Two of the Longest-Tenured Twins Could Be Nearing the End In Different Ways

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I personally think Larnach becomes the primary DH but who knows.  Maybe Keaschall takes that for the majority of his games.  

My guess is we’re seeing Larnach’s ceiling. That makes him an appealing trade chip. Emma’s ceiling is way higher, and he has to be on the roster next year (unless, of course, he’s on the IL), as his trade value is down. For all there is to like about Larnach this year, he is not the regular DH on a team looking to do more than scrape into a wildcard spot.

[NYCTK]

19 minutes ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

Not sure I get the logic of going to arb  with  him likely getting 7 million or so or paying him to avoid arb , then turning around and trading him. Why not just spend that money on the type of player they want or need? So far the picking up of the 10 million option on Polanco hasn't worked too well, but lets give it another go? Neither did paying Farmer 6.3 (plus the 250k buyout in 2025) to avoid arbitration. If the Twins don't have a minor league player/prospect that can give them under 5 WAR over the next 6 years the FO should be fired.

This is definitely true for Larnach. The $7M he'd get in arbitration isn't any real discount on what you'd expect him to get in free agency, seeing as how the Twins paid $7M for Bell. 

Ober, I think it's closer to a value call, but similarly think he's not likely to get $7M in free agency, nor should you expect to pay more than $7M for a #5 caliber pitcher. For example, Griffin Canning got $2.5M this year. 

Non-tender both. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You might be right but they would still have Lopez / Bradley / Kremer / Prielipp / Abel / Matthews / Rojas / Paredes and maybe Festa.  Abel was very good before going down.  Prielipp looks like he belongs and Rojas is finding his command.  If Rojas improves his command, he has to be in the rotation.  Even if they trade Ryan, they have 4 veterans if Ober stays.  That normally would be good but not when 3 or of these young guys look to have considerably more upside than Ober. 

I think the next off-season will be interesting. 

We will have 7 returning players who will be in their last year. 4 of them in the starting rotation with Ryan, Lopez, Ober and Kramer. Hoffman and Banda in the bullpen and then there is Larnach. 

What will the front office do? I have no idea? Would I do? I have no idea either. 

In it's simplest form... I'm always most interested in players that will be back the following year and would like to get something for players before they walk for nothing.

However, the teams that you are able to trade them to are teams that consider themselves contenders and I assume the Twins will consider themselves contenders in the off-season so therefore not willing to cash them in. 

Starting with the 4 in the rotation. That's a lot of arms coming out of the rotation and I don't think they can move everyone. At this point... Might as well keep Ryan and Lopez and build around them. 

Hoffman and Banda can hang around if we want them. We need capable bullpen arms. 

Larnach... I'll be ready to consider a deal. Last off-season... I wasn't... this off-season... I will be. 

 

[Linus]

I’m viewing this from the perspective of would either of these guys be a part of a serious playoff contender?  In my opinion we need to add 2-3 difference making players to make that happen. Where could that happen?  The logical spots are the two corner infield spots and / or the two corner outfield spots plus DH. Not all these guys have to go but left field sure looks like a spot that could be improved. I see many people constructing lineups for next year that are pretty much the same guys. I just don’t understand why you would largely return a lineup that has been well under 500 the last two seasons and poor defensively as well. 

[MikeNC]

4 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I think Keaschall could effectively be that RH bat that also plays in a corner outfield spot against righties.  Martin or an equivalent RH bat could take Keaschall's spot in the field when he's at DH.  That would basically leave you a Martin/Larnach DH platoon, only Martin does the fielding for Keaschall.  That would, I think, maximize the skillsets of all three of those players.  It would also leave the other two outfield spots for, say, Buxton and Jenkins.  If Buxton is out, then Jenkins can slide over to center and you can work Roden/Emma/whomever else in with Martin.  That could be one way to slide the current pieces together while retaining Larnach.

Looking at it this way, Roden and Emma sure start to look redundant.  

On a team LY that suddenly had ALL LH OF and two more such top prospects in AAA it made no sense whatsoever to pick up The Rodent.  I believe he was just a throw in they wanted to get rid of.  He has often looked competely lost at the plate.  I'd rather see one of our prospects learning that way than a guy who has no demostrated upside.

[Jacksson]

What's the difficult decision??  Dump them both for whatever you can get.

[RpR]

7 hours ago, Jacksson said:

What's the difficult decision??  Dump them both for whatever you can get.

That would be a losers play, that is ,what is difficult.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Who are you considering a #5 type pitcher - Ober?   The Twins should have one of the stronger rotations next year with ample upside.   

The Twins may feel that Ober fits as a #5 pitcher. 

Ryan/Lopez are #1/2, interchangeable and Kremer fits as a #4/5 guy.  There are some decent candidates for #3 or other spots depending on which direction the front office/owners wish to go. Among the viable candidates for the rotation are Prielipp, Abel, Rojas, Matthews,  and maybe someone else like Quick, Paredes, Morris, or Festa. 

What do you think?

[Craig Arko]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins may feel that Ober fits as a #5 pitcher. 

Ryan/Lopez are #1/2, interchangeable and Kremer fits as a #4/5 guy.  There are some decent candidates for #3 or other spots depending on which direction the front office/owners wish to go. Among the viable candidates for the rotation are Prielipp, Abel, Rojas, Matthews,  and maybe someone else like Quick, Paredes, Morris, or Festa. 

What do you think?

I think you forgot Taj Bradley.

[Nalinski]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

FanGraphs must be owned by the players union.  It put a $8M price tag on Ober and a $16M price tag on Larnach.  Ober is an extra starter on a starting pitching staff that ranks near the bottom of MLB.  And Larnach is a mid-range outfielder (who should NOT be on the field when the Twins are on defense)  That's a $24M value(?) on two players that may both be DFA'd when the season ends.

Agree….run-of-the-mill players….For the $24M they would command, the Twins could find 4 other “millers” for $6M per w/ similar on field production….

[Patzky]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

I have to wonder if Kremer will take over Ober's spot, given their arbitration numbers should be close.

Maybe we can split the difference and get Krober. Lets see how Pablo, Abel, and Festa feel next spring. Let's see some solid appearances by Ryan when he returns. Prielipp, Taj, and Ryan seem locked in as likely starters. Pablo and Abel too if healthy. Rojas? Kremer? If you keep Ober as a starter you could slide Zebby and maybe even Abel to the bullpen to accompany Hoffman Morris and Gomez. It's not an embarrassment of riches by any stretch but it's a lot of moving parts and some will quit moving after a few weeks as injuries arise. Personally I have a preference of a rotation consisting of Prielipp, Ryan, Taj, Pablo, and Kremer. Variety of looks. Abel Rojas Ober and Zebby at the ready in that order. If they are the relief corps meantime so be it. 

So far as Larnach, thanks for the good times buddy. We need that single digit uniform number for Vahn or Houston.

[TJSweens]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they trade Joe Ryan they’ll keep Bailey Ober.

That's not a given at all. Trade Ryan and they still have Lopez followed by Bradley, Kremer, Prielipp, Able, Matthews, Rojas, ...

With or without Ryan, there is no reason to keep Ober, who is about done.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

I think you forgot Taj Bradley.

That is hilarious because he is among my 3-4 favorite Twins pitcher.

So ..... any order - Bradley, Lopez, Ryan are a decent #1-3. Kremer and Ober work as #4-5. That leaves Prielipp, Abel, Rojas, Matthews, Paredes, Morris, Festa, Quick  ....

My preference is to see Prielipp, Abel, and Rojas in the rotation. 

The Twins will have some decisions to make. 

What do you have? 

Who else did I miss?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins may feel that Ober fits as a #5 pitcher. 

Ryan/Lopez are #1/2, interchangeable and Kremer fits as a #4/5 guy.  There are some decent candidates for #3 or other spots depending on which direction the front office/owners wish to go. Among the viable candidates for the rotation are Prielipp, Abel, Rojas, Matthews,  and maybe someone else like Quick, Paredes, Morris, or Festa. 

What do you think?

I view Kremer as a 4 with upside. 

[Otwins]

If Ober stays healthy to end of the season send him to Driveline and see if some of his velocity can be re-caputured. He won't be that expensive to keep 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I view Kremer as a 4 with upside. 

@HarmonK03- Kremer has a .5 WAR and a slightly over 3 ERA for the Twins in 3 starts. Granted small sample size but that is #2 starter quality. Do I expect that next year no, but I do think he does have the upside of #3 starter stats.  

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

@HarmonK03- Kremer has a .5 WAR and a slightly over 3 ERA for the Twins in 3 starts. Granted small sample size but that is #2 starter quality. Do I expect that next year no, but I do think he does have the upside of #3 starter stats.  

I look at his history with Baltimore he was a #4 at best, probably #5.  Pete Maki is not some pitching whisperer, this was a good trade for depth for this year.  But I need to see a lot more than 3 starts especially when he started to blow up in the sixth in one of them.

This is a similar take to Alex Jackson will be claimed 100% fact.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, HarmonK03 said:

I look at his history with Baltimore he was a #4 at best, probably #5.  Pete Maki is not some pitching whisperer, this was a good trade for depth for this year.  But I need to see a lot more than 3 starts especially when he started to blow up in the sixth in one of them.

This is a similar take to Alex Jackson will be claimed 100% fact.

Regarding Bradley, I would disagree- Maki has done wonders.  Kremer is much better than Jackson.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, TJSweens said:

That's not a given at all. Trade Ryan and they still have Lopez followed by Bradley, Kremer, Prielipp, Able, Matthews, Rojas, ...

With or without Ryan, there is no reason to keep Ober, who is about done.

They will limit innings for Lopez and Abel coming off surgery. Someone else will get injured. They need 8-9 starters to get through the season.

[TJSweens]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They will limit innings for Lopez and Abel coming off surgery. Someone else will get injured. They need 8-9 starters to get through the season.

They will have about that many without Ober. If they pay him, that guarantees he makes the team out of spring training and takes a roster spot from a more deserving pitcher.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Regarding Bradley, I would disagree- Maki has done wonders.  Kremer is much better than Jackson.  

But I  thought Jackson was future a All-Star.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

But I  thought Jackson was future a All-Star.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

I look at his history with Baltimore he was a #4 at best, probably #5.  Pete Maki is not some pitching whisperer, this was a good trade for depth for this year.  But I need to see a lot more than 3 starts especially when he started to blow up in the sixth in one of them.

This is a similar take to Alex Jackson will be claimed 100% fact.

What do you believe the Twins will choose as a starting five next year, or what five would you choose? Does Ober return or is he let go/ perhaps traded?

What do you believe the Twins should do with Trevor Larnach next year?

I believe this was more or less the idea of the article.

There are more than a few people who frequent Twins Daily who were less than enchanted with the recent deadline roster decisions. It makes little sense to become overly grumpy, sarcastic, or negative. We are merely fans. On our best day we don't know very much and i say that as someone who made good money working in baseball. Don't let the way things go ruin your day or cause such severe reactions. 

BTW, after a rather crushing loss Sunday, the wins the last two nights were fun stuff. 2026 sure beats the last two years of Twins play. Right? Even if the team is still below .500, not exactly more than mediocre much of the time, these mid August games are entertaining.

[dxpavelka]

How excited should we be about a guy six years into his big league career for whom "finally putting it together" is probably going to amount to fewer than 15 home runs and fewer than 60 RBI?

[HarmonK03]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What do you believe the Twins will choose as a starting five next year, or what five would you choose? Does Ober return or is he let go/ perhaps traded?

What do you believe the Twins should do with Trevor Larnach next year?

I believe this was more or less the idea of the article.

There are more than a few people who frequent Twins Daily who were less than enchanted with the recent deadline roster decisions. It makes little sense to become overly grumpy, sarcastic, or negative. We are merely fans. On our best day we don't know very much and i say that as someone who made good money working in baseball. Don't let the way things go ruin your day or cause such severe reactions. 

BTW, after a rather crushing loss Sunday, the wins the last two nights were fun stuff. 2026 sure beats the last two years of Twins play. Right? Even if the team is still below .500, not exactly more than mediocre much of the time, these mid August games are entertaining.

I think next year the rotation should be Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, with Preilipp, Matthews and Kremer battling for the final two spots.  And we let Ober go, which I wish wasn't the case, I have always have been a fan of his but it is time.  I think Preilipp and Matthews have earned the right to be penciled in at the back end but can't remember Kremer's contract situation and want to see him earn a spot not be given one due to contract.  Abel and Rojas would be the first two called up from St. Paul.  I am not counting on Festa on any role until he can show he is healthy.

They also have to move on from Larnach unless the plan is sign another one year bridge fringe veteran, than I would keep Larnach as DH.  They need to commit to ERod and Jenkins next year and use the DH on a rotating basis with Keaschall and Buxton the other outfielders.  At some point they have to commit to the players in St. Paul.   They need to use the assets they have in the minors either to trade for proven position starters and not one year fringe veterans or bring them up and commit to them.

The continual signing of one year veterans and putting them into roles that are probably one step above of where they should be is not working and there is an opportunity cost to not giving your younger players a chance.  The Bell signing is an example, if he's signed, is ERod on the roster from day 1, does he do poorly or does he start to show he can be a part of the core of the team.  And I am looking at it from the time of when the signing was made.  Even now Bell is best utilized probably in the 6th or 7th spot of the batting order and being the 3rd or 4th bat you rely not the top power threat.

You are right the games are more entertaining, but I also want to see that they can sustain some level of competitiveness.  And they are struggling to do that even on a week to week level, which I know can be the nature of baseball.  But what is the plan that says hey next year we can build off this season and the things Shelty is doing on the field and raise the talent level on this team.  And quite honestly the current decision makers don't give me that hope.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

I hope that Larnach can find his mojo at the plate. He’s been part of the offensive problem since the trade deadline. He’s due a raise in 2027 and it will probably be in the $7 to $8m range. Unless he shows us something different I think that money can be better spent.

Last 15 games - .160.236.280

 

Last 15 games …….he ‘s been pretty bad…….swinging at pitches he laid off of almost all year. First 110 games pretty SOLID! IMO, he should be a lock for DH in a platoon with Keaschall & Buxton.

Pick a 15-35 game stretch for Lee - Lewis - Buxton - Keaschall- Bell……..ALL have been terrible for long stretches.

I REALLY don’t understand the dominant thinking here that the Team can’t afford to pay anyone? They spent $50M more in ‘23 than in ‘26. The owner says “they need to spend more”. …….”Baseball”, after negotiations this off-season, is going to have some minimum spending expectations for Teams to get their revenue share going forward.

In ‘27, Buxton makes $15.5M - Ryan is at $13-$19M - Lopez is at $22,5M - Caratini is at $10M including his ‘28 buyout……Correa’s $10M owed……..that ‘s around $75M………..On paper, Bell & Jeffers are gone ($12M)…….they have Lee-Lewis-Clemens-Keaschall-Martin, all at LOW cost - maybe $8-$9M total?……..back to $74M at this point. Kremer-Hoffman….$15M(?)

Ober & Larnach …….$13M(?) total. That’s $102M ………everyone else is at minimum or pretty close (i.e. Sands/Banda)……this includes Larnach & Ober.

I do not understand why the Team has to” be careful” not to spend on any existing player that contributes???

[Whitey333]

Yes indeed tough decisions for next years roster.  Its a good problem to have i guessing.  The desire to be a mediocre team ( that's what a .500 team is) will do that.  I suspect Larnach will be gone.  I also suspect Ober may be gone.  What abouy Jeffers? Going to lose him for basically nothing?  Oh yes that supplementary draft pick.  Big deal.  Hes worth more than a deaft pic that may be nothing.  They should have traded him IMO.  Olso Pedro Lopez and his 21.5 million next year is in question.  Hiw will he perform after sitting out thus year?  I dont see the Twi s keeping him past next yesr with such a lofty salary.  Andover what about Josh Bell?  There's a lot of Bell haters here but he leads the team in RBI nearing 80.  FanGraphs is a joke.  They conti ually over rate players salary expectations vs performances.  

[Jeff K]

Do the Twins want to improve their defense, or not?  Larnach could be a part time DH, but that just doesn't seem like a smart roster decision.  He has been decent this year, but let him go.  Maybe Ober finds something this offseason.  If not, he probably won't go north after spring training.

[mikelink45]

Time to move on - that's what smaller market teams do when they have young talent pushing for playing time.  We can replace both of them.  The long-term player we seem destined to lose and can't afford to is Jeffers. We have enough pitching depth at this time and enough DH/OF depth, but not catcher for next year and I am not looking forward to Caratini full time.  

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Last 15 games …….he ‘s been pretty bad…….swinging at pitches he laid off of almost all year. First 110 games pretty SOLID! IMO, he should be a lock for DH in a platoon with Keaschall & Buxton.

Pick a 15-35 game stretch for Lee - Lewis - Buxton - Keaschall- Bell……..ALL have been terrible for long stretches.

I REALLY don’t understand the dominant thinking here that the Team can’t afford to pay anyone? They spent $50M more in ‘23 than in ‘26. The owner says “they need to spend more”. …….”Baseball”, after negotiations this off-season, is going to have some minimum spending expectations for Teams to get their revenue share going forward.

In ‘27, Buxton makes $15.5M - Ryan is at $13-$19M - Lopez is at $22,5M - Caratini is at $10M including his ‘28 buyout……Correa’s $10M owed……..that ‘s around $75M………..On paper, Bell & Jeffers are gone ($12M)…….they have Lee-Lewis-Clemens-Keaschall-Martin, all at LOW cost - maybe $8-$9M total?……..back to $74M at this point. Kremer-Hoffman….$15M(?)

Ober & Larnach …….$13M(?) total. That’s $102M ………everyone else is at minimum or pretty close (i.e. Sands/Banda)……this includes Larnach & Ober.

I do not understand why the Team has to” be careful” not to spend on any existing player that contributes???

Expand the to last 30 and the picture is not much better .232.303.414

I’m definitely not saying don’t spend money. I’m saying spend it more wisely. Sign Yandy Diaz to be the DH. We need more production from our corner outfielders and DH.