Twins Expected to Land Top International Prospect in January

[Jamie Cameron]

The new international signing period opens on January 15th. As a smaller market team, the Twins are one of a handful of organizations with an upper echelon bonus pool. They, along with seven other teams, have $7,357,100 to spend, the second highest pool available to teams.

This year, the Twins class is headlined by Enmanuel Merlo, a Venezuelan shortstop who turned 17 in November. Merlo is slated to receive the 29th largest bonus of any international prospect, per Baseball America. His signing bonus is expected to be ~$1.5 million. Merlo is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 34th best prospect in the 2026 class.

Listed at 6'1, 190 pounds, Merlo is a switch hitter with a wiry frame. He's currently better from the left side and has a well rounded offensive profile. Merlo consistently produced above average exit velocities relative to his peers, while also being praised for controlling the strike zone effectively and taking free passes when available. 

Despite being an average runner, Merlo is aggressive on the base paths and his running may become an asset in his game as he develops his reads. He has an above average arm and a smooth first step at shortstop. While he may not stick there permanently, he certainly has the requisite skills to stick in the dirt as a professional.

We'll have more details on the Twins forthcoming international crop at Twins Daily in the coming weeks.

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[bunsen82]

So we have used approximately $2 million of our allotment of $7.35 million.   

We have 

#34 Enmanuel Marlo  - $1.5 million approximate

Angel Ozuna - $500k

It says he is the headliner of the Twins signing.   Usually we get at least 1 top 20 prospect.  Would be odd with a top 8 international pool amount we end up with the #34 prospect as our headliner.   Even still these are all lottery tickets at this point.  You don't know which one will hit.  

[EGFTShaw]

Nit: Twins to sign A top international prospect
Not: Twins to sign top international prospect

Two completely different meanings.

[bean5302]

6'1" and 190lbs is not remotely wiry. That's final, full adult, MLB starting shortstop size. Miguel Sano was 6'3" and 190lbs when he was signed back in 2009.

It's tough to gauge how likely a player is to stick at a premium position until after they get a couple years into their international signing.

[NYCTK]

"Twins Expected to Land Top International Prospect in January"

"Merlo is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 34th-best prospect in the 2026 class."

Come on man. I know we live in a post-truth world now, but this is egregious enough of a stretch to be called a lie. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'll concur with others, #34 is not even close to being Top. Compare this to the regular MLB draft, would you call drafting in the 34th spot top? The #34 guy is not even close to the top 5 guys in potential to start out with. And that's not saying that the lower guys won't exceed the top guys. They have and still can.

[bunsen82]

9 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'll concur with others, #34 is not even close to being Top. Compare this to the regular MLB draft, would you call drafting in the 34th spot top? The #34 guy is not even close to the top 5 guys in potential to start out with. And that's not saying that the lower guys won't exceed the top guys. They have and still can.

I am more concerned if he is the headliner as what is stated in the article.  If he is the best, that means we are spreading the money going for a quantity over quality approach.    

[Seth Stohs]

I'm not worried about getting a top, top international prospect. There are several strategies. The primary two are 1.) spend a ton on one prospect and fill however else, or 2.) sign a bunch for between $400K and $1.5M.  The Twins have done both over the years. So have other teams. 

I'd much prefer the Twins go with strategy #2. Even the top, top 16-year-olds international are a mixed bag of future success. 

In 2024, the Twins signed Santiago Leon ($1.7M), Carlos Taveras ($1.1M), Haritzon Castillo ($950K), Teilon Serrano ($850K), Santiago Castellanos ($850K), Jose Barrios ($425K), Joyner Perez ($400K), Jhomnardo Reyes ($335K), and Darwin Almanzar ($250K). Then they traded for Geromy Villoria (Phillies, Bader trade) who was signed a year ago for about $425K.  

In recent years, they've signed Ariel Castro ($2.4M), Hendry Chivilli ($2.1M), Carlos Silva ($1.1M), Miguel Sano ($3.15M), Amaurys Minier ($1.4M), Lewin Diaz ($1.4M), Max Kepler ($800K), Jorge Polanco ($725K), Huascar Ynoa ($800K). 

[nicksaviking]

21 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'm not worried about getting a top, top international prospect. There are several strategies. The primary two are 1.) spend a ton on one prospect and fill however else, or 2.) sign a bunch for between $400K and $1.5M.  The Twins have done both over the years. So have other teams. 

I'd much prefer the Twins go with strategy #2. Even the top, top 16-year-olds international are a mixed bag of future success. 

In 2024, the Twins signed Santiago Leon ($1.7M), Carlos Taveras ($1.1M), Haritzon Castillo ($950K), Teilon Serrano ($850K), Santiago Castellanos ($850K), Jose Barrios ($425K), Joyner Perez ($400K), Jhomnardo Reyes ($335K), and Darwin Almanzar ($250K). Then they traded for Geromy Villoria (Phillies, Bader trade) who was signed a year ago for about $425K.  

In recent years, they've signed Ariel Castro ($2.4M), Hendry Chivilli ($2.1M), Carlos Silva ($1.1M), Miguel Sano ($3.15M), Amaurys Minier ($1.4M), Lewin Diaz ($1.4M), Max Kepler ($800K), Jorge Polanco ($725K), Huascar Ynoa ($800K). 

Has the organization had an international player they signed do anything of note for the Twins since the Sano/Polanco/Kepler crowd? 

I'm looking at the Twins top prospects since 2017, and Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only international player to make the top TEN since Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Wander Javier in 2019 and all three of those guys were added by Terry Ryan's crew. 

Whatever Falvey's been doing, I think he should maybe try the complete opposite this year. How is it possible E-Rod is the only international signing to make the Twins top ten prospect lists under his now nine year tenure? That's absolutely bonkers. Prior to 2019 the lists had a significant presence of the Twins international signings, since then, crickets. This is an avenue to add talent that the Twins have almost completely whiffed on for the last decade.

[bunsen82]

40 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Has the organization had an international player they signed do anything of note for the Twins since the Sano/Polanco/Kepler crowd? 

I'm looking at the Twins top prospects since 2017, and Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only international player to make the top TEN since Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Wander Javier in 2019 and all three of those guys were added by Terry Ryan's crew. 

Whatever Falvey's been doing, I think he should maybe try the complete opposite this year. How is it possible E-Rod is the only international signing to make the Twins top ten prospect lists under his now nine year tenure? That's absolutely bonkers. Prior to 2019 the lists had a significant presence of the Twins international signings, since then, crickets. This is an avenue to add talent that the Twins have almost completely whiffed on for the last decade.

To be fair,  starting in 2016 is when things got pretty wonky in the international draft.  Remember 2016 is the year that the Braves started paying additional money under the table (an extra $11 million).  Even still the Twins had a very rough stretch on the international draft side there.   Add in some of the teams have built expansive complexes,  which has allowed them to have better scouting, better resources to train the prospects.   

Currently   4. Rodriguez  23 Adrian Bohorquez  24. Jose Olivarez  26. Ricardo Olivar  30 Danny De Andrade

Its not terrible,  but it is weak compared to other organizations.   Now they had had an extremely strong performance in the early 2010's.  

[nicksaviking]

21 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair,  starting in 2016 is when things got pretty wonky in the international draft.  Remember 2016 is the year that the Braves started paying additional money under the table (an extra $11 million).  Even still the Twins had a very rough stretch on the international draft side there.   Add in some of the teams have built expansive complexes,  which has allowed them to have better scouting, better resources to train the prospects.   

Currently   4. Rodriguez  23 Adrian Bohorquez  24. Jose Olivarez  26. Ricardo Olivar  30 Danny De Andrade

Its not terrible,  but it is weak compared to other organizations.   Now they had had an extremely strong performance in the early 2010's.  

Things may be different, but they do have Gabriel Gonzalez, Kendry Rojas and Eduardo Tait in their top 10. So OTHER teams are doing fine with international signings. Instead of making good calls on evals of these players while they were still overseas, the Twins had to trade Polanco, Duran and Varland just to get these kinds of prospects on their roster.

But I'll also be fair. The Twins did promote Kevin Goldstein to be the International Scouting Director two years ago. So obviously when we're talking about teenagers, two years is too early to evaluate if he's improved things. Probably shouldn't have taken seven years to take action on an area that clearly the team was failing at, but I guess now we wait.... as always.

[bunsen82]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Things may be different, but they do have Gabriel Gonzalez, Kendry Rojas and Eduardo Tait in their top 10. So OTHER teams are doing fine with international signings. Instead of making good calls on evals of these players while they were still overseas, the Twins had to trade Polanco, Duran and Varland just to get these kinds of prospects on their roster.

But I'll also be fair. The Twins did promote Kevin Goldstein to be the International Scouting Director two years ago. So obviously when we're talking about teenagers, two years is too early to evaluate if he's improved things. Probably shouldn't have taken seven years to take action on an area that clearly the team was failing at, but I guess now we wait.... as always.

Emmanuel Rodriguez signed in 2019.  It can take a long time to get international prospects to the MLB level.   So your concerns stem from 2010 to 2018 time frame after the Polanco Kepler and Sano class.  

In 2013 you had Arraez.  not much else.  

[Trov]

Ranking international prospects is no different than throwing darts at a board.  Very rarely is the "top" prospect ending up being the best player in their class.  Normally it is some guy in the 20 to 30's.  You can look at just about any of the class.  Go back to 2015 class Juan Soto was ranked 25th, Tatis Jr. 30th.  Vlad Jr. was 7th.  May of the other top guys never made majors or are pen guys. There are times yes, the top few guys end up being the best in the group, but year after year that is not the case.  When you are projecting these kids it is like pulling names out of a hat for rankings.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Ranking international prospects is no different than throwing darts at a board.  Very rarely is the "top" prospect ending up being the best player in their class.  Normally it is some guy in the 20 to 30's.  You can look at just about any of the class.  Go back to 2015 class Juan Soto was ranked 25th, Tatis Jr. 30th.  Vlad Jr. was 7th.  May of the other top guys never made majors or are pen guys. There are times yes, the top few guys end up being the best in the group, but year after year that is not the case.  When you are projecting these kids it is like pulling names out of a hat for rankings.

I agree, This is my view as well.  It's just really, really, hard to know by essentially age 15 what their skill set will be around 18 or 19 or 20 like the MLB draft.  Certainly there are traits to look for, but the hit tool is just so hard to predict because as you move up levels and the ball dips and dives etc. it takes some special hand eye coordination to be successful.  Way to hard to know at 15 IMO.

I would echo @nicksaviking it feels like it has been a long time since the Twins have gotten anything meaningful from their International signings and it can really help the farm when more of those players hit.

I also concur with @Seth Stohsthat the better strategy in general seems to be to take more guys in the $900,000 to $400,000 range rather than one big 4 to 5M guy.  The more darts you get to throw at upper level talent the better the odds IMO.  The best hitter for the Twins in the DSL last year was Joyner Perez (.950 OPS) and he only cost $390,000 versus Leon 1.7M who had a (.700 OPS).  Granted this is the DSL where stats mean very little, but I think it shows the amount of money spent on one player doesn't mean much other than hopefully higher potential if everything clicks and everything clicking doesn't happen that often.

The Phillies got Tait for $90,000K and helped them get Duran one of the better closers in Baseball.  I get that it's hard to figure out who to grab, but the Twins could use some better luck in this market.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'll concur with others, #34 is not even close to being Top. Compare this to the regular MLB draft, would you call drafting in the 34th spot top? The #34 guy is not even close to the top 5 guys in potential to start out with. And that's not saying that the lower guys won't exceed the top guys. They have and still can.

It's worse than being #34 in the draft. About 2/3 of MLB players come through the draft and 1/3 are international free agents. That means it's more like the 68th ranked player in the draft.

It is really difficult to guess at which 15- and 16-year-olds will be future MLB players. I wish international free agency started at age 18.

[mikelink45]

The real international signings already happened with the White Sox, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Houston and we missed out.  As we saw this year our best international players come from other organizations who seem to have a much better track record than we do. 

When I look for international players now in the Majors most were signed as free agents.  I am not sure how that works.  Julio Rodriguez seems to be the best signing from the draft.  I guess it is a nice event but I have very low expectations. 

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Has the organization had an international player they signed do anything of note for the Twins since the Sano/Polanco/Kepler crowd? 

I'm looking at the Twins top prospects since 2017, and Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only international player to make the top TEN since Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Wander Javier in 2019 and all three of those guys were added by Terry Ryan's crew. 

Whatever Falvey's been doing, I think he should maybe try the complete opposite this year. How is it possible E-Rod is the only international signing to make the Twins top ten prospect lists under his now nine year tenure? That's absolutely bonkers. Prior to 2019 the lists had a significant presence of the Twins international signings, since then, crickets. This is an avenue to add talent that the Twins have almost completely whiffed on for the last decade.

Yup, it one of the biggest under-the-radar Twins stories that haven't been talked about enough. It's been only Arraez since the big Sano/Polanco/Kepler crop and that needs to change. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

Ranking international prospects is no different than throwing darts at a board.  Very rarely is the "top" prospect ending up being the best player in their class.  Normally it is some guy in the 20 to 30's.  You can look at just about any of the class.  Go back to 2015 class Juan Soto was ranked 25th, Tatis Jr. 30th.  Vlad Jr. was 7th.  May of the other top guys never made majors or are pen guys. There are times yes, the top few guys end up being the best in the group, but year after year that is not the case.  When you are projecting these kids it is like pulling names out of a hat for rankings.

That's all fine. I'm perfectly content with a strategy of signing a batch of $0.5 - 1.5 million bonuses to prospects, but the headline clearly implies a $3-5 million prospect signing that would immediately slot into the top 20 prospects. 

Terrible, dishonest headline. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

That's all fine. I'm perfectly content with a strategy of signing a batch of $0.5 - 1.5 million bonuses to prospects, but the headline clearly implies a $3-5 million prospect signing that would immediately slot into the top 20 prospects. 

Terrible, dishonest headline. 

I truly hope Merlo hits big someday. But I feel like you, when I read the headline I'm thinking top5 or higher. Twins scored big.  Then I read the second paragraph and he's 34th. Basically this is a second round pick if every team had picked someone ahead of him.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Emmanuel Rodriguez signed in 2019.  It can take a long time to get international prospects to the MLB level.   So your concerns stem from 2010 to 2018 time frame after the Polanco Kepler and Sano class.  

In 2013 you had Arraez.  not much else.  

No, it stems more recently than 2018. They should have had more than E-rod pop up on lists since then. And E-rod first cracked the top ten back in 2023.  But like I said, there's a new guy running the international side of things as of two years ago, so maybe they're better at this and the young players since then will pop.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Yup, it one of the biggest under-the-radar Twins stories that haven't been talked about enough. It's been only Arraez since the big Sano/Polanco/Kepler crop and that needs to change. 

And Arraez was signed in 2014, so another Terry Ryan era player.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

Yup, it one of the biggest under-the-radar Twins stories that haven't been talked about enough. It's been only Arraez since the big Sano/Polanco/Kepler crop and that needs to change. 

Brusdar Graterol

[jkcarew]

6-1, 190 at 17 and doesn’t run ‘well’ now?? That says about 210-230 and slow at 25. So, not really thinking shortstop long term. Thinking…better hit a ton.

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Brusdar Graterol

Good catch, though looks like he was another Terry Ryan signing (2015). I guess you can give them credit for selling high on him.

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I am more concerned if he is the headliner as what is stated in the article.  If he is the best, that means we are spreading the money going for a quantity over quality approach.    

Would you buy 20 PowerBall tickets for $2 each our would you spend $20 for one?

[bunsen82]

49 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Would you buy 20 PowerBall tickets for $2 each our would you spend $20 for one?

Generally in baseball,  the elite talents are worth the extra money.  In the international world and dealing with 15 and 16 year olds there has been much more variability.  With extra money though we should be able to take at least 1 stab at a top 20 player for the 1.5 to 2 million range.  Then spread the rest out.  Just my personal opinion.  

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, Trov said:

Ranking international prospects is no different than throwing darts at a board.  Very rarely is the "top" prospect ending up being the best player in their class.  Normally it is some guy in the 20 to 30's.  You can look at just about any of the class.  Go back to 2015 class Juan Soto was ranked 25th, Tatis Jr. 30th.  Vlad Jr. was 7th.  May of the other top guys never made majors or are pen guys. There are times yes, the top few guys end up being the best in the group, but year after year that is not the case.  When you are projecting these kids it is like pulling names out of a hat for rankings.

Great Post!

I don't care about the rankings. I care about the development of the players they sign. 

Emmanuel Rodriquez was signed at age 16 in 2019 for 2.5 million. He was ranked 8th. That's all fine and dandy... the numbers are what the numbers are. However the most important number is 16. Age 16.  

The CBA states that the Twins have 5 years before a 40 man decision has to be made. This makes a 40 man decision necessary at age 21 in the case of Erod. The Twins added him after the the 2023 season to protect him from the rule 5 at age 21. He has since burned two of three options at age 23.  

To put this in perspective. Matt Wallner, Steer, Varland and Julien were Twins draft choices in 2019. These 4 players acquired in the same year. Are currently 28, 28, 28 and 26 years old. Steer has over 3 years of service time. Wallner and Julien have over 2 years of service time. 

Age matters. It matters a lot. Yes it's hard to project a 16 year old but it's even harder when we need them to be 40 man roster ready at age 21.  

The spillage from these timelines has to be a problem for the majority of these youngsters and the clubs trying to navigate their development and at the same time a huge financial windfall for the very few Juan Soto types who reach free agency at age 26.   

 

[EGFTShaw]

22 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'd much prefer the Twins go with strategy #2. Even the top, top 16-year-olds international are a mixed bag of future success.

In general, I agree.

Only time I may not follow this if I have a chance to get a what I am considering as a Franchise prospect...but even then I would need to be blown out of the water.

For example, let's say Walker Jenkins was available, (I avoided any college draftees on purpose) and you have a chance to get him.  Then maybe I would blow more on the one egg versus trying to get many eggs in the basket.

Good work Seth.

[EGFTShaw]

On 1/6/2026 at 11:39 AM, NYCTK said:

egregious

Beavis: heheheh, hehhehehe.  He said egregious.

NYCTK, FTW with one of my favorite words along with Audacity: Egregious

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Great Post!

I don't care about the rankings. I care about the development of the players they sign. 

Emmanuel Rodriquez was signed at age 16 in 2019 for 2.5 million. He was ranked 8th. That's all fine and dandy... the numbers are what the numbers are. However the most important number is 16. Age 16.  

The CBA states that the Twins have 5 years before a 40 man decision has to be made. This makes a 40 man decision necessary at age 21 in the case of Erod. The Twins added him after the the 2023 season to protect him from the rule 5 at age 21. He has since burned two of three options at age 23.  

To put this in perspective. Matt Wallner, Steer, Varland and Julien were Twins draft choices in 2019. These 4 players acquired in the same year. Are currently 28, 28, 28 and 26 years old. Steer has over 3 years of service time. Wallner and Julien have over 2 years of service time. 

Age matters. It matters a lot. Yes it's hard to project a 16 year old but it's even harder when we need them to be 40 man roster ready at age 21.  

The spillage from these timelines has to be a problem for the majority of these youngsters and the clubs trying to navigate their development and at the same time a huge financial windfall for the very few Juan Soto types who reach free agency at age 26.   

 

He'll be in AAA again this year, at least, if not longer, than it takes to get another year of control. 100% guaranteed.