Report: Rival Teams Expect Twins To Trade Ryan Jeffers

[TNtwins85]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The qualifying offer occurs before the CBA expires. Yes future years it is gone but it’s still viable for this year. Due to market dynamics he is likely traded in an overpay, a team that plans to sign him to long term contract Yankees, or Tampa Bay who views him as the final piece.  There are now 5 teams interested in a catcher and Jeffers is the only elite/very good catcher left. The value will be more than a comp pick.  

Exactly! Thank you for the accuracy and logic!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

The QO won’t magically be gone. It still exists until December. Long after he would be offered it and either accept or reject it. He wants to be a free agent. He hired Boras for that. The Twins never offered the contract he wanted. Trade him now. If not now you get either nothing or a late 1st rounder. A lottery ticket you could ask for in a trade now while also getting a back end top 100 prospect. Unless you are leading the division and marching towards a WS run which the Twins are not you trade him.

If you are traded the qualifying offer can’t be used.  Hence why it’s in Jeffers best interest to be traded. 

[HerbieFan]

I keep racking my brain to try and find a reason why the best move is to keep him through this season.  This is not a serious playoff team.  It was never going to be a serious playoff team.  They might make the playoffs, but.  It's been a fun team to watch....they battle offensively and I'm shocked it's team within one game of .500.  I just hate losing good players, but he's leaving anyway.  I guess it would depend on the return....hopefully with Langeliers out of the picture it creates a mini bidding war for Jeffers. 

[Whitey333]

Yes it would be prudent to trade Jeffers.  Don't settle for a crapshoot compensatory draft pick. Get something decent for him now.  Trade him this week.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I totally understand why people want to keep Jeffers. If he'll take a three year deal for like 15 a year? I do that, sure. I just doubt it, and it's why I deal him for a AA SP in the 50-120 range, even if I have to throw in a low level SP from MN to do that. But I get why others disagree.

I think the SEA dream might be dead, as they seem to be fading....

I certainly don't have high hopes for Hancock, but the Mariners are half a game behind the Twins, closer to their division leader, and have been just as good over their last 10 as the Twins. If the Mariners aren't trying, it's hard to argue the Twins should.

I know you're not one advocating the Twins "go for it" or anything, just pointing out the circumstances of the 2 teams.

[olerud]

100% yes without a doubt!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Now this is where it gets interesting. In my opinion, we will have traded Peyton Eeles for potentially a top 100 prospect, you can laugh but without getting Alex Jackson I don’t think the Twins consider trading Jeffers. We have a young staff the last thing we need is inexperienced Triple A catchers creating another hurdle in trying to make them successful. Now we got lucky no one put in a claim for Alex at the beginning of the season. I thought we would trade Alex then. However there was no major injuries of catchers no teams having major needs. The supply demand dynamics have completely flipped just as we are getting to the deadline.  

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

I keep racking my brain to try and find a reason why the best move is to keep him through this season.  This is not a serious playoff team.  It was never going to be a serious playoff team.  They might make the playoffs, but.  It's been a fun team to watch....they battle offensively and I'm shocked it's team within one game of .500.  I just hate losing good players, but he's leaving anyway.  I guess it would depend on the return....hopefully with Langeliers out of the picture it creates a mini bidding war for Jeffers. 

I’ll take a shot. You may or may not agree, but I think they are things to consider..

1. As you note, it does depend a ton on what the return is. I guess I’m not as convinced as others on the amount they receive. Which is related to…

2. Is what they will get substantially more than what they would get with a comp pick? As others have noted above, the QO piece may change with a new CBA, but because the QO process is resolved before the Dec. 1 and some free agent contracts will have been signed by then, it’s hard for me to see a new CBA affecting this year’s offseason. 

3. Trading him takes away the slight possibility of accepting a QO. I don’t think he will, but if he’s healthy, I’m strong considering offering it. People think it’s a no brainer that he would accept it. I don’t. I think the salient comparable contracts are that Raleigh’s contract buys out his final arb year and then gets him $24.66M for his 31-33 seasons and that Realmuto got $23.875M for his 31-34 seasons back in 2022-25. Will Smith’s AAV is only $14M, but it took guaranteeing 10 years to get it that low. Is Jeffers as good as Realmuto or Raleigh? Probably not, but consider inflation and that Jeffers is a year younger. I could see something like 3/$60M or 4/$72M as his targets. Even if $23M is high on a per-season basis, Raleigh is a good example of why a catcher is going to be really reluctant to pass on a potential long-term deal. AND if Jeffers does take it, cool. It probably is an overpay, but it’s only a one-year deal and puts them in a very good spot. They’d even now have Caratini or Jackson as a trade chip. 

4. Trading him lessens the chance of him resigning. Folks rightly note that trading him doesn’t preclude the option of resigning him, but there are very few instances where that actually happens. Rather than saying, “We’re trading you, but we’d like to bring you back” sounds a lot different than, “We do really want to extend you. In fact, we want to so badly that we don’t want you to even taste another team’s clubhouse. 

5. I think there’s also psychology involved. Particularly on the heels of last year, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to the remaining players. I don’t want to do that. Conversely, keeping him sends a message that the FO is committed, particularly if they pair it with modest adds, perhaps a rental starting pitcher for a modest prospect or a reliever for the same. I’m talking a Sergio Romo for Lewin Diaz-level trade.

6. Similarly, in the context of their fan PR, trading Jeffers sends a brutal message to fans. Keeping him and even making some minor trades to add communicates to fans that they are trying. Giving him a QO and seeing him decline sends a positive message that they are trying. Giving him a QO and having him accept it sends a positive message. Yes, folks on TD will be angry that the didn’t get an extension done in those cases, but I’m not sure the general public (the ones on the season-ticket call list) views it quite the same way. 

7. Catchers play a role in pitcher development. I like the thought of the young pitchers having two more months of throwing to the veteran catcher. I think keeping Jeffers has a better chance of contributing to pitcher development than trading him does. 

8. Keeping him helps their chances for 2026. Does keeping him turn them into World Series contenders? No, but even a first-round loss contributes to ticket sales that will be significant on the heels of the PR debacles of the last several off seasons.

Those are nuanced reasons for keeping him. None of them is reason by itself. The composite of them may or may not convince you, but I offer them as additional factors that move the conversation past “trade him or lose him for nothing” as the only consideration.

[SteveLV]

Two thoughts, and the first is dead obvious:

1)  It depends on the trade offer coming back.

2) I would hope and expect the Twins have had or will have a discussion with Jeffers and Boras about what they are looking for in the next contract.

In a perfect world the market heats up and the Twins get excellent value for Jeffers, then open up the Pohlad wallet and sign him to an extension this off-season to, hopefully, complete his career with the Twins where it appears he is happy to play.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

It would have to be one heck of a return if our best hitter is traded while ownership claims we are all in on being competitive. One of the best catchers in the league seems like he'd be a good investment to extend or at the very least, give him the QO.

On the business end, I understand trading a guy on an expiring contract to get something for him. Strike while the iron is hot and all. But this particular player is probably top 5 in the league at his position, give or take. That kind of player is not easily replaced, nor is his production. 

[SteveLV]

Does 5/$75M get a deal done with Jeffers at this point, or will it take more?  4/$70m?

That would be a strong move by Pohlad and the Twins FO, very good for morale of fan base.

[Coach JT]

Yes I would trade him but only for pitching - left handed starter AA and Aaa top prospect. Pitching and more pitching . 

[LambchoP]

With multiple teams looking for catching, and Jeffers the only realistic option available now that Langaliers went down, I think we can maybe get close to a top 100 prospect. Even if we have to throw in a sweetener of our own, hopefully we can hit on a good young pitcher.

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

 

Realmuto got $45M for 3 years. I'd offer $60M for 4 years and see where it takes you.

I really like how Jeffers has matured into a much more consistent contributor at the plate …….tough to see him go! Has become a high level hitter!!

Team just spent first two picks on Catchers. Longer term extension, anything more than 1 or 2 years doesn’t seem realistic to me.

I’d extend Jackson for 2 years at $5.5M total. I assume that if the QO goes away, Owners will get to use the approach at least one more time prior to rule change. Offer Jeffers the QO.

Trade Caratini now - with another year under contract and decent performance this season with much bigger workload, switch hitter, can play 1B……..his value at deadline (now) is as high or higher than Jeffers!

Trade Bell and Wallner and pitching prospect for a relief arm…….. target Pittsburgh, IMO. O’Neil Cruz out remainder of the season & they are in the hunt.

Saving $14M on Bell & Caratini. Make a big swing with prospects for Luis Arraez and his $12M salary. …….if upcoming negotiations create a floor for Team spending, I try to re-sign Luis for 2-3 years. With Arraez hitting #3 or #5 and protecting Buxton or Lewis or Jeffers, line-up becomes much more dangerous! Can play 2B through next year and roll to DH if necessary in last year or two of deal.

Arraez allows stability at 2B with solid play. Clemens & Keaschall in corner OF spots w/Martin. If Bell is traded, then Larnach slots at DH for 75% of games going forward.

[tony&rodney]

If the Twins receive a fair offer, Jeffers is gone. Jeffers and the players know that. There is no reason to trade Jeffers unless a team pays the high price. It won't hurt the organization to not get anything at all when Jeffers signs with another team. While I would like to see Jeffers remain a Twins, he will be a free agent after the season. I see this as a win-win. Keep him for two months or receive a good player in a transaction.

[amjgt]

19 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Decline the QO?  Why would anyone turn down $23M for a one year deal?  He can be a free agent after 2027, can't he?  And because there may be a work stoppage during the 2027 season and you may be without an income, why not get paid as much as possible before you have to sit on your butt for a couple months?

Risk. Certainly he's aware of how badly Raleigh has fallen off a cliff this year. Injuries. Aging. Poor Performance. Those are all reasons why he might not be as valuable in a year. His choices might be a) 1 year 23M QO contract and hope that his value remains high for the 2028 season or b) Decline the QO and lock in a 4 year 60M contract (I intentionally used a number that I think is on the low end of what he will get). 

If we look at those two options straight up, it's a classic "betting on yourself" choice. Option 1 probably allows you to have the highest possible career earnings. Option 2 carries far less risk.

BUT... the CBA/Lockout throws a little wrench into this classic "bet on himself." The guaranteed $23M isn't really $23M guaranteed. It's a guaranteed contract with a $23M value. That might seem like some fancy meaningless wordsmithing, but in this case it matters. Any games missed due to a lockout would eat into that $23M guarantee. I'm not going to predict lost games because of the CBA, but what if that $23M contract actually only pays him $16M because of missed games? The whole reason to go with option 1 above was to lock in an overpay for a year. You've taken on the 1 year risk for the reasons discussed, but now your actual 2027 payday looks a lot like the AAV of the long term contract you could have signed, so what was even the point? 

If I'm in the Jeffers camp I'm turning down the QO and negotiating something like 4/70M with a $12M signing bonus and a 2027 salary of $5M. That might actually earn more in 2027 than a prorated QO. 

[Twins GFP]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I really expect Wallner to go on  tiny deal for an A ball pitcher.

I expect them to send out a middling prospect for a RP.

I have other hopes....but that's what I THINK they do (whether they deal Jeffers or not). 

This falls in line with my thinking as well. There is a team out there that sees Wallner's success in AAA and thinks that he could help their big club.

Any trade will see salary going out, with prospects, not salary, coming in. If any salary does come in, it will be very small.

[terrydactyls]

16 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Risk. Certainly he's aware of how badly Raleigh has fallen off a cliff this year. Injuries. Aging. Poor Performance. Those are all reasons why he might not be as valuable in a year. His choices might be a) 1 year 23M QO contract and hope that his value remains high for the 2028 season or b) Decline the QO and lock in a 4 year 60M contract (I intentionally used a number that I think is on the low end of what he will get). 

If we look at those two options straight up, it's a classic "betting on yourself" choice. Option 1 probably allows you to have the highest possible career earnings. Option 2 carries far less risk.

BUT... the CBA/Lockout throws a little wrench into this classic "bet on himself." The guaranteed $23M isn't really $23M guaranteed. It's a guaranteed contract with a $23M value. That might seem like some fancy meaningless wordsmithing, but in this case it matters. Any games missed due to a lockout would eat into that $23M guarantee. I'm not going to predict lost games because of the CBA, but what if that $23M contract actually only pays him $16M because of missed games? The whole reason to go with option 1 above was to lock in an overpay for a year. You've taken on the 1 year risk for the reasons discussed, but now your actual 2027 payday looks a lot like the AAV of the long term contract you could have signed, so what was even the point? 

If I'm in the Jeffers camp I'm turning down the QO and negotiating something like 4/70M with a $12M signing bonus and a 2027 salary of $5M. That might actually earn more in 2027 than a prorated QO. 

Except the long-term contract will also lose value if there is a work stoppage.  You "forgot" to factor that into your 2027 numbers.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins shouldn't continue the season with three catchers on the roster. 

Since Caratini has another year left on his deal. I assume he is going to remain a Twin.  

That means they have to try and pass Jackson through waivers or trade Jackson. 

Or they have to trade Jeffers. 

Unless of course... An injury changes the equation in the next week.

Olivar or Cardenas or Banuelos will need to be ready for possible MLB work if an injury occurs in August or September if Jeffers is traded or Jackson doesn't get through waivers. 

Or... a Rortvedt type pickup will be needed to get through the year. 

I'd expect Tait and Lackey will not be rushed up no matter what happens.  

 

 

[LewFordLives]

22 hours ago, ashbury said:

 

But if a really strong offer for Jeffers comes in, IMO the FO has to take it - losing Jeffers compromises the rest of the season (if it's still thought a playoff berth is attainable) less than at any other position on the field than corner outfield.

 

I don't know if I would go that far. All of their infielders are mediocre and highly fungible, evidenced by the fact they all have been playing multiple positions.

That said, I generally agree with you. I'm definitely not throwing in the towel on the season butiIf they get a strong offer they have to consider it. I would prefer the pieces that come back can help them this year. For instance, if they can get a decent reliever back I think it would make this a better team down the stretch, even without Jeffers.

[spanman2]

Price of poker just went up if they decide to trade him.  Stay tuned!

[amjgt]

37 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Except the long-term contract will also lose value if there is a work stoppage.  You "forgot" to factor that into your 2027 numbers.

Not with a signing bonus, which is why I structured it that way.

[twinfan]

I don't have a problem with them trading Jeffers but don't like either Carritini or Jackson for the future and I don't know anything about their minor league system. If the Yankees want Jeffers so badly, let them give us Dominguez, Luis Gil and Camilo Doval. 

[saviking]

21 hours ago, East Coast Twin said:

Presumably there will be players accepting qualifying offers prior to a December 1 shutdown.  I can't imagine a new CBA would negate such agreements.  Seems more reasonable that a new CBA would only remove the QO and compensation draft picks beginning with the 2027/28 offseason.

 

Does anyone really believe the Twins would offer Jeffers 23 million and risk him taking it?

[AceWrigley]

17 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you are traded the qualifying offer can’t be used.  Hence why it’s in Jeffers best interest to be traded. 

This. Trading Jeffers now is actually doing him a solid, optimizes him as an asset, and I don't think it ruins our clubhouse though it does reduce our offense some. Alex Jackson probably wont hit .323 the rest of the way but should keep a positive WAR. Not sure who the 3rd catcher will be then (Banuelos?) unless we acquire one before the trade deadline.

[Parfigliano]

58 minutes ago, saviking said:

Does anyone really believe the Twins would offer Jeffers 23 million and risk him taking it?

I do not.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

Does anyone really believe the Twins would offer Jeffers 23 million and risk him taking it?

 

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I do not.

I believe this is the main reason why there is so much disagreement about what to do with Jeffers at the deadline.

I don't want to trade him because I view Jeffers being on the Twins in 2027 via the QO process as a very possible scenario. I want that to happen because I want players on this team that are in the top quartile of their position in MLB. I don't care if it's a 1 year overpay. I want those players on my team because those are one of the key types of players that create playoff teams. 

You both view Jeffers on a QO in 2027 as a complete fairy tale. Maybe you're right. But maybe I am. If you forced yourselves to believe that we could have Jeffers in 2027 at $23M, would you still want to trade him this week?