halfchest

It's not ridiculous at all to say he would be better off with a 3-5 year deal averaging 15-20 million than a 1 year 17.8 million deal. If he regresses or has a bad injury, he won't likely see anything near that. He could put up another year like 2019 and make more too. Just saying the logic isn't that he's being underpaid this year, but that he likely could have locked in long term security this offseason had he not signed with QO.

I was kind of thinking this same thing. While acknowledging the age difference and some other differences pointed out I was asking myself would I rather have Wheeler and keep Brusdar or have Donaldson and Maeda? Assuming had we signed Wheeler to a 20+ million per year deal Donaldson would have been off the radar. I'll take the latter. Plus the fact he's been successful in the bullpen to me is a nice transition here if he does fall off as a starter over the last year or 2 of his contract. Could also transition to bullpen for playoffs if needed and/or if we develop some of our young pitching prospects.

I am curious what next years draft class is looking like at this point? Any Bryce Harpers out there or are we looking at a likely top 3-5 that are interchangeable? Either way, I don't really want to see the team tank but I am hopeful they will sell off a few veteran pieces to bolster the farm system even further and possibly open up a little cash for future seasons.

Re: Kirby and Chapman domestic problems There is a big difference between having someone already in your organization with allegations/convictions and actively pursuing a player that has had issues in the past. It's a weak comparison at best. Yes, people deserve second chances and I think the original comment was dead on. Can't fault the Twins for not going after the guy when he's got off the field crap going on right now. Has nothing to do with Kirby or anyone else past or present in Twins organization.

I'll counter your small sample with a smaller sample! [table] [thead] SplitGPAABRH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPSHSFIBBROEBAbiptOPS+sOPS+[/thead] 1st PA in G as SP161441371642933004389.50.307.331.482.81366012001.406115128 2nd PA in G as SP151261171234612005244.80.291.317.410.72848310300.3409499 3rd PA in G as SP1389801321313009111.22.263.337.438.77535100012.273107103 4th+ PA in G as SP111000000000[/td][td].000.000.000.0000000000.000-100-100 1st PA in G as RP321321201330613008374.63.250.305.392.69747121110.3338699 [/table]Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/23/2015. ok, looking at that, I'm assuming it's not going to work but I guess I will have to post and cross my fingers. Essentially it shows your information on May getting worse each time through the lineup was drawn out more due to his time as a reliever and his 2014 stats. I think May either ends up as a top reliever which is valuable in todays market or transitions back to starter where he may be a good mid rotation guy, maybe even a #2 if all things work out well. That said, I agree with the overall premise. Milone is a very good but just not sexy starter. I'll be very interested to see how his career goes the rest of the way.

true, but main point is we're overvaluing Hicks, after a .597 and .615 OPS in 2013 and 2014. Then in 2015, he had the same numbers except for one very small sample in the month of July. Other than that month he's a medicore to bad hitter. So while John Ryan Murphy may not be much, it says something that the Yankees called him up as a 22 year old and he put up respectable numbers in 2015 as a backup catcher both offensively and defensively. I'm not saying it's a slam dunk but I think some need to step back and take a realistic look at Hicks.

I said it in another thread but Murphy has a better career ops in the majors than hicks does and has done it as a part time guy not getting consistent at bats and being 2 years younger. Add in the weakness at catcher and its a good trade. Great analysis

or 3. Twins fans are overvaluing their own players. The catcher they got has been a better hitter at the Major League level than Aaron Hicks and has been doing it at a younger age and as a backup (which I tend to think is harder when not getting consistent at bats). HIcks may have more upside but really, he's had one good month as a hitter in the majors over the past 3 years. Murphy has a good shot to be a league average starting catcher offensively and defensively. Trade made sense and now the Twins don't have to give up top prospects for Lucroy or pay too much for Wieters.

I'm intrigued, not the splash I was hoping for at catcher but it also means we can truly consider keeping Plouffe. A quick random lineup gives me the following by midseason. Buxton Dozier Mauer Sano Byung Ho Plouffe Rosario Escobar Murphy Figure in a bench of Kepler, Santana, Arcia/Vargas, and Suzuki. That ain't half bad. Please be kind, this was off the cuff with very little thought put into it.

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2015/11/1/9653934/considering-byung-ho-park Here's a good article i found when checking for info on him. I like it if he can translate over to a 25ish homer guy with a .800 ops. That would be grand. Obviously has contact skills too i assume with the .340 batting average. The most interesting part to me is two years ago he had almost a 1:1 bb:k ratio. And while thats diminished hes added power and batting average in place of the walks. His ops has only increased so tough to complain. Like the move read the article its worth a look.

I'd be very curious about the price involved. Let's not joke around and say we're gonna get him for Nolasco Arcia and or course Duensing . . . but overall I am very curious about the price for the guy. Is it a sell low if they trade him right now? His total numbers from last year aren't amazing but if you look at his 2nd half splits it's again .800 OPS and falls in line with his numbers from 2012-2014 as an elite hitter, especially form the catcher position. He's on an incredibly affordable contract for 2 years that if things go awry it won't hurt the team other than the prospects they forfeit. He'll be 30 next year and has some recent injury concerns. I guess all of this is just a long way of saying , yes go after him, but at the same time, the Twins can't mortgage too much of the future to grab him. His overall middling stats from 2015 might represent a shot to grab him at a discount from what he would have cost a year ago, but he's still not coming for free and it will take players who have more years of control than he does. Polanco, May, Kohl Stewart all seem like nice centerpieces to deals. Maybe we also sell low on Alex Meyer? I don't know, just spitballing. Obviously not giving up anyone like Sano, Buxton, Berrios for him. As much as I hate the dump our garbage on other teams mentality, if they are rebuilding they might be willing to take on the money owed to Nolasco. With the hope they could flip him if he rebounds and they get maybe another young upside player if they agree to take on his contract.

I could see Plouffe, don't see how they justify moving Dozier though. Had a down 2nd half but overall numbers over past 2 1/2 seasons are very very good .240/322/.435/.747 stat line over those years. That's solid for anywhere and very good for 2B, especially when you add plus defense to the equation. So don't let his slow 2nd half fool you. wins, homeruns, ,etc. count just as much in the 1st half as the 2nd half. Also, the idea of trading him midway through the year is a bit ridiculous if we're contending, which hopefully we will be. So let's say he's again on pace for over 30 bombs and has an OPS over .800 at the break. How on earth can anyone justify trading him away from a competing team. That kind of trade just doesn't happen. Much more likely that we trade away Polanco in that scenario. IF dozier were to get moved it would have to be in the offseason or if we just suck next year.

Sooo . . at what point does he start realistically pushing Correa for ROY honors? He's got him by about .150 points in OPS, lets say he keeps it up and hits another 5-6 homers before the end of the season. I realize he's not playing defense but writers don't seem to factor in defense that much anyhow. Gotta think he's at least turning some heads as he's been one of the best hitters in the game since his callup.

So to get rid of small sample sizes, what position he was playing etc. Let's just look at Escobar the last two seasons. He has received regular playing time both last season and this season, just at different positions this year. 2014 .275 .315 .406 .721 2015 .253 .294 .419 .712 Those are fine for a SS and I believe above average even right? He's a solid defender as well, grades out above average there too. So that's two years of stats, no cutting out certain times/dates for whatever reason. He's under control for the next 3 years and is just now hitting his prime. Seems like a very good solution now let's hope they just let him play there the rest of this year and next.

I tend to agree that May should have remained in the rotation but I also see why the Twins chose him at that time, it was definitely a tough one to make. Hughes and Santana obviously aren't getting demoted at that point, hughes has been mediocre this year and Santana was our big acquisition no way he's going straight into the pen. Gibson was our best pitcher at the time IMO even though he has had some bumps since the break. Pelfrey while he had horrible peripherals had about a 3.00 ERA and sorry can't argue too much with results even if they're smoke and mirrors. Milone also was on a tear after destroying AAA for a month and had 5 starts up in the majors of sub 3.00 ERA and has been solid overall this year. So it wasn't an easy decision by any means, glad that it's at least working out to fix up the bullpen. May will be a starter again next season, and I'm not concerned about half a season in the bullpen messing with him at all.

While I agree, there are different measures of value than Metrics and money. So long term, yes you are absolutely right that starters are worth more, they cost more as free agents, they generally will provide more value assuming they can pitch the same or close to it as a starter vs. a reliever. However, looking at value, you also have to factor in who is the replacement. Since the Twins have a logjam of pitching and overall it has been solid this year with some hiccups overall. Realistically May is being replaced by Pelfrey or Milone both of who have had solid years if you look at the results. Which in the end, for this year, is all that really matters right? We can argue about Santana but it's a small sample size and with his history he actually does deserve a long leash. Point being, in the rotation, as much as we like his peripherals and he is probably the better pitcher, the only guys he was likely to replace have actually had better real results that being ERA. Therefore, him being in the rotation you can argue wouldn't have been any better than Pelfrey or Milone based only on the actual outcomes of their starts this year. In the bullpen however, we have had a number of guys faltering that would be in the bullpen if May were not. Where he is providing a very good late inning option instead of a mediocre to bad middle reliever. Therefore he is providing a ton of value to the team in the bullpen this year. Again, I'm going with actual results (ERA) instead of future predictors/value and looking at replacement value. Right now, May is more valuable to the pen because he's getting rid of a much worse player I the pen where in the rotation he would be replacing someone who has had similar results.

Tyler Jay looking better and better, very solid overall numbers minus the mediocre ERA

I do believe May will get one more shot at starting mainly because as people have said he did nothing to pitch himself out of the rotation other than not being a highly paid veteran and no one else pitched themselves out of the rotation. Had Hughes injury come a bit sooner he likely would have slotted right back into a starting role. It's almost comical that his ERA was starting to come more in line with his advanced metrics like FIP xFIP right before he was demoted. He had a nice run of four very good starts in June right before the demotion but looking at his splits he actually had better fip and xfip earlier in the year. At this point, it makes sense to keep him in the bullpen for this season which I don't think anyone is questioning. between Jepsen, May, Perkins, and now Cotts we have an adequate and as we saw last weekend sometimes dominant pen. While we need our starters to keep it up I'll be happy knowing we have a good shot of keeping a lead after the 6/7th innings.

Good to see Gordon continuing to hit. His month to month splits look great after a horrible May OPS by month April .652 May .538 June .711 July .772 August .902 Nice to see the improvement month to month. 19 is pretty young for midwest league right?

yah, too soon to give up on Santana. but that said, sure I'd take this shot, it gives a couple years to see if Gordon can develop into our future guy and frees up some future money when our prospects start hitting arbitration. I'm assuming that the Rockies would want one decent prospect for him too though. Maybe Hu? oh yah wait, nevermind . . .

I was just thinking about this with Rosario . . . is he playing over his head at all? Is there anything about his current numbers that seem like he's getting lucky? HI BABIP seems a bit high but a quick glance at his minor league numbers and it's kinda the norm. I'm no sabermetrician so I'm the wrong guy to analyze his numbers but high K% and low BB % leaves some cause for concern but that's also probably normal for a fairly raw rookie. The overall post I totally agree with, looks like the Twins have a great shot at a very good defensive outfield that can contribute more than enough offensively.

I know it's been discussed before but I'd like to know what are the scouting reports on Walkers defense? Is he average in the corners at least? That would go a long way towards his ability to be a major leaguer. If he can provide at least average to above average defense in the corners he could be a very good 4th OF/DH for the Twins as long as 2 of Hicks/Rosario/Buxton stay with the team. That way we dont' need a shane robinson type sitting on the bench but we have a guy that can come in and tie or win a game with one swing of the bat.

What's so frustrating is that first stretch after the break they had a few very close games that if they go the other way we're sitting 1 game back. The same could be said the other way around though if they had lost 1 or 2 close games we 'd be sitting 4-5 back. I don't like their chances they way they've played but it at least validates the Twins not making a big win now move like going for a Cueto etc. The one move I'd still be interested in is either another cheap bullpen upgrade and some swap of Nolasco + prospect(s) for Shields.

Both guy actually have 2018 options so as long as they keep pitching it would be for 3+ years. I would do that no problem, especially if it includes taking back Nolasco's contract as part of the deal. I think people also need to realize that Kimbrel is not just a very good reliever but he may be the best reliever in the game right now. Plus with Perks cheap contract we can afford to pay his big contract. Again, I just wonder who would end up closing games if we got him.

That's quite the low ceiling, a likely outcome but his ceiling? really? Why do you say his defense has been declining? I haven't seen any reports on this and that's really all we can go by in the minors for the most part. The fact he's been playing all three outfield positions makes me doubt this claim as well. If you said that he may just end up as a no power guy who plays 1B and Corner outfield, I may agree that is a possible, maybe even likely outcome but his ceiling is much higher than a .725 OPS guy who can only play 1B/DH. He was expected to take a bit longer to develop than other prospects due to his background and now we're starting to see him flourish. Hey may never be a 20-30 HR guy but that doesn't mean he's 2015 Joe Mauer all of a sudden. I do agree though that I'd almost rather trade him than Arcia because as you point out, we'd be selling high on Kepler and low on Arcia. I think he'd bring more in a trade because he does have a high ceiling and now it's translating to the field in AA.