Should Derek Shelton Have Loaded the Bases?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After taking the opener of a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners on Friday night, the Twins looked poised to leave Seattle with another series victory. Instead, they suffered back-to-back walk-off losses on Saturday and Sunday, dropping the series in heartbreaking fashion.

Those games featured remarkably similar situations in the bottom of the ninth inning. In each case, Derek Shelton had the opportunity to intentionally load the bases and create force outs at every base, and both times, he chose not to. While the decisions looked similar on the surface, they weren't equal. One was rooted in solid process. The other is much harder to defend.

Saturday's game presented the first opportunity. With one out in the bottom of the ninth and the score tied, Seattle had runners on first and third after the Twins intentionally walked Julio Rodríguez. That brought Cal Raleigh to the plate, leaving Shelton with a choice. He could intentionally walk Raleigh to load the bases and create force plays everywhere, or trust his closer (on that day, Andrew Morris) to get Raleigh out.

Given the circumstances, pitching to Raleigh wasn't an unreasonable decision. Before that at-bat, Raleigh was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Josh Naylor, a left-handed hitter, was waiting on deck, and Raleigh had looked overmatched all afternoon. It wasn't simply a matter of challenging one of baseball's premier (albeit struggling) sluggers. Shelton had reason to believe Raleigh wasn't seeing the ball well, and the matchup wasn't nearly as intimidating as it normally would have been.

Ironically, the Twins got exactly the result they were hoping for. Raleigh hit a routine ground ball to first base that should have ended the inning with a double play. Instead, Royce Lewis had a momentary brain freeze. After fielding the ball, he instinctively stepped on first base, eliminating all force plays, and then hesitated before attempting to throw home anyway. Because the runner now had to be tagged instead of forced out, Lewis's throw wasn't good enough, and the winning run crossed the plate.

It was a painful ending, but it doesn't necessarily mean the strategy was wrong. Shelton trusted his defense to make a routine play, and more often than not, they probably do.

Sunday's situation felt much different. Again, the game was tied in the bottom of the ninth, with one out. This time, the Mariners had runners on second and third with top prospect Colt Emerson due up against closer Yoendrys Gómez. Shelton once again had the option of intentionally loading the bases, creating force outs everywhere while bringing the No. 9 hitter, Leo Rivas, to the plate.

Instead, he elected to pitch to Emerson. That's where the decision becomes much harder to understand. Unlike Raleigh the day before, Emerson wasn't coming off an 0-for-4 afternoon with three strikeouts. He is one of Seattle's premier young hitters (though he's admittedly struggled to begin his major-league career), and he also held the platoon advantage against the right-handed Gómez. By putting him on first, the Twins not only would have set up force plays at every base, but also would have been facing Rivas, who entered the game hitting just .127.

Yes, there was always the possibility that Seattle would counter by pinch-hitting with Rob Refsnyder or Mitch Garver for Rivas. Even then, the Twins still would have had force plays at every base, and Refsnyder entered the game hitting just .140. Both Refsnyder and Garver are right-handed batters, so that also would have netted the Twins the platoon advantage, Minnesota still would have been in a favorable position to escape with a ground ball.

Instead, Shelton challenged Emerson. The result was exactly what the Twins feared. Emerson lined a game-winning single before Rivas ever had an opportunity to step into the batter's box.

Baseball strategy is always easier to criticize after the outcome is known, and intentional walks have burned plenty of managers over the years. The results alone shouldn't determine whether the process was sound. That's why these two games deserve to be evaluated differently.

Saturday's decision made sense. Raleigh had been shut down all game, and the Twins induced the exact contact they wanted. A defensive mistake, not the managerial decision, ultimately cost them the game.

Sunday, however, feels like a missed opportunity. The Twins had a chance to avoid pitching to one of Seattle's most dangerous young hitters, while setting up force plays all over the diamond against a struggling No. 9 hitter. Instead, they chose the more difficult path, and this time, it came back to bite them immediately. The outcomes may have looked the same, but the process certainly didn't.

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What do you think? Was Shelton right to avoid the bases-loaded situation on Saturday and Sunday? Leave a comment and start the conversation!

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[Twins GFP]

Hindsight is 20/20.

[AceWrigley]

I would have walked him to fill the bases. I'd rather pitch to Rivas or RH pinch hitter than Emerson and It focuses the defense on getting the no-tag out at home no matter where the ball is hit and you can still attempt completing the DP at 1B.

[thelanges5]

Maybe he was getting too far ahead of himself, but he was thinking Gómez may walk in the winning run with bases loaded. 

[The Great Hambino]

I used to think this was a walk the bases loaded 10 times out of 10 situation

Somewhere along the line, I became convinced that I might've been overlooking the fact that doing so completely removes the margin for error for the pitcher and might change the way he pitches, especially if he falls behind in the count.

I think it's reasonable to look at Saturday's situation and pitch to the 2026 version of Raleigh.  Sunday?  The case for walking them full is stronger.

Ultimately in both cases,  they lost because the players didn't execute.  People sometimes fall for the logical fallacy that Option A didn't work, therefore Option B would've worked.  That's not how it works.  

[Saxophone Joe]

Like Dan Hayes pointed out - and I just realized was pointed out above - what Shelton left unsaid in his explanation (but was likely a factor in his decision) was that Gomez has walked 15 batters in 33 innings. 

[Eris]

It is also about execution. Gómez’s pitch caught way too much of the plate. The run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is 0.887 and with the bases loaded and one out it is close to 1.5. 

[Patzky]

23 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Maybe he was getting too far ahead of himself, but he was thinking Gómez may walk in the winning run with bases loaded. 

He's always a bit wild so that's a valid concern. A better AB from Josh Bell in the ninth and we might have had more leash to play with (can't really fault the effort given to mount the comeback in the first place.)

If you're that worried about your infield knowing where the play should be, that does say a bit about the personnel and/ or the positioning of them.

[nicksaviking]

Interesting that this headline could have been used for both of the last two games.

I'd still say no to the bases loaded. Free passes have been an issue for the Twins bullpen this year.

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Interesting that this headline could have been used for both of the last two games.

I'd still say no to the bases loaded. Free passes have been an issue for the Twins bullpen this year.

Once you intentionally walk it's often hard to avoid an unintentional one.

[thelanges5]

11 minutes ago, Patzky said:

He's always a bit wild so that's a valid concern. A better AB from Josh Bell in the ninth and we might have had more leash to play with (can't really fault the effort given to mount the comeback in the first place.)

If you're that worried about your infield knowing where the play should be, that does say a bit about the personnel and/ or the positioning of them.

If Larnach was a little faster, that Naylor double might not have been a thing and it wouldn’t have mattered 😀

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, thelanges5 said:

If Larnach was a little faster, that Naylor double might not have been a thing and it wouldn’t have mattered 😀

Lot of ifs every time aren't there. You're not wrong. Wonder IF he'll be around tomorrow to make another one.

[tony&rodney]

Adding to the above comments, a manager will not intentionally walk the bases full when the pitcher is not experienced and a known control pitcher. There needs to be some room for error. The pitcher knows they have an open base and can attack the hitter more carefully. In this case the execution was less than desired. On Saturday, the desired ground ball found a glove but an unfortunate mistake led to the winning run. Shelton played it textbook correct. Still it is a reasonable question to ponder.

[ToddPetter]

In Sunday’s game there was one out with runners on third and second. If you walk the 8 hitter you will face the 9 hitter AND likely the 1 hitter. The 1 hitter, Cole Young, was 4 for 5 on the day. I’d rather face 8 and 9. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Walks by Twins pitchers are the bane of my existence.

[thelanges5]

I looked it up and I thought it would be worse but surprisingly they’re only 19th in walks allowed.

[Western SD Fan]

1 hour ago, ToddPetter said:

In Sunday’s game there was one out with runners on third and second. If you walk the 8 hitter you will face the 9 hitter AND likely the 1 hitter. The 1 hitter, Cole Young, was 4 for 5 on the day. I’d rather face 8 and 9. 

You and Shelton had the same philosophy.  In the postgame presser, Shelton said the exact same thing.  He didn't want to face Young if he didn't have to.  Chose to go after Emerson.  Emerson did his job and won the game.  Happens in baseball.

[MMBoys93]

Gómez walking a batter every other inning likely played into that choice 

[Coach]

Hindsight.

[Riverbrian]

Certainly could of considered an Intentional walk yesterday... However... Colt Emerson strikes out at a 33% clip with a higher chase rate and therefore a low percentage of barrels and hard hits. 

I wouldn't have walked Colt but I certainly wouldn't have thrown three fastballs in a row nearly dead center.

Try to get him to chase... Get that K making him swing at pitches out of the zone. If he doesn't bite... then you have your walk. Just don't throw him 3 fastballs down the middle.

Don't throw anyone 3 fastballs down the middle. 

As for being worried about Cole Young. The guy has a .325 On Base. You still a two thirds probability of getting an out no matter how hot he has been against the Twins. However... Once again... If you get to Cole Young with the bases loaded and 2 outs... I still wouldn't recommend 3 fastballs in a row down the middle but it's a little more justified since a walk ends the game.   

Saturday... Lewis just plain blew that play. Could have turned a 3-6-3 double play on that one or at least froze Arozerena by staring at him while walking backwards to first for the 2nd out. 

Stepping on first first and then looking to second before throwing home was the worst thing he could have done. 

 

[djvang]

If noodle-arm Keaschall hadn't tried to throw Naylor out at 3rd it would have kept a DP a possibility. 

Edited Monday at 06:14 PM by djvang
spelling

[S Bart]

Practice strategic bunting a bit...might help the challenge of leaving men on base so much

[Andy MacPhail]

 

I'd normally play the odds & I'd load the bases. But because of the wisdom of the comments maybe I wouldn't now

[weitz41]

It's a fair point. Gomez did have him down 1-2 throwing straight heat. Maybe a cutter or sweeper would have been a better pitch rather than a 4th fastball in a row. Going after a rookie with a .200 BA .600 OPS or the next guy seems like a wash to me.

Such is baseball.

[jkcarew]

 

Twins had an 85% lose probability before the hit. You pull the rabbit out of the hat and you’re tied, playing Manfred ball on the road. The choices were pitch to the guy or walk him and (very likely) BEST case, you’re facing Young with the bases juiced. Our guy threw three straight fastballs in the same exact (pretty hittable) location…and their guy beat him.

[h2oface]

7 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

Hindsight is 20/20.

Cliche. 
it’s not hindsight if you felt it before the play happened. Just because you talk about it later doesn’t mean an idea is hindsight. 

[LyleCole]

13 hours ago, Eris said:

It is also about execution. Gómez’s pitch caught way too much of the plate. The run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is 0.887 and with the bases loaded and one out it is close to 1.5. 

This is another misapplication of statistics.   The reason is that the magic number in this scenario is 1.0.   The extra 0.5 runs is meaningless.   TO not lose the game you must prevent ONE run from scoring.  What makes this scenario misapplied is that because you have to prevent the single run, with one out and runners on 2nd and 3rd you need to play the infield in and your pitcher cannot let the ball get in the air with any depth.   

But if you walk to load the bases, then the infield can play at DP depth which eliminates the balls that would get through when the infield is playing in, brings into play the double play ending the threat, and allows the force out at home plate on balls hit to the corner IF (see Hrbek in World Series) and the home to first double play.  The fly ball scenarios are identical because a deep enough fly ball to the OF would score the runner from 3rd in both scenarios.

Personally, I think the optimal strategy facing the #8 hitter with a .200 BA and .611 OPS is to pitch to him and see if you can get ahead in the count.  Make him swing at the pitcher's pitch.   If you fall behind, lets say 2-0,  then walk him but not intentionally.  Throw 2 balls outside the strike zone, again hoping to induce a swing.

[Whitey333]

Interesting comments.  One of the frustrating things for me is this new attitude about process being more important than results.  The result is most import. As far as Lewis bad play at first.  It's understandable when you consider he and many others are moved around and hardly play one or a normal position.  That's part of the price you pay by having guys play multiple positions.  It's convenient but not always practical or workable.  But i like Shelton much better than Rocco.