How Much Would the Twins Have to Spend to Prove They're Serious About 2027?

[D.C Twins]

Tommy P.... long on platitudes and short on details. 

[TopGunn#22]

Lets keep in mind that for all the credit we give Jeffers for being an offensive juggernaut as a catcher, he's a .243/.328/.430 lifetime hitter with a .755 OPS.  He's NOT Raleigh, Langeliers, Goodman, William Contreras, Will Smith, Drake Baldwin, Dillon Dingler or Liam Hicks.  He may not even be Adley Rutschman.

William Contreras is listed as one of the FA available in the Spotrack link.  I wouldn't waste my time with Jeffers if I could sign Contreras, especially if the money would be relatively the same.  But everyone on TD knows the money for Contreras and Jeffers would NOT be the same because Contreras is a far superior hitter and catcher.  Contreras would be the bridge to Vahn Lackey and could probably play 1B/DH and occasionally catch once Lackey takes over.  Signing Contreras would also allow the Twins to trade some of their minor league catching surplus. 

One guy NOT listed by Spotrack (I was only able to read one page) is 1B/OF Jake Bauers, also of the Brewers.  He would make a fine 1B on a 3-year contract.  Both Contreras and Bauers are players I would expect the Brewers would want to retain, so you would have to out-bid the Brew-Crew for them.

There are a number of interesting 2B available:  Brandon Lowe, Jazz...but with Marek Houston sure to be up in 2027 and Culpepper moving to 2B once that happens, I would resist adding a 2B, especially with Clemens able to fill that spot to open 2027.  There are a handful of pitchers in their 30's who would be interesting additions if Joe Ryan was moved:  Nick Martinez-34, Nick Pivetta-36, David Peterson-31, Sandy Alcantara-31. I'd be interested in this type of pitcher to pair with Lopez to lead and mentor a young staff of Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews and Rojas.  

I am ready to move on from:  Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Josh Bell, Matt Wallner and Dean Kremer.  That's 9 guys.  All 9 will not be moved this winter, but all 9 should be moved by the trade deadline.  I'd keep Pablo to begin the season and then see how the campaign is going and determine how much of his value has been rebuilt.  

If we moved on from Buxton and Joe Ryan as the major trades, but others like Bell, Lewis, Larnach and Ober, it's hard to speculate what talent we would have brought back with those trades.  But it would open up the DH spot for someone like Yandy Diaz or Seiya Suzuki (who are both FA).  

Off season priorities:

Catcher-William Contreras.  1B-Jake Bauers.  A veteran SP-Nick Martinez or Sandy Alcantara.  A solid Closer-Ryan Helsley.  Add to this the influx of talent that we get from the trades and progression by a young core of Jenkins, Culpepper, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, E-Rod, and the young pitchers and while 2027 could be cloudy with the expected labor strife, you've got the makings of a team that can meet and exceed the low bar of contention in the A.L. Central.  

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Why would we give up assets for a backup that you don't want to play much.

You are worrying about the wrong thing. 

We should be worrying about the guys that we want to play much... not playing much or not wanting them to play much.  

If they call up Houston because he is next man up and he is probably the next man up... And they don't play him. It will remove all doubt on why they have a decade long development problem.  

I'm not sure your point? Houston is next man up. He'll be the starting short stop by July. Why would I trade for a short stop given that's my plan? Which it should be. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure your point? Houston is next man up. He'll be the starting short stop by July. Why would I trade for a short stop given that's my plan? Which it should be. 

Besides the obvious that Houston may be hurt in July... and the obvious that he doesn't adjust well to AAA.  

The answer is this: We currently have Lee, Culpepper, Clemens and Lewis. That's it. Besides the AA guy that you are sure will be replacing one of those 4.  

 

[Woof Bronzer]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure your point? Houston is next man up. He'll be the starting short stop by July. Why would I trade for a short stop given that's my plan? Which it should be. 

This is the same reason I do not understand resigning Jeffers (if they could, which seems doubtful).  Great, you've signed a long term deal for a guy who plays almost exactly as much as Buxton, who's maybe a top 10 catcher at best, defensively mediocre, about to hit 30 in the most physically demanding position in the game...congrats, you've effectively blocked our best catching prospect since Mauer (and a couple other promising catching prospects as well).  And for the privilege of blocking Lackey you'll pay a premium of tens of millions of dollars per year.

For a middle revenue team this is an absolutely terrible idea.   

The Twins have to stop prioritizing expensive vets over cheaper, higher-ceiling talent.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, killercarewoliva said:

Harper makes $30 million a year for 10 years. how many tickets do you have to sell to give this guy his $30 million?

Zero. The Phillies can cover $200M of their payroll with TV money.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure your point? Houston is next man up. He'll be the starting short stop by July. 

You have too much confidence in Houston. If he’s that good, they can make a trade to open a spot later. That’s no reason to make him plan A, B and C.

[NYCTK]

41 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

The local Richmond news probably 30 years ago talked about going to Baltimore and a family of four. would have to spend $200 to see a baseball game that that was excruciatingly high price. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a game. it's not a doctor giving you a transplanted heart. how much money should the doctors have made when rod Carew got a new heart and a new kidney all in one operation? what is that worth? He's not going to get probably $350,000 for that day's work is he? let's take how people dress up at the football games. yes, I'm a Vikings fan also since 1968. players see all this nonsense grown men or out on the field wearing like Oakland raiders fans grown men looking stupid. why? because the players are laughing at them all the way to the bank, it's not high school. it's professional. they play for who gives them the most money. they don't care about Oakland when they play there. we need to wise up and boycott all Major league sports to make it feasible. nearby is the lowest level of Madeline ice hockey tickets. average $100 a game. it's pretty close to that with AA baseball used to sit behind home plate in Richmond when the Minnesota twins AAA team came to town $11 behind home plate. that's $100 now. it's minorly sports. what is it? you don't understand. it's breaking my heart. you're willing to give up all this money.

You can stay mad, whatever, but those prices aren't falling, and they're high not because of the "greed" of the players but the greed of the uber wealthy billionaires that ruin everything in this world. 

Would you rather that money go to the players that we pay to watch, or the billionaire owners that do literally nothing? 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You have too much confidence in Houston. If he’s that good, they can make a trade to open a spot later. That’s no reason to make him plan A, B and C.

Too many fans count on prospects to develop linearly, both here and IRL, and not exclusive to the Twins of course. 

There's a decent chance neither Houston nor Lackey become reliable every day starters in the major leagues! I like them, but planning AROUND prospects is a good way to make sure your team continues to suck. 

[Whammy]

I’m guessing it’s been touched on in the first 100 or so replies but in my opinion there are two clear and good ways to spend this offseason 

1) QO for Jeffers. He probably won’t take it, but still try to sign him. Let’s say 3/57M

2) Extensions for young players. This doesn’t necessarily help us in 2027, but will likely make years 4-6 of the new core have better financial flexibility. Young guys making the minimum for a couple more years not only would love the idea of some guaranteed money (like extensions typically provide), but if you couple that with, say, a $5M signing bonus, right before a potential lockout, I think you’d get a ton of interest. 

The best way any team can take advantage of a good young core is by paying them a bit more now, so that you aren’t paying them nearly as much later. 

Does this new core guarantee anything? No. Will they all be worth the extensions we give them? Probably not. But a) even if an extension or two doesn’t work out, as a whole they probably will and b) if this core flames out we’re screwed anyway. 

This is how multi-year contenders are built as a mid-market club.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

24 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Besides the obvious that Houston may be hurt in July... and the obvious that he doesn't adjust well to AAA.  

The answer is this: We currently have Lee, Culpepper, Clemens and Lewis. That's it. Besides the AA guy that you are sure will be replacing one of those 4.  

 

Ben Ross and/or Ryan Kreidler could be brought back for cheap (Arb 1) and be the 13th man off the bench to fill in short term, and Kreidler would be easy to DFA if he is no longer needed. And neither of these guys should be playing much if everybody is healthy. Either one could be made a spot start at 3B, SS, 2B. There is no reason for a team in the Twins position to spend money for a back up infielder, that is what low cost older/cheaper players are for. 

And if the Twins around the deadline are looking like a legit playoff contender and those guys haven't been great, then go out and get a vet FA to be at the deadline. 

The Twins should only be spending money on guys that are an upgrade over the current starters and don't block your more promising prospects or to replace soon to be free agents, For example if they sign or trade for an outfielder they better being moving one of the prospects to 1B, if they trade Lopez and/or Ryan, get the prospects and sign a pitcher to replace them. And don't keep Ober and/or Kremer and start them and push Prielipp and/Matthews to the pen, do it the other way around, and the young guys aren't holding their own, switch them around. 

Build a good roster and supplement with Salary, not the other way around. 

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You have too much confidence in Houston. If he’s that good, they can make a trade to open a spot later. That’s no reason to make him plan A, B and C.

Fear is no way to run a team. You want to give up other assets to get a shortstop, when you have a top fifty prospect in AA? That's one way to guarantee you don't have prospect depth. 

I guess we'll just disagree and move on. Both sides have made their point. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, killercarewoliva said:

The local Richmond news probably 30 years ago talked about going to Baltimore and a family of four. would have to spend $200 to see a baseball game that that was excruciatingly high price. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a game. it's not a doctor giving you a transplanted heart. how much money should the doctors have made when rod Carew got a new heart and a new kidney all in one operation? what is that worth? He's not going to get probably $350,000 for that day's work is he? let's take how people dress up at the football games. yes, I'm a Vikings fan also since 1968. players see all this nonsense grown men or out on the field wearing like Oakland raiders fans grown men looking stupid. why? because the players are laughing at them all the way to the bank, it's not high school. it's professional. they play for who gives them the most money. they don't care about Oakland when they play there. we need to wise up and boycott all Major league sports to make it feasible. nearby is the lowest level of Madeline ice hockey tickets. average $100 a game. it's pretty close to that with AA baseball used to sit behind home plate in Richmond when the Minnesota twins AAA team came to town $11 behind home plate. that's $100 now. it's minorly sports. what is it? you don't understand. it's breaking my heart. you're willing to give up all this money.

 

While we're living in fantasy land here, I would like gas to go back to less than $1 per gallon. I'd love for starter homes to be at a starter home price. I'd love for my insurance not to increase 20-30% every year when I've submitted zero claims. 

Baseball continues to be the cheapest professional sport to attend for families. I've attended a couple of games at Target Field this year for less than $20 a ticket. You can't get into a Wolves game for less than $60, or a Wild game for less than $80. There's a reason I've never been to the new Vikings stadium, because those tickets are multiple hundreds of dollars.

[Whammy]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fear is no way to run a team. You want to give up other assets to get a shortstop, when you have a top fifty prospect in AA? That's one way to guarantee you don't have prospect depth. 

I guess we'll just disagree and move on. Both sides have made their point. 

Obviously Houston isn’t in anyone’s top 50 at the moment, but I agree with you that he will be.

Really I’m just grinning thinking about the offseason lists that will have some (if not all) of Jenkins, Emma, KC, Lackey, and Houston in their top 50s. 

Then some Riley Quick mixed into some top 100s

🤩
 

[spanman2]

It is possible the new CBA may have a lot of influence on the amount they do or do not commit to.  I would hope it is around 175 after a couple of years on the cheap. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Whammy said:

Obviously Houston isn’t in anyone’s top 50 at the moment, but I agree with you that he will be.

Really I’m just grinning thinking about the offseason lists that will have some (if not all) of Jenkins, Emma, KC, Lackey, and Houston in their top 50s. 

Then some Riley Quick mixed into some top 100s

🤩
 

I'd say it's a lock Jenkins, Lackey and Houston are top fifty on multiple lists. 

Quick and one other will be top 100 on several, and one or two others will be on one list. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fear is no way to run a team. You want to give up other assets to get a shortstop, when you have a top fifty prospect in AA? That's one way to guarantee you don't have prospect depth. 

I guess we'll just disagree and move on. Both sides have made their point. 

I want them to spend some of the pile of money they have on a second baseman. If they somehow end up with too many good, healthy infielders (they won’t) they can trade one of the older players for more prospect depth. Gray, Arcia and Kreidler got 500 combined PA this season despite the planned debut of Kaelen Culpepper.

[Woof Bronzer]

32 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Too many fans count on prospects to develop linearly, both here and IRL, and not exclusive to the Twins of course. 

There's a decent chance neither Houston nor Lackey become reliable every day starters in the major leagues! I like them, but planning AROUND prospects is a good way to make sure your team continues to suck. 

But isn't being afraid of playing prospects, and instead filling out the roster with 34 year old DHs 6 years past their prime on 1 year deals, also a good way ensure mediocrity?  I'm  thinking about teams like, I dunno, the 2024-2026 Minnesota Twins.  

Not all prospects are going to work out and even for those who do, it's not always going to be pretty.  That's why 26 and 27 should have been bottom-out development years, with a goal of seriously competing in 28 and 29.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd say it's a lock Jenkins, Lackey and Houston are top fifty on multiple lists. 

Quick and one other will be top 100 on several, and one or two others will be on one list. 

Houston is 57 on fangraphs, before taking out graduates, and his second half.... 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I want them to spend some of the pile of money they have on a second baseman. If they somehow end up with too many good, healthy infielders (they won’t) they can trade one of the older players for more prospect depth. Gray, Arcia and Kreidler got 500 combined PA this season despite the planned debut of Kaelen Culpepper.

There is one good second baseman in free agency, and he's been traded three straight years, and is a one trick pony. 

I'm not sure who is trading a very good established player with years of control? And the cost to acquire said player would be three legit prospects.