The Twins’ Homegrown Starting Pitching Has Been Few and Far Between

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of David Frerker-Imagn Images

There are certain things, or positions, rather, that organizations can never have enough of. Starting pitching is one of those things, and the Twins have experienced firsthand this year just how important pitching depth can be. 

With injuries to guys like Pablo López, Mick Abel and, more recently, Joe Ryan, Minnesota’s starting rotation has been tested in ways that probably weren’t expected coming into the season. But seeing so much of the organization’s pitching depth has made me wonder something: Do the Twins have an organizational problem when it comes to developing homegrown starting pitchers?

Obviously, there’s one clear outlier in that conversation. Ryan has spent most of his professional career in Minnesota, and the Twins have turned him into one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. He was acquired from Tampa Bay as part of the Nelson Cruz trade in 2021, developed into a legitimate major league starter and eventually became the kind of pitcher the Twins could confidently build a rotation around. But aside from Ryan — who himself was brought in from another organization — when was the last time the Twins turned a homegrown arm into a legitimate, quality starting pitcher?

That’s where things get a little murky. I don’t think you can call anybody else currently in the organization a true quality starter. Guys like Zebby Matthews and Bailey Ober have each had flashes of becoming that kind of pitcher, and both were drafted and developed by the Twins. But ultimately, Ober has kind of stabilized as a back-end starter, and on a better team, you could even make the argument that his best role might be in the bullpen. Matthews, meanwhile, is starting to look like a pitcher whose future could eventually take him in that direction as well.

Both guys have an ERA north of 4.60 this season, and given their respective track records, I’m not sure you can truly classify either one as a quality major league starter right now. That’s not to say either pitcher is a failure; far from it. The Twins have gotten major-league innings out of both, and Ober in particular has been a valuable part of the rotation for several years now. But there’s a difference between developing a serviceable starting pitcher and developing a legitimate impact arm. And that’s the part the Twins have struggled with.

Connor Prielipp could eventually change that conversation. The 25-year-old left-hander has the kind of arsenal that makes you believe there’s something much bigger in there. A mid-to-upper 90s fastball paired with two filthy breaking balls is the profile of someone who could eventually develop into an ace, or at the very least a really good No. 2 or No. 3 starter. The problem is that we just haven’t seen enough consistency yet. Prielipp is still in his rookie season, and there’s obviously plenty of time for him to figure things out. But the fact that he represents one of the clearest candidates in the organization to become a legitimate frontline starter also says something about where the Twins are currently at from a pitching-development standpoint.

Even when you look at the kind of pitchers Minnesota has drafted in recent years, there’s a lot of straightening out to do. Dasan Hill was moved at the trade deadline as part of the return for Jeff Hoffman. Riley Quick owns a 15.4% walk rate at Double-A, and Charlee Soto has struggled to stay on the field. It’s way too early to say what any of those guys ultimately will be, but that’s kind of the point. The Twins haven’t really had that future ace, top-100 type of pitching prospect emerge from their system in a long time. And I think a big part of that is because they haven’t been able to develop starting pitchers particularly well.

Now, I didn’t mention Taj Bradley, Abel or Kendry Rojas. And that’s because all three did a significant amount of their development with their former organizations. Bradley threw 354 innings with Tampa Bay before coming to Minnesota. Abel made his MLB debut with Philadelphia last year, and Rojas only threw five innings beyond Double-A with Toronto before joining the Twins. You could certainly argue that Abel and Rojas (especially) are partially the products of Minnesota’s development system, especially considering how much of their recent development has happened with the Twins. But even still, they aren’t your traditional homegrown players, and in Rojas’ case, his current trajectory looks more like that of a potential relief pitcher than a future rotation anchor.

That’s not necessarily an indictment of the Twins’ development system by itself. Teams acquire players from other organizations all the time, and the ability to take someone else’s prospect and maximize his talent is an important part of player development. But the Twins have also spent a significant amount of draft capital on pitching. In fact, nine of their top 11 picks in the most recent draft were pitchers. The Twins clearly believe they can figure this out.

They’re betting heavily on their ability to identify arms, develop them and eventually turn them into major league contributors. Maybe guys like Quick, Prielipp and Abel will make me eat my words. Maybe one of them eventually becomes the kind of pitcher the Twins have been missing. But until that happens, I think the organization’s track record of developing major league starting pitchers is something worth addressing. Because teams can never have enough starting pitching, and right now, the Twins don’t seem to have enough of it coming from within.

View full article

[dxpavelka]

And we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation for minimal return.  AND it feels like we need an act of congress, a court order and a note from God to bring up some of our home grown hitting talent.

[Czelgert]

Remember when Falvey was hired largely on the reputation of Cleveland drafting and developing pitching?  That’s not to say that trading for young pitchers should get no credit, but Falvey had a large enough sample size to conclude he had zero to do with Cleveland’s success and was a lot more word salad than results.  

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

And we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation for minimal return.  AND it feels like we need an act of congress, a court order and a note from God to bring up some of our home grown hitting talent.

They really whiffed on that trade.  I will cut them a little slack because the national writers generally thought the Twins did very well in that trade.  However, teams like the Twins just can't afford to whiff when trading an asset like Berrios.  Cleveland has turned a lot of 1-1/2-year assets into 6-year assets and that's a big part of how they have put 90-win teams on the field far more often than most teams in the bottom half of revenue.    

It was a good move to trade him given we were out of that year and he was considerably below average the following year which was his last year of team control.  He also has only had one good year since the extension so it certainly was not a mistake to let him go.  However, the still blew an opportunity to improve the club for 5-7 years and they whiffed.     

[DJL44]

Zero pitching from international free agency