The Twins Can't Wait Any Longer to Bring Back Royce Lewis

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, greglw333 said:

.163 vs .229 says he can do worse.

What does that have to do with his defense? Royce has a lot more range than Josh Bell.

This team has been using Josh Bell and Orlando Arcia regularly at first base. I would rather they used Royce Lewis there instead of those two guys.

Sometimes I think the Venn Diagram between “call up Kyler Fedko, he’s mashing” and “keep Royce in AAA, he isn’t making adjustments” is a circle.

It does counter the “send him to AAA for a reset” argument. The pitching isn’t good enough in AAA to help players work on their weaknesses.

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, Bracky said:

Until Lewis was to work more at 1B at AAA, I trust Clemens WAY more defensively in that role currently. 

I get it, the consistent "Clemens shouldn't even be on the roster" or "Clemens is a terrible bench player on all other teams" messages from this board. Yes, the Twins have roster construction issues. Yes, Clemens is NOT a star MLB player. But in terms of what the Twins have right now, he is nowhere near the top of my list of our problems in terms of contributing players. 

Also with what I saw from Lewis before going to AAA, I still don't trust his bat against MLB level pitching yet.

I didn't say Clemens shouldn't be on the roster.  But he is not an everyday player.  So while he is not near the top of the list of problems, he is a symptom of the issue with this roster.  We are insisting on playing 30 somethings with no future on the team instead of upgrading their positions either with players from St. Paul or outside of the organization.  Clemens should be a bench utility player playing 2 or 3 days a week.  Hitting him in the middle of the order is not going to lead to consistent winning.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

This is where it's complicated for Royce Lewis. You can't expect him to not take advantage of AAA pitchers and club homers when the opportunity arises. Is his walk rate down at AAA? Sure, but he's also hitting .357. When players on on a hot streak like that they're walk rates are always going to be lower because they're hitting everything and don't have to grind out as many walks. (The OBP is .429, so it's not like he's just swinging at everything)

Right now, his approach is working. He's not just hitting AAA pitching, he's utterly destroying it. How to you tell a guy to "go the other way" more when he's crushing it? (Pulling the ball isn't an inherent evil either; ask David Ortiz) He can be pull-happy if his bat speed is letting him catch up to fastballs and he can lay off the breaking stuff away...so is he showing enough of that?

Notably, Royce is a confidence player. He was not swinging with any confidence when he got sent down, and he was just guessing at pitches. His confidence has got to be jumping way back up again, which you'd think would be a good think. It does sound like some people around here don't want that for Royce and think he needs to be broken and humbled before he's allowed back up to MLB, if he ever is. (I'd say there are some people who don't want him around at all ever again; as much as there are supposed homers who are back on the bandwagon there seem to be haters who have given up on Royce too and even successes in AAA will be discounted...)

David Ortiz went to the opposite field 24.1% of the time for his career. Royce's highest season ever going oppo in the majors was 2023 when it was 24.7%. He was 17% in his 3 other seasons before this year when it's 14.7%. Ortiz dropped below 20% 1 time, and that was his last year in baseball. Royce's, by far, best season in the majors? 2023. When he was using the opposite field just 25% of the time. He needs to get up to 20% at least. He's at 11% in the minors. His approach is broken.

There is nothing in his approach that shows he's changed anything. The fact that he does seem to rely so much on his confidence being high is all the more reason to keep him down until he truly fixes things. What happens if you call him up on Monday when he hasn't changed the approach we know doesn't work in the majors and he falls flat on his face again? What's that do to his confidence? You quite possibly lose him forever if that's how things go. He needs to make real changes. He hasn't. His approach doesn't work in the majors because the pitchers are better. He needs to change his approach. If the Twins coaches can't convince him to then it's time to do everybody a favor and move him to give him a chance to succeed elsewhere and free the Twins from the situation.

[Blyleven2011]

It's important that Lewis gets his mechanics right , hitting homeruns is nice but that is not what he was sent to AAA to work on ...

He has to go back to hitting to all fields , lots of adjustments to be made on his offense ( recognition of pitches )and just because he's hitting homeruns in AAA doesn't mean he is ready to comeback  ...

Learning a new position , lewis is in AAA to stay till the allstar break at the earliest ....

[thelanges5]

I agree with a lot of the comments already posted on here. Lewis has looked better in the box, more athletic, and less dancing around. Let him keep working on that while he learns a new defensive position. Where can he best help that atrocious infield defense?

[1985Fan]

Good grief! Give him some more time to prove this streak is for real before even considering promotion. How many AAA teams and pitchers has he even played against? Remember that AAA series are SIX games. He’s probably faced only 2-3 teams so far. I don’t know who the “elite” AAA teams are, but wait until he’s faced those teams/pitchers before even considering a promotion. 
He also needs time to show he can play at least average defense at new positions to prove he won’t be a liability in the field. I don’t trust that he’s fixed his plate approach yet, so let him continue to hit for a while. As previous posters stated, promote Fedko and others that have sustained offense at AAA for a longer period of time. Sabato hit 3 homers in one game against LV, I think five in the series. So what, that didn’t get him a promotion either. 

[miller761]

There is room for both Lewis and Clemens in the lineup. Clemens can play right field. Martin is playing too much and has been exposed. Same for Gray and Kriedler. Outman and Arcia should go and Fedko and Royce should be up. The direction of our season will be decided in the next 2 weeks. We have to improve our run scoring.

[greglw333]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

What does that have to do with his defense? Royce has a lot more range than Josh Bell.

This team has been using Josh Bell and Orlando Arcia regularly at first base. I would rather they used Royce Lewis there instead of those two guys.

Sometimes I think the Venn Diagram between “call up Kyler Fedko, he’s mashing” and “keep Royce in AAA, he isn’t making adjustments” is a circle.

It does counter the “send him to AAA for a reset” argument. The pitching isn’t good enough in AAA to help players work on their weaknesses.

"have to do with  his defense". Nothing really but the .163 renders his defense moot. Plus Clemens has been playing a lot more 1B than Bell and at a Gold Glove level. I just am skeptical that the organization has torn down a massively failed approach at the plate and swing and built in back up more in the mold of Lyman Bostock or even what it looks like Walker Jenkins is heading toward.

As the hitting legend, Paul Molitor said on last night’s broadcast, struggling hitters need to focus first on contact, using the whole field and getting base hits, then gradually the power will come.

1B is a problem whether its Bell or Lewis until and unless Lewis really changes his whole approach.

Clemens is acceptable, maybe better than acceptable, but .220s and .230s batting averages don’t usually do it for me. I do like Clemens and root really hard for him but he’s so streaky. What more does Sabato need to do to get a chance? .966 OPS for Sabato.  

I could also see Mendez coming up and cycling through LF, DH and eventually some 1B and maybe slide Larnach to RF and DH some days until Martin gets back on track. Less AB for Bell.

And Culpepper at .266, but much higher recently, w .372 OBP, .858 OPS, 13 HR,  13/14 SB and very good defense from what I’ve gathered watching/listening to some Saints games and reading about his defense too, combined with Mendez could inject  the offense that Bell, Caratini aren’t providing. And the overall extra offense the team needs.

[Tallguy80]

Of course they can leave him at AAA, they have leaving higher upside players down in the minors all year, so why would they change now? Sure there’s cagey 30 year old minor leaguer that doesn’t f s as core into the long term plans they could call up

[Rosterman]

Then we should be buying light rail tickets for Culpepper replacing everyone at shortstop, Fedko learning Clemens' job, and Mendez taking the outfield corner and moving Martin to Outman's position, as well as Sabato playing 1st base instead of Bell... while Lewis searches for a spot on the field! Lewis as DH?

[Exiled in Illinois]

I'd be surprised to see him in ML before the all star break.  Looks like the Twins sent him down for not only a mental reset and to fix his hitting issues, but to learn new position.  I hope that position is 1st base, it is the organization's most glaring positional need.  But whatever the new position is, learning it will take time, and that still assumes his mental and hitting issues get fixed too.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What does that have to do with his defense? Royce has a lot more range than Josh Bell.

This team has been using Josh Bell and Orlando Arcia regularly at first base. I would rather they used Royce Lewis there instead of those two guys.

Sometimes I think the Venn Diagram between “call up Kyler Fedko, he’s mashing” and “keep Royce in AAA, he isn’t making adjustments” is a circle.

It does counter the “send him to AAA for a reset” argument. The pitching isn’t good enough in AAA to help players work on their weaknesses.

The weaknesses Royce needs to work on are absolutely things that can be worked on in AAA. Going the other way and laying off pitches out of the zone are things he can work on against AAA pitching. That's an approach and mentality thing. It's actually what the minors are best built for. It's arguably the most important part of minor league coaching staff's jobs. "This is working here, but it won't work when you get to the next level or 2" is the story coaches have to sell to just about every prospect who walks in their clubhouse.

It's why Kyler Fedko isn't in the majors. It's why McCrusher was never used even when he was called up. It's why Sabato is never really going to get a shot. It's why guy after guy is kept in the minors. This is what the minors are for and what the front office and coaches get paid for. They absolutely will never get it completely correct, but they need to be pretty good at knowing what works in the majors and whether or not a guy is truly doing that in the minors. Royce can adjust his approach against AAA pitching. He just doesn't look like he has any intention of doing that. And, yes, that's a very real problem.

[Riverbrian]

I'm content to wait for a necessity (injury) to bring him back. We don't have decent minor league depth on the dirt. Royce is probably it. 

I don't expect the Twins front office to just cut or send down Kriedler, Gray or Arcia to make room for Lewis because we don't have major league ready AAA depth at 2B, 3B, SS or 1B.

I don't expect a hot streak from Lewis to cause a 26 man change to make room for him. I think this is an opportunity to get Lewis some work on the right side of the infield so he can slide into whatever hole opens up when an injury occurs and injury is going to occur at some point.

Because we don't have anybody else when that injury occurs. Schobel? Ross? Sabato maybe if he keeps hitting the ball... Otherwise... just look at the options. It's Lewis... he's the next man up. We can allow Lewis to work on things until we need the next man and that time is coming fast. Bank on it.  

Yeah... Culpepper. I know... Culpepper. He doesn't need to added to the 40 man roster until Dec 27. We have a potential lockout in 2027 that could burn his valuable service time while he is on the 40 man playing golf waiting for baseball and the players union to allow him to play.   

Lewis is the next man up. If Keaschall gets hurt, If Bell gets hurt, If Clemens gets hurt, If Kreidler gets hurt, If Lee gets hurt, If Gray gets hurt, If Arcia gets hurt. He's the next man up for the entire infield. Wherever that injury occurs that makes him necessary.

Brooks Lee is playing 3B now. Lewis has to get defensively prepared for any possibility so he gets that phone call that's coming. 

[Twins GFP]

The phrase everyone is circling around in their comments to this article is:

Over-reaction anyone?

Sure, he has been hot since his demotion, but so what? Mickey Gasper is a AAA legend. MLB? Not so much.

What adjustments has he made at the plate? While at least showing some semblance of positional flexibility, is he actually putting in hard time in practice? How has his attitude been? It didn't sound real hot when he was sent down. Lewis could hit .500 in AAA, but unless he is meeting the criteria set forth by the organization to improve on the field and at the plate, the only way he sees his way back to the big club is a rash of injuries. It is hard to see any scenario where he is promoted before the all-star break.

[Linus]

The confidence factor is overrated. Everyone, including Royce, knows that true confidence is gained by big league success not by mashing AAA pitching. It’s great that he is clubbing some homers but that “confidence” will go away in a hurry when big league pitchers start eating away at weaknesses he hasn’t fixed. 

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, miller761 said:

There is room for both Lewis and Clemens in the lineup. Clemens can play right field. Martin is playing too much and has been exposed. Same for Gray and Kriedler. Outman and Arcia should go and Fedko and Royce should be up. The direction of our season will be decided in the next 2 weeks. We have to improve our run scoring.

Their run scoring is just fine. They scored 6 runs last night. They’re at 4.6 runs per game, the same as Tampa Bay. The offense took a hit when Jeffers was hurt but it is still productive.

The defense is giving up an extra run every game compared to an average defense. Fix that instead.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

This is where it's complicated for Royce Lewis. You can't expect him to not take advantage of AAA pitchers and club homers when the opportunity arises. Is his walk rate down at AAA? Sure, but he's also hitting .357. When players on on a hot streak like that they're walk rates are always going to be lower because they're hitting everything and don't have to grind out as many walks. (The OBP is .429, so it's not like he's just swinging at everything)

Right now, his approach is working. He's not just hitting AAA pitching, he's utterly destroying it. How to you tell a guy to "go the other way" more when he's crushing it? (Pulling the ball isn't an inherent evil either; ask David Ortiz) He can be pull-happy if his bat speed is letting him catch up to fastballs and he can lay off the breaking stuff away...so is he showing enough of that?

Notably, Royce is a confidence player. He was not swinging with any confidence when he got sent down, and he was just guessing at pitches. His confidence has got to be jumping way back up again, which you'd think would be a good think. It does sound like some people around here don't want that for Royce and think he needs to be broken and humbled before he's allowed back up to MLB, if he ever is. (I'd say there are some people who don't want him around at all ever again; as much as there are supposed homers who are back on the bandwagon there seem to be haters who have given up on Royce too and even successes in AAA will be discounted...)

There are some very positive indicators in results the past couple of games. I care more about the strike out rate than the walk rate at AAA, and Lewis had a few games in a row where he was just absolutely hacking away. I reviewed the pitch by pitch results from game logs and it wasn't just the results.

The plate approach needs to be there because the results will not come at the MLB level. I believe Lewis can be an All Star, but he absolutely will not be an All Star if he doesn't take what pitchers give him instead of trying to force it. Good approach first. Then refine, and adapt, and refine. The approach comes first.

[DJL44]

53 minutes ago, greglw333 said:

. What more does Sabato need to do to get a chance? .966 OPS for Sabato.  

Royce is so much better at baseball than Sabato it is ridiculous.

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Sure, he has been hot since his demotion, but so what? Mickey Gasper is a AAA legend. MLB? Not so much.

Off topic so I apologize. 

However... the mention of Gasper is an opportunity to point out that Mickey is currently the primary catching option in Boston despite the presence of two other catchers on the 26 man roster. 

In the past 9 games... Gasper has caught 5 of them. Narvaez 3 and Wong 1.

Gasper appears to be the guy behind the plate against right handed pitching. How long will that last... I have no idea but after 19 Games... 65 Plate Appearances. Mickey has an OBP of .375 and .414 slug.

His OPS is currently 2nd on the Red Sox. Small Sample obviously but the sample is growing and there he is behind Contreras and ahead of Abreu and Duran and Roman Anthony and Story and... and... and... and. 

Not saying I wish Gasper was here but I am saying... he's getting opportunity and so far... doing something with it. 

And... one more thing. Jovani Moran. The Bullpen guy we traded for Gasper. He has 30 innings tossed so far out of the Red Sox bullpen. His WHIP 0.87 with 32 Punch outs. 

The Red Sox have officially won the Gasper trade. 

 

 

 

[Maybe Next Year]

Bring him up and DFA Outman. Easy decision.

[S Bart]

So....Bell as a DH...he is batting around .198...he is not great with his defense and is offense is horrible. They might as well place Outman as the DH. 

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They need to trade him if they're trying to make him a 1B. 

Or get him up so teams can view him as one, then trade. We're not winning anything but we can do marketing..

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, Maybe Next Year said:

Bring him up and DFA Outman. Easy decision.

I like it but without Outman our Outfield defense isn't much better than the IF.

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Their run scoring is just fine. They scored 6 runs last night. They’re at 4.6 runs per game, the same as Tampa Bay. The offense took a hit when Jeffers was hurt but it is still productive.

The defense is giving up an extra run every game compared to an average defense. Fix that instead.

Martin, Outman and Arcia do provide something Larnach, Keaschall and Gray do not. I'll leave it here for someone to guess.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Martin, Outman and Arcia do provide something Larnach, Keaschall and Gray do not. I'll leave it here for someone to guess.

Arcia does not play good defense. He’s an old, slow player. His sprint speed is worse than Josh Bell.

[jkcarew]

Strange as it sounds, I agree with those that say he hasn’t made any adjustments. If you watch him, he’s trying to pull everything, taking advantage of AAA pitching and small ballparks by hitting home runs and doubles…exclusively pull, exclusively pitches middle-in. The pitches major league pitchers refuse to give him.

Still, bring him up. If nothing else, he may have gained some confidence, and will succeed more often when he does get the pitch he’s looking for. My long-term expectations remain severely muted until I see a change in approach. Maybe even more failure is required for him to revert to what we saw his first couple years. And this season would be the year to tolerate that process.

[GNess]

Here are a few key considerations:

What did the FO tell Lewis when they sent him down? What did they want him to improve/prove?

If a player is going to be something of a defensive liability which most assume Lewis would be for the short/medium term at 1B given his lack of experience - he has to hit and produce at the plate! Is he more ready tø ∂ø so after a handful of games at St Paul?

The outcome of the Lewis saga will have a serious impact on the Twins.. He is now teetering on the verge of being a bust. 

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What adjustments has he made?

"the Twins needed to know that the changes were real."

What changes were made and why should the Twins believe they're real? There was never any doubt Royce Lewis is too good for AAA pitching. Him destroying AAA pitching doesn't prove he's made any adjustments or changes. You don't present any information on what changes or adjustments were made or why anyone should believe they're "real." 

Royce's walk rate is 5.2% in AAA compared to the 10.1% he had in the majors this year. He hasn't started laying off pitches and taking good at bats. His oppo% is down to 11.9% in AAA compared to the 14.7% he had in the majors this year. He hasn't started going the other way with pitches. His swing percentage overall has gone up to 51% from the 48.6% it was in the bigs. His O-Swing% (out of zone pitches he swings at) has gone up an insignificant amount from 32.8 to 33%.  Again, he hasn't stopped chasing pitches. He's simply making more, and better, contact against inferior pitching.

So, I ask again, what adjustments has he made and why should the Twins think they're real? Because it's pretty easy to look at his swing decision and approach numbers and see he hasn't changed anything. He's simply destroying inferior pitching. Why should we believe he's "fixed" and he wouldn't continue to struggle with his swing at everything, pull everything approach in the majors again when he hasn't changed that approach one bit? 

This and the post below it are really good.  Gives a lot to think about in terms of the underlying stats.  The only thing I'd counter with, is confidence matters too.  I know that can't be measured, but Royce and MW 'seem' to be fragile guys where a little success (or failure) can matter.  Either with coming back up, or as a marketable trade asset, sadly, this may be the peak.  Only concern would be leaving them at AAA until they fail, then have little value for us, or others.  But again, you guys laid this argument out in an insightful way I would not have thought to do.  Thanks!

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I think it is important to note that they worked on his swing and mechanics in the box first.  They are just now giving him some position work at 2B and 1B.  He has exactly played 1 game at second and 1 game at first this week.  He will need some more time to get used to the new position(s) before he is called back up to the majors.  I can already picture the game thread roasting him on his poor defense when he can't make a scoop at first or when he misses a ball up the middle at second, regardless of whether he will hit like he currently is in St Paul.

How many plays does he get at second in a game? Does it really matter? How many scoops a game, likely less than one. Who cares what the game thread says? 

All that aside, I'm not sure what he can learn in AAA hitting at this point.. so it's kind of up to confidence in him after lots of practice at positions..I have no idea what this FO will wait for, bit given their decision making, I'm confident it will be wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

David Ortiz went to the opposite field 24.1% of the time for his career. Royce's highest season ever going oppo in the majors was 2023 when it was 24.7%. He was 17% in his 3 other seasons before this year when it's 14.7%. Ortiz dropped below 20% 1 time, and that was his last year in baseball. Royce's, by far, best season in the majors? 2023. When he was using the opposite field just 25% of the time. He needs to get up to 20% at least. He's at 11% in the minors. His approach is broken.

There is nothing in his approach that shows he's changed anything. The fact that he does seem to rely so much on his confidence being high is all the more reason to keep him down until he truly fixes things. What happens if you call him up on Monday when he hasn't changed the approach we know doesn't work in the majors and he falls flat on his face again? What's that do to his confidence? You quite possibly lose him forever if that's how things go. He needs to make real changes. He hasn't. His approach doesn't work in the majors because the pitchers are better. He needs to change his approach. If the Twins coaches can't convince him to then it's time to do everybody a favor and move him to give him a chance to succeed elsewhere and free the Twins from the situation.

So if he gets middle in pitches, should be take them and wait for one he should drive the other way? I'm not sure what he can do hitting wise at this point in AAA, the pitchers just aren't good enough.