Article: Marketable Twins (2nd of two-part series)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2064-Marketable-Twins-(2nd-of-two-part-series)

[Oldgoat_MN]

Can't see anyone trading anything of value for Morneau the way he's hitting lately.

You trade Plouffe and who is your RH power hitter?

I'd hate to see Perkins go.

 

OK, I lack imagination.

These are engaging scenarios. It will be interesting to see if anything happens.

 

Edit: and you should have had a link to Part 1. Thanks

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Chris Colabello could serve as a RH power 1B if multiple moves are made.

 

I added the link, good call.

[beckmt]

Perkins would bring the highest return. Depends on if a trade partner will bite the bullet and make an offer TR cannot refuse. 2015 is the best bet for a Twins resurgence and Perkins would be in his last year. MLBtraderumors says on reliefers take the money and run. I sort of agree.

[howieramone1406390264]

Jeremy, I don't care which Perkins deal you do, as long as you do one. Getting 2 starting pitching prospects would be huge. That leaves us with our first pick for a SS next draft.

[glunn]

Jeremy, this is a very interesting article and I enjoyed it a lot.

[Thegrin]

If we trade Perkins now, who would be our closer? Its not about this year. Its about the future.

 

We still have 1/2 a season to play. If we can't get much for Morneau, why not keep him to be an example for the young talent. If the young hitters start hitting with men in scoring position and the rotation develops 3 or 4 consistent pitchers, the Twins could play .500+ ball for the rest of the season.

 

In my opinion, trading Plouffe would be a mistake unless somebody would give us a couple pitchers better than Meyers and May. Sano may be 2 years away and Plouffe is a versatile player.

[Kwak]

This is a very interesting article for discussion. I don't know squat about the non-Twins mentioned, but I am curious to know how likely any of these teams are to offering what was written.

Trading Perkins is risky, but plausible. However, I think a good closer is worth someone very close to ML-ready and I would be very reluctant to make a trade that involved solely Class A "prospects".

Trading Plouffe is even more risky than Perkins. Sano's numbers at AA aren't even at the "replacement player" level yet and to simply hand him 3B is courting disaster. Plouffe might even improve somewhat too.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Great piece, Jeremy. Like the last point about needing to learn to be sellers. Selling Perkins is an oppurtunity that shouldn't be missed. I would happily endorse any top 50 prospect return for him. As for the Yankees, how about TJ sidelined Manny Banuelos as a piece?

 

Second question. Long-shot targets: Jurickson Profar or Starlin Castro. Obviously very unlikely, but what might be a package that could possibly net one of then? (I was thinking Morneau/Perkins/Top 15 prospect like Harrison?)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think the Rangers are going to hold onto Profar until the Marlins make Stanton available.

 

Castro is interesting, and I hear he could be available. The issue is that the Cubs are in rebuild mode too, so it would take prospects (likely a stud pitcher as the headliner). If Alex Meyer were healthy, he would probably be the only one that fits that description. I don't see the Twins going that route.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see Plouffe as something to trade unless the return is great. The reason is pretty simple. Plouffe is a useful piece now who is young enough and cost controlled enough to be a part of the next wave. He's versatile enough to play any infield position, so if someone falters, he can come in and at worst put up average production for the position.

 

For Perkins, I tend to agree with you. One top 50 guy (a pitcher or a SS) with another high ceiling guy. Boston is a really good match in that they could use help there and have the prospects worth dealing. They have 3 guys in their AA rotation that would fit that mold (Ranaudo, Barnes, and Webster) as well as middle infield help in Bogarts (probably untouchable) and Marrero. They have the pieces, the question is whether they'd bite.

 

The Morneau trade is underwhelming, but that's about what you'd likely get for him. Not sure I'd target a catcher given that the Twins have a decent prospect in Pinto who will be there next year.

[Dman]

I don't think the Twins will trade Perkins. He gave the team a hometown deal to stay in his hometown in Minnesota. The Twins are loyal and will honor that gentleman's agreement. Yes I know they don't have too but I think they will do what Perk wants and he wants to stay here.

 

It does make some sense to trade Perkins as he likely won't be around when the young guys get things going. If he continues to pitch this well then another team will step in at the end of this contract and offer crazy money and if he gets hurt then likely is done anyway. His value will likely never be higher than it is right now.

 

If by some miracle they do trade him get ready to read about another former Twin turned All-Star for another team.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I think the Rangers are going to hold onto Profar until the Marlins make Stanton available.

 

Castro is interesting, and I hear he could be available. The issue is that the Cubs are in rebuild mode too, so it would take prospects (likely a stud pitcher as the headliner). If Alex Meyer were healthy, he would probably be the only one that fits that description. I don't see the Twins going that route.

 

Well, here's hoping Stanton doesn't become available.

 

Sounds promising that Castro could be available; you'd think with the strength of the Twins farm system, Theo would be interested. As for pitching prospects in return for Castro, what about May or Berrios?

They'd have to include more, such as...Jorge Polanco? I know that in general proposals such as these underestimate what would be required, but two top-10 prospects might be enough?

[Major League Ready]

Very interesting, Jeremy. It seems to me that it really comes down to our willingness to be a little worse now in order to make an already good farm system even better. Personally there is no difference to me between being bad and really bad. Therefore, I say sell. I also hope for a silver lining in that moving veterans makes room to give more guys a shot to make in at the MLB level. How great would it be if one or two players out of Colabello, Albers, Tonkin, Hendricks, Worley, etc could surprise us and step it up if given the opportunity to develop in the majors.

 

Morneau – If he is willing to sign an extension for 2 years at $14M it becomes an interesting decision. If not, and we can get a prospect with a decent shot at making the ML roster, you let him go. We can still try to sign him next season if that makes sense.

 

Plouffe is actually the tough one to me because he has shown signs that suggest he might finally reach his potential. He has had a much better approach and been getting the barrel of the bat on the ball. At times he has drilled the ball the other way quite a bit but they were hit at someone. So, even if Sano does replace him, he could be a super utility player / DH. Holding on to him for another might also yield better prospects if he does in fact continue to improve.

 

Perkins is pretty easy to me if he brings the kind of offers you have suggested. The twins are likely not going to be a serious contender until his current contract is up and a closer is not critical to a poor or mediocre team. Meyer, May, Sano, and Rosario likely will not be here until mid 2014. We can’t expect to be serious contenders their first full year in 2015. I think we need to be realistic about when this team could be a serious contender. Perkins does not fit into that equation.

[Oldgoat_MN]

...

Meyer, May, Sano, and Rosario likely will not be here until mid 2014. We can’t expect to be serious contenders their first full year in 2015....

 

I like the optimism, but the point you were making is actually stronger to me, as I would be shocked if any of those players sees MLB before September, 2014.

 

Oh, yeah, and I really like Jeremy's point about Chris Colabello. That would be great!

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I like the Zach Lee idea best and it also happens to be the most realistic/likely of the trades IMO.

 

I'd avoid the Red Sox, it may be unfair bias but their prospects always seem overhyped.

[Siehbiscuit]

Morneau can and should be traded. Just like the Carlos Lee example, someone will pay to get the last few drop out of Justin Morneau. Morneau can still hit, btw. He just isn't hitting HR's. He is a much better player than Lee was last year at the same time. Look at what James Loney is doing in TB, compared to his recent time in LA. A change in scenery may be what gets him going.

 

No on the move of Plouffe. There is not an in-house option to replace him until likely late 2014 (Sano) and he isn't part of the problem.

 

MOVE Perkins. His value is through the roof. He's the best pitcher on the market and he's cheap, so every team could be bidding for his services, not just the high-rollers. His vaue will never be higher and his value to a losing team is miniscule.

[Mike Sixel]

It would be a nice change if they dealt a guy at his peak, rather than later.......but I keep plouffe, I think he can be part of the future. Perkins should go. There is plenty of evidence teams can make closers......

[Thrylos]

I think that all these scenaria are extremely optimistic.

 

Re: Perkins: He is a good closer. And potentially he would not be a closer in a contending team that already has one. Last time someone paid that much for a closer, were the Twins for Capps. I just do not see it. I can see him bringing back max a lower level higher ranked prospect and maybe an intriguing guy who needs redirection. You cannot trade MLB-ready mid-rotation potential SPs for a closer.

 

Morneau: I think that the Twins should stay away and not re-sign him, unless he is willing to do it for Thome money and accept Thome duty. They have enough first basemen in the organization to fill in until Mauer makes the transition. That said, they should trade him by all means, but adding another soft-tossing, contact-inducing, back of the rotation/AAAA/long relief guy who is "ready" is the least the Twins need. The have about 8 of these guys right now. They got to go low minors/high risk/ high return again, because they need the high return. I would even take a younger toolsie guy with some flaws.

 

I am all for the Twins to go out and get another catcher (esp. if that means that Butera would be gone), but it looks like they think they are set in the minors, since they just officially listing Rohlfing as an OF. Pinto, Herrmann (and Koch) would be fine as long as Mauer is playing behind the plate with some regularity. 2-3 from now is a different story and that need they might need to address, depending how the aforementioned 3 develop.

 

I see no reason to trade Plouffe and they would be selling low at this point. Trading Doumit on the other hand makes a ton of sense and he would bring something back.

 

The one thing that the Twins got to do, is to try to package "prospects" in some of these to get better returns. I am just not convinced that they could not get more for Benson, Robertson, Manship, Slama, Solarte etc if they included them in trades when their value was high. Pavano for Pino and Rauch for Malvey are somewhat of examples here, but that was a different GM. So, do you add someone like Kennys Vargas or Tyler Jones in a trade to really get better prospects out there? That is the question. Not players like Sano or Buxton, but players who do have value, but can go either way and there is a lot of risk associated (like being old for their league etc)

[Brandon]

Morneau: I'd trade hime for your proposal to the Yanks, his value will rely on more players getting suspended for PED use. it may be more than you think if a contender loses someone important. I would also be ok keeping him and signing a 2 year 14 million with huge incentives to reach past glory.

 

Plouffe: why trade him now when you can trade him later? he'll be just as valuable next year or beyond and is versatile.

 

Perkins: I'd trade him for Boegarts and one of those pitchers but there is not much else I would trade him for several AA pitching prospects that are close to majors.... Though I could be convinced otherwise if i were the GM and the offers were better.

 

I do like the idea of making this team worse to get better draft position next ear and get more prospects this year. THat could set this team up to compete for a long time.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Morneau can and should be traded. Just like the Carlos Lee example, someone will pay to get the last few drop out of Justin Morneau. Morneau can still hit, btw. He just isn't hitting HR's. He is a much better player than Lee was last year at the same time. Look at what James Loney is doing in TB, compared to his recent time in LA. A change in scenery may be what gets him going.

 

No on the move of Plouffe. There is not an in-house option to replace him until likely late 2014 (Sano) and he isn't part of the problem.

 

MOVE Perkins. His value is through the roof. He's the best pitcher on the market and he's cheap, so every team could be bidding for his services, not just the high-rollers. His vaue will never be higher and his value to a losing team is miniscule.

 

Agreed on all. I really like the Morneau to Loney comparison. The problem with it highlights how over paid Morneau is to his production (currently). The Twins would need to eat 6-7M of his existing contract to get any return. They should and must do so.

[ThePuck]

Agreed on all. I really like the Morneau to Loney comparison. The problem with it highlights how over paid Morneau is to his production (currently). The Twins would need to eat 6-7M of his existing contract to get any return. They should and must do so.

 

Serious question. Have the Twins ever eaten salary in a trade since the 2000s began? I'm not sure that's an option for them strictly on philosophy, but again, don't know for sure. It's why I'm asking if anyone can give specifics.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Serious question. Have the Twins ever eaten salary in a trade since the 2000s began? I'm not sure that's an option for them strictly on philosophy, but again, don't know for sure. It's why I'm asking if anyone can give specifics.

 

I don't know the answer to this question but if it would be a first, this is the year for it to happen with the current payroll.

[Siehbiscuit]

I can't answer that either, but if the Twins did "eat" the remaining balance of Morneau's salary (approx $6million) I would assume the Twins would think of this similar to the draft or an international prospect. Would the Twins pay $6 million as signing bonus money for the handful of prospects that Morneau would fetch? My answer is no. If the money was closer to $2-3, then possibly. The Twins paid $6M to sign Buxton and $4+ to sign Stewart. I don't think they like the idea to give away a fan favorite and pay $6M and not get great/elite talent in return. The Marlins' prospects (Matt Dominguez being the headliner) were not elite by any stretch. Morneau's salary will not be "eaten" unless a team is willing to throw in something very substantial in a package that includes, a top 50 talent (which isn't going to happen).

 

The Twins are about as fiscally conservative as it gets.

[nokomismod]

As much as I like Perkins, I think you have to listen to offers and this is the perfect time to trade. I kind of expect Doumit and Carrol to be traded. Both veteran guys that would be great on a playoff contender, but who are taking up some "valuable" at bats on this team.

[Oxtung]

This is a very interesting article for discussion. I don't know squat about the non-Twins mentioned, but I am curious to know how likely any of these teams are to offering what was written.

Trading Perkins is risky, but plausible. However, I think a good closer is worth someone very close to ML-ready and I would be very reluctant to make a trade that involved solely Class A "prospects".

Trading Plouffe is even more risky than Perkins. Sano's numbers at AA aren't even at the "replacement player" level yet and to simply hand him 3B is courting disaster. Plouffe might even improve somewhat too.

 

If Sano doesn't pan out or doesn't stick at 3B there are other options in the farm system long term. Travis Harrison at Beloit as well as Javier Pimentel and Amaurys Minier at rookie ball who were both big money international signings. They are all several years out so a stop gap FA would need to be signed but there is a potential replacement besides Sano in the Twins system.

 

That said I wouldn't trade Plouffe either. He is a decent bat that could still be around when when the Twins are ready to compete. His positional versatility adds value as well.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If Sano doesn't pan out or doesn't stick at 3B there are other options in the farm system long term. Travis Harrison at Beloit as well as Javier Pimentel and Amaurys Minier at rookie ball who were both big money international signings. They are all several years out so a stop gap FA would need to be signed but there is a potential replacement besides Sano in the Twins system.

 

That said I wouldn't trade Plouffe either. He is a decent bat that could still be around when when the Twins are ready to compete. His positional versatility adds value as well.

 

The problem with that is that these guys are a minimum of 3 years out.

[Oxtung]

The problem with that is that these guys are a minimum of 3 years out.

 

Yup. I was only making the point that it isn't Sano or bust.

[nicksaviking]

We haven't discussed Deduno at all. It probably is silly to bring up as the guy doesn't have a ton of experience which may limit his trade value, but he has performed on big stages with the WBC championship game and shutting down the Yankees today. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2016 and not a free agent until 2019 which is pretty nice since no one would have to be concerned with contract talks until he is in his late 30's. The controlability is a reason to keep him as well, but every time people discuss the future of the Twins rotaion, they nearly always omit him from discussion.

 

He's probably not worth a ton, but really, is there anyone to really compare his value to? I wonder.

[jorgenswest]

Serious question. Have the Twins ever eaten salary in a trade since the 2000s began? I'm not sure that's an option for them strictly on philosophy, but again, don't know for sure. It's why I'm asking if anyone can give specifics.

 

I found two Terry Ryan trades that sent cash with the player

 

Traded catcher A.J. Pierzynski and cash to the San Francisco Giants. Received pitchers Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser.

Under the Rule 5 Draft, the Twins sent minor leaguer Jared Camp and cash to the Florida Marlins in exchange for Johan Santana.