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Siehbiscuit

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Everything posted by Siehbiscuit

  1. Siehbiscuit
    Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezKaelen CulpepperMarek HoustonEduardo TaitRiley QuickKendry RojasHendry MendezDasan HillBrandon WinokurCharlee SotoQuentin YoungYasser MercedesKhadim DiawBilly AmickGabriel GonzalezRyan GallagherJames EllwangerEduardo BeltreEnrique Jimenez
  2. Siehbiscuit
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezEduardo TaitMick AbelKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippDasan HillKendry RojasCharlee SotoGabriel GonzalezMarek HoustonRiley QuickMarco RayaKyle DeBargeBrandon WinokurAndrew MorrisQuentin YoungCJ CulpepperKhadim Diaw
  3. Siehbiscuit
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippEmmanuel RodriguezDasan HillGabriel GonzalezCharlee SotoMarco RayaBrandon WinokurMarek HoustonRiley QuickAndrew MorrisKyle DeBargeKhadim DiawCJ CulpepperBilly AmickQuentin YoungEduardo BeltreRicardo Olivar
  4. Siehbiscuit
    I look at the underlying metrics being talked about (launch angle, exit velo, etc) vs the result of the at-bat is similar to what I do at work. I have been in sales for 20+ years and IMO, the salespeople that deliver the best results are those that consistently demonstrate the most consistent behavior. WARNING: Over-simplification coming - If two salespeople each closed 5 deals last month, how can I predict/forecast what each one can or will produce next month? You look at the behaviors of what they are doing (calls made, appointments set, etc). By tracking "leading indicators" and pairing them with the lagging indicators, you can better predict future outcomes. These are similar to the metrics that are being talked about. Players that have a higher barrel rate will tend to get more hits. They'll get unlucky, sure, but more often than not when evaluating multiple things or players the underlying numbers (leading indicators) add more predictive value than just the lagging indicators alone (batting average, OBP, hits, BB, etc).
  5. Siehbiscuit
    I am in the camp that potentially elite game changers don't want to come to Minnesota and are borderline unattainable via free agency. So, when the opportunity knocks and the chance to secure a face of the franchise-type player arises. You HAVE to lock him up. I'd give Buxton a 6 year, 90M guaranteed contract (including 2022's $7.5M) with incentives of $2M & $2M at 450 PA & 550 PA and $3M for top 5 MVP voting and $3M for Gold Glove (bonus $1M for Platinum Glove). All in all, 550 PA in a season he could earn $26M per season.
  6. Siehbiscuit
    My point was to defend the initial posters (the one you originally resounded to) thoughts on 2020 roster. He made some additions and you made the comment that the Twins would still be leaving a lot of money on the table. If the Twins had plans to tie up that money in extensions for several of their young players, payroll could be similar to this year’s.
  7. Siehbiscuit
    Cutting spending should definitely not happen. While I don’t think this regime, will likely ever carry a $15M reliever, they do have several young players to consider locking up to extensions and that could eat up an additional $18-25M in payroll. Giving out contracts like Polanco’s and Kepler’s (young and under control) are far more likely to maximize ROI than 30+ year olds hitting free agency. Personally, I’d prefer to lock up Berrios, Sano and even roll the dice on Buxton extensions this off-season. Everyone has their own methods, but outside of Jon Singleton, young players getting extended, tend to work out better than FA.
  8. Siehbiscuit
    I’ll go mid-season, because I am eternal optimist (don’t most Twins fans have to be to keep hanging on?). 1 - Buxton ® 2 - Polanco (S) 3 - Cruz ® 4 - Sano ® 5 - Rosario (L) 6 - Schoop ® 7 - Kepler (L) 8 - Cron ® 9 - Castro (L)
  9. Siehbiscuit
    I agree that McCutchen and Brantley can definitely improve the Twins team. But to make that move, the team would essentially be punting on Kepler. If the Twins can move him for a valuable piece, then an OF makes some sense. After watching a punchless Twins team in 2018, I’d love to have a very good power bat in the middle of the lineup. I love the idea of a versatile defense and roster and those are great components to build a winning team. Normally, I would say that DH should be filled by guys needing days off and marginal defenders, but if a .850-900+ OPS-type bat is available and he needs that spot 140+ times a year. I think you make room for that production. Just my opinion.
  10. Siehbiscuit
    Nelson Cruz has been a mainstay for nearly a decade and has had a SLG% over .500 EVERY season but one injury-plagued season 6 years ago. Logan Morrison had ONE good season, and the Twins signed him for next to nothing. He tanked. I would think the track record would matter in a legitimate discussion.
  11. Siehbiscuit
    Cruz doesn’t provide versatility, but we need ‘A’ list hitters, period. Cruz would be a legit .260/.350/.510, 40ish HR guy. Regardless if its full-time DH we could use a professional slugger like him. Power as a tool, usually ages well.
  12. Siehbiscuit
    Shameless plug warning! I have coached college and HS basketball for 17 years and how I would best define character in an athlete is this: Character is showing consistency in doing the right things on and off the court (field). It’s getting your school work done, being in class, being at practice, respecting your parents and teachers and those in authority over you. Are you the kind of kid that would break up a fight if you saw the school yard bully taking someone’s lunch money because it’s the right thing to do?Doing what is ‘right’ is subjective in certain areas, but for the most part most of us quantify it the same way. Those that consistently display and do the right thing (they don’t have to be perfect) are those that I feel have high character. These types of people are the ones you WANT on your team to help build a programs culture, be leaders, as others will gravitate towards them. Character counts, and those that have it, definitely do stand out. The best news is that it is something that can be developed, but you have to be intentional about your choices and be willing to be held accountable. The fact that these two have had their character lauded at such young ages tell me that had great structure and support growing up. Not everyone has great leadership as a youth. Character is simply making right choices on a consistent basis.
  13. Siehbiscuit
    Overall, numbers for Stewart in 2018 are somewhat misleading. Like a closer (see Rodney’s April from last year or 2018) and one game or two can really skew numbers. Kohl had a clunker in his 3rd start this year (1.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO and the loss). If games are 1 game at a time, his team has won 5 of his 6 starts and his average line is looking really good. He is averaging (per start) 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1.6 Runs allowed (2.73 ERA), 1 BB, 5.6 K, 1.13 WHIP, 9.65 K/9 Looks like promise to me.
  14. Siehbiscuit
    What does being a two-sport athlete have to do with spreading the signing bonus out over 5 years?
  15. Siehbiscuit
    It’ll be amazing to see Nolasco pitch against the Twins 2 or 3 times in 2018.
  16. Siehbiscuit
    Even if he was one of our 3 best, it would be foolish of the Twins to bring him up to start the year. By sitting even two or three weeks at AAA it pushes back his clock. WOuld you rather have 3 weeks of his age 23 season or another full season in his prime? Roster management is pretty important, especially when payroll isn’t up there with the big boys.
  17. Siehbiscuit
    When you are competing the goal is to put the best team together to compete. The offensive holes in the Twins lineup are at 1B (LH - Mauer), DH (LH - Morrison) and the corner outfielders (LH - Rosario and Kepler). Sano can be a right hand bat vs tough lefties and Grossman can fill a gap with his bat in the DH and OF hole. Grossman is NOT a great defender, but when he plays for Kepler or Rosario vs a tough lefty, they can defensive sub in a close game. They are still eligible to play even when they don’t start. We all like Granite, but he is redundant for this team. Grossman has one very good skill and it is the one that is most important in run production: OBP. Grossman can get on base. That is a needed skill vs lefties that makes this team better.
  18. Siehbiscuit
    I love your prospect lists, but I will disagree on Palacios likely position. I see very little and almost NO way he is the starting shortstop for Fort Myers. Both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier could hack it there and even one of them may need to bump up or down or to a different spot to accomodate our glut off SS candidates. I look for Palacios to play at a different level or move positions.
  19. Siehbiscuit
    I thought there was no such thing as a bad 1 year deal? He may not have much left, but if the Twins can milk the last little bit out of him and its only for at worst $5m what’s the downside? Worst case, the Twins wasted $2.5 million and 3-4 starts. If he’s know good, he’ll get cut when Santana is ready to return.
  20. Siehbiscuit
    Correct in that the the number of players picked is the same, but I see them as a team that continually is trading back (a la NFL draft). With the manipulation of the draft pool, using international pool $ to acquire prospects, etc, I see them behaving in a consistent manner here. But its not just that. It’s the specific type of player they are looking for. They appear to be going after specific traits (pitchers with a good breaking pitch, for example). Look at the last two drafts for example and how many of these guys are in the twins top 20 prospect lists already. They are drafting high upside guys all over, because whether it is an Akil Badoo or a safer college arm, the bust rates in the middle rounds are about the same. The difference is some of these upside guys are starting to hit and they have selected and acquired more of them lately than the Ryan regime did. Lastly, the acquisitions they have made for MLB-ready guys have been solid. Enns, Littel and a few others have been good acquisitions, IMO, because there is still some upside there.
  21. Siehbiscuit
    For example, instead of going Hunter Greene or McKay, both great prospects, Falvine went with a HS bat and turned it into multiple picks. It’s not revolutionary, but it was a great way to get quantity. For as much as we all want upside, the bust rate in baseball is too high. Quantity is (although it needs to be talented) more important, imo, especially for small to mid-sized market teams. The other example is the Jaime Garcia deal. We gave up one prospect, paid Garcia’s remaining salary and got three prospects back. Not huge upside guys, but three solid and all three have a good shot of earning MLB time someday. Three above average prospects (likely 45-50 guys) for one 50-55 guy in Ynoa. All I am saying is it appears this regime is looking to diversify its prospect portfolio instead of going all in on fewer high-ceiling guys.
  22. Siehbiscuit
    You give the Twins prospects another two to three years and we may have 5-8 guys in these publications Top 100’s. One of the things I love and hate about baseball’s draft is the high bust rate. I love it because you can get a Mike Trout in the 20’s, but you also can get a Mark Appel or Adam Johnson at the top. Falvine appears to have the philosophy of going after multiple 2nd tier guys and see which ones develop, instead of going all upside, but fewer prospects and I think it is working. The Twins top 20 prospects ALL legitimately have a chance to be major leaguers (no hyperbole). That is very rare in a farm system. What it lacks in star power, it makes up for in amazing depth. Let them keep building in bulk and we will have numerous assets to trade.
  23. Siehbiscuit
    The best part about so many having different opinions is most that can and have a provided evidence for their reasoning (minus the homeschooling jab) and it makes sense. Baddoo has a huge ceiling. Rooker has amazing power and he's close to the Majors. Kirilloff has a pedigree and a great hit tool. Thorpe, Enlow, etc, etc. The guy that I LOVE is Javier. I guy that no one has questioned his ability to stick at short and has shown a great stick so far. He may not ever have the pop of Royce Lewis, but if his defense is much better, it may be hard to separate them in a few years. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins have three SS's (Gordon, Lewis and Javier) all listed as top 25 prospects at some point in their minor league careers.
  24. Siehbiscuit
    I think most everyone agrees with your theoretical. Always try and sell when the value is high. BUT...don't sell when for $0.80 on the dollar when you truly aren't desperate. JDL is an intriguing propspect, but he has some major warts (age, "stuff", injury history and lack of innings). JDL could be special, but we know what Dozier is. At worst, we get him for two seasons (and he is not blocking Nick Gordon or anyone else) and we'll get a first round Comp A pick for him at minimum. Bottom line is team's weren't clamping for a 29 year old 2B coming off a potentially fluky season. There wasn't a market, so don't sell him just to sell him.
  25. Siehbiscuit
    Unless Ted gave Enlow his number 1: "Ted Schwerzler - 1) Jovani Moran, 2) Carlos Suniaga, 3) Jovani Moran, 4) Jared Finkel, 5) Randy Dobnak," the math has Carlos Suniaga with more points than Enlow. Moran is listed as both FIRST and THIRD. If Enlow I'd 3rd on Ted's voting, Suniaga should be number 2.
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