The Twins Should Hope Ryan Jeffers Accepts His Qualifying Offer

[MeleMouth]

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

[bjorks]

Here's an interesting twist depending on how far away you think we are from contending. Contending = minimum of ALCS

If you think we can win the Central and make a run over the next 2-3 years, what would it take in return for Lackey? Far fetched I know, but if Team X makes an overwhelming deal, would you sign Jeffers to a say 4/$62 and replenish the minors? Let's say the Cubs offered Hartshorn, Wiggins, Alcantara, and filler? Point being if they believe in Tait, I wonder what the haul would be on Lackey or even a lesser package for Tait.

I'd be very tempted to at least pick up the phone and listen, especially if you could get Jeffers on a small discount in exchange for length. Not suggesting we do it, but I'd be tempted if I thought we could make a run. 

[bean5302]

Analytical models are far, far less optimistic on Jeffers. A 4yr $75MM contract for a 2 WAR player would defy pretty much all historical precedent, but you never know.

I certainly wouldn't go over 3yrs $40MM for him, and that assumes there being no NTC so the Twins could move him in a year or two. There are a ton of catchers out there who have been just as good, they're not just "free agents."

[HarmanWithAnA]

1 hour ago, Coach Wheels said:

By math, $75 million is greater than $23 million. He'll pass.

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

[jmlease1]

I've been of the position that the QO with Jeffers was a no-lose proposition. If he accepts (which I consider unlikely) they get the quality RH bat at a position where offense is scarce for one more season, and there's just not that much downside to a 1 year deal, even if it is an overpay. It's the overpays on 3-5 year deals that sink you.

If he declines, we get the pick. Which is the most likely scenario, unless you're foolish enough to listen to Jim Bowden, who has an incredible record of being wrong all the damn time and then pretending he was right all along.

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, HarmanWithAnA said:

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

it's possible, but he'll be a year older at a position where players don't usually age well. He'll be taking an injury risk, and coming off a season where he had an injury that caused him to miss significant time he'd then be bearing the dreaded "injury risk" title if he goes back to back on injury years. It's not like Jeffers had a rep for durability, even if some of that was just the Twins choice in trying to protect him. The age-31 contract might be 3 for $45M...or 2 for $30M.

Of course, if he crushes the 2026 season with a 4 bWAR outing...then it's not an overpay and he gets a bigger deal.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

Jhonny Pereda batted .300 in 90 AB's for Seattle this year.  Better alternative than Caratini and Alex Jackson.  Just saying.  Low-risk investment.

There's a reason Pereda never had a MLB at bat until a day before his 28th birthday.  His career OPS+ is 90 in very light duty, and there is a good argument even that level of offensive output isn't sustainable if he were a full-timer.

Catchers with a bat like Jeffers' do not grow on trees.

The QO is an overpay but that's the failure tax they keep paying (Caratini, Vazquez before him) for having developed no worthwhile starting catcher since Jeffers himself.

[Chembry]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

MLBTR has not always been correct. Jeffers has 6 years of not above 90 games caught. I have not seen a 4 year contract nor a 16 million contract given to an over 30 part time catcher 

You're right.  They aren't always correct.  They may be off in total years, close in terms of AAV.   But more often than not, they are within a few million in terms of AAV. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

By math, $75 million is greater than $23 million. He'll pass.

Careful. We've been told there would be no math. 😀

[tony&rodney]

41 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

Agree the Twins are willing to take that gamble. Jeffers accepting puts the current roster well over the number used in the Blueprint. That means no additions. 

As far as losing draft choices .... that seems like the cost of failing to trade Joe Ryan for the rumored deal to the Red Sox and holding guys like Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Jeffers instead of trading them. 

Relief pitchers are notoriously variable but the best are pretty solid. Bednar and Morejon have been reliable, which is no guarantee for the future. The Twins made some choices and will need to be very proactive to reach 81 wins again. Free agents do not cost players within the current system. Losing the third and fourth picks is a tough outcome but rolling into 2027 with no additions would make winning 76 games again a tough battle. I think the Twins need to sign one top bullpen pitcher. Either that or as a few people have advocated the club needs to look to 2028 and 2029.

 

[MackMan]

50 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The Twins will be fine with Jeffers accepting the QO. They wouldn't have offered to him if they weren't. A one-year overpay for a position of need isn't the worst thing.

A bigger issue for people who want the Twins to upgrade the bullpen through free agency is that Bednar and Morejon also got QOs. The Twins should be loath to give up draft choices for signing a free agent, especially for a position as variable as reliever and could cost $15-$16M apiece per year for several years.

And that's a perfect model of demand and supply. This year is a weak FA market, especially given that there aren't very many catchers worth their own weight. Good catchers get snagged up pretty quick and usually locked down long-term. That is why the Twins are willing to overpay for a premium position that is usually defense first. 

Now the other argument can be made because he's a Boras client.. Boras himself is gonna argue that he deserves more because he's a bat first catcher that can bring your team X wins based on the current market, WAR and WPA, or whatever he'll use to best leverage his client. And some team will pay him for his services, the biggest thing is just how much is going to be shelled out for his game. And if it comes to a battle of bidding, I feel as if the Twins are gonna lose out, regardless of what team is bidding. 

[Chembry]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Analytical models are far, far less optimistic on Jeffers. A 4yr $75MM contract for a 2 WAR player would defy pretty much all historical precedent, but you never know.

I certainly wouldn't go over 3yrs $40MM for him, and that assumes there being no NTC so the Twins could move him in a year or two. There are a ton of catchers out there who have been just as good, they're not just "free agents."

JT Realmuto coming off a 2.5 WAR season, playing in 134g got 3yr/$45M ($15M AAV)...and he was 34 at the time of signing.

Willson Contreras signed for 5yr/$87.5M ($17.5M AAV) coming off a 3.8 WAR season playing in 113g. He got that contract with similar defensive concerns as Jeffers and with the QO attached.  If you compare Contreras' offensive stats through his first 1604 plate appearances to Jeffers 1693 plate appearances since 2023, their stats are almost identical:

Jeffers: .254/.342/.440 

Contreras: .249/.349/.467

Jeffers put up 2.8WAR (according BBref) in 92 games, which was down due to the hamate injury.  If you extrapolate that 2.8 WAR out to 120g, which is about where Jeffers was the previous 2 years, that puts him at 3.65 WAR.  He is far and away the best FA catcher on the market.  

Personally, I am not saying he will get 4/$75M, but I do think he will be closer to the MLBTR number than the Fangraphs number.  Only time will tell.

[DJL44]

Using a dumb projection model, Jeffers looks like 2.5, 2.0, 1.5. 1.0 for a total of 7 WAR over 4 years. That has a market value of $56M.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, Chembry said:

JT Realmuto coming off a 2.5 WAR season, playing in 134g got 3yr/$45M ($15M AAV)...and he was 34 at the time of signing.

Willson Contreras signed for 5yr/$87.5M ($17.5M AAV) coming off a 3.8 WAR season playing in 113g. He got that contract with similar defensive concerns as Jeffers and with the QO attached.  If you compare Contreras' offensive stats through his first 1604 plate appearances to Jeffers 1693 plate appearances since 2023, their stats are almost identical:

Jeffers: .254/.342/.440 

Contreras: .249/.349/.467

Jeffers put up 2.8WAR (according BBref) in 92 games, which was down due to the hamate injury.  If you extrapolate that 2.8 WAR out to 120g, which is about where Jeffers was the previous 2 years, that puts him at 3.65 WAR.  He is far and away the best FA catcher on the market.  

Personally, I am not saying he will get 4/$75M, but I do think he will be closer to the MLBTR number than the Fangraphs number.  Only time will tell.

Jeffers just had a career year at age 29 (similar to Contreras before his free agency) . If you look at Jeffers last 3 years, he's averaging 2.1 fWAR per year. He had 2.6 fWAR last year.

Contreras was coming off a 3.5 fWAR season when he got his contract. 3.5 vs. 2.6 is a substantial difference in free agent value, Contreras was averaging 2.6 fWAR per year over the previous 3 seasons, and production becomes much different on a per plate appearance basis. 151 PA per WAR for Contreras, 209 PA per WAR per WAR (Contreras 30% better than Jeffers), and Contreras had a more consistent bat both in a production and approach. I view Contreras as a poor direct comparison for Jeffers, but YMMV.

MLBTR 4yrs $75MM
Fangraphs 3yrs $47MM
Spotrac 3yrs $40MM
Ogilvie 2yrs $19MM
Athletic 2yrs $15.5MM (Jim Bowden)
 

[HerbieFan]

4 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

 IMO, it's best for both parties if he declines. For Jeffers, he had a very good 1st half before his injury IMO, teams will take that into consideration; giving him a good chance of landing a pretty good multi-year contract. Why gamble on a one year contract to try to copy the same results? He could get hurt & have a terrible walk year. And for the Twins, they'll grossly overpay for one year of Jeffers; hamstringing their payrole & one year isn't enough to cover the time needed until Lackey is ready, I'd trade for someone good that can be around for at least 2yrs.. Plus, Twins receive another high draft pick

  This pretty sums up where I'm at...

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

MLBTR 4yrs $75MM
Fangraphs 3yrs $47MM
Spotrac 3yrs $40MM

I think Fangraphs and Spotrac are correct on the per year number of $13-15M a season. I think Jeffers will get 4 years $53-$60M.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree the Twins are willing to take that gamble. Jeffers accepting puts the current roster well over the number used in the Blueprint. That means no additions. 

As far as losing draft choices .... that seems like the cost of failing to trade Joe Ryan for the rumored deal to the Red Sox and holding guys like Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Jeffers instead of trading them. 

Relief pitchers are notoriously variable but the best are pretty solid. Bednar and Morejon have been reliable, which is no guarantee for the future. The Twins made some choices and will need to be very proactive to reach 81 wins again. Free agents do not cost players within the current system. Losing the third and fourth picks is a tough outcome but rolling into 2027 with no additions would make winning 76 games again a tough battle. I think the Twins need to sign one top bullpen pitcher. Either that or as a few people have advocated the club needs to look to 2028 and 2029.

 

Best case outcome if they sign Bednar and Morejon would be to change 2027 from 75 wins to 79-80 wins.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The QO is an overpay but that's the failure tax they keep paying (Caratini, Vazquez before him) for having developed no worthwhile starting catcher since Jeffers himself.

And for failing to negotiate with Jeffers two years ago when he was cheaper. When teams let it play out, sometimes the money works out, sometimes it doesn't.

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

MLBTR has not always been correct. Jeffers has 6 years of not above 90 games caught. I have not seen a 4 year contract nor a 16 million contract given to an over 30 part time catcher 

Exactly six catchers started 100 games last year, and only twelve started 90.  And I have to tell you, the vast majority of those high inning guys were not hitters. #2 Contreras was a stud through October and constitutes an amazing outlier.  #3 Dingler were above average, but in Dingler's final 37 games his OPS was only .388 (5 extra base hits in 140 AB.)  #5 Stevenson started 104 games but after Sept 1 he had a .565 OPS in his last 21 games. Below 100 games we had #7 Montero in AZ, #8 Jenson in KC, #9 Goodman in DEN were all good through the entire year.  But I skipped a lot of catchers who didn't hit much at all and half the ones who were OK were in tatters by the time summer vacation ended.

The notion of "full-time catchers" starting 140 games and hitting like Ivan Rodriquez are gone.  Realmuto (by a wide margin) has been the only guy in recent memory to regularly start 130 games, and he got paid for it handsomely because it is so rare.  Cal Raleigh catches a lot, but completely broke down this year after his huge 2025.  Others come and go, but generally since Yadi Molina ten years ago few players reach 120 starts with any frequency. (Sal Perez in KC only started 100 games six times in 15 years, for example.)

Full time is 90-120 games in modern baseball, and you need at least three catchers to get through a season.  That is exactly why you don't see much top money going to the position, because like relievers you need a bunch of them and can only afford one closer in your catching bullpen. 

[Heiny]

This is a very unique situation for the Twins.  For the Twins to offer Jeffers the QO and by not trading Joe Ryan at the trade deadline, this "should" indicate that the Twins are seriously looking to contend in 2027.  With Tom P. stating that they are going to increase payroll also indicating their plan to contend.   So, hoping that Jeffers will accept, especially with the lack of good options, and expecting the Twins to also sign a couple of high end RP's should be what we are all hoping for.  Also, since draft picks outside of the top ten are almost always an extreme crapshoot, overpaying for a very good hitting catcher for just one year is, to me, a very good gamble.  but only if you are serious about contending.  Another thing to consider is that it is highly, no, very highly doubtful that the Twins will sign any other players that were offered the QO, that puts Bednar and Morejohn out of reach.  Yes, there are other reliable high end relievers out there and the Twins should be aggresive in that market.  Now add another high end SP to the mix through FA or the trade market and you may be looking at 160M payroll.  Do they really want to compete?  IMHO this is what it will take. 

[Cris E]

Oh, and we should get together with Jeffers' team and bang out a 3/$45m deal to set his market. If NYY or someone wants to go four then let them and we'll take the draft pick, otherwise we have Clemens for 1B in 2027 and Jeffers can transition to a time share there in 2028 as Lackey starts his career and we don't sign an outside 1B this winter.  If he leaves we go get Bauers for 1B and pick up some parts for 27 and half of 28. 

Also worth noting that Caratini was a league average hitter until this season, so he could bounce back.  His big hot streak this summer was when he was catching full time during Jeffers' time away. 

[Road trip]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins should already be in negotiations to win the Ryan Jeffers free agency bidding for a longer term contract. 1yr $23MM is a bad deal. It's a massive overpay for Jeffers' 2 WAR talent. 16 catchers last year essentially matched Ryan Jeffers' expected annual production.

Ryan Jeffers is an average MLB starting catcher. The Twins could have acquired Adley Rutschman last year who is better, and under team control next year eliminating the need for this QO to be made, but there wasn't any future planning involved.

I think Ryan Jeffers is 50/50 to turn down the QO. Market estimates have been markedly lower than I expected with about $15MM AAV topping the list I've seen and shorter terms than I expected to see. It reflects Jeffers overall value, rather than teams being willing to pay an ultra premium for scarcity on the free agent market.

But... if 1 WAR equals approximately 8 million of market value (that seems to be the sabermetric consensus), then Jeffers in 2026 was worth approximately 8 * 2.8 BWAR = 22.4 million.  So, the QO is right in range for his 2026 production.

You could certainly argue that Jeffers isn't necessarily likely to match last year's production, but I don't know it is a massive overpay.

This year's free agent market may be an odd one, with a labor stoppage likely, but $15MM AAV would be a bargain for Jeffers if he can continue to match his 2026 production, especially given the fact that there are no other good catchers on the market.

FWIW, MLBTR projects Jeffers to earn 4 years/ 75 mil.  That seems high to me, but it is another data point.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It would give them one more veteran to sell in July. 
 

If Jeffers accepts, they will be out of money to improve the team and we will see them run it back with the same roster.

They'd only be out of money if Tom Pohlad was lying about spending this offseason. And if he was, than it doesn't matter what the Twins do the money. They might as well just flush it down the toilet because it should be a year to play the cheap young players anyway. 

But in either case, they're not 'running it back'.  The improvement for this club is going to be from removing the wasted 2K plate appearances from Lewis, Martin, Caratini, Kreidler, Gray, Wallner, Outman and Arcia.

 

[Twins GFP]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Jeffers just had a career year at age 29 (similar to Contreras before his free agency) . If you look at Jeffers last 3 years, he's averaging 2.1 fWAR per year. He had 2.6 fWAR last year.

Contreras was coming off a 3.5 fWAR season when he got his contract. 3.5 vs. 2.6 is a substantial difference in free agent value, Contreras was averaging 2.6 fWAR per year over the previous 3 seasons, and production becomes much different on a per plate appearance basis. 151 PA per WAR for Contreras, 209 PA per WAR per WAR (Contreras 30% better than Jeffers), and Contreras had a more consistent bat both in a production and approach. I view Contreras as a poor direct comparison for Jeffers, but YMMV.

MLBTR 4yrs $75MM
Fangraphs 3yrs $47MM
Spotrac 3yrs $40MM
Ogilvie 2yrs $19MM
Athletic 2yrs $15.5MM (Jim Bowden)
 

ESPN 3yrs $51MM

[Woof Bronzer]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But in either case, they're not 'running it back'.  The improvement for this club is going to be from removing the wasted 2K plate appearances from Lewis, Martin, Caratini, Kreidler, Gray, Wallner, Outman and Arcia.

Are they removing those PAs though?  

In 2025 the Twins got 0.6 cumulative WAR in roughly 2K PAs by Larnach, Lewis, Wallner, and Lee and "ran it back" with all 4 of them.  

[rickyp]

I'd love to see him back on a 3 year deal. And hopefully by that third year he'll be back up catching, 1st base, dh, all around above average bat to complement whichever of our catching youngsters comes good.

[JBK]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

There's a reason Pereda never had a MLB at bat until a day before his 28th birthday.  His career OPS+ is 90 in very light duty, and there is a good argument even that level of offensive output isn't sustainable if he were a full-timer.

Catchers with a bat like Jeffers' do not grow on trees.

The QO is an overpay but that's the failure tax they keep paying (Caratini, Vazquez before him) for having developed no worthwhile starting catcher since Jeffers himself.

I'm advocating for a backup catcher.  Not an alternative to Ryan Jeffers.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Exactly six catchers started 100 games last year, and only twelve started 90.  And I have to tell you, the vast majority of those high inning guys were not hitters. #2 Contreras was a stud through October and constitutes an amazing outlier.  #3 Dingler were above average, but in Dingler's final 37 games his OPS was only .388 (5 extra base hits in 140 AB.)  #5 Stevenson started 104 games but after Sept 1 he had a .565 OPS in his last 21 games. Below 100 games we had #7 Montero in AZ, #8 Jenson in KC, #9 Goodman in DEN were all good through the entire year.  But I skipped a lot of catchers who didn't hit much at all and half the ones who were OK were in tatters by the time summer vacation ended.

The notion of "full-time catchers" starting 140 games and hitting like Ivan Rodriquez are gone.  Realmuto (by a wide margin) has been the only guy in recent memory to regularly start 130 games, and he got paid for it handsomely because it is so rare.  Cal Raleigh catches a lot, but completely broke down this year after his huge 2025.  Others come and go, but generally since Yadi Molina ten years ago few players reach 120 starts with any frequency. (Sal Perez in KC only started 100 games six times in 15 years, for example.)

Full time is 90-120 games in modern baseball, and you need at least three catchers to get through a season.  That is exactly why you don't see much top money going to the position, because like relievers you need a bunch of them and can only afford one closer in your catching bullpen. 

Lot of names, none are a free agent signing..

The discussion becomes preposterous when somebody brought up the Contreras signing. Ryan’s career pre free agency does not even begin to compare to Contreras’ lead up to free agency.  Even then  6/95 should signal Jefferson is not going to get that kind of contract.  So that leaves Vasquez 3/30 and McCann 4/40 as long term contracts given out since 2020. Teams are not signing catchers long term 

[Riverbrian]

I've said this a lot but I'll say it again. Jeffers is fantastic. I have nothing but praise for him. I hope he gets all the money he has coming to him. 

Bottom Line For Me: I want to beat the catcher market not lose to it.

I want to take advantage of the catcher market rather than have the catching market take advantage of you.

I'd rather the Twins treated the catching position as an asset-factory rather than long term foundational pieces.

Rather than over paying for catching - I'd rather the other teams over pay you for catching.

Ashbury calls it a stupidity tax. He is right... it's a stupidity tax that we pay time and time again because we have failed to develop catching. Jeffers the lone exception. 

Hopefully we can get on the correct side of the market with the players coming up through the system. 

[Cris E]

32 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The discussion becomes preposterous when somebody brought up the Contreras signing. Ryan’s career pre free agency does not even begin to compare to Contreras’ lead up to free agency.  Even then  6/95 should signal Jefferson is not going to get that kind of contract.  So that leaves Vasquez 3/30 and McCann 4/40 as long term contracts given out since 2020. Teams are not signing catchers long term 

What? I assume the 6/95 is a typo, but there have been many catcher contracts for more then $40m handed out in the recent past. In fact Sean Murphy signed a six year $73m extension in 2022, JT Realmuto signed his 3/$45m deal last year at the age of 34,  Kirk from TOR got his 5 year $58m extension in March 2025, Will Smith did a ten year $140m before the 2024 season, and so on. Lots of rich contracts. 

If you want to confine yourself to free agents only that's your choice, but the market is set by what others are getting paid and who is available, and Jeffers has got scarcity and a lot of other contracts going for him, establishing a rough valuation around $12-15m.