Kyle Gibson-Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth?

[jokin]

 

Kyle Gibson entered tonight's game as the worst among all of MLB's qualified pitchers in these stats-   xFIP (5.09), worst SIERA (5.42) and worst K/BB (0.77), K/9 (2.97) & K%(7.6%-- the latter three only got worse after tonight).  And yet, his ERA now stands at 2.97.

 

Is it mirrors or magic tricks?  Feel free to discuss.

[Danchat]

He's pretty lucky he got 13 runs of run support. Phil Hughes is wishing he got a little of that in his first few starts.

 

I am concerned with Gibson's lack of strikeouts... our rotation is playing better than it really is right now.

[howieramone2]

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[USAFChief]

...or is he the luckiest man in the entire solar system?

 

Discuss.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would say he is the luckiest from among the four inner-ring planets.....

 

He is getting results even while his peripherals stink. Throw out that first horrible start at Detroit and he probably looks closer to normal, which should mean he will continue to get results.

 

There was this discussion thread linking to this article on Gibson's unusual but consistent ability to draw weak contact on his fly balls when he's not inducing grounders. So perhaps he's both good and lucky.

[jorgenswest]

Ignoring the use of some stats that need a much larger sample...

 

Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher that also has had a low hr/FB rate over the last two years. That isn't luck. There are very few pitchers with those characteristics.

 

SIERRA does factor in balls in play. However it assumes that a groundball pitcher will have a higher than normal hr/fb rate. Therefore it will not model Gibson's characteristics well. xFIP does not consider groundball rate and assumes a league average HR/FB rate. If Gibson is truly an extreme groundball pitcher with a lower than average HR/FB rate, xFIP will not model his performance well.

 

More on the rare combination is at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/4/4/8338029/twins-kyle-gibsons-rare-valuable-talent-ground-balls-pop-ups

 

As for 2015, it might be wise to wait until he has 10 or so starts before we pay too much attention to the stat line.

[ashbury]

Close, but it was the other Gibson that holds that honor.

 

"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He is always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver.

[Oxtung]

A key premise of that article, IIRC (it won't load for me currently), was that he gets both ground balls and infield flies while limiting line drives. This year his line drives are up 5%, his infield flies are down 6% and his ground ball is down 3%. In other words his batted ball profile isn't the same as when that was written. in addition his left on base rate, his BABIP, and his HR/FB rate all fall within the top quarter of pitchers over the last 5 seasons and his walk rate is up significantly. He has a 1.4 WHIP currently.

 

I think it's fairly safe to say he is pretty lucky to have a sub-3 ErA currently. As JW pointed out above though he might not be a 5 ERA either.

[Thegrin]

this year Gibson has 8 DPs, Pelfrey 6 and the rest, only a few.  He seems to have a talent for escaping trouble. 

[spinowner]

 

this year Gibson has 8 DPs, Pelfrey 6 and the rest, only a few.  He seems to have a talent for escaping trouble. 

Another way to interpret these seemingly contradictory stats is to say that he's a clutch player. Getting a GIDP requires throwing a good pitch at the right time. Most people feel that Gibson's sinkerball is his best pitch, and throwing a good one in a key situation could be why he has been able to escape trouble. And that IS a talent.

[formerly33]

 

He's pretty lucky he got 13 runs of run support. Phil Hughes is wishing he got a little of that in his first few starts.

 

I am concerned with Gibson's lack of strikeouts... our rotation is playing better than it really is right now.

But he could have gone with just Rosario's homer, couldn't he have?

 

(By the way, Ash, I adore your Gibson analogy. Perfect.)

[tobi0040]

I think you can look at this two ways.  On the one hand, if he continues to get only 2 K per 9 innings the luck will run out.  The flipside, nobody is making good contact on his pitches and he is getting a lot of ground balls.  So if that keeps up he will be just fine.  Maybe not 2.97 ERA, but he will have a good year.

 

His fastball and slider move enough to make awkward contact, but hitter are getting a piece of them. He seems to miss the strike zone on the slider so pitchers don't offer at it a ton.  And the change up looks really good, not a swing and miss pitch yet, but it seems to confuse hitters and keep them off balance.

 

The stats tell me he has only given up 2 HR in 36 innings.  In his last four starts (26 IP), he has only given up 17 hits and has GB rates of 55%, 61%, 59%, and 56%. The double plays should continue with those GB rates.  Only 10 extra base hits (1 HR and 9 2B).

 

FIP and xFIP are heavily skewed towards strike out pitchers and punishes guys that get weak contact.  Mariano Rivera had a fair amount of K's, but he is the poster boy for weak contact.  His FIP is more than a half a run worse than his career ERA.   Brandon Webb was an extreme ground ball guy, his FIP was .23 higher than his ERA.

[Mike Sixel]

You can use the small sample size talk about what did happen. It is wrong to assume it is predictive. Two very different things.

 

But, I cannot answer the question without seeing his significant other.

[SheboyganBrats]

Small sample size.  Hopefully, as the season goes on and the stats normalize, the peripherals begin to look more like the ERA, not the other way around.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no question Gibson has been lucky, it's just a matter of degree. Maybe he 'deserves' an ERA of 4.50 instead of 5.00, due to his ability to induce weak contact. Either way, his ERA is going to go up for sure unless he increases strikeouts and/or decreases walks.

[Linus]

Sheesh,  I think I will choose to focus on his streak of 17 scoreless innings. 

[gunnarthor]

I am a little worried about him but the ground balls are for real.  I have no idea if this is true but it does seem that Gibson has gotten a lot of hitters to two strikes fairly easily and then gets a weak ground out.  Maybe that's his out pitch?  Does anyone know what his swing strike % are?

[gocgo]

I think any statistical measurement for pitchers can be skewed.  ERA depends on the quality of the defense behind you.  An outfield full of Willinghams and Arcias isn't going to lend to a low ERA.  Wins and losses depends on the offense and defense around you.  xFIP, FIP, SIERRA...they all have holes.

 

Bottom line is that the Twins are finding a way to win even though it is somewhat defying the odds.  I had said last week that if the stat lines continued as they were, winning games would not continue.  However, the stat lines have trended in the right direction and the winning has continued.  Go Twins!

[halfchest]

It's six starts, I'll agree he's likely had some good luck but I also think he's likely going to increase strikeouts and decrease walks which will limit his regression to the mean.

 

So I guess I'm saying I believe his peripherals will get better over time but his luck will probably also swing the other direction and we'll see a solid mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. 

 

I was really hoping he would get his K/9 up to 6-7 range this year.  Right now I'm just hoping he can get back to his career averages.  For now, just enjoying a little good luck and hoping he can keep it up.

[Nick Nelson]

It's true that he's due for regression if he keeps pitching like this. But it's also hard to imagine he'll keep pitching like this. He has the stuff to miss more bats, and his 2.7 K/9 rate is extremely meager even by the low standard he set last year.

 

I think an increase in strikeouts will offset luck regression, but in general it's fair to expect better-than-typical results on balls in play because he works down in the zone and doesn't give up XBH.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

There is no question Gibson has been lucky, it's just a matter of degree. Maybe he 'deserves' an ERA of 4.50 instead of 5.00, due to his ability to induce weak contact. Either way, his ERA is going to go up for sure unless he increases strikeouts and/or decreases walks.

 

His ERA is 2.97.  It will end the year higher than that.  No doubt.  But I think he can be around or sub 4.00

[COtwin]

I think he is for real.  He doesn't have dominate stuff, but he sure is hard to hit solidly.  Last night was a rough start for him.  He seemed to really have to work to get outs, and he was missing his spots fairly often.  Seemed like he was nibbling around the perimeter and was just off the plate, or he wasn't getting the calls.  He definitely didn't have the control he had in his last start, but he still had six scoreless.  I think we saw what he is capable of on a great night, his last start, and an ok night, last night.  The key is going to be can he keep that movement on his pitches.  If he has a night were he can't get sink, he might get roughed up a bit.  Then the key will be for Allen to get him out before the score blows up.  I think he is going to be capable of a high 3 ERA.  When he is on, people get themselves out quickly.  Not as worried about lack of strikeouts.  When he has really needed one in the last few starts, it seems like he has gotten one or a short pop fly.  I am sure he is a bit lucky, but I also see something that is repeatable for him, even on a bit of an off night.

[Craig Arko]

"I'd rather be lucky than good." -- Lefty Gomez

[Monkeypaws]

Dat sinker. Pitch to contact can be effective if the contact is weak.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ignoring the use of some stats that need a much larger sample...

Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher that also has had a low hr/FB rate over the last two years. That isn't luck. There are very few pitchers with those characteristics.

SIERRA does factor in balls in play. However it assumes that a groundball pitcher will have a higher than normal hr/fb rate. Therefore it will not model Gibson's characteristics well. xFIP does not consider groundball rate and assumes a league average HR/FB rate. If Gibson is truly an extreme groundball pitcher with a lower than average HR/FB rate, xFIP will not model his performance well.

More on the rare combination is at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/4/4/8338029/twins-kyle-gibsons-rare-valuable-talent-ground-balls-pop-ups

As for 2015, it might be wise to wait until he has 10 or so starts before we pay too much attention to the stat line.

Yes, this. I'm not sold on Gibson being a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher but his groundball tendencies make him a better pitcher than xFIP will give him credit for being.

 

For example, last night. He was slightly lucky that he got out of six innings without giving up a single run... But he pitched very well. He didn't miss bats but he induced weak contact again and again and again. That's not entirely luck-based. That's a pitcher who is moving the ball around and forcing hitters to swing at pitches they can't get into the outfield.

 

Since the beginning of 2014, Gibson has averaged just a tick under a hit an inning. For a guy who doesn't miss bats, that's impressive and it's not borne out of dumb luck.

 

BTW, does anyone know where one can find XBH allowed by a pitcher? I'm curious to see Gibson's numbers. I bet they're really low.

[markos]

 

Yes, this. I'm not sold on Gibson being a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher but his groundball tendencies make him a better pitcher than xFIP will give him credit for being.

I don't think that is true. I haven't seen any research to indicate that groundball pitchers have a lower HR/FB% than average. A quick look at 2014 indicates that of the 23 starters with >50% GB, 13 had HR/FB% greater than league average. Yes, he may give up fewer total HRs (because he gives up fewer flyballs in general), but that doesn't mean that the rate (HR/FB) will definitely be lower. And xFIP only normalizes the rate, not the total number of flyballs.

 

There does seem to be some evidence that a pitcher who can consistently induce more popups (like Gibson might be able to) will be able to consistently outperform his xFIP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I phrased that poorly. Yes, that last paragraph is what I meant. Not Gibson's groundball tendencies so much as his general tendencies as a pitcher. Lots of weak contact.

 

Interestingly, Gibson's IFFB% is way down this year, about half of what it was last year.

[TheLeviathan]

Hey, remember when people wanted Gibson sent down like 10 days ago?  Maybe we should just let things play out a bit.

[tobi0040]

 

Hey, remember when people wanted Gibson sent down like 10 days ago?  Maybe we should just let things play out a bit.

 

Especially when you have a track record of over 200 IP and an FIP of 4.18

[Hrbowski]

I think that Phil Hughes is luckier than Gibson. I wrote a blog post about the two, and everything pointed to Hughes being luckier, such as being a fly ball pitcher with a horrible outfield defense, and throwing such a high percentage of strike with a catcher who is horrible at pitch framing. With the way that Gibson can be so great, and then be horrible you could make a case that he is the Unluckiest Pitcher is Baseball,