Siehbiscuit
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Everything posted by Siehbiscuit
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Keep in mind, two years for Verlanders salary is while the Buxtons, Sanos, Keplers and Rosario's are cheap. Add in Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves and they two will be pre-arb. Mauer comes off the books after next year and for the chance that Verlanders can rediscover a second life here, isn't if worth the is risk? Verlanders, Berrios and Santana followed by some combination of Gonsalves, Romero, Gibson, Slegers and others seems like the beginning of a solid rotation. If the Twins were willing to absorb much of the salary, I think Verlanders could be had for a couple of C propspects. The Tigers are more concerned with $$$ and rebuilding than his legacy.
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Rumor: Yankees and Twins had conversations about Santana
Siehbiscuit replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Since I'm sure everyone is dying to know my opinion, I am in the camp that Santana needs to be moved for either an package focused around an elite prospect (top 30ish) or a package with multiple high upside prospects. If the Yanks aren't moving for Adams, Torres or Frazier, then let's get some of their high upside talent they have acquired via the international market. Here are four guys I'd like to pursue: 1). MLB #90' Yanks #5 - 19 yo OF, Estevan Florial - this guy is young and is all tools. Currently hitting .301/.379/.494 at Low-A 2) Yanks #8 - Jorge Mateo - SS/CF - also a high upside 5 tool athlete. Was Yanks #1 prospect in 2016, was suspended (non-drug or PED), this guy was a top 70 prospect last year and is making his way back up again. Currently hitting .306/.387/.546 at AA 3) Yanks #10 - Domingo Acevedo - RHSP - a borderline top 100 guy as well. Has hit 103 on the gun and has only been a starter in his career. Worst case, he comes an excellent bullpen piece. He is averaging 6 innings per start, between AA and AAA, and has a 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9, with an ERA of 3.27. 4) Yanks #9 - Miguel Andujar - 3B, I like the idea of getting an extremely talented 3B, because when Mauer's deal is up, Sano is moving to 1B (let's be honest here). Andujar can rake and is hitting .316/.349/.508 between AA and AAA, but has been hitting .324/.365/.543 (.908 OPS) since he moved up to AAA. In this deal you get a very close to MLB-ready starter and three extremely high upside athletes. Asking for the Yanks #5, 8,9,10 prospect would like like be equivalent to asking for Gonsalves or Romero and then Wander Javier, a healthy Kirilloff and lewin Diaz. The biggest difference and not to understate it, is all of the Yankees prospects are a year closer than the Twins prospects I named. The Yankees have excellent depth, let's get quantity, since the Twins can't afford to let prospects bust the way larger patrolled teams can -
Twins Acquire Jaime Garcia, Catcher Anthony Recker
Siehbiscuit replied to Mill1634's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I like it. -
Well the Twins just got Jamie Garcia and someone else for RHP Ynoa.
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Statcast scouting: A look at top trade targets
Siehbiscuit replied to Willihammer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Due to his performance, even if the Tigers paid a third of the salary, I doubt they get a huge return. He's getting long in the tooth and last year may be the anomaly. If the Tigers took on 2/3 of the salary, other a package of prospects, likely highlighted by an A-/B+ type prospect should be able to get him. -
While we would all agree that a top 20 overall pitching prospect that is near Major league ready is ideal, we would have to give up Dozier to get that done. Prospect for prospect deals are rarely done. By doing that, then we are conceding completely in 2017. Beating the Astros is a long-shot, no one will disagree with you, but not getting to the playoffs at all, gives you NO shot. Finding a veteran arm, even a rental, for a mid 20s prospect is a step in the right direction of actually making the parent club better. Getting a 2 1/2 year controllable player for a fair price (likely a top ten prospect or two in the teens) is a very valuable piece too. It may be a small gain, but how much different would this team look with them in our bullpen all year vs Breslow and Belisle? There'd likely be 3-4 games more in the W column.
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I respect everyone that says promote from within, yet I struggle with us having a "we gotta fix the bullpen, but don't give anything up to do it" mentality. We all love prospects, but forget that so many of them do not pan out. Michael Tonkin has very good minor league track record and has been dominant in the minors (12.7 K/9 currently). It frequently doesn't translate to MLB success. Other franchises values its players too and often we get too attached to our own. Hand is an established Major League reliever and hopefully we can get a guy like Curtiss, Chargois, Reed and Burdi to someday realize their potential and put it all together, but how long have we already been waiting on many of these guys? I thought Tyler Jay would be a quick to the Majors guy? What happened? Don't sell the farm for a rental like Neshek, but IMO, a guy in the mid 20's is reasonable (Niko Goodrum territory) is worth helping the bullpen this year. A guy like Hand is worth giving up a 10-15 prospect or two, IMO (some combination of a LaMonte Wade and/or Daniel Palka). To get good players, you have to roll the dice on your prospects sometimes. Most of the time, the prospects never amount to much. Play to win, both now and long-term.
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Over his last ten games, Gordon has drawn 8 BB's. Nice to see some plate discipline.
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Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
Siehbiscuit replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The people that are frustrated by Lewis as a SS pick, keep in mind that this guy has the potential to be better than Gordon. It may be extra depth, but if Lewis has the ability to be a Franciso Lindor, Carlos Correa or even a Manny Machado-type, why do we care that we have extra Ss's? Btw, most experts think he'll go to CF like BJ Upton did.- 352 replies
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Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
Siehbiscuit replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I understand the frustration, but I do think people are frustrated because they don't have all the information. Jeremy Nygaard pointed out on Twitter, by drafting Leach at 37 (someone they liked, but is likely signable under slot), they can get a tougher sign guy like Enlow. BUT if Enlow still doesn't sign, which may happen, the Twins only lose $755k ( the slotted value of its 3rd round pick. If they had drafted Enlow at 37 and he still didn't sign (even though the $$$$ offered were the same), the Twins lose the slot bonus assigned to pick 37, which is $1.8M. The Twins can offer Rookers slot value - $1.9M - could get $1.5 Leach - 1.8M - could get $1.5M Enlow - $755k - could get $2M (money from Royce Lewis deal added) Bottom line is a lot of risk is mitigated, by taking a tough sign later, because the Twins only lose $755 bonus money with no Enlow signing.- 352 replies
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With all the uncertainty among the top 3 candidates to go 1:1, even among us here, why not go with the quality over quality approach? Jim Callis just did a 2007 redraft article and only half of the top ten in the redraft were even first rounders. If there is no absolute guarantee number 1:1, why not go with a guy like Gore (save $2-2.5m), or guys like Adell or Lewis? They each have tremendous upside but also can save you enough to get a guy like Carlson, Baz or another high upside prospect at 35 and another top 20-25 player at 37. If you aren't settled on the top guys go with upside at all three picks. This is a tough decision, but Wright, McKay and Wright all come with their warts.
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Curse words....
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Keith Law On The Twins And The 2017 Draft
Siehbiscuit replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think it's like KLaw said, it's what he'd do. Everyone has a different personal philosophy and I'm not in the McKay camp. I personally believe he is already too close to his ceiling and the projection isn't comparable. Hell likely be in a rotation this time next year, but he may never be more than a number three. I WANT more than that if I have the #1 pick. I like Wright a lot too. He has more room to grow and has competed in the best conference in the NCAA. I just can't be paralyzed by the past or fear of failing. I need to evaluate each prospect on his own merit, not on Becketts or Bundys or even Kohl Stewart's. First rounders bust all the time and I will do all I can to make the best pick I could. At the end of the day, I'm the guy that has always worked on 100% commission and isn't scared to take the risk and bet on myself. In the case for Greene, I have to bet on my evaluation being solid and rolling the dice. As for where I, since no one is asking, I'm for Wright or Greene. If Wright comes at a discount, then I'd go that route. This is a matter of philosophy (College pitcher vs HS pitcher). Lower bust rate, but lower ceiling vs higher bust rate, but high reward. Philosophical differences.- 78 replies
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- hunter greene
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Keith Law On The Twins And The 2017 Draft
Siehbiscuit replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What about international kids? There's no stats, it's interviews and scouting and projection. And I think you are underselling the 'athleticism' dynamic. Defining athleticism is two parts, IMO. The physical traits (run fast, jump high, etc), but then there is also the hand-eye coordination portion. I have coached for 16 years and many kids have one of the two components but if you are missing the other and the fatal flaw is exposed. Combine the aptitude and Greene's pedigree and experience and it is a high potential recipe. But, he could still bust. Championships level teams should take risks, IMO, especially when Twins will NEVER acquire these types via free agency.- 78 replies
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- hunter greene
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Gary Sanchez, C, for the New York Yankees has an unbelievably second half last year.
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Buxton is NOT moved to the lead off spot, but put in the two hole ahead of Mauer and Sano. He gets protection before and after and our top four hitters rake. Dozier .270/.385/.585 - 34 HRs Buxton .270/.350/.520 - 22HRs (61 total xbh's) and wins Gold Glove Mauer .305/.385/.415 - 10HRs - plays 115 games in platoon with Vargas .260/.340/.470 14HRs Sano ..245/.370/.575 - 43 HR - Rosario (.275/.315/.460 - 38xbh's) bats in the 5 hole after Kepler struggles early, but finishes with a solid line (.255/.325/.445 - 34 xbh's) Grossman rakes as everyday DH (.270/.355/.455). Polanco is bad defensively but the bat is good (.300/.340/.410). Castro helps pitching staff and hits 12 HRs. Santana regresses slightly, but is still dealt at the deadline for two Top100 prospects. Gibson's sinker consistently sinks this year and he wins 16 games with a 3.40 ERA. Berrios averages 9.5 K/9 in 165 innings, but still has control problems. Santiago sucks and is traded for a bag of balls. Minors: Kohl Stewart starts looking like a top draft pick after the Twins new pitching philosophy better fits his skill set. He continues to induce tons of ground ally's, but also is encouraged to use his "stuff." He increases his K/9 to 8.5. Reaches Top 25 prospect status. Gonsalves gets called up and starts out of the bullpen and throws 25 innings, mostly in low to medium leverage situations. He does well. Nick Gordon develops some man muscle and starts hitting for extra bases. Hits .310/.360/.460 with 45 xbh's. I've been told I'm an optimist.
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I'm not SURE of anything, but we can't have our cake and eat it too. Danny Santana is awful and I would love to see him go. That said our deepest areas to purge are the DH types and it's possible we can still keep Park if he's unclaimed. Belisle isn't a for sure signing, but we need depth and quantity here. Our bullpen is not good. Why do we act as if Park's offense will be better than Vargas, Grossman or even Palka? Our offense wasn't the primary reason for a 103-loss season.
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All 2016 and this offseason, we have been clanging cymbals and screaming how we have too many DH/1B types and how our pitching needs help. So, the Twins make a move for a solid bullpen piece and cut a low-floor, though high-upside 30 year old DH/1B (which we had previously stated are in abundance) and we are angry about this? Why? Fans tend to over value our own far more than others do. Parks potential is high, but we need to get better and we can't have a lottery ticket at every position. The bullpen is a little better now and the offense likely didn't get any worse.
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What does your *perfect* Brian Dozier trade look like?
Siehbiscuit replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
My guess is less to do with age and more team control. In your defense, Chris Sale isn't a rental. He has three more years on his contract. If the ChiSox would deal within the division, I'd make that trade. -
REPORT: Twins To Sign Jason Castro
Siehbiscuit replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I won't pretend to be smarter than anyone here, but not a single person has mentioned Catro's ability to call a game. Catchers are the quarterback, the point guard, the guy that needs to know what everyone's responsibility is AND know how to attack each batter. Mental aptitude or pitch calling isn't measured in WAR. So we need to stop using that as the baseline measure. He caught the 2015 Cy Young award winner. I'd like to think how preparation had something to do with that. There's too many intangibles that you can't measure with catchers that provide value. I want a catcher than can put our pitchers in a better position, prior to the pitch during the pitch and then after the pitch. If he provides value with the bat, even better. Our pitching staff needs someone that makes them better and I want to believe the framing skills and his bat vsRHP are not the only reason for 24 million deal.- 223 replies
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I'm with Thrylos. I like guys that show command of good secondary stuff. The "aces" in MLB are more than just guys with velocity, but have great secondary pitches.
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- hunter greene
- keith law
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Hypothetically, if Gonsalves had been the pick at number 4 and Stewart the pick in the 4th round wouldn't we all be very pleased? Gonsalves is performing like what we "wish" Stewart was, and Stewart like a solid 4th round pick. Both have a very solid upside still.
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- stephen gonsalves
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Long time lurker here, but needed to log in to defend Jay. This kid has the tools and put up good numbers. Strained neck, fatigue, we don't know, but the guy is left-handed with great tools. Gonsalves has excellent production, but is knocked for his lack of projection because of a good third pitch and "stuff." Jay has multiple pitches that project and has an extra three to four ticks on the heater. Don't take for granted that he has to learn how to pitch and can't just reach back for his 97 mph stuff for an inning or two as he did at Illinois. Having two lefties in AA ball or higher that have promise is a great thing for this organization.
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- stephen gonsalves
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I'm not a fan of moving Gibson. Santana is our best pitcher, but Gibson is our 2nd best. Duffy looked great, but teams haven't made adjustments yet, they will. Nolasco isn't dead weight and should be a dump, Plouffe makes the most sense to move for a prospect with promise (Ryan likes to target low to hi A-ball guys).
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There is truth to what you're saying, but it is theory. Why do the NBA players "seem" to try harder in the playoffs than the season? Why do at-bats seem to be thrown away in the middle innings, but the 9th inning they seem so much more focused? Shouldn't anyone be able to be a closer? All the innings are the same, right? Having an incentive to play, whether you are a professional or not is a real thing. It may not be easy to quantify, but that doesn't make it less real. Apparently, you can't measure "clutch" either, but I am pretty sure I would like Mike Trout up with the game on the line even if the "data" didn't support it.

