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Of course, not all superstar shortstops would have been a fit for the Minnesota Twins. Carlos Correa was the most logical candidate, given that he played for them on what was ultimately a one-year deal during the 2022 season. That said, he still explored deals with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, so when the Twins eventually brought him back, it was after both sides had considered other avenues.
Just past the midway point of the 2024 season, Correa leads Minnesota in fWAR at 2.9, and would be more than worthy of an All-Star selection. Where does that rank amongst those who signed similar long-term deals around that time?
Corey Seager - 10 years, $325 million (2022-31)
Nothing else matters when you win a World Series, right? Seager, paired with Marcus Semien, helped the Texas Rangers win it all during just the second season of his deal. He was an All-Star in year one, and repeated that feat last year. Though he did miss time and played in just 119 games during 2023, he posted a career-best 174 OPS+ and finished second in the American League MVP voting. He’s having a more pedestrian season (by his standards) in 2024, but has still been worth 1.8 fWAR. Two and a half years into his deal, Seager has already been worth $97.1 million. While he’ll age and eventually move off shortstop, this deal was a win for both parties.
Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177 million (2023-29)
Swanson is the same age as Seager, playing 2024 at 30 years old. He was exactly average offensively with the Cubs last year, and he has posted just an 85 OPS+ in 2024. The Cubs are among baseball’s biggest disappointments this season, and Swanson is part of that problem. He is currently rocking an on-base percentage below .300 for the first time in his career, and the production across the board leaves plenty to be desired. Swanson hasn’t shown the same defensive acumen this year either, and that saps a significant amount of his value. Generating just $47.8 million of value thus far, he’ll need to rebound with more years like 2023 as he ages. That seems unlikely.
Trea Turner - 11 years, $300 million (2023-33)
After being named to his second all-star team in 2022, and finishing just outside the top 10 for National League MVP honors, Turner signed fairly quickly with Philadelphia. The Phillies hoped they were getting a superstar. Despite Philadelphia’s success in 2023, though, it wasn’t largely reflective of Turner’s presence. His 109 OPS+ wasn’t anything to write home about, and while he launched 26 homers, other areas of his production dipped. He has picked things back up in a big way during the 2024 season, and his 137 OPS+ is well above his career average. Turner has missed a good chunk of time, though, playing in just 45 games, and he has only three dingers on the year. Having provided $48.7 million of value thus far, Turner will need to age well (and he's already 31 years old) if he is going to make good on his deal.
Trevor Story - 6 years, $140 million (2022-27)
Signed during the same offseason when Minnesota agreed to terms with Correa for the first time, Story, too, was a late acquisition by the Boston Red Sox. Leaving Colorado always yields skepticism on the open market, as teams worry about how much of a player's production was fueled by the thin air. Playing second base in his first season with Boston, since Xander Bogaerts was entrenched at shortstop, he posted just a 102 OPS+ and played in only 94 games. Last year resulted in an even worse 43 games with a 52 OPS+, and his 2024 season ended after just eight games. Having been worth just $22.7 million through three years, the deal couldn’t possibly look worse. Both injury and ineffectiveness have been the narratives.
Javier Báez - 6 years, $140 million (2022-27)
After signing the same deal as Story, Báez has found a way to play more and be worth less. The Detroit Tigers felt like they were trending upward, and providing manager A.J. Hinch with a star in the form of Báez made a decent amount of sense. Following his 117 OPS+ split between the Mets and Cubs in 2021, Báez was going to command a premium on the open market. Unfortunately, a 91 OPS+ in 2022 has been the highwater mark for his tenure with the Tigers. Báez is currently one of the worst hitters in baseball, and despite a 29 OPS+ in 2024, his 53 games played is still indicative of earning regular playing time. He has generated just $12.3 million of value, and that number will continue to go down the more he costs his team.
Signing long-term deals in free agency is always going to be a risky endeavor. Players hit the open market either during or after their prime. Correa was scrutinized for an ankle injury that has yet to be a problem, but production will always lag as age creeps upward. So far, Correa has been something that both the Mets and Giants wish they had. He hasn’t brought a World Series to Minnesota, yet, but he is the youngest of this group, at just 29 years old. His contract should be viewed as better than everyone not named Seager to this point, and that’s a great reality for the Twins.
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