Kyle Gibson-Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth?

[Willihammer]

Do you believe they are similar talents and on similar career paths?

They seem like very similar talents to me.

 

If I had to put money on Gibson out performing his peripherals in the future, I would bet no. What is described as an "ability" to induce weak contact, over less than 300 IP, could just as easily be described as an "inability" to miss bats, IMO. I think the lack of stuff is going to catch up to him, eventually.

[Dantes929]

 

Close, but it was the other Gibson that holds that honor.

 

"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He is always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver.

Love that quote.   Maybe he is the unluckiest in that he only has 2/9 strikeouts.  Ever think of that?   I really like the way he pitches and agree that he seems to get ahead in the count and then gets the batters to hit his pitches.    Smart and good rather than lucky is my vote though I expect him to be in the 3-4 range rather than the 2-3 range. His history shows that when he is on his quality starts are not 3 runs in 6 innings but rather 6-7 innings with 0-1 run scored.   He is continuing that this year and I just don't think its luck.     

[Dantes929]

 

Average ERA for AL starters last year was 3.92. I think your filter to just qualified starters skews things a little bit. In the AL, there were 76 pitchers that made at least 15 starts. 43 had an ERA under 4.00, which would put Gibson in the ~40th percentile. 

 

That being said, i think Gibson is perfectly serviceable as a back-of-the-rotation starter, even on a contending team.

This is a distinction I would like to make and which I alluded to earlier.   Over the last 37 games he has 18 quality starts.    What is remarkable is that in only one of those quality starts has he given up 3 runs and even that was over 7 innings.   Not a one of those was the minimum qualifier of 3 runs in 6 innings and the vast majority were the 0-1 runs given up.    In other words half the time he has been ace like and half the time very poor.   I don't know how to interpret this but I have no problem with him facing other team's best pitchers and almost prefer because when he is on he will probably win and if he is off we probably lose to the other team's best if someone else is pitching and also would lose against almost anyone.   There is value in what he has brought and if he can just make his bad starts a little better he will be even more worthwhile.

[spinowner]

 

In other words half the time he has been ace like and half the time very poor.  

I'm not a pitching guru. Far from it. But knowledgeable people say that sinkerballers walk a fine line. Human beings are not machines that can be fine tuned to impart the exact optimal velocity and angular momentum to a baseball every time. The sinkerball is an extremely effective pitch but if the pitcher's mechanics are even slightly off it becomes a 90-mph straight ball, and we know what major leaguers do with those.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm not a pitching guru. Far from it. But knowledgeable people say that sinkerballers walk a fine line. Human beings are not machines that can be fine tuned to impart the exact optimal velocity and angular momentum to a baseball every time. The sinkerball is an extremely effective pitch but if the pitcher's mechanics are even slightly off it becomes a 90-mph straight ball, and we know what major leaguers do with those.

 

Gibson's sinkng fastball is usually 91-94, average this year is 91.8.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It shows our Gibby with 10 doubles and 2 homers. Probably more meaningful is the .248/.331/.365 slash line. Compared to the league, his BA is right at average, the OBP is a little high, the SLG a little low. I think that's what you were driving at, right?

Yeah, the slash line is more meaningful, I was just curious about the actual number of XBH and didn't want other hits polluting the number.

 

Thanks for digging that up, Ash.

[spinowner]

 

Gibson's sinkng fastball is usually 91-94, average this year is 91.8.

OK, then, edit my previous comment to a 91-94 straight ball. Excuuuuuuuuuuse me!

[bird]

My Uncle Arvid drives a Sierra.

[Dantes929]

 

Gibson's sinkng fastball is usually 91-94, average this year is 91.8.

Its still valid since I believe Blackburn hit those kind of numbers as well.   I don't think the Gibson/Blackburn comparisons are quite apt either though in the sense that Gibson seems to have a little more repertoire.  It is apt in the sense that Blackburn in the first couple years had some nice stretches also.

[tobi0040]

 

Its still valid since I believe Blackburn hit those kind of numbers as well.   I don't think the Gibson/Blackburn comparisons are quite apt either though in the sense that Gibson seems to have a little more repertoire.  It is apt in the sense that Blackburn in the first couple years had some nice stretches also.

 

Blackburn's career average fastball was 90.6. But the biggest thing is the other stuff.  I think Gibson's slider and now change are better than Blackburn's non-fastball.

[Dantes929]

 

Blackburn's career average fastball was 90.6. But the biggest thing is the other stuff.  I think Gibson's slider and now change are better than Blackburn's non-fastball.

Just remember in his later bad years he was hitting upwards of 95 but was getting shelled because it wasn't sinking and he wasn't mixing in any other pitches.   He was probably a lot more effective at 89 with more sink.  He had a decent curve but just never really threw it much.   Your comment about the other stuff is what I agree with and why I don't like the conclusion that Gibson has the same future as Blackburn or Correia.

[tobi0040]

 

Just remember in his later bad years he was hitting upwards of 95 but was getting shelled because it wasn't sinking and he wasn't mixing in any other pitches.   He was probably a lot more effective at 89 with more sink.  He had a decent curve but just never really threw it much.   Your comment about the other stuff is what I agree with and why I don't like the conclusion that Gibson has the same future as Blackburn or Correia.

 

I don't recall him throwing 95.  Here are his average fastballs by year:
 

2008 - 91.2

2009 - 90.6

2010 - 90.8

2011 - 89.7

2012 - 90.4

 

Agree with your conclusion.  Between his fastball and cutter he was throwing a fastball 70+ percent of the time.  His career swing and miss rate was 5.3%.  Even with the low k's, Gibson's career is 8.3%.

 

[USAFChief]

My Uncle Arvid drives a Sierra.

so it truly wasn't your father's Oldsmobile.

[jorgenswest]

Such a small sample size, I wondered if having an ERA under 3 and a K/9 ratio under 3 over 5-6 games is very frequent.

 

I didn't find a good way to do it with play index but I did get some results. I had to choose a month so Gibson doesn't even show up in the list since he did it across April/May. I also chose under 3 for both categories which limits the group more than it should since Gibson himself was barely under 3 and many on the list were well under 3 in one or both.

 

Going back 25 seasons there have been many instances of numbers like this. There would be many more if any streak of 6 games could be used.

 

Some players are on the list multiple times. Lost of groundball pitchers. Lots of lefties with Buehrle and Glavine making multiple appearances. Blackburn makes the list twice. Bob Welch, Derek Lowe, Mark Mulder, Jeremy Hellickson...

 

I think the ratio of pitchers with successful careers to AAAA pitchers is about the same as any random group.

 

[jokin]

Open letter to Kyle Gibson

 

Dear Kyle-

 

Tonight you made living proof that when it comes to baseball, oft-times it's better to be lucky than good.... because you weren't just lucky or good this evening, you were awesome.  And you threw so well late in your appearance, while your defense rose to the challenge to have your back early on, that I don't even mind that the team came up on the short end for the night.  From 6 Ks & 0 BBs, to that incredibly athletic completion of the 3-6-1 DP in the 5th to somehow nipping Gose at 1B,  to ultimately watching that sinker and that change up dance, dazzle and deny Detroit hitters in the 6th and 7th innings, including striking out 5 of the last 6 hitters, this might have been the most memorable non-Hughes performance by a Twins starter in many years.  More of these kind of games and we can just delete this thread completely.

 

Just Jokin

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah he actually struggled a little in the first few innings. Some well hit balls. A few guys had some real long at bats, fouling off bunches of pitches. You wondered to yourself how far he will go in the majors without a true strikeout pitch.

 

And then those last couple innings were a clinic. Guys were just baffled from all those fastballs early on and it got in their heads. They were flailing at that sinker ball. Gibson was toying with them.

[HitInAPinch]

 

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Ain't that the truth!  I had to lookup SIERA.  From Baseball Prospectus:  "Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average estimates ERA through walk rate, strikeout rate and ground ball rate, eliminating the effects of park, defense and luck."  WHAT??  LOL!!

 

Someone later in this threat brought up XBH:  "also known as a long hit, is any base hit on which the batter is able to advance past first base without the benefit of a fielder either committing an error or opting to make a throw to retire another base runner (see fielder's choice)."  Again:  WHAT??

 

Just too many statistics now!  I'm more of a 'see ball, hit ball' kinda guy.  I believe in the theory of KISS. 

Yes, I'm probably older than most of you posting

 

Sinkerball pitchers usually don't pitch that well coming out of Spring Training.  Theory is:  they're too strong.  As the summer heats up and as a sinkerballer tires out a bit, they stop "overthrowing" a sinkerball really starts to sink.  I expect better out of Gibson over the next few weeks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sinkerball pitchers usually don't pitch that well coming out of Spring Training.  Theory is:  they're too strong.  As the summer heats up and as a sinkerballer tires out a bit, they stop "overthrowing" a sinkerball really starts to sink.  I expect better out of Gibson over the next few weeks.

I've heard that before too, but I wonder if anyone has ever confirmed it.  It didn't seem to apply to Gibson much the past two years, or the aforementioned Blackburn in 2008-2009.