When to Throw In The Towel?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Pelfrey's performance has been a positive for this season. I think he would probably be in the rotation for a good number of teams in the playoff race. If the Twins aren't going to offer him after the season, they should be able to get some valuable pieces via a waiver trade.

Pelfrey has been a positive for the Twins this season, but he's not the kind of option teams go out of their way to add to their rotation for a stretch drive (meaning, give up valuable pieces for).

 

August waiver trades, almost by definition, don't return valuable pieces to the selling team.  Do you remember who the Twins gave up to acquire Pavano, Fuentes, Rauch, Nevin, and Borders in August?  Do you remember who we acquired for Morneau, Willingham, Correia, Carroll, and Delmon in August?

 

Here's recap of recent such deals:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/notable-august-trades-2012-14.html

 

The Mets did very well in their August 2013 deal, but they had a 138 OPS+ / 5 WAR outfielder and a 85 OPS+ catcher to package together.

[Loosey]

 

It's also dependent on official scorers, team defense and, in the case of starters, what relievers do when brought in with runner on.  I'd rather judge a starter (or any pitcher) on what he does.

 

And again, if people want to use ERA, go for it.  Doesn't matter to me.  I'm just not a fan of a stat so dependent on things out of the pitcher's control.  I don't know why that seems such an offensive stance to so many.

Since it has been brought up and argued about.  What I meant by pleasantly surprised when discussing Pelfrey was that he has performed better than I personally thought he would have.  I was thinking he was going to be the guy he has been his last 5 starts the entire year.  I know ERA is not a great measure, but using it as a measure for how the results of the games he pitched in were I think he did well.  Is his success based on luck and getting big outs in situations where he needed them, yes.  I don't think it was or is sustainable.  I also want him no where near this team next year, because I think the actual results we are seeing this year, will be completely different next year due to those peripheral stats you mentioned earlier.  That is why I would like to see him put on waivers and the Twins take what they can in return.  I assume it will be someone who will most likely never see Target Field, but it's better than nothing and as my entire post states, I think it's time to move forward and get the future guys feet wet to see what we have here.  Not time like the present to prepare for the future, or something like that. . . .

[Mike Sixel]

Here you go......third hardest remaining AL schedule:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-remaining-strength-of-schedule/

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Here you go......third hardest remaining AL schedule:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-remaining-strength-of-schedule/

exactly.  Been saying we have a hard remaining schedule for awhile now. Good find, Mike. One possible playoff contender has a rougher schedule than us

[Dantes929]

• You throw in the towel when you are x games out of a playoff spot with x-1 games to play.    . The 4 games Perkins blew lately have hurt us a lot but I still like him.   The misuse of May has hurt us as well.  

[ALessKosherScott]

 

you don't have to fix every problem, to fix 1 problem........Tulo was traded for pennies on the dollar. He would have been a good fit for this team.

 

I'm not sure I'd agree with pennies. Hoffman might have the highest upside of any pitcher in the minors right now. And for the Twins to trump what the Jays gave up it would have cost at least Berrios and another interesting arm. That's not exactly cheap, especially when you take what's remaining on Tulo's contract into account.

 

And I'm not sure I'd trade remaining schedules with Toronto. 13 games against the Yankees isn't exactly what I'd call an easy task.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I can only go by what I read online......"cheapest price we've seen for a star at the deadline in some time", and other such comments.....

 

NO WHERE near the absurd prices people here were suggesting.

[jimmer]

 

I can only go by what I read online......"cheapest price we've seen for a star at the deadline in some time", and other such comments.....

 

NO WHERE near the absurd prices people here were suggesting.

From yesterday's s chat with Dave Cameron:

 

Comment From David
What trade do you think was the biggest overpay or underpay?

 

Dave Cameron: Rob Kaminsky for Brandon Moss seemed like a high price for STL to pay for a platoon guy with a bad hip having a mediocre season. And the Tulo deal was probably the cheapest acquisition of a high-level player we’ve seen at the deadline in a while.

[USMCTwin]

 

The OP himself said he has 'actually done well'.  And I use plenty of stats besides WAR (like when the debate was Pelfrey or May). You just don't like that stat so it sticks out every time someone uses it. Yet now you want to use it.

 

And I didn't say he was awful or worthless.  I said he's been pretty bad and 'He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.'  Those descriptions are not the same as awful or worthless.

 

Of course depends on what site you are using. Pelf is ranked 32 in WAR among starting pitchers at Baseball Reference, right ahead of Chris Sale, which is certainly not pretty bad.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-value-pitching.shtml

[jimmer]

 

Of course depends on what site you are using. Pelf is ranked 32 in WAR among starting pitchers at Baseball Reference, right ahead of Chris Sale, which is certainly not pretty bad.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-value-pitching.shtml

I always use Fangraphs WAR because I prefer what they use for their formulas.  For example, Fangraphs uses FIP, which is defense independent. while rWAR (baseball reference war) takes a pitcher’s actual Runs Allowed and adjusts that to account for their opponents, team defense, park, and role.

 

I could send you more info if you like in a PM because I don't want to turn this thread into a WAR debate.

[USMCTwin]

 

I always use Fangraphs WAR because I prefer what they use for their formulas.  For example, Fangraphs uses FIP, which is defense independent. while rWAR (baseball reference war) takes a pitcher’s actual Runs Allowed and adjusts that to account for their opponents, team defense, park, and role.

 

I could send you more info if you like in a PM because I don't want to turn this thread into a WAR debate.

 

Sure, fairly new-ish to the advanced stats.  Always willing to learn something new.

[Zachary]

What is making their schedule difficult the rest of the way has less to do with who their opponents are and more to do with their downward trending quality of play.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

there is zero reason to trade Dozier right now. Zero. He's a top 20 player in the majors. He's not slowing down. Zero, really, really, really bad idea.

Bleacher Report has Dozier listed at #30 and ESPN has him at 53rd.  Elias has him ranked much lower, 94.  I like the guy, but if you are looking to build for the future you need to consider trading anyone.  No matter how much you like them.

 

Sources:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/playerratings

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2517503-updating-the-top-100-mlb-players-at-2015s-midseason

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, you look at trading anyone.......but I have zero confidence in Polanco. There just isn't evidence he's a MLB player.

 

For Dozier or Plouffe, you have to get a SURE THING, at SS or C, or no idea why I do it.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I can only go by what I read online......"cheapest price we've seen for a star at the deadline in some time", and other such comments.....

 

NO WHERE near the absurd prices people here were suggesting.

 

Hoffman is number 33 on BA's top 50 midseason prospect list. Castro is a better version of Burdi. Even Tinoco shows promise. If that's getting off cheaply, I'd hate to see paying through the nose.

[Kwak]

 

Hoffman is number 33 on BA's top 50 midseason prospect list. Castro is a better version of Burdi. Even Tinoco shows promise. If that's getting off cheaply, I'd hate to see paying through the nose.

They got rid of Reyes--sort of addition by subtraction there.

[ALessKosherScott]

So Mauer, Berrios, Burdi and Tapia for Tulo and Hawkins, as a not perfect but fairly close approximation. Who's happy with that?

[Mike Sixel]

 

So Mauer, Berrios, Burdi and Tapia for Tulo and Hawkins, as a not perfect but fairly close approximation. Who's happy with that?

 

I would be. Move Sano or Plouffe to first. That's a much better team this year, next year, and probably the year after. heck, if Mauer is gone, Tulo could move to first, Sano to third, and Plouffe dealt for a C (with Tulo at SS for the next 1.5-2.5 years, then Gordon).

[USAFChief]

 

So Mauer, Berrios, Burdi and Tapia for Tulo and Hawkins, as a not perfect but fairly close approximation. Who's happy with that?

Is there anybody that WOULDN'T be happy with that?

 

 

[ALessKosherScott]

Better hitting team. With just enough pitching to get rolled in the Wild Card game the next two years!

[jimmer]

Making a call: Toronto will win the AL East.

[howeda7]

When the # of games + the # of teams you have to jump > than the # of weeks left in the season. Currently this will be 5 (3+2) and there are 8. So not yet. We could be only a couple weeks away though.

[70charger]

 

Making a call: Toronto will win the AL East.

 

Let's see how they play against real competition.

 

 

(sarcasm alert!)

[Zachary]

I know that they have been sitting right around .500 alongside the Twins this whole time and maybe this series alone made them appear god-like to us, but (especially) with their trade deadline additions, this team seems 100% legit to me. Their lineup is just ridiculous.