How Much Would the Twins Have to Spend to Prove They're Serious About 2027?

[Parfigliano]

Depends on what the new CBA says regarding salary cap-floor.  If there is a floor that number will be what TC spends.

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

I would absolutely back up the Brinks truck if there was a power hitting first baseman but alas France doesn’t do it for me. 

Should have done it last year when Pete Alonso was a FA. But the Pohlads were too busy trying to kick Joe out of the picture.

[LastOnePicked]

If your organization isn't smart enough to recognize threats, costs, investments and opportunities, it doesn't matter if you spend $75M or $250M next year. The cart is the payroll, and the horse is the brain trust.

I think the Twins probably do have to make big splashes in free agency in order to try and win next year, but ultimately I don't think it will matter. Whatever happens, Pohlad needs to find a new executive team as soon as possible. Then hear their plan. Then set payroll.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

But it would be hard to argue that a middle-of-MLB market shouldn't be spending at least league average payroll.  

A losing team with almost no elite talent needs at least a league-average payroll, yes.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Payroll should be based on attendance since Twins attendance is the lowest in 20 years you have your answer. Fans get the team they deserve. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Mr. Pohlad, there's no need to use a burner account here. We're all harmless. Just drop the fake name and join in on the discussion!

[mikelink45]

I don't care how much, I am concerned about the quality of the roster - FA, trade, prospects.  Get rid of the deadwood and move on. 

[TheLeviathan]

26 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Payroll should absolutely be a topic in 2027, but there are different ways of spending payroll than on big ticket FAs.  The Twins need to start acting more like successful middle revenue teams like the Brewers, Rays, Guards, etc and sign their future stars to extensions early.  Sure the FA class may be terrible, but if so it's a great opportunity to sign Jenkins and/or Culpepper, ERod, Priellip, Houston, Lackey to long term deals.  It's going to take some payroll to do that though.  

I agree in principle, but with the CBA looming and potential for young players to hit free agency much earlier....I'm not sure any team pulls that off in this calendar year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

33 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Should have done it last year when Pete Alonso was a FA. But the Pohlads were too busy trying to kick Joe out of the picture.

This. Absolutely this.

[nicksaviking]

The problem is the usual big spenders will over-pay and scoop up all the good free agents prior to the expiration of the CBA. If the Pohlad's will join that group and give Skubal 60M per year, great, go do that🙄.

But as many have mentioned, this class it flat out awful. There will be players getting 30M+ a year that I wouldn't even want on the roster (I'm looking at you Jazz Chisolm). And I don't think it's yet been mentioned, but Tom Pohlad almost certainly started talking about juicing the payroll because he already knows there is  going to be a salary floor of some kind and the Twins are going to be compelled to spend a boat load of money because they are laughably underfunded right now.

If proactive propaganda is the case, they probably will hem and haw in the early parts of free agency, claim they'll be ready to spend once the CBA is worked out, and then have to dole out their money to a half of dozen players who A) don't fit the roster, just like in 2026, and B) are less talented but will block the cheap controllable players who will be stuck in St. Paul.

BUT......If the Twins do plan on spending money, but are unsure of free agency until the CBA expires, that would leave them the option of resigning Jeffers and/or extending Joe Ryan prior to the open of free agency. Neither of which I would have been in favor a year ago, but I would now considering it would help prevent the team from having to spend on worse players I don't even want to see on the team.

[shimrod]

1 hour ago, PuckettPond said:

Payroll should be based on attendance since Twins attendance is the lowest in 20 years you have your answer. Fans get the team they deserve. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Not a direct analogy, but suppose you operate a restaurant. Expenses tick up and you decide to maintain your profits by using lower quality ingredients and serving smaller portions. Then you're surprised when fewer customers show up. 

Ownership needs to invest. I'm dubious the same people who created this situation are willing to spend enough to resolve it. Even though, with promising youngsters at multiple positions, just getting to league average payroll would be more than enough to right the ship. 

 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, killercarewoliva said:

I'm thinking how to say this. all the major sports are about spending money to put a winning team on the field of play. with baseball it used to be how well you can evaluate your draft picks and how well you can determine what you think. a player is going to be like next year by trading for him. no sport is harder to do with that than baseball. but now it's become more about how much personnel to put on the field you can buy instead of using your brain as a general manager to decide who to trade for who to pick in the draft. most of the time money will make a difference, but don't ask the New York Mets that. this all started with the New York Yankees. George steinbrunner was willing to put out whatever he had to to win baseball games. I don't think he even thought about with the farm system was like let's just buy a championship. personally, I don't think winning that way. is any fun at all but today if you depend on your draft picks and your trades with $100 million team salary to get over the hump, it's not going to happen. so you have to go out there and put out these millions and millions of dollars. we need a salary cap like the NFL has in every baseball. player wants to run to the hills and not play next year. if there's a salary cap well it's not going to put you in the $95,000 a year range for income. the salary cap is still going to pay you crazy money just like the NFL does but it might put a few more people in the stands cuz maybe the $300 single game seat could be $150. players don't think about your greed so much as the people that come to see you. you're still going to make tons of money. yes, I want to see the Minnesota twins win a championship since I've been filing them since 1965. it's been a long time. but my two vehicles used to have twins on their license plate here in Virginia. I have removed that I don't have any interest in wearing twins clothing to a ball game anymore because of the greed. seeing grown men dress up like they do at a football game. I think the players are laughing at them all the way to the bank. this isn't high school. please fans understand that that wear that stuff. okay, when I try to read replies they pop up there. if I read one reply any other replies or not located can't locate them. but thank you for your replies irregardless of whether you agree with me or not, but it was really nice paying $4.50 for a box seat at RFK stadium when I was 17. I don't know for sure but I think that amount of money today would probably be maybe $100? The rate of inflation does not apply to Major League sports and we need to boycott unfortunately but we're not going to do that

There's a lot I disagree with here, but I'll focus instead on the inflation since that's an interesting question. Seems based on the other information you  provided that $4.50 would be something like $50 today.

But more importantly, I want to point out that despite everyone loving to complain about rising ticket prices, MLB tickets are one of the entertainment products that have failed to explode in cost. Outpaced inflation, perhaps, but not by massive leaps and bounds.

Helps that the Mets are atrocious, but I think the average ticket price I paid in my trips to the ballpark the last couple season was something like $15-$20. Comparing that to concert tickets or a lot of other entertainment products, a trip to the ballpark is still a remarkably good deal! 

The concessions are another beast. 

[Exiled in Illinois]

Make a real effort to extend Ryan and Lopez.  Sign a quality starting catcher for 2-3 years, Jeffers would be ok with me.  Let the rookies play awhile next year, if any look like franchise players, extend them.  Then it's sign more pitching.  And then more pitching.  And then more pitching until you get to 170-180 million in payroll.  Do that and you should have a contender for years to come, and we'll have nothing to complain about.  But we'll complain anyway:)

[LastOnePicked]

21 minutes ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

Make a real effort to extend Ryan and Lopez. 

Please no. The future of this team is about getting younger and stronger, not older and less reliable.

[rv78]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Payroll should be based on attendance since Twins attendance is the lowest in 20 years you have your answer. Fans get the team they deserve. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Unfortunately you have it backwards. The reason the stands are empty is because of the poor product on the field. The Twins drew over 3 million when your namesake, Kirby Puckett was on the field and the team gave us something to cheer for. When there is little to no committment from the Owners and Front Office to win, the fans return the favor. 

[Brandon27]

We need new owners first 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Payroll should be based on attendance since Twins attendance is the lowest in 20 years you have your answer. Fans get the team they deserve. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Ah yes, the old Dave St Peter principle:  if your product sucks, blame the customer.  "If you want a better product you must buy a bunch of bad products first so we can afford to make better ones."  

 

[weitz41]

I think 2027 will be a short season and a transition for the Twins to a new "core". If it was up to me, I'm aiming for 2028. I'd extend Lopez for 2 more seasons upping his 2027 salary. Say..3/75. There is an enormous amount of starting pitching leaving the Twins after 2027 season. Pablo ext would help bridge that. Then I'd resign Jeffer to a 3-year deal. 3/50?  Jeffers is more about not believing Lackey will just storm through the minors. I want that to happen but he's a catcher, they historically take longer to get to the big leagues, Plus, Jeffers can DH the last season on that deal after Buxton calls it a career and Keaschall is an adequate outfielder?

The 2027 free agent class isn't well suited to the Twins needs IMO. Sign Suzuki, sure but we have to many OF/DH types already...Sign Guasman...Ober and Kremer look like they can give the Twins a 4ish era for 1/3 the price...I'd go BP and spend. Resign Minter 2/20 but 1st I'd go after Morejon. 4/80? He's my closer with Hoffman on his off days. I may even look into Abreau on a 2-year deal.

Then I trade. One of Ober/Kremer, Joe Ryan, Larnach, Martin, Roden, Royce? Gomez? Caratini? (if Jeffer resigns)

One last thing. Abel pitched what 30 innings in 2026? He's not going to be able to handle a starters load in 2027. Maybe not till 2028-2029. We have to stop thinking he's a 2027 starter for more than 1/2 the season, even if it's a short season.

[LastOnePicked]

8 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Unfortunately you have it backwards. The reason the stands are empty is because of the poor product on the field. The Twins drew over 3 million when your namesake, Kirby Puckett was on the field and the team gave us something to cheer for. When there is little to no committment from the Owners and Front Office to win, the fans return the favor. 

The funny thing is that I'd certainly support a losing team ... IF I could see that there was a clear plan. If Tom Pohlad had come out and said something as simple as, "Hey, this is really tough. We all know what Buck, Pablo, Joe and Ryan have meant to this team. We just had to come to the realization that we don't yet have the system that will get us to where we need to go. We have to take every possible opportunity to improve. If you can stick with us as we build a new championship core here, this organization would be grateful. If you can't, then we look forward to winning you back with a title run in the near future."

That simple. Good trades. Smart assessments of future core. A few years of rookies getting acclimated. I'd have been all over that.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Whatever the number is, it should include signing Jeffers to a 4yr/75M +/- contract. As well as signing Michael King or Sonny Gray to lead or rotation and David Bednar to be our Closer. And also find us a big bat to hit Cleanup and play 1B. 

Id imagine those 4 players will be in that 60-80M range. 

[rv78]

23 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

The funny thing is that I'd certainly support a losing team ... IF I could see that there was a clear plan. If Tom Pohlad had come out and said something as simple as, "Hey, this is really tough. We all know what Buck, Pablo, Joe and Ryan have meant to this team. We just had to come to the realization that we don't yet have the system that will get us to where we need to go. We have to take every possible opportunity to improve. If you can stick with us as we build a new championship core here, this organization would be grateful. If you can't, then we look forward to winning you back with a title run in the near future."

That simple. Good trades. Smart assessments of future core. A few years of rookies getting acclimated. I'd have been all over that.

So, in other words you want honesty, not Tom saying, "Go big or go home" and then giving us the half-hearted appproach to winning. The other side to that, which could very well be true, is why he won't tell you that simple thing such as, we are going to have a couple down years while we rebuild, and that is.......... Tom really doesn't know what it takes to win. 

[rv78]

The first order of business, if Tom is serious about winning, is to resign Jeffers to at least a 3 year contract. If he doesn't get that done, then he's not serious. In fact, it should have been done already, so there you go.

[LastOnePicked]

3 minutes ago, rv78 said:

So, in other words you want honesty,

Honesty does matter. I would have begrudgingly appreciated even a statement like this: "We probably should rebuild this whole team, but I am terrified of what that will do to our remaining season ticket holder base and I'd hate to see even more bad press about a Pohlad in the papers. So we're just going to run out what we've got. Maybe we'll get lucky, who knows? I don't really know anything about baseball yet. I guess we'll see what happens and go from there. What's the worst that can happen? Seriously, I don't know anything about this team - what is the worst that can happen?"

 

[LastOnePicked]

9 minutes ago, rv78 said:

The first order of business, if Tom is serious about winning, is to resign Jeffers to at least a 3 year contract. If he doesn't get that done, then he's not serious. In fact, it should have been done already, so there you go.

This is where a first-rate FO matters, because is Jeffers on a serious path to regression? Seems like the bottom is dropping out quickly, and I question the value of continuously signing aging, unproductive catchers to multi-year deals.

[MeleMouth]

Spending more can improve your ability to ante into a competition, but very few races are ever won simply by outspending your opponents.

This is not to excuse non-spending by the Pohlads, because their hesitance to spend has hamstrung the team many times, most recently a few years ago when they had a very good team but were unwilling to add anyone more expensive than Trevor Richards, but it is to say that spending more on player salary, even a lot more, will not improve the team nearly as much as many other things.

For example, if they had spent a lot more over the last few years, it would not have made any difference to the failings of so many players, such as Lewis, Wallner, Julien, Miranda, and numerous pitchers, such as SWR and Balazovic. 

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

One last thing. Abel pitched what 30 innings in 2026? He's not going to be able to handle a starters load in 2027. Maybe not till 2028-2029. We have to stop thinking he's a 2027 starter for more than 1/2 the season, even if it's a short season.

We don't even know yet if Abel is going to be a major league pitcher.  He had two good outings out of four this year and last year had a couple of good starts.  Yes he has the stuff but has had trouble throwing strikes.  Will he solve that and become a fixture in the rotation, that would be great but who knows when and if it will happen.

Many comments seem to suggest that he has a spot secured in the rotation next year, right now he is probably #6 or 7 depending on who is brought back.

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I think 2027 will be a short season and a transition for the Twins to a new "core". If it was up to me, I'm aiming for 2028. I'd extend Lopez for 2 more seasons upping his 2027 salary. Say..3/75. There is an enormous amount of starting pitching leaving the Twins after 2027 season. Pablo ext would help bridge that. Then I'd resign Jeffer to a 3-year deal. 3/50?  Jeffers is more about not believing Lackey will just storm through the minors. I want that to happen but he's a catcher, they historically take longer to get to the big leagues, Plus, Jeffers can DH the last season on that deal after Buxton calls it a career and Keaschall is an adequate outfielder?

The 2027 free agent class isn't well suited to the Twins needs IMO. Sign Suzuki, sure but we have to many OF/DH types already...Sign Guasman...Ober and Kremer look like they can give the Twins a 4ish era for 1/3 the price...I'd go BP and spend. Resign Minter 2/20 but 1st I'd go after Morejon. 4/80? He's my closer with Hoffman on his off days. I may even look into Abreau on a 2-year deal.

Then I trade. One of Ober/Kremer, Joe Ryan, Larnach, Martin, Roden, Royce? Gomez? Caratini? (if Jeffer resigns)

One last thing. Abel pitched what 30 innings in 2026? He's not going to be able to handle a starters load in 2027. Maybe not till 2028-2029. We have to stop thinking he's a 2027 starter for more than 1/2 the season, even if it's a short season.

It seems contradictory to say that because Abel pitched perhaps 30 innings in 2026 he won't be ready for a starter's load, but Lopez who didn't pitch at all should get an extension at a raise. Can you elaborate?

[bjorks]

The part we're forgetting has nothing to do with the talent pool and trickle down effect. The reason they've proposed a floor is the Steve Cohen's don't want to share the TV money and have a John Fisher just stick it in his pocket. If they have to share the TV money, it has to be spent on "on field product". 

It is absolutely laughable the gap in media deals in NY/LA/CHI vs KC/TB/MN/etc. The fact the rumored number is $171 shows the top teams are "OK" with subsidizing payroll for over half the league is astounding. The Sports Business Journal reported 2 years ago Ohtani/Yamamoto was worth over $1B to the economy just from Asian markets alone. Their point was Ohtani was actually underpaid. 

I also think there will be a phased in process. The 2027 FA crop can't be the only ones to benefit. I would think it makes some sort of sense 2027 = $130M; 2028 = $150M; 2029 = $171M. 

[Western SD Fan]

I have no clue how the CBA will turn out.  I can see a scenario where the floor, if agreed upon, is ramped up over 1-3 years.  That gives the owners who will need to spend some lead time and possibly be prepaid if the revenue sharing is distributed more evenly among all the teams.  Say 2027, a floor would be 140-150M, 2028 would be 160-175M, and then readjusted every year after that based on revenue like the other sports.

That would feed into the idea of needing to spend an additional 35-45M for next season.  I don't see them bringing back Minter or Larnach.  Ober may be retained just because you need the depth and if you don't sign a SP this offseason.  Ober has been fine as a 4 or 5 starter, dependable and keeps you in the game.  I would like them to give a real offer to Jeffers for 3-4 years, but I don't see it happening.  Even if Jeffers really begins to decline rapidly by year 2-4, he would still be better as a backup catcher than who we have had over the years. As many people have commented, I would like to see them work on giving extensions to players like Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Lopez OR Ryan, probably not both, and maybe Culpepper and Bradley if they both show continued progress from this season.  For 2027 and 2028, Buxton has a limited no-trade clause as it is limited to five teams, which is something to consider if you want to play for the future.  As for adding FA, I think a solid RP, a starter since you don't really plan on re-signing both Lopez and Ryan, an actual 2B who can sub at SS so Clemens can shift to a utility role that will better a platoon matchup or can PH.  I'll go against the grain and say they need to retain Lewis because, as many other have suggested on here, there really aren't any 1B on the FA market that they would want to spend money on.  

I'm not sure if that gets me to a 35-40M increase, but it's a wish list.  Could even help facilitate a sale since a new owner would know what kind of a team they would have the next few years.  

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Not enough talent in the 2027 free agent pool to go too nuts. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/available/_/year/2027

Only 2 real impact players, Skubal and the reliever out of San Diego. The only hope to get a Skubal is if he hates the LA lifestyle. 

[thelanges5]

20 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Only 2 real impact players, Skubal and the reliever out of San Diego. The only hope to get a Skubal is if he hates the LA lifestyle. 

The other trick would be getting a top free agent to come to TC.