but since we are throwing in the towel lets weaken it some more and actually make use of one of the future starters in his actual future role.

#4) Strengthen the pen: I know I just said to weaken it, but I think putting Duffey in there and calling up Berrios could make it quite better. Boyer gets DFA'd in the process. Addition by subtraction!

#5) Get an extended look at Polanco: Nunez doesn't need to take a roster spot. He should not be part of the future. Polanco might be. Is he a shortstop? Let's find out! Put him out there and let him play every day for the next two months. In his couple spot starts he has looked like he can hold his own.

These moves will drastically change the outlook of the roster but it is the right thing to do for the future. The worst that could happen is the Twins lose A LOT of games down the stretch. Or the flip side, possibly this infusion of young talent might spark something and cause them to accidentally stay in this thing a while longer.

I agree completely with these five things!

nicksaviking · August 4, 2015

If throwing in the towel means playing youngsters over vets, they should have thrown in the towel last offseason.

I'm of the mind that playing the youngsters isn't throwing in the towel, but just the more stable way of making your team a year-in and year-out contender. Even if it meant losing a few extra games (and judging by the look of it, it wouldn't) I'd rather see a rotation of Hughes, May, Gibson, Berrios and Duffy/flavor of the week with any number of RFs instead of Hunter.

I like most of the vets too, but they aren't as fun to watch as the kids.

ShouldaCouldaWoulda · August 4, 2015

Rest of the season winning% projections from Fangraphs....WORST in the entire AL at .450.

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=current

I was fine with the Twins not making any major moves at the deadline, as long as they were going to maximize their current options within the system. I assumed that would be the plan. Cut off the weakest links on the bench and bullpen. That starts with what I personally feel is an obvious Arcia up and Robinson out, and Berrios up to the pen (limits his innings, helps the MLB club which is most important, and gets his feet wet for starting in MLB next year) and get rid of Boyer and or Fien.

What would a platoon of Hicks and Arcia look like offensively? Sano and Plouffe could also get breaks vs RH's and have Arcia DH those games, so that Hicks still gets to play more often. There is other ways to get Acria's bat in the lineup vs RH's, but platooning with Hicks often (NOT always), and simply resting Plouffe or Sano will get Acrica several days in the lineup, without really effecting Hicks, Plouffe, or Sano.

I am ok with Berrios starting in AAA for a few more starts to get experience, I guess. But, I want pitching for the Twins ASAP, and I don't care if its in the bullpen or rotation. Just am guessing that he will have some sort of inning limit, so putting him in the pen would solve that. There really isn't anything to lose by doing this. If he fails, big deal. Berrios has clearly displayed excellent makeup and attitude. Failure won't ruin him. And, if he does falter with the Twins, well, its either we fail with him or fail the way we have. Obviously the upside reward is much much greater and more likely.

Perkins, May, Jepsen, and Berrios at the end of games sound good? What if Meyer somehow figures it out in September up here? I am fine with either May or Berrios going to the rotation, but the Twins seem committed to giving veterans and higher priced guys with little upside those opportunities.

jimmer · August 4, 2015

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise and has done well.

TheLeviathan · August 4, 2015

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise and has done well.

Well, it might be relative to expectations. I thought he'd just cash another season's worth of ill-gotten checks while being injured or awful and he's been not-awful. So there's that, but it's more a reflection of low expectations than quality play.

stringer bell · August 4, 2015

It is not now time to throw in the towel. Don't forget that two wild card teams played in the World Series last year. As a matter of fact, the Giants were about as hopeless as the Twins do right now. I was in SF when they were feeble and saw them shut out on a Saturday afternoon.

They need to try to win now. Everything went right in May. A lot of things have gone wrong in the other months. It balances out. There is time for a run. It is a long shot that they make the playoffs, but a shot worth taking at this time of year.

nicksaviking · August 5, 2015

It is not now time to throw in the towel. Don't forget that two wild card teams played in the World Series last year. As a matter of fact, the Giants were about as hopeless as the Twins do right now. I was in SF when they were feeble and saw them shut out on a Saturday afternoon.
They need to try to win now. Everything went right in May. A lot of things have gone wrong in the other months. It balances out. There is time for a run. It is a long shot that they make the playoffs, but a shot worth taking at this time of year.

I might think the Twins are in the same boat as the Giants if they had Madison Bumgarner.

SwainZag · August 5, 2015

I'm trying to wrap my head around the idea that pelfrey has been a pleasant surprise and has done well.

Tell me before the season that you wouldn't be surprised if someone told you that Pelfrey through 20 starts would have a 3.65 ERA with a 4.05 FIP. Pretty much your average mid rotation starter, which I'm sure anyone would be pleasantly surprised with before the season.

Ncgo4 · August 5, 2015

The Twins are clearly at risk of disappearing. Hunter, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki & SS (enter name of choice) cannot hit. Bringing up Kepler, Arcia & Walker (and hopefully Buxton) would not be tossing in the towel. It would be moving to the future. Making the pitching changes outlined earlier couldn't hurt either .

Thank goodness, our incompetent GM didn't do more damage before the trade deadline arrived.

70charger · August 5, 2015

If throwing in the towel means playing youngsters over vets, they should have thrown in the towel last offseason.

I'm of the mind that playing the youngsters isn't throwing in the towel, but just the more stable way of making your team a year-in and year-out contender. Even if it meant losing a few extra games (and judging by the look of it, it wouldn't) I'd rather see a rotation of Hughes, May, Gibson, Berrios and Duffy/flavor of the week with any number of RFs instead of Hunter.

I like most of the vets too, but they aren't as fun to watch as the kids.

This is pretty much my thought too. Prepare yourself for the long run, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle the rest of the way. Stranger things have happened, and what we're doing now with the crusty vets sure ain't working.

If that's throwing in the towel, consider me on board.

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