Twins Ace Pablo López Facing "Strong Likelihood" of Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

[USAFChief]

33 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not talking about the specific random numbers thrown out. It's the implication that youth is bad and vet is good or at least average that I'm not so sure about. 

You know who the oldest team in MLB was in 2025?

The LA Dodgers.

 

[LastOnePicked]

5 hours ago, CRF said:

Why am I not surprised by this? 

Because there's nothing whatsoever surprising about it. The only people surprised work for or own the Twins.

[NJM]

I hate it here.....

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

God willing, you have many seasons left to enjoy. I would so much rather see this team actually build a first-class farm system and be a legitimate contender in 2028-30 than to be a perennial AL Central nibbler. 

Nothing is as enjoyable as true playoff run. Nothing.

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

God willing, you have many seasons left to enjoy. 

Geez and rice I hope you're correct!

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The idea that “if we trade everyone and just bottom out now, we’ll be good in two or three years” is wishful thinking at best, and ridiculous at worst.

Of course. This approach has never worked before. Except for the Rays, Tigers, Astros, Braves, Cubs, Rangers. Who am I missing? Maybe the Royals and Orioles will rejoin that group this year.

The Twins need a superior player scouting and development system. They don't have that right now. The only other pathway to success is obtaining top-tier players. They won't sign them. So their only hope for the foreseeable future is through trades and drafts. 

No one has to like it, but lumps are necessary for growth. It's no sure path, but it's far better than being a nothing mid-to-low tier team year after year after year.

[LastOnePicked]

38 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

This is one of the biggest differences between big and small market teams.  A team with a $100M payroll needs to have nearly everything go right from a performance and injury perspective in order to be successful.

Correct. This is why teams like the Twins have to be smarter and make hard decisions when those decisions need to be made. This is not a serious team. Disasters like this are the result.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You know who the oldest team in MLB was in 2025?

The LA Dodgers.

 

I did know that. I also know that Cleveland is amongst the youngest. 

It's really not that simple though. 

The Dodgers also spent a lot of money. Ohtani, Freeman, Snell, Kershaw, Glasnow, Muncy and Teoscar are old players by most definitions and expensive to boot. They did a decent job and worth the cash. 

However, it could also be argued that the Dodgers also wasted 60 to 100 million (close to what low payroll teams spend in total) on players like Conforto, Scott, Edman, Yates, Treinen, Kike among others. 

The Twins can't afford Freeman and they certainly can't afford failing with a Conforto who is about all they can afford. 

There is no getting around it.... youth will have to be served.

Thankfully, there are teams providing a road map to being successful with youth.  

[Chembry]

Bad news all around...

I don't know if many of you heard or saw quotes from Tom Pohlad after his media scrum.

Gleeman and the Geek said on their podcast that the Twins made a competitive offer to Framber Valdez.  So much so that apparently the Twins thought they had a ~20-30% chance to land him.  In the media scrum, someone asked (I am paraphrasing a bit) "Since they made a competitive offer to Valdez, does that mean they would be willing to take on a larger contract through trade?"  Tom's answer was "100%, 100%"

I am not advocating that the Twins go out an make a trade or sign a FA, but seems like the Twins are still looking to make a move.  Falvey wasn't willing to move prospects, but maybe Zoll will.  

As others mentioned, the only free agents available that are somewhat worthwhile are Littell or Giolito.

Some potential trade candidates (names I have seen listed as candidates):

Luis Severino (2yr/$47M remaining), Mitch Keller (3yr/$55.7M remaining), Kodai Senga (2yr/$30M, $15M club option for '28), Brady Singer (1yr/$12.75M remaining), Kyle Freeland (1yr/$16M, $17M player option for '27 if reaches 170 IP in 2026), Sandy Alcantra (1yr/$17.3M, $21M club option for '27 with $2M buyout), Eury Perez (arbitration eligible through 2029), Drew Rasmussen (1yr/$5.75M, $8M club option for 2027 with $500K buyout, 2026 contract includes performance incentives of up to an additional $1.5M for games started), Kris Bubic (1yr/$6.15M)

The cost to get some of those named above would be extraordinarily high, but others may not cost that much in prospect capital. None of them make up for the loss of Lopez. 

Again, I am not advocating for a trade or signing, but if the Twins decide to make a move, there are options.     

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I must say that I feel terrible for Pablo. I imagine he is worried about the political situation in his native country of Venezuela. I feel sure he has family and friends living  there. And now this. Mathew mentioned "Jobe's Harvest", referring to Dr. Jobe of TJ surgery fame. However another man named "Job" also was tested by misfortunes in his life, which were much worse than what Pablo is experiencing. Hopefully Pablo Lopez will be able to remain grateful for what he does have, even in the midst of his time of disappointment and anxiety. Hang in there Pablo.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

43 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Of course. This approach has never worked before. Except for the Rays, Tigers, Astros, Braves, Cubs, Rangers. Who am I missing? Maybe the Royals and Orioles will rejoin that group this year.

The Twins need a superior player scouting and development system. They don't have that right now. The only other pathway to success is obtaining top-tier players. They won't sign them. So their only hope for the foreseeable future is through trades and drafts. 

No one has to like it, but lumps are necessary for growth. It's no sure path, but it's far better than being a nothing mid-to-low tier team year after year after year.

I’m glad you’re that confident.  I’m not.  How’s that working for the White Sox?  The list is substantially longer of teams that haven’t done it that way.  Combine that with the fact that not all of those teams have been that successful and the fact that the lay of the land has changed with regard to the draft and the introduction of a lottery system and it would seem even less likely that lightning will strike.  You are welcome to have your own opinion about that but to suggest that it’s the only path to success requires more disconnect than I’m willing to entertain. 

[LastOnePicked]

13 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You are welcome to have your own opinion about that but to suggest that it’s the only path to success requires more disconnect than I’m willing to entertain. 

No worries. Do you see a viable alternative pathway to a AL championship run?

[howeda7]

2 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

No worries. Do you see a viable alternative pathway to a AL championship run?

New revenue/ownership that allows the Twins to return payrolls to the $150-$160 million range and a new CBA that makes teams in that range competitive and ends $450 million payrolls at the top.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m glad you’re that confident.  I’m not.  How’s that working for the White Sox?  The list is substantially longer of teams that haven’t done it that way.  Combine that with the fact that not all of those teams have been that successful and the fact that the lay of the land has changed with regard to the draft and the introduction of a lottery system and it would seem even less likely that lightning will strike.  You are welcome to have your own opinion about that but to suggest that it’s the only path to success requires more disconnect than I’m willing to entertain. 

Were you expecting a rebuild to work every time?   It makes little sense to look at it this way other than to confirm it's not guaranteed success which we all know.  The questions we should ask are ...

1.  What practices have been successful for teams with modest revenue?   

2.  How much have players acquired as prospects contributed to low revenue playoff teams.

3.  What have been the relative contributions of established players acquired in trade for prospects.

The answers to these questions quite clearly illustrate the importance of low revenue teams acquiring prospects whenever they are in a down cycle.

[Irishman]

Twins manager Derek Shelton and pitching coach should be fired. 
 

I am done with Minnesota Twins.    Twins will lose more than 100 games this season.    

[Rod Carews Birthday]

38 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Were you expecting a rebuild to work every time?   It makes little sense to look at it this way other than to confirm it's not guaranteed success which we all know.  The questions we should ask are ...

1.  What practices have been successful for teams with modest revenue?   

2.  How much have players acquired as prospects contributed to low revenue playoff teams.

3.  What have been the relative contributions of established players acquired in trade for prospects.

The answers to these questions quite clearly illustrate the importance of low revenue teams acquiring prospects whenever they are in a down cycle.

No.  I wasn't.  As I stated earlier, I'm a fan of competitive (on a game by game and seasonal basis) baseball.  I don't want to trade a couple of years of horrific baseball for a chance to be about as good as we are now, only with new players.  I don't think that it is impossible that a full tear down and rebuild could work, but I'm far less confident about it than those who regularly tout it as the golden ticket.  

If there were a clear answer, all teams would be doing the same thing, which they are not.  It's also one of the things that makes baseball interesting and fun to watch.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

No worries. Do you see a viable alternative pathway to a AL championship run?

1 hour ago, howeda7 said:

New revenue/ownership that allows the Twins to return payrolls to the $150-$160 million range and a new CBA that makes teams in that range competitive and ends $450 million payrolls at the top.

I agree with this answer as an excellent long term plan.  On the field, it will take veteran players playing to their ability and young players taking that next step.  That's really what it takes for all teams to be successful, but the mid-market teams have less room for error when making those decisions.  

When I look back at the Twins Championship teams of 1987 and 1991, I don't see teams that were amazing juggernauts.  I also don't see teams whose talent level made them predestined to win the WS.  They had some veterans and a couple of young guys whose seasons came together in just the right way to be successful.  It has happened before and will happen again.  A 162 game season has a way of making that work. 

[mark sills]

I'm guessing with the insurance money we should sign a better shortstop

[DocBauer]

Heartbroken for Pablo. He was really looking forward to pitching for his native country in the Classic and working with Santana.

Heartbroken for the Twins, and us as fans.

Pablo had a TJ surgery when he was 19yo. So after roughly 12 years of wear and tear on that replacement ligament, it's probably not totally unexpected it gave out. You don't want it to happen, and you hope it doesn't happen. But I do think it's a little speculative to say an injury last season, or ramping up a little early for the Classic caused this injury. It's possible it would have happened in April, if not now, were that the case.

Strictly from a baseball perspective, with all due respect to the young arms...and I'm a prospect loving guy...TP and Zoll had discussed adding Valdez or possibly Peralta? I can't recall at the moment...but despite my initial skepticism, reports are they were fairly serious about Valdez. Take it as you will. But it APPEARS TP was actually serious about making a major ADD to the team to change the complexion of 2026.

Do they pivot and possibly sign someone like Giolito now, as has been broached? Anyone is NO replacement for Lopez directly! And I'm as excited as anyone to see the younger arms hopefully take a step forward in 2026. But the team WILL need 7-8 SP at some point this season. And they're down a major arm right now. Perhaps adding another arm...that might prove tradeable at the deadline...the worst move they could make? I'd say no. 

Purely from a baseball perspective, if the Twins want to attempt W-L relevance in 2026, I think a veteran addition could make a lot more sense. One way or another, there's going to be opportunity for the young arms to all get shots in 2026. 

But this really, really sucks on so mamy levels.

[LastOnePicked]

3 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

despite my initial skepticism, reports are they were fairly serious about Valdez. Take it as you will.

One of my least favorite features of Twins baseball over the last 20+ years has been our collective praise of the FO/ownership for just being "in on" the rumors for a big name player. I would love to let that end once and for all. 

In baseball, you either land a player or you don't. No need to issue participation trophies.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Irishman said:

Twins manager Derek Shelton and pitching coach should be fired. 

Yeah, he really shouldn't have started Spring Training with that "First Annual Twins Pitchers Arm Wrestling Tournament." Bad idea in hindsight.

C'mon, I think we can give Shelton a pass on this particular tragedy.

[Chembry]

16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Heartbroken for Pablo. He was really looking forward to pitching for his native country in the Classic and working with Santana.

Heartbroken for the Twins, and us as fans.

Pablo had a TJ surgery when he was 19yo. So after roughly 12 years of wear and tear on that replacement ligament, it's probably not totally unexpected it gave out. You don't want it to happen, and you hope it doesn't happen. But I do think it's a little speculative to say an injury last season, or ramping up a little early for the Classic caused this injury. It's possible it would have happened in April, if not now, were that the case.

Strictly from a baseball perspective, with all due respect to the young arms...and I'm a prospect loving guy...TP and Zoll had discussed adding Valdez or possibly Peralta? I can't recall at the moment...but despite my initial skepticism, reports are they were fairly serious about Valdez. Take it as you will. But it APPEARS TP was actually serious about making a major ADD to the team to change the complexion of 2026.

Do they pivot and possibly sign someone like Giolito now, as has been broached? Anyone is NO replacement for Lopez directly! And I'm as excited as anyone to see the younger arms hopefully take a step forward in 2026. But the team WILL need 7-8 SP at some point this season. And they're down a major arm right now. Perhaps adding another arm...that might prove tradeable at the deadline...the worst move they could make? I'd say no. 

Purely from a baseball perspective, if the Twins want to attempt W-L relevance in 2026, I think a veteran addition could make a lot more sense. One way or another, there's going to be opportunity for the young arms to all get shots in 2026. 

But this really, really sucks on so mamy levels.

It’s pure speculation and blatantly untrue that any of last years injuries were a precursor to the UCL tear.  Gleeman reiterated on his podcast that Lopez had a full MRI after the forearm injury.  That MRI showed no tear in his UCL.  This is a new injury.

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at the end of that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

In general I agree, but this year's fate was decided back on July 31, 2025 when they gutted the bullpen. But instead of taking our medicine and finish out the rebuild, Tommy boy reversed course when it makes zero sense to do so. This isn't just a Twins thing, it's a disease spread throughout Minnesota sports. The Vikings rattle off 5 meaningless wins when they were eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving to finish 9-8. The Wild spent over a decade chasing mediocrity and 1st round playoff exits. 

[KBJ1]

Should have sold high. Now every game will be turned over to a bad bullpen down 6 runs.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, mark sills said:

I'm guessing with the insurance money we should sign a better shortstop

Highly doubtful there's any insurance. 

But let's say there is. Which  SS you gonna sign?

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

When I look back at the Twins Championship teams of 1987 and 1991, I don't see teams that were amazing juggernauts.

Those teams had multiple Twins and MLB Hall of Famers. Do you remember how they got several of those players? High draft picks from being terrible in the early 80s.

Draft high in the down years, develop well every year, sign well when your roster congeals. There's no other magic formula for mid-market success.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

New revenue/ownership that allows the Twins to return payrolls to the $150-$160 million range

But they had payrolls in that range and didn't get very far. Also, nothing is stopping Tom Pohlad from having a payroll in that range right now.

I do think MLB has a competitive disadvantage problem, but smart mid teams are still finding ways to win without waiting for bailouts from the elite revenue teams.

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Of course. This approach has never worked before. Except for the Rays, Tigers, Astros, Braves, Cubs, Rangers. Who am I missing? Maybe the Royals and Orioles will rejoin that group this year.

The Twins need a superior player scouting and development system. They don't have that right now. The only other pathway to success is obtaining top-tier players. They won't sign them. So their only hope for the foreseeable future is through trades and drafts. 

No one has to like it, but lumps are necessary for growth. It's no sure path, but it's far better than being a nothing mid-to-low tier team year after year after year.

All these past can't-miss minor leaguers, who form the core of the current team, missed.

But these next ones! Can't miss!!

[Fatbat]

This sucks for Pablo but not the Twins. We all expected a very tough long season and this simply gives more guys an opportunity. One or two guys will inevitably rise to the occasion and next season we will have less questions going into 2027…. If there isn’t a lockout. Injuries are part of the game. Get over it.

[Fatbat]

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

In general I agree, but this year's fate was decided back on July 31, 2025 when they gutted the bullpen. But instead of taking our medicine and finish out the rebuild, Tommy boy reversed course when it makes zero sense to do so. This isn't just a Twins thing, it's a disease spread throughout Minnesota sports. The Vikings rattle off 5 meaningless wins when they were eliminated from the playoffs before Thanksgiving to finish 9-8. The Wild spent over a decade chasing mediocrity and 1st round playoff exits. 

The Timberwolves, Vikes and Wild have a GM/ownership that go all in when its go time. It hasn’t worked out yet but at least they try.