halfchest

Ya know who else broke the model? Nick Blackburn, at least for awhile. In all honesty though that's a really bad comparison. Gibson's struck out more guys both in the minors and majors and has a much better pedigree than Blackburn ever did. (although wasn't Blackburn our #1 prospect one year after he tore up AA?). While I don't expect Gibson to be a 3.00-3.50 ERA guy every year or possibly any year. I think he could settle in nicely and have a career at just under 4.00 ERA. Also, while he was almost scared of a strikeout the first 6 starts and had a backwards K/BB ratio, he's turned it around and has struck out 44 over 49 IP with a 44/13 K/BB ratio over his last 8 starts. He's probably somewhere in between those two guys but I think he's still developing and has a very good chance to improve his K/9 numbers over last year and what they are over the first half of this year.

Any word on the Saturday starter yet?

As far as the Sano for Hamels . . . . yes I can see that. As much as it would be sad to never see Sano take an at bat for the major league team, they already have an above average to great offense and that's with a realtively young core and lots of parts in the minors or injured right now in Buxton, Polanco, Vargas, Kepler, Arcia, Pinto, Walker, etc. Think of this current offense with a rotation of Hamels, Hughes Santana Gibson May/Pelfrey/Berrios/Milone The Twins suddenly have one of the better rotations in the game to pair with a great offense, improving defense, and still stacked farm system. Wonder if that would be enough for Hamels honestly? Might have to give one more piece like a young upside picher Wu or Gonsalves too. Still might be worth it. While I struggle to condone trading a guy like Sano, Hamels might be one of the few pieces out there you consider dealing him for. It almost has to have them taking Nolasco though for salary and to open up a rotation spot.

Tough to trade anyone who is making a positive contribution when you currently look like a playoff contender. Especially an everyday guy and take a chance that a prospect can fill that void left by a guy like Plouffe offensively or defensively. Long term, sure we all assume Sano is the better player but for 2015 and even 2016 the truth is Plouffe may be the better man to stay there. If Sano forces the issue and shows he can handle major league pitching in 2016 then you look at your options that offseason or maybe even trade deadline in 2016. I don't see any issues right now with just seeing how things pan out. A lot can change between now and when they are really forced to bring Sano up. If the Twins are still sniffing the playoffs come August then we see some callups of guys like Buxton and Sano so they are playoff eligible. Otherwise barring injury or big drops in performance I don't see a need to force Sano or Buxton up.

I say until at least the end of the year. His performance this year has been awful but changing long term plans on a guy following a 6 weeks worth of games is not the way to handle a prospect. I guess if he can't get out of this funk by the end of the season then the Twins have to start seriously re-evaluating long term plans for the guy.

Like how he looks in a very small sample. Just appears more confident at the plate and in the field. Really hoping he has turned a corner and can become a quality contributor for this team. Would love to see both him and Buxton in the outfield by the end of the year.

Nice update, like Seth pointed out, can't move someone too much based on 5 weeks of baseball.

Let's not completely write off Meyer yet either when talking about replacements. Can't write him off after a rough first month.

Before we start talking trades and returns lets give the guys a chance to sort things out first. If all four young outfielders turn out to be above average players then we can start discussing trade scenarios. I'm a big fan of Hicks and hope he finally sticks. I feel like his defense combined with patience is what can make him a valuable guy. He doesn't have to tear the cover off the ball to have a high OBP, get steals, and play good defense. Will he be an all star? not likely but could he be a valuable corner guy that can be your backup CF? yes. He also brings value in a corner position in that he can be your backup CF allowing you to have more of an all bat/no defense 4th outfielder rather than a Jordan Schafer, mastroianni, etc. type. Wouldn't take a lot for him to be a valuable guy, worst case he ends up as a better option for our 4th outfielder than picking up random AAAA players on waivers.

I understand making him wait a little bit. I can't say the Twins have wronged him in any way after the last two seasons handing him a starting job. That said, yah I'd like to see him up fairly soon now with how he's hitting and given the alternatives. If he could hit well enough to lock down a corner position long term that would add some great value. I'm hopeful he's matured and can deliver in the big leagues.

It's six starts, I'll agree he's likely had some good luck but I also think he's likely going to increase strikeouts and decrease walks which will limit his regression to the mean. So I guess I'm saying I believe his peripherals will get better over time but his luck will probably also swing the other direction and we'll see a solid mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. I was really hoping he would get his K/9 up to 6-7 range this year. Right now I'm just hoping he can get back to his career averages. For now, just enjoying a little good luck and hoping he can keep it up.

I think my biggest disappointment was not bringing up Meyer or May when the suspension news came. In small part because I was interested to see if Pelfrey could reinvent himself in the pen like Perkins did. I'm expecting some pretty big changes to this roster within the first 6-8 weeks. Only time will tell.

It would be nice to add the Twins players 2014 statistics to compare to the other guys in the league on these articles. Just a suggestion as I find myself going to baseball-reference to double check what their line was from last year while reading these articles. #firstworldproblems

.250/.350/.420 18 HR, 38 2B with good defense and he'll be the best 2B in the division. Betting Kinsler continues to drop off a bit at age 33. Kipnis and Dozier will be one and two if I had to bet on anything. I don't really expect him to increase his BA or anything really but to hold steady overall with his 2014 numbers.

This is a great discussion. I've honestly flip flopped a lot reading the arguments which is rare. I usually form an opinion and stick with it. It really keeps coming down to it depending on the numbers. Do we just sign him through his arb years and add some options? That to me is best case scenario. The Twins get some cost certainty and Dozier gets some guaranteed wealth in return. Then put some well paid options on the end of the contract. Then if Dozier continues to be a 3-4 WAR player you pick those up. I don't believe any contract he signs will prevent future contracts so after thinking it through I think an extension would be fine as long as there aren't large guarantees in years 5 and 6. I hope those will be options where the Twins can either cut their losses or pay dozier what he's worth for a couple seasons. It's not winwin and it shouldn't be any extension has some risks for both sides. When it comes down to it I would be fine with the Twins going year to year as well. They may pay more for those four years if he continues to produce but they won't be stuck with someone who is injured or if there is a sharp drop in his production.

To be clear, despite my reply above stating I think the staff should be much improved I figure best case scenario we're about a .500 team and settle in around 3rd or 4th in the division. I guess true best case scenario is 90% of the scenarios we talk about break positive for the Twins and then yah we're sniffing the playoffs, but I' not holding my breath. Still looking forward to a much more entertaining team this year.

He may have had the names wrong but the point was still spot on. 2013 we had guys like liam hendriks, scott diamond, vance worley, pj walters, pedro hernandez, rookie kyle gibson who was awful combining for 48 starts that combined for over a 6.0 ERA that's not including pelfrey with 29 starts at a 5.19 ERA. In 2014 Pino had 11 starts at a 5.07 ERA so I wouldn't call that decent. In addition to that milone, may, darnell, and pelfrey combined for 28 starts all pitching over 7 ERA. The point being it seems like we have better options this year for our spot starts and just our opening rotation has much better options. Now anything can happen but you have to figure with regression to the mean(Nolasco, Milone, Hughes) and improvement from younger pitchers (May, Meyer, Gibson) we have much better options than the past two years. You also add in Santana as a planned starter rather than Correia or Pelfrey and it would almost take some horrible luck to not be a much improved pitching staff.

This honestly changes my opinion. I'm not much more in favor of waiting a year than previously. Worst case his price goes up a bit. If he signs now it better be for a decent discount.

I look back to where the Twins waited too long on guys like Hunter and Santana and ended up losing them. Now obviously nothing is for sure but both of those guys would have been more likely to re-sign at a reasonable rate had the Twins gone after them when they were under team control for more years. I also look at the Span contract and how that worked out and I'm all for the Twins exploring this now. The only bad extension the Twins have done is probably Blackburn and that was still pretty low risk. This is obviously a bit higher risk but he's shown some consistent power and plus defense. If he puts up another year like last year I see his price skyrocketing. To me this is the perfect time to pursue an extension but really, no one can judge it until we get some numbers.

It's pretty much impossible to judge an extension without seeing the dollars and years. I think the best deal would be a reasonable purchase of his arbitration years to give Dozier some guaranteed money in case of injury or decline and the Twins some cost certainty. In addition having a couple of higher price option years that are representative of how he should get paid if he continues to hit 20 homers and play top notch defense. That way the Twins aren't stuck with him long term if he declines rapidly but he also gets a couple nice paydays if they do keep him. I'm all for taking a chance on an extension, if he puts up another year like 2014 his price is going to increase rapidly next offseason.

There are a lot of guys who are on the cusp of that list that have been mentioned like Polanco, Burdi, Rosario. Then there are a couple guys who graduated this year in Vargas and Santana that would be no doubter top 100's, right? Can't complain about having such a glut of top end talent and a lot of it being close to major league ready. Change seems to be on the horizon even though we had a lost year from out two top prospects. Last year was the first year I enjoyed watching the Twins despite their losing ways, there was some bright spots and some young talent. I'm excited to see some of these top prospects contribute.

My main beef with saying we should go after Lester is it just seems like those top flight guys get so many offers they go where they want. If you trade for a guy well then you've got him. I also think sometimes we value the prospects too highly. I guess it would depend on the price overall but I would have zero problem giving up one of berrios/meyer as a centerpiece in a deal for Hamels. So while I agree that it's not the exact right time, it's not like guys like Hamels with 4 years of control are on the trade block all the time. Even though yes, maybe money wise Meyer/Berrios would be worth more to the Twins long term, they may both be busts, we don't know. At some point the Twins may be smart to make a deal for an established #1 pitcher. I would be very happy if they went after Hamels.

Ha, you're probably right honestly. I'm just sick of this noncontending BS. I guess my argument for going after Hamels and the time being now is that he's not just a one year guy. Going after Smardzjianera would've been dumb unless the plan was to resign him. Hamels is signed for 4-5 years and with him we suddenly do have what looks like a pretty dominant pitching staff. One I would feel comfortable pitting against most pitching staffs in the league. Couple that with an elite closer, an offense on the rise and a strong farm system and it seems like adding the Ace pitcher is the missing element. However, it's probably a year too early. Maybe if Sano and Buxton didn't have lost years last year and had at least gotten a cup of coffee last fall it would make more sense. I guess I would hope that Terry Ryan is at least doing his due diligence and if the price is right I would go for it. The iron may not be hot but it's at least getting warm. Adding Hamels would hurry up that process. I guess I would try to learn from the royals experience. They have had this budding farm system for what seemed like forever and nothing ever came of it for so many years. Than they finally used some of that prospect riches and got a top of the rotation starter. Then combined that with their strong system to produce a world series contender. So while it may be too early, I truly believe at some point in the next year or so the Twins should consider cashing in prospects for an ace. Unfortunately they aren't always available when they're relatively young and have multiple years of control such as Cole Hamels does. That's probably the biggest reason I would strongly consider making a move right now.

Go big or go home, maybe I'm just sick of waiting but I say go all in, trade for Hamels and bring the future now. We have a decent offense and suddenly Hamels, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, and one of Milone/Meyer/May/Gibson looks like a rotation to match. Now, I know it wouldn't be cheap but heck, why not take a shot. Twins have a strong farm system so we can afford to take a shot. I'm assuming it takes at least one of Meyer/Berrios ++. Maybe Gibson and Berrios as a starting point? Still have Meyer, Thorpe, Kohl Stewart coming up and with 4/5 locked up with good to great veterans for two years the Twins can wait for those guys to develop. Meyer and May are as MLB ready as they're going to get. I get that it would push payroll up a lot but it's the one move that suddenly puts this team in contention. You put that rotation along with all the young talent that should be in the majors sometime this year in Buxton, Meyer, Sano, and Rosario the future should be now. I realize it's likely a pipe dream but I don't think it should be. I truly believe now's the time to go for it.

Now this may be thread jacking, not intended to be as it is towards the thought of "making a statement". Should the Twins go after Cole Hamels? and if so, at what cost? I think a starting point is likely either Berrios or Meyer and then add in a good MI and maybe 1-2 other lower ranked prospects? just as a starting point Meyer, Polanco, plus a C level prospect or two? Not going to focus too much on cost but think of what the team would look like with Hamels as our #1. Hamels, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson is a damn fine rotation to go along with a budding offense. Hamels wouldn't come cheap at all. Maybe we can ship out say Pelfrey to save a few bucks in the deal as well. Now that would be a statement I could get behind. If people want to discuss this further I can put it in a different thread too.