Article: According To Plan

[Nick Nelson]

For the Minnesota Twins, the blueprint this year was simple: stay afloat until midseason and give yourself a chance to make things interesting in the final months.

 

That's more or less true for every team, but especially so for a Twins club that figures to receive significant reinforcements midway through the summer, in the form of impact prospects and a suspended No. 2 starter.

 

After a 1-6 start where they looked completely inadequate in every aspect of the game, simply remaining relevant appeared a tall task. But to the credit of rookie manager Paul Molitor and his resilient group, the Twins are back above .500 just three weeks later.The story of the season so far has been improved pitching. It's strange to look at the rankings for American League teams across various pitching categories and NOT see the Twins at the bottom. Out of 15 AL clubs, Minnesota is eighth in ERA and ninth in WHIP. Not great, but not abysmal, and with the offense starting to come together after a slow start, it's an equation that has produced a 12-6 record since the ugly start, even with half their games coming against the two top teams in the division.

 

In spite of their present groove, the Twins are a team with very apparent weaknesses. But when you look at the areas that most plainly need to be addressed, solutions seem to line up rather conveniently within the organization.

 

They need a legitimate leadoff hitter, with Danny Santana showing no semblance of plate discipline. They also need a center fielder. Byron Buxton, after a slow start, is on a scorching hot tear in Double-A and profiles as an ideal specimen in both roles.

 

They need a DH and cleanup hitter, with Kennys Vargas looking like he may not be up to the task for the time being. Josmil Pinto is hitting very well in Triple-A and Miguel Sano, shaking off the rust following a missed year, hit his fifth home run for Chattanooga on Sunday.

 

They could use some difference-makers at the top of the rotation. Jose Berrios is flashing tremendous stuff in Double-A and Ervin Santana will return in July.

 

They will require some extra juice in the bullpen as they go along. There are plenty of arms in the high minors with the potential to add that.

 

The buzz of a four-game sweep can skew perceptions a little bit, and in reality the Twins are not as good as their record over the past three weeks suggests. But the big takeaways are that they are healthy, they appear to have enough pitching to at least stay in games on a regular basis, and with a full month in the books, they're a game above .500.

 

The Twins are getting better as they move along, and that figures to continue going forward with quality players set to enter the mix and fill areas of need during the course of the summer.

 

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[drock2190]

Swap out Vargas and Pinto. 

 

Bring up that Lester dude to pitch in the pen. 

 

Do it now....

[h2oface]

I truly am not fond of Ervin Santana being described as "a No. 2 starter". If that is the standard for a No. 2 in this organization, the Twins will continue to be in trouble. I can get exited and hopeful about May, Meyer, and Berrios, but signings like Santana and Nolasco always leave me scratching my head before I bang it against the wall. With Arcia limping out of the box down to first base, today, and then pulled from the game, Hicks may be the first of the wave to come this year. 

[spinowner]

I disagree with the premise of the opening post. The blueprint this year is to continue rebuilding this team for 2016 and beyond. What would make things interesting in the final months of this season has nothing to do with the team's win-loss record. It would be seeing continuing improvement by our best young prospects.

[JB_Iowa]

I disagree with the premise of the opening post. The blueprint this year is to continue rebuilding this team for 2016 and beyond. What would make things interesting in the final months of this season has nothing to do with the team's win-loss record. It would be seeing continuing improvement by our best young prospects.

While I think part of the plan is to continue rebuilding, I think the other part is to put butts in the seats for most of the summer. It's a balancing act and the last week or so must be a great relief.

[nicksaviking]

Great post, but I think many people are overlooking all the giant Catch-22s this team is about to walk into. Yes, many of the prospects are turning it on, but so are many of the players at the MLB level and now the club is winning. I can't imagine anyone thinks this club can actually contend with the unimpressive stable of starters they currently have, or with Robinson in center, but will the team really replace these guys if it's currently working?

 

Will the Twins really call up Sano and reposition Trevor Plouffe who is a better defender at 3rd? Even if Polanco ends up playing better than Dozier and Santana, can the club find the guts bench one of them if they are both adequate and the team is .500?

 

I think this club is so starved for winning, they'll sacrifice future development for a shot at a wild card bid, even if it's a long shot.

Edited May 4, 2015 by nicksaviking

[USAFChief]

I disagree with the premise of the opening post. The blueprint this year is to continue rebuilding this team for 2016 and beyond. What would make things interesting in the final months of this season has nothing to do with the team's win-loss record. It would be seeing continuing improvement by our best young prospects.

W-L record and development aren't mutually exclusive.

[troyhobbs]

They're beating the bad teams at least. That's a step in the right direction.

[stringer bell]

Agree with the sentiments of Chief and JB.  All moves should be ones that not only help now, but build a more solid team down the road.  As I've said from spring training on, it isn't out of the question that the Twins will contend in 2015, but the odds are against it. 

 

Luck tends to even out, and I have thought for a while that the club has had more than their share of bad luck.  The Twins were lucky to play Chicago at exactly the right time.  Perhaps more of that is in their future. 

 

I am still hoping for meaningful games throughout the season. 

[Brananorama]

 

Will the Twins really call up Sano and reposition Trevor Plouffe who is a better defender at 3rd? Even if Polanco ends up playing better than Dozier and Santana, can the club find the guts bench one of them if they are both adequate and the team is .500?

 

The interesting thing about the endless Sano+Plouffe conversation is that Sano will be up sooner rather than later and neither guy is getting taught a different position.

[Willihammer]

They're beating the bad teams at least. That's a step in the right direction.

Yeah. That Seattle club went on to get swept by the Astros in a 4 game series. They look awful so far.

The Whities can't seem to block a pitch to save their lives and their bats have been worse than the Twins' so far.

Next 3 series should be tougher tests: A's, Indians, and Tigers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure we should be suggesting they call up Sano.  His average is well below the Mendoza line in AA right now.  Yeah, he's got the home runs, but not much else.  I'd call up Walker before Sano right now and I think Walker needs a lot more time too.  Pinto is the best solution at DH presently.  He can catch too (and I'd argue he needs to on a somewhat consistent basis).   Buxton is heating up.  I'd probably let him go for another month and move him to AAA after Hicks is promoted (which if he keeps hitting will have to happen). 

[spinowner]

 

W-L record and development aren't mutually exclusive.

Concur, but the W-L record is of minor concern. If they happen to win more games than expected this year, fine. But they should not trade a prospect, ANY prospect, to improve this year's record.

[spinowner]

 

While I think part of the plan is to continue rebuilding, I think the other part is to put butts in the seats for most of the summer. It's a balancing act and the last week or so must be a great relief.

In the same way that sacrificing a few wins this year for the sake of player development could mean more wins in the future, sacrificing a few butts this year could mean more butts in the future.

[Blackjack]

 

In the same way that sacrificing a few wins this year for the sake of player development could mean more wins in the future, sacrificing a few butts this year could mean more butts in the future.

The Twins know that another losing team means empty seats at Target Field, less $8 beers and $10 hotdogs sold, thats one of the reason they went out and signed Nolasco and Santana instead of playing the young starters like Myers.

[laloesch]

Buxton has looked a lot better lately.  I'd like to see the Twins send Berrios and Buxton to Rochester in a couple of weeks.  Not to change the subject but has anyone been paying attention to Taylor Rodgers?  Guy is off to a good start in AAA.

Edited May 4, 2015 by laloesch

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The interesting thing about the endless Sano+Plouffe conversation is that Sano will be up sooner rather than later and neither guy is getting taught a different position.

 

I agree that this will be an issue in the long term, but if they wanted to get Sano's feet wet in the majors later in the summer (and I don't think they should be in a hurry to do that yet), it can work for a partial season. If they think he's ready for a trial, Sano can be a part-time starter for a few months without it hurting his development. Rotate him in at DH and let him start a few games at 3B while Plouffe rests or takes a spot start at 1B or LF. Sano could take Nunez' spot and you wouldn't miss much besides a third-string shortstop. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think this is about when Trout was promoted.......

 

I agree this was the plan. Never thought it was the right plan, we'll know a lot more in another 6 weeks or so.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not sure we should be suggesting they call up Sano. 

 

I think a lot of people are still Ooo-ing an Ahhh-ing about Sano's Spring Training BP HR's.  I'm concerned he's still swinging for those in the games.  Reality is Sano's .162 BA is very concerning. 

[HitInAPinch]

I'm thinking [ doing a lot of that this morning   ] that Plouffe is performing better because he's feeling challenged more by being the regular cleanup hitter.  Sometimes, it's a pride thing....

 

[chopper0080]

After looking as awful as they have, looking like an average MLB team is a nice change.  The SP has been as advertised despite the injuries.  I still believe it is a bit silly to expect Buxton to come up, and set the world on fire.  That being said, if he brings defense, that is a great place to start.  It will be an awesome problem to have if Sano is pushing his way up, and Plouffe is still raking (hopefully end of this year or next year).    Arcia seems destined to the DH spot, especially if Vargas keeps playing like this, but that is ok.

 

Hopefully the bullpen can get worked out by the end of the season as well.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think a lot of people are still Ooo-ing an Ahhh-ing about Sano's Spring Training BP HR's.  I'm concerned he's still swinging for those in the games.  Reality is Sano's .162 BA is very concerning. 

Is it though? He's coming off a full missed season, he still has a 700+ OPS and his K-rate is pretty standard. I wouldn't say it's really all that concerning.

 

 

Buxton has looked a lot better lately.  I'd like to see the Twins send Berrios and Buxton to Rochester in a couple of weeks.  Not to change the subject but has anyone been paying attention to Taylor Rodgers?  Guy is off to a good start in AAA.

Milone is next in line for a shot at the rotation, but Rogers might be after him. The Twins have been high on this kid for a while and he has looked terrific at Triple-A.

 

 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I don't think Sano is ready or will be for most of the year - but the good news is that Plouffe is playing All-Star and Gold Glove level third base.   

 

Buxton may appear sooner, but I am not sure it will be a mid-season playoff push promotion. I still think he is a late season call up.  He has had a good week, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 

Think it is more likely that Hicks makes it up before both of them.  His numbers are solid, if unremarkable.  If they hold up for another month, I think we will see him up with the club.

 

[Mike Sixel]

If you aren't calling up an Elite prospect by July.....I can't see burning a year of control to get him a sniff. IMO, he's either up before August, or it's another year.

[rghrbek]

I believe the Twins were 12 and 12 at this time the last two years (according to Ruesse), so my guess is in late June, we will not have to be worrying about wild card vs. rebuilding.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Is it though? He's coming off a full missed season, he still has a 700+ OPS and his K-rate is pretty standard. I wouldn't say it's really all that concerning.

 

 

Milone is next in line for a shot at the rotation, but Rogers might be after him. The Twins have been high on this kid for a while and he has looked terrific at Triple-A.

Yup, Sano's K% is his standard fare, his BB% is actually better than his previous rates, and his ISO is only marginally below previous seasons' ISOs.  HIS BABIP of .156 is mostly what is dragging him down. That could be bad luck or it could be rust leading to fewer line drives and well hit fly balls, or probably, some of both. Sano will be fine, but the fact that Plouffe is raking gives the Twins all the more reason not to rush him at this point. In fact, if we had to pick Buxton or Sano to struggle, Sano is obviously preferable given how well Plouffe is playing. Robinson is much more likely to regress significantly than Plouffe.

Edited May 4, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[drivlikejehu]

I don't see what evidence there is that the Twins really have a plan or that, to the extent they did have one, the current season is conforming to it. 

 

It's a long season. You don't get a prize for being .500 in May. Of course it beats getting off to a bad start, but we've been down this road before.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

I don't see what evidence there is that the Twins really have a plan or that, to the extent they did have one, the current season is conforming to it. 

 

It's a long season. You don't get a prize for being .500 in May. Of course it beats getting off to a bad start, but we've been down this road before.

 

I don't know. It seems to me the plan is pretty self-evident.

 

1. Pick up some guys to keep the beer and hot dogs selling (you can agree or disagree if these were the guys you wanted, but they were purchased).

 

2. Watch the development of the minors for some mid to late-season calls ups.

 

3. Tread water near .500.

 

4. Likely be out of the playoff hunt, and if all goes okay, trade Milone, Hunter, Stauffer, Boyer, and any other marginal player, if possible.

 

5. September: Call up youth (keep the hot dogs and beer selling even though the season is over).

 

6. 2016: Sell hope for the future. 

 

Seems like the plan.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2015 by LimestoneBaggy

[Willihammer]

Just because they collapsed last year in the 2nd half doesn't mean they will this year. Every year there are a couple teams who go .900 in 1 run games and outperform their pythag by 10+ games, maybe the Twins are that team this year.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't know. It seems to me the plan is pretty self-evident.

 

1. Pick up some guys to keep the beer and hot dogs selling (you can agree or disagree if these were the guys you wanted, but they were purchased).

 

2. Watch the development of the minors for some mid to late-season calls ups.

 

3. Tread water near .500.

 

4. Likely be out of the playoff hunt, and if all goes okay, trade Milone, Hunter, Stauffer, Boyer, and any other marginal player, if possible.

 

5. September: Call up youth (keep the hot dogs and beer selling even though the season is over).

 

6. 2016: Sell hope for the future. 

 

Seems like the plan.

 

 

Limestone Baggy sees this season clearly without blue & red tinted glasses. Reasons to be cautious and not go overboard on this year so far:

 

We've seen Plouffe have these hot streaks before, and we've also seen him disappear off the face of the earth for weeks at a time. I really hope he can stay consistent, but there hasn't been any evidence in his MLB career so far to say he will.

 

Twins W-L record on this date (May 4th) over the last 5 seasons:

2010 - 18-9 (last contending season)

2011 - 11-18

2012 - 7-18

2013 - 12-14

2014 - 14-15

2015 - 13-12

 

we've seemed to be competitive around this time since 2013, but as we all know it didn't turn out to be the case.

 

If I am wrong I will gladly eat crow, but I still need to be convinced that the current roster on hand is a part of a master plan to be competing for a playoff spot this season.