Minnesota’s Three Unluckiest Hitters in 2025

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The 2025 season was another frustrating chapter for the Minnesota Twins. After another disappointing finish, a brief poll of fans might include nearly everyone on the roster when asked who underachieved at the plate. Royce Lewis struggled to stay on the field. Matt Wallner could not recapture his earlier impact. A slew of other players fell short of expectations as well. Still, when digging into the underlying data, the totals for three hitters are hard to ignore because the gap between results and the quality of contact tells a very different story.

League-wide context helps frame the discussion. MLB average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while average xwOBA checked in at .315. For those unfamiliar, wOBA is a catch-all metric that values the quality of contact along with strikeouts and walks. At the same time, xwOBA uses Statcast inputs like exit velocity and launch angle to estimate what should have happened. When a hitter shows a significant positive gap between xwOBA and wOBA, it often points toward bad luck rather than a broken approach.

Edouard Julien
Julien posted a .286 wOBA compared to a .330 xwOBA, creating a massive +.044 difference. The most glaring issue came against offspeed pitches, where he showed a 165-point gap between actual and expected production. His .208 slugging percentage versus a .471 expected slugging against those offerings underscores just how much damage failed to show up in the box score. Julien continued to hit the ball hard with a 12.2 Barrel percentage and a 39.0 LA-Sweet Spot rate, both strong indicators of sustainable offense.

Looking ahead to 2026, Julien’s elite plate discipline remains his calling card. He chased just 19.8 percent of pitches, which should continue to put him in favorable counts. If he can get back to punishing fastballs the way he did during his rookie season, the production should rebound. With no minor league options remaining, Julien will need to prove he can provide consistent value to the big league roster. Since he doesn’t have a defensive home, his production must come at the plate.

Kody Clemens
Clemens finished 2025 with a .307 wOBA and a .331 xwOBA, a +.024 gap that hints at some missed opportunities. The Twins gave him extended playing time for the first time in his career and largely liked what they saw. Clemens made solid contact with a 12.0 Barrel percentage and a 35.9 Sweet-Spot rate. Fastballs were the pitch type whose results lagged most behind expectations, with a 32-point difference. He saw heaters more than 58 percent of the time, so doing more damage there could quickly lift his overall line.

The outlook for 2026 is more complicated. Minnesota discussed using Clemens as the regular first baseman before signing Josh Bell. Clemens is the better defender at the position, so there is still a path for both players to share the lineup, with Bell sliding to designated hitter. His theoretical defensive versatility will get him playing time, and he was one of the team’s clubhouse leaders in the second half. With a 96 OPS+, Clemens already profiles as close to a league-average bat. Closing the gap between actual and expected numbers could push him firmly into that tier.

James Outman
Outman’s surface numbers were rough, highlighted by a .237 wOBA and a .267 xwOBA for a +.030 difference. He arrived at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Brock Stewart away, and most of his big league plate appearances in 2025 came with Minnesota. Outside of his excellent 16.9 Barrel percentage, many of his Statcast metrics lagged behind league norms. That makes his minor league track record impossible to ignore. At Triple-A last season, Outman posted a .945 OPS with a 131 wRC+, showing a hitter who still knows how to punish mistakes.

For 2026, roster status looms large. Outman is out of minor league options, meaning the Twins must either find him a role or risk losing him. His ability to cover all three outfield spots makes him a natural fit as the team’s fourth outfielder. If even a portion of his Triple-A production carries over, the Twins could uncover sneaky value.

Underachievement defined much of the Twins offense in 2025, but Julien, Clemens, and Outman stand out because the data suggests they deserved better outcomes. Expected metrics are not guarantees, yet they often serve as early indicators of rebound potential. If luck swings back toward the mean in 2026, this trio could quietly reshape the lineup.

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Which of these hitters do you believe is most likely to bounce back next season, or is there another Twin you would add to this list? Let us know your thoughts in the comments. And stop by later today to see who the Twins' three luckiest hitters were. 

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[the_brute_squad]

First! I suspect we won't see much improvement from the three. Mostly due to limited at bats because of their platoon situation. There is the distinct possibility of improvement if they end up elsewhere as I don't see all three making opening day.

[Coach Wheels]

Clemens is a career .206 hitter who hit .213 fir the Twins with almost 350 official AB's. He has a career WAR of 1.1 and had a WAR of 1.0 in 2025. While I'm too old to do a deep dive on the analytics of current baseball nerds, I am very comfortable stating that Clemens wasn't as unlucky as he was who he's been for every team he played for prior to Minnesota.

He had twice as many AB's this year and hit more HR, that's the bright side for a team that has lacked power for a few years.

[Old Crow]

wOBA, xwOBA, not all readers are familiar with the new age technical language used by those in love with money ball statistics.  Even political pundits usually explain initialism the first time it is used in an article.

[DJL44]

I don't expect any of these batters to approach their xWOBA predicted results.

Julien over his last two seasons (509 PAs) hit .208/.299/.324 while providing negative value on defense. He has consistently struck out 32% of the time. His walk rate has dropped from 15% in his rookie season to 11% since then as pitchers found the holes in his approach.

Filling the roster with bad players who may have underperformed a prediction metric is a recipe for a 100+ loss season.

[miracleb]

Clemens has been "unlucky" his entire career.  He should not be in the conversation.  Outman may have hit the top of his "bell curve" after his 2023 season (26 yrs old.)   Neither should be on a major league roster.......but I would rather take the chance on Outman based on his minor league track record.  Of course, it probably won't come down to an either/or situation on just these two players.  DH and first base are the two easiest positions to fill.  We need MUCH more productivity at first base than what Clemens will give us.

[Blyleven2011]

First of all I'm old school and don't go into the moneyball analysis  ...

You make contact or you don't,  you make contact and find a hole through the infield or a hit to the grass , you get a good pitch to drive and it may go in the bleachers,..

It's all about selection of what pitch the batter swings at , exit velocity  squaring up the ball is nice and forcing the defense to make or not make the play  , getting on base with soft contact is fine with me , a Texas leaguer hit is fine with me,  getting on base is fine with me because it's the name of the game , I've seen many games where a team doesn't get the ball out of the infield and they score runs in an inning when we think they shouldn't , is there analytics on that ...

To many aggressive hitters today that don't have the patience or can't recognize what pitch is being thrown results in alot of outs ...

There seems like the batters lack  strategy , discipline and adjustments in the game of baseball today ...

[twinsfansd]

In the case of Outman, it's tough to change his luck on batted balls when he never huts the ball. Swinging and missing at a large number of pitches will not give the hitter an opportunity at better luck.

And really, Julien is kind of in the same boat. He may be unlucky against breaking pitches, but until he can catch up to a fastball, pitcher will continue to abuse him.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

wOBA, xwOBA, not all readers are familiar with the new age technical language used by those in love with money ball statistics.  Even political pundits usually explain initialism the first time it is used in an article.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average

X stats are expected outcomes based on what usually happens by statcast data 

[TJSweens]

I always roll my eyes when people try to use advanced analytics to say a player isn't as bad as he really is. 

[old nurse]

Julian had 182 AB in 64 games. He had 40 hits for a .220 BA.  Since walks and HBP are not going to change by the x stats xba will suffice for this. His xba was .247. He should have had 5 more hits, or 1 more hit every 12 games. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

First of all I'm old school and don't go into the moneyball analysis  ...

It's all about selection of what pitch the batter swings at , exit velocity  squaring up the ball is nice and forcing the defense to make or not make the play  , getting on base with soft contact is fine with me , a Texas leaguer hit is fine with me,  getting on base is fine with me because it's the name of the game , I've seen many games where a team doesn't get the ball out of the infield and they score runs in an inning when we think they shouldn't , is there analytics on that?

I made out the lineups for my slow-pitch team in the 70s and 80s.  My reasoning behind the lineup was based solely on the percentage of times the player reached base safely (except for a fielders choice).  Error?  Walk?  Base hit?  They all counted as reached base safely.  Much like you, I didn't care how they get on base as long as no out occurred.  The interesting "advanced metric" that I discovered was that the lineup remained consistent over the years.  Some people just get on base. 

[GNess]

Quantifying a "luck" factor in baseball or any other sport and connecting it to expected performance is suspect imho.

Luck by definition has a large random quality that defies such predictive models. An athlete and/or coach thinking they can harness it or correct for it is headed down a difficult path.

[Jeff K]

D...for none of the above.

[Eris]

The problem with these metrics is they don’t take into consideration defensive placement as if the batter has no control over where the ball is hit. Someone who is a dead pull hitter almost always will have an outcome worse than expected as their hitting placement is more predictable and defense positions accordingly. (Unless they are hitting home runs). For years we have read how Max Kepler was one of the most unluckiest hitters in all of baseball. But even moving to a hitter friendly park did improve outcomes for Kepler. 
 

I am sure that when Julien and Clemens learn to pepper line drives to all fields their outcomes will improve. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Julian had 182 AB in 64 games. He had 40 hits for a .220 BA.  Since walks and HBP are not going to change by the x stats xba will suffice for this. His xba was .247. He should have had 5 more hits, or 1 more hit every 12 games. 

By .xslg those 5 hits should have been HR

[High heat]

It would be fine if your had one of these guys on the roster and the others could be options to AAA.  You can only have 1 of Clemens or Julien on the roster for 1B unless Keachell is hurt during ST.  
 

Outman only makes this team as a CF backup if he can prove he can play solid CF again AND Larnach is traded or an injury.

 

realistically all 3 of them could be gone with a 1B signing and a healthy spring. 

[mluebker]

Stats never tell the whole story. Some guys come up with good underlying number and apparently high ceilings but never reach them. Others have to scrap their way into the line-up, work hard every day to stay there, and end up being of greater value to a team than the guy with more talent. I'm always going to prefer the latter.

[karcherd]

55 minutes ago, High heat said:

realistically all 3 of them could be gone with a 1B signing and a healthy spring

What 1B signing is going to happen.  They just traded for Wagaman and signed Bell.  It is pretty clear the plan is for those two to hold down first base.  Now it is a very flawed plan, but Falvey is the genius not us on TD.

[mluebker]

2 minutes ago, karcherd said:

What 1B signing is going to happen.  They just traded for Wagaman and signed Bell.  It is pretty clear the plan is for those two to hold down first base.  Now it is a very flawed plan, but Falvey is the genius not us on TD.

I'd rather have Clemens playing (or platooned at) first base for his defensive skills and occasional moments at the plate than either of those guys. And I'd rather have probably half the guys commenting here as the Twins GM. At least they're paying attention to what happens on the field.

[ToddlerHarmon]

3 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

In the case of Outman, it's tough to change his luck on batted balls when he never huts the ball. Swinging and missing at a large number of pitches will not give the hitter an opportunity at better luck.

And really, Julien is kind of in the same boat. He may be unlucky against breaking pitches, but until he can catch up to a fastball, pitcher will continue to abuse him.

This is the whole deal. The sample size of batted balls last season for all three was small, and when you zoom back, the larger sample size doesn't make any of them look like good MLB hitters.

And each of them have notable small samples where they looked great: Outman and Julien as rookies and Clemens in his first few weeks as a Twin.

The regression to the mean has already happened for them. The only luck remaining is that they are all lucky to be on an MLB roster.

[DocBauer]

Bad luck or not, projection metrics that say he could still be better, how does Julien even fit with Bell and Wagaman on hand at 1B and DH with Clemens as at least part of the equation there as well? Mediocre defense, can't hit any longer, power had largely disappeared, would you want him at 2B and move Keaschall to the OF? Why on earth would you do that for such a young player when you already have a crowded OF and 3 top 10 prospects who are all OF sitting at AAA?

Outman played poor defense and was one of the worst hitters I've seen in recent memory. Even the projected numbers presented in the OP state 'improvement" would still have him as a poor hitter.

Clemens, if he can hit fastballs better, has some room to improve even to a small percentage. Considering he was a useful reserve and not far from league average, he's worth discussing. But he should be a useful reserve and not a starter.

[Mahoning]

One of them might become a major league average hitter. Such are the Twins’ aspirations.

[Riverbrian]

23 hours ago, old nurse said:

He should have had 5 more hits, or 1 more hit every 12 games. 

Unfortunately.

This sentence and it's implications will be lost by most.

The margins are tiny on a per PA basis and it takes a lot of time or PA's to accumulate actual differences or separation and players will get torn apart over that separation on this website. One more hit every 12 games produces separation or closes separation.  

.315 was the 2025 MLB average OBP. Put in a 100 balls in the drum. Paint 31.5 of them Green... go ahead and round up to 32 green balls.  Reach in and hope you grab a green one. The top hitters... the elite players at making less outs. They get 38 green balls. The really bad ones... get 27 Green balls. 

Now take all 3 drums and start drawing. Draw 100 balls out of each. Does anyone think it's impossible to draw more green balls out of the 27 green ball drum than the 32 green ball drum over 100 draws? 

How many draws do you need before replication occurs?  

The margins between good and bad are thin. These are the margins that determine playing time or no playing time. These are the margins that create a short side platoon. 

[rv78]

Outside of Buxton, Keaschall and maybe Martin, couldn't you list every other Twins hitter here? I mean, aren't all of them being expected to hit better in 2026? Shelton and the new coaches were hired to IMPROVE the club, right? Every move Falvey is making is being done to IMPROVE the roster, right? Otherwise, why is any change being done? They say you can't make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. Joe said they were going to "go big or go home". This off-season isn't any different than any other off-season with Falvey and Joe running the show. All I see is "this little piggy stayed home".

[jorgenswest]

The point of xwOBA is it is more stable in small samples than wOBA and slash stats. It takes a very large sample for slash stats to stabilize.

Julien outperformed his contact in 2023. He had poor contact numbers in 2024. He underperformed his contact in 2025. He probably should be expected to be in middle of his 2023 and 2025 performances. That would be in the neighborhood of a league average. That isn’t enough to start at 1B. He doesn’t help on the bench with speed or defensive versatility. Without improvement his only good fit on a roster is a starting 2B if his glove is at least mediocre. With less than 1000 plate appearances improvement is possible. The Twins need to be open to that possibility and not have their minds fixed. Julien needs to show that improvement in spring.

Clemens is a good fit on a bench. He can play 5 positions, run the bases and offers pop. He hit right handed pitching well and is a platoon fit at several positions.

Outman was unlucky but that doesn’t matter when his expected stats aren’t good enough either. With his defense he needs a bat in the Michael A Taylor range (career OPS+ about 80) to have a major league job as a fourth outfielder. Taylor was an exceptional fielder and that was good enough to start some years. Outman’s 2023 season and minor league numbers make that a possibility. He will need to show it in spring or I would go with the upside in Roden’s bat as the 4th OF and sacrifice some defense. Once Jenkins or Rodriguez arrive the Twins won’t have a need for a back up CF with an 80 OPS so the clock is ticking. Outman needs to take advantage of any opportunity he gets early this year.

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Unfortunately.

This sentence and it's implications will be lost by most.

The margins are tiny on a per PA basis and it takes a lot of time or PA's to accumulate actual differences or separation and players will get torn apart over that separation on this website. One more hit every 12 games produces separation or closes separation.  

.315 was the 2025 MLB average OBP. Put in a 100 balls in the drum. Paint 31.5 of them Green... go ahead and round up to 32 green balls.  Reach in and hope you grab a green one. The top hitters... the elite players at making less outs. They get 38 green balls. The really bad ones... get 27 Green balls. 

Now take all 3 drums and start drawing. Draw 100 balls out of each. Does anyone think it's impossible to draw more green balls out of the 27 green ball drum than the 32 green ball drum over 100 draws? 

How many draws do you need before replication occurs?  

The margins between good and bad are thin. These are the margins that determine playing time or no playing time. These are the margins that create a short side platoon. 

With the same launch angle and exit velocity a 360 foot shot at Target Field can be a foul ball, aHR, a double of the wall, a dramatic out, or an easy out.  Timing, not luck.  

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

With the same launch angle and exit velocity a 360 foot shot at Target Field can be a foul ball, aHR, a double of the wall, a dramatic out, or an easy out.  Timing, not luck.  

360 foot shots to CF typically don't end well. Those 360 foot shots pulled to dead right are hitting an old lady in the head standing in the plaza while she looks for her grandchildren. Timing is probably the primary factor in how many green balls or hits are in the raffle drum for each player. There is luck but yeah... timing is what the game of baseball is all about.  

Those pitchers are doing everything they can do to disrupt the hitters timing. The pitchers who are best at it get the big contracts. The hitters who keep their timing for longer periods of time and punish mistakes more often than not also get the big contracts. The manager who can time players individual timing with opportunity can squeeze out an extra win or two or ten.   

Timing is probably the primary explanation for most slumps or most streaks.

Sequencing also matters. When are you slumping? When are you streaking? Is the manager sitting you during a streak and playing a slumping player everyday during an extended slump. If you don't start with a streak... will you get a chance to streak later and erase the slump? If you absorb a lengthy slump for a big September... What do you gain in the end?    

Another point on timing and sequencing. How does Detroit have a run differential of +67 while Cleveland has a run differential of -5. Yet Cleveland wins 88 and Detroit wins 87. Timing and sequencing is how. It's not just timing your swing, it's timing when you time your swing. 

Timing is everything but in the end those margins are still pretty damn thin.  

In your post that I originally responded to. Actually, the sentence I responded to, is important for everyone to think about. It may or may not be what you intended but important nonetheless.

One additional hit every 12 games would have raised Julien's BA 27 points. Those small x stats suggest that those 5 hits should have been home runs. That raises his SLG almost 100 points. It raises his OBP to around .368 and now we have an .800 OPS. 

Did Julien spend his streak (If he had one) of good timing in AAA? He didn't start well and down he went. If Clemens doesn't get insanely hot for two three weeks. Does Julien get called up from AAA sooner? 

1 Event every three games and we LOVE Julien! 1 Event every three games and we don't need Josh Bell. 1 event every three games in April alone and maybe he sees May, June, July in the majors. 

At 208 AB's. One 5 for 5 day could have changed the perception toward Julien.

The season that he had in 2025 while burning his last option is also a function of timing. Bad timing because timing not being on his side as he runs out of options forces a hard 26 man decision the following year.     

Yes... you are correct. Timing is everything. Especially in consideration of the thin margins that are deciding fates.