1B for next season

[Cory Engelhardt]

Curious your thoughts on this poll I created. Thanks!

[howeda7]

Royce. You can't trade him now at near his lowest value and you can't move him back to 3B anymore. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

7 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Royce. You can't trade him now at near his lowest value and you can't move him back to 3B anymore. 

Well, his value might be slightly higher after a fairly productive second half, but it appears like he is slipping again this month. Not sure what sort of value he has at this point, nor am I sure how much value he has for the Twins going forward. I think we could be doing the free agent tango for a first baseman again next season, if there is one. 

[Vanimal46]

18 games left to gather as much data as we can. I have flip flopped on Lewis all season long. My gut feel today is he will be traded in the offseason, and the Twins go back to the mystery box. I'm curious if there's a Royce Lewis for another MLB player trade possibility. A challenge trade for someone like Spencer Torkelson. 

[Mike Sixel]

Keaschell is my vote. 

[nicksaviking]

Keaschell, then Lewis.

But IF the Twins make unexpected big moves this winter to the point were outsiders are even saying they are a legit team, then I might go Lewis. 

If you chart Lewis' highs and lows, it's pretty much an exact match to when the team has highs and lows. Do you really want a guy who only plays well when the team plays well, and goes in the tank as soon as the team hits a cold spell? Not ideally, but if the team is projected to be good next year, then you probably wouldn't say no to a player who peaks when the team his amped up on playoff hype and energy.

On a related note, if Lewis is traded, best to do it to the Rockies, Angels or Royals and not the Dodgers, Rays or Brewers. 

[Parfigliano]

Keaschall a 1B mitt and how ever long the coming offseason is to practice practice practice.

[Parfigliano]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Keaschell, then Lewis.

But IF the Twins make unexpected big moves this winter to the point were outsiders are even saying they are a legit team, then I might go Lewis. 

If you chart Lewis' highs and lows, it's pretty much an exact match to when the team has highs and lows. Do you really want a guy who only plays well when the team plays well, and goes in the tank as soon as the team hits a cold spell? Not ideally, but if the team is projected to be good next year, then you probably wouldn't say no to a player who peaks when the team his amped up on playoff hype and energy.

On a related note, if Lewis is traded, best to do it to the Rockies, Angels or Royals and not the Dodgers, Rays or Brewers. 

With the Rockies Lewis probably has several monster years at the plate.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

With the Rockies Lewis probably has several monster years at the plate.

Maybe Coors helps, but so far in his career, he only plays well when the clubhouse thinks they are headed for the post season.

[bean5302]

I don't think Lewis has shown enough at the plate to be a first baseman and I don't think using him there makes best use of his skills. That said, I would prefer Lewis over having a dumpster dive 0-1 WAR free agent there when that seemed to be Falvinezoll's objective every year.

Can't fathom why anybody would think putting Keaschall at 1B is a good idea when he can't catch baseballs. 1B isn't considered a position with a lot of variance in defensive value because everybody who makes it to MLB can catch baseballs (except Luke Keaschall).

[Linus]

I would like to upgrade over Royce. The final numbers are almost in and he is a below average hitter playing an offense first position. We are in danger of the Larnach Syndrome where we wait around for multiple years of mediocre production waiting for the elusive breakout season. One caveat: I don’t want a one year solution. I want a bona fide bat for multiple years either through free agency or trade. If that is not possible then I would rather roll with Royce and hope for the best. 

[Major League Ready]

I like the idea of Keashall at 1B but I have never seen him play there.  1B is a good place to hide his throwing deficiency.  Bring up Rodriguez to play RF and start the season with three OFers (Buxton / Walker) capable of playing CF.  Non-tender Larnach.  Martin and Clemens are you 4th and 5th OFers with Cody playing a super utility role.  They also have Roden and Gonzalez for OF depth.  

Time to quit running the same players out there and expecting a different result.

[Rigby]

Mickey may have to designate Keaschall his heir....

[jaimedude]

Leave Keaschall in the outfield. You cannot keep moving the guy around the field and expect him to be a starter if your always changing his position. I like him in the leadoff spot. I think he fits best in outfield. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Royce has 400 pas of magic and then 1000 pas below average. Fangraphs projected him to be 105 wRC+ and he likely won’t reach that lofty height. Time to move on.

Keaschall hits, but that’s as far as his skills go, if he can’t field 1b, he should DH.

I’d look to free agency for 1b/DH, plan on Keaschall being 1b, but if he can’t scoop the low throws, swap him with the FA.

[Whammy]

I'd be OK with Royce back at first base, but only if we spend big money on other needs and are like "for $5M we could do worse than Royce. Let's run it back"

I'd also be OK with Mystery Box. 1B seems like the best opportunity to spend big and have a great impact (I haven't looked at the free agents, but I'll assume there are some). 

The other two options aren't very appealing to me. 

[HarmonK03]

I know this is about Lewis but I think that is a narrow view.  This team has basically been a sub .500 team for the last 3 years.  The whole roster, approach at the plate and style i.e. athletic or not needs to be reviewed.  Then you look at the roster and say who fits this profile and who doesn't.  Who can help be a part of a winning team in a defined role.  Move on from those who don't fit.  But either go young or bring in proven starters to replace them.  The one year stopgaps and relying on AAAA type players needs to go away.  They need to upgrade the talent and develop a stronger bench.

It all comes down to wins, if a player is not going to help us in being a winning team find ones who will.  Which is why I really hope Zoll is gone in the next two weeks, I don't think he is capable of this evaluation.

If you were going to ask me about Lewis only, I would say if we go young, keep him for another year.  If you think he is maxed out where he will be, then move on.  But don't bring in a one year stop gap or move Clemens or Keaschall, that is not helping us move forward either.

[Cory Engelhardt]

48 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I know this is about Lewis but I think that is a narrow view.  This team has basically been a sub .500 team for the last 3 years.  The whole roster, approach at the plate and style i.e. athletic or not needs to be reviewed.  Then you look at the roster and say who fits this profile and who doesn't.  Who can help be a part of a winning team in a defined role.  Move on from those who don't fit.  But either go young or bring in proven starters to replace them.  The one year stopgaps and relying on AAAA type players needs to go away.  They need to upgrade the talent and develop a stronger bench.

It all comes down to wins, if a player is not going to help us in being a winning team find ones who will.  Which is why I really hope Zoll is gone in the next two weeks, I don't think he is capable of this evaluation.

If you were going to ask me about Lewis only, I would say if we go young, keep him for another year.  If you think he is maxed out where he will be, then move on.  But don't bring in a one year stop gap or move Clemens or Keaschall, that is not helping us move forward either.

I agree with this. And in many ways I have a list in my head of players who for sure will be here next season and then others that are still muddy. But if there is new ownership, or a new gm, then a lot of that could change.

I mostly wanted to start the poll for 1b because I feel like, IF Tom is the owner, he has said they want to raise the payroll. 1b or OF, to me, are the 2 spots where it would be easiest to raise the payroll on the position player side via free agency. Basically, I don’t know how they raise the overall payroll if they don’t bring in at least a couple of legit offensive players, regardless of what they add on the pitching side. 

[MGX]

Over the last two seasons Royce has nearly 850 PA's of below average offensive production. If you couple that with below average D at 1B & Id' say he's had his chance at being a starter. 

On the other hand a player who isn't mentioned in the poll, Kody Clemens in 893 PA's with the Twins over the last two season has produced a .746 OPS (105 OPS+) with 86 extra base hits & has proven to be a better defensive player as well.

My vote is for Clemens & use any Free Agent money available to sign Jeffers & go after whatever quality pitching they can get.

To this point in the season the Twins are still 8th in MLB in runs scored, the issue is we're 27th in runs allowed. 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, MGX said:

Over the last two seasons Royce has nearly 850 PA's of below average offensive production. If you couple that with below average D at 1B & Id' say he's had his chance at being a starter. 

On the other hand a player who isn't mentioned in the poll, Kody Clemens in 893 PA's with the Twins over the last two season has produced a .746 OPS (105 OPS+) with 86 extra base hits & has proven to be a better defensive player as well.

My vote is for Clemens & use any Free Agent money available to sign Jeffers & go after whatever quality pitching they can get.

To this point in the season the Twins are still 8th in MLB in runs scored, the issue is we're 27th ine runs allowed. 

 

 

You aren't wrong. I didn't add Clemens to the poll here. He has shown to be a better and more consistent hitter the last few years than Lewis has. He's also shown to be pretty good defensively at 1B.

I don't know if Clemens is a strong enough hitter to be a 1b on a contending team. But that's more a fault of the rest of the team and not him.

I probably should have added him as an option. I guess I just see him more as a super utility guy next year instead of a starter at one set position. But if he has to start somewhere, that probably isn't a bad thing.

[Whammy]

I view Royce as a better defensive option at 1B than Clemens. I don't care what the small sample of numbers might say for the time Royce was learning to play the new position. My eyes tell me he's a better long-term defensive 1B. 

But I don't really want either of them playing 1B regularly in 2027 because I don't find either of their offensive profiles palatable for a 1B. We just need more from that position offensively than we've gotten for several years. If we do make big boosts to the offense in other places, then I can live with Royce at 1B because, like I said, I kind of like him there defensively and he still has a tiny bit of offensive upside in my mind. 

[MMBoys93]

Even if I’m the GM, number 2 isn’t possible because the money won’t be there.

option 4: The worst defensive corner OFs still in the org at AAA/MLB level battle Royce to see who can hold down first base the best. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

Even if I’m the GM, number 2 isn’t possible because the money won’t be there.

option 4: The worst defensive corner OFs still in the org at AAA/MLB level battle Royce to see who can hold down first base the best. 

If Larnach and Jeffers and Ober all leave, and they keep literally everyone else, their payroll will be lower next year with the arbitration raises players are going to.

Tom has promised the payroll will be higher.

How does a payroll go higher if they don't have money to spend on players?

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

option 4: The worst defensive corner OFs still in the org at AAA/MLB level 

That’s Luke Keaschall

[HarmonK03]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If Larnach and Jeffers and Ober all leave, and they keep literally everyone else, their payroll will be lower next year with the arbitration raises players are going to.

Tom has promised the payroll will be higher.

How does a payroll go higher if they don't have money to spend on players?

This is where Tom P. did back himself into a corner.  Yes it's great he wants to spend money, but you need to spend it wisely and he does not have the leadership in place to do that.  And you probably need two bats and one top line pitcher if you are truly going to contend tomorrow.  That could easily be another $45m to $60m, depending on the CBA will he go that high.  Just signing one player to a huge contract isn't going to move the needle.

[HarmonK03]

3 hours ago, MGX said:

Over the last two seasons Royce has nearly 850 PA's of below average offensive production. If you couple that with below average D at 1B & Id' say he's had his chance at being a starter. 

On the other hand a player who isn't mentioned in the poll, Kody Clemens in 893 PA's with the Twins over the last two season has produced a .746 OPS (105 OPS+) with 86 extra base hits & has proven to be a better defensive player as well.

My vote is for Clemens & use any Free Agent money available to sign Jeffers & go after whatever quality pitching they can get.

To this point in the season the Twins are still 8th in MLB in runs scored, the issue is we're 27th in runs allowed. 

 

 

Clemens is not an upgrade especially defensively over Lewis.  If you are going to move on, it needs to be for a true upgrade which also then would hopefully move Clemens to an utility role where he should be.

[thelanges5]

I voted for Lewis at 1B

Id give Jeffers the QO 

Keachsall in left

Spend $$ on pitching

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

This is where Tom P. did back himself into a corner.  Yes it's great he wants to spend money, but you need to spend it wisely and he does not have the leadership in place to do that.  And you probably need two bats and one top line pitcher if you are truly going to contend tomorrow.  That could easily be another $45m to $60m, depending on the CBA will he go that high.  Just signing one player to a huge contract isn't going to move the needle.

I agree here too. And frankly, they could trade prospects for higher priced average veterans to simply also get a higher payroll. Some of their prospects SHOULD be able to produce well next year, but I am having a hard time figuring HOW they raise their payroll IF Jeffers isn't brought back on the qualifying offer. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I voted for Lewis at 1B

Id give Jeffers the QO 

Keachsall in left

Spend $$ on pitching

I like all of this. I have a couple of questions to follow up;

1) Why Keaschall in left and not right? Just curious.

2) I have Pablo, Ryan and Bradley for sure in the rotation to start the year. I also have one of Kremer or Ober (not both) and probably Prielipp. Then behind them, you have Abel (who, if he is healthy in spring I put ahead of either Kremer or Ober) and then you have Zebby either as the 7th/8th starter or moved to the bullpen. My question is, do you keep all of those guys AND sign another starter? Or do you move some of these guys either in trade or to the bullpen and THEN sign a starter?

3) For the bullpen, all of that is easier to find room. For next year, they should have Hoffman and Gomez back, and then depending on if Anthony Banda is healthy he should be there too. I'd imagine they also would pencil in Andrew Morris again, but that leaves at least a few spots.

4) Basically, my question is, when you say to spend money on pitching, what would that look like for you? 1 starter and 2 relievers? 2 relievers? 3 relievers? How would you draw out your rotation and bullpen if it was up to you?

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like all of this. I have a couple of questions to follow up;

1) Why Keaschall in left and not right? Just curious.

2) I have Pablo, Ryan and Bradley for sure in the rotation to start the year. I also have one of Kremer or Ober (not both) and probably Prielipp. Then behind them, you have Abel (who, if he is healthy in spring I put ahead of either Kremer or Ober) and then you have Zebby either as the 7th/8th starter or moved to the bullpen. My question is, do you keep all of those guys AND sign another starter? Or do you move some of these guys either in trade or to the bullpen and THEN sign a starter?

3) For the bullpen, all of that is easier to find room. For next year, they should have Hoffman and Gomez back, and then depending on if Anthony Banda is healthy he should be there too. I'd imagine they also would pencil in Andrew Morris again, but that leaves at least a few spots.

4) Basically, my question is, when you say to spend money on pitching, what would that look like for you? 1 starter and 2 relievers? 2 relievers? 3 relievers? How would you draw out your rotation and bullpen if it was up to you?

Oh boy you’re going to expose my logic. Here goes nothing. 
 

Outfield - this may depend on Buxton. But I like Jenkins in right Buxton in center Keaschall in left. I think his arm is better over there. Throw in Emma as the 4th. If Buxton is still recovering then you could have Jenkins in center Emma in right and have Martin as the 4th OF  

$$$ to spend - Banda comes back, Nance comes back, maybe Minter too. I’m looking for a top end guy  (have to look a little deeper at the FA list) and trying to extend Pablo. I’m not sold on Ober or Kremer, but the front office traded for him partially due to his extra year of team control.