Siehbiscuit

Here's a quote from the late John Wooden that I have always loved and felt was relevant to this topic: "Success is a peace of mind, attained only through self-satisfaction and knowing you made the effort to do the best that you are capable.” As I relate this to the Twins and only the things that they can control, I would say a "successful" 2014 season for this TEAM consists of playing competitive games into September and having the opportunity to sniff the playoffs. This lineup and pitching staff on paper is still not great. It's better than 2013, but we were 96 games bad last year. What is the best this team could do if we got career years from EVERYONE? Could the Twins win the division? This team is still very flawed. Re-inforcement that are coming are 20-23 years old and will also take their lumps. 2014's squad needs to focus on individual improvement and progress. As each of them get better the collective will improve, including the W/L column. Optimistic, pessimistic or even high and low standard fans all want wins. I am optimistic most every year because I want to believe my team can win. My standard for 2014 though is to get to .500 ball and be set up for Buxton in 2015 not to have to play savior, but be a great piece to an already blossoming young team.

My criteria is weighted like this: 1) Potential MLB production 2) Proximity to MLB 3) MiLB production 1. Byron Buxton 2. Miguel Sano 3. Alex Meyer - proximity almost pushes him to Sano. 4. Kohl Stewart - difference between he and Meyer is proximity to MLB 5. Eddie Rosario 6. Josmil Pinto - edges out Polanco due to proximity to MLB 7. Jorge Polanco 8. Lewis Thorpe - lefty has high potential 9. Stephen Gonsalves - see Thorpe 10. Max Kepler - lots of potential, but results needed soon 11. Jose Berrios - MLB potential drops him for me 12. Trevor May - proximity to MLB helps here 13. Jorge Felix 14. Danny Santana - lots of tools. Big upside 15. Stuart Turner - Defensive standout to move quickly. Hit tool not terrible. 16. Adam Brett Walker - MiLB production too hard to ignore 17. Mason Melotakis - potential is there. Health, not so much. 18. Kennys Vargas - See AB Walker 19. Sean Gilmartin 20. Michael Tonkin - has makings of a future closer 21. Zach Jones 22. Ryan Eades 23. Amuarys Minier - has potential, but hasn't shown great production. 24. Travis Harrison - not sold on his hit tool and defense is suspect. 25. Randy Rosario 26. Daniel Bard - see Mason Melotakis; not ready to give up on him yet. 27. D. J. Baxendale 28. D. J. Hicks 29. Logan Darnell - MiLB results, but may have limited MLB upside. 30. JT Chargois - mid-90's fireballer has to get healthy. High potential.

Pierre is washed up and LaHair hit about .220 last year in Japan. Pass and pass.

Sano at 14 is definitely the outlier and Stewart has all the talent to be a star, but he has to pitch full season ball to earn top30 territory in my opinion. Pinto, at 56, seems very high to me. Seeing Berrios at 75 gives me more and more confidence.

If you look deeper at his #'s when he does give up runs they cme in bunches. Like @cwmathewson said, "he'd get into a groove and throw two or three really good games. In the next game, he'd come out and walk the first two guys and just never get into a rhythm." He needs to get the consistency thing figured out and he could be a low to mid-3 ERA guy. Nolan Ryan walked a lot of guys too. So I'm not too worried about walks, but the unraveling with guys on base and minimizing the damage. Guys like Verlander, Kershaw and Hernandez (High K guys with great control) are HOF material. May doesn't have to be that for him to have a role on this team.

I do not see a lot of valuable hitters on the FA market still available. Would a trade for a buy-low candidate like Matt Kemp be an option? Dodgers eat 1/4 of his salary and we give him a #6-10 prospect, like Rosario, Kepler or even a pitcher like Berrios with some other low minor fillers. It would be nice to have a real MLB bat in the lineup that is still in their prime.

My only fear with Dozier isn't his physical ability at all or even his ability to adjust. I worry more about he and Gardy putting more offensive responsibility on him than he deserves. He is a solid offensive 2B, but no one should confuse him with Ryne Sandberg. Dozier could bat in the 2-hole in a traditional lineup, or he should be hitting at best 6th or more likely 7th in a "real" MLB lineup. If he is expected shoulder more of the offensive load, I think he will fail. Getting offense out of Brian Dozier is great for this team, but not something Gardy should be building around.

I love to hear the optimism on Berrios!

Fangraph's just ran a story about "#6" starters on MLB clubs. Essentially, saying that on average 32 starts were made by pitchers that were not supposed to be in the rotation. The Tigers were extremely healthy and the MLB-low at 6 starts and the Twins the high at 48, followed by the Rangers at 44. My point is if the Twins get Garza and have a rotation with: Garza, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia and Pelfrey, having more capable starters is a GREAT thing. With Gibson, Deduno and Meyer (even Diamond, Worley or Albers) available to be the fill-ins when an injury or sub-par performance gets an original starter demoted, the Twins are throwing out capable pitchers. No more DeVries earning a rotation gig, or soft-tossers like Diamond being the team ace. Now they are the fill-ins, the replacements and the backup plans. Meyer will hopefully be dominant in AAA and force his way to the bigs by June. Meyer has more upside than anyone, including Garza. When he is ready, move Correia or another struggling pitcher to the pen. This is about getting better, not about making sure every penny is at it's peak value. Having too many capable starters is not a bad thing. It would be a GREAT thing. Now if only we could acquire a veteran difference-making bat.

I think that total innings is not the most accurate way to determine a "tired pen," but innings per appearance isn't the most accurate either. Example: If the Tigers starters go 7 innings at least 5 (out of 6) games per week. Three of those games only the setup and closer pitch as they were save situations (1.0). The other two two other relievers split the last two innings as well (1.0 IP/app). The last game the starter only went 4 innings and 5 relievers split the last 5 inning of mop up duty. 5 relievers at 1 IP each still equals 1.0 IP/app. 15 innings split by 12-13 relievers. Total # of appearences is low and results in a pretty well-rested bullpen. Having good starting pitchers (even innings eaters) will help a bullpen be more rested. Conversely, the Twins starters average over 6 games in a normal week is 5 innings per game, but three times the starter didn't make it out of or thru the fourth. That leaves roughly 5 innings per day that the bullpen had to pick up. So let's say that's 15 innings for 9 guys to cover (minus the setup guys and Perkins) in these mop-up ballgames. The other three games the Twins starters may go 7, like the Tigers, and only use a setup guy and Perkins each game (1.0). This week the Twins used 19 innings by the bullpen that was split between 12-13 pitchers, it may not seem like a lot of extra taxing on the arms if you break it down, but the overall appearances and daily use adds up. These are to extreme examples, but total innings is important, as are individual appearances. Look at the total number of innings that Swarzak had to eat this year due to starters not being able to go very deep. Swarzak was very valuable to our bullpen. Warming up consistently because you MIGHT have to go in everyday isn't getting put in the IP category, but due to the starters inconsistency our bullpen sure had to "warm up" a lot.

Instead of looking at as "Know way the Twins should have 8," look at it as individual players. 1. Byron Buxton - 1 2. Miguel Sano - top 5 3. Alex Meyer - top 20 4. Kohl Stewart - top 30 5. Eddie Rosario - top 50 6. Josmil Pinto - top 75 7. Jorge Polanco - top 90 8. Jose Berrios - top 101 9. Lewis Thorpe - top 101? Does his talent force him to break in? 10. Felix Jorge - needs more time? If this is his list he is ranking these players as individuals, who on this list isn't a top 101 talent? It may seem like a lot for one organization, but guys like Thorpe and Polanco are showing their talents with great seasons last year. It may prove too much to keep them out. Berrios was also very good last year before fatigue set in. The only reason I can see Berrios over Thorpe is Berrios was at least at low A last year and pitched well. Thorpe may have to prove it this year in full season ball. If he pitches well again in Cedar Rapids, he will likely pass Berrios on this list. Also, its exciting to think that someone like Gonsalves (sp?) could replace Meyers on this list next year with a good season. As well as, Walker could replace Sano with another strong season.

Someone on TD did a breakdown of the 2012 FA pitchers, and the results were basically a crapshoot. High upside here, but injury concerns/inconsistent or low-ceiling, but eats innings. Basically, the conclusion was that acquiring more FA and having a surplus is the best way to insure getting production. Aside from Sanchez and Grienke we all would have been wrong about FA targets last year. Getting 3 guys to add to Correia and the rest is a good thing. In all reality, Nolasco should be a #3 on a good team, Hughes has #2 potential (but likely a #4 guy) and Correia and Pelfrey are #4 or #5's. All that said, Gibson and Meyer should be given every opportunity to make the club out of ST. Gibson is now 2 years removed from TJ and may be able to start climbing towards that #2-3 billing. Meyer has the potential to be an ace. He's dominant when healthy and if 2014 is a "get to .500" year and 2015 is a "let's win the division" year, then Meyer would be best off being a part of the 2014 rotation at least by June. Don't hold the talent back (if producing) just because we can. We have likely seen the best of Diamond. Even if he could do it again, he may not be better than Gibson or Meyer. Deduno at his best is VERY GOOD. Worley is still young and deserves a shot, but not at the expense of blocking Meyer and Gibson.

That lineup is GARBAGE!!! Please TR make a move for some hitters. Would the Dodgers take Berrios and Rosario for Matt Kemp? (providing they kick in some salary relief).

The original question I posted should have included an extension for David Price (approximately a deal at $23-25/yr through 2020). In this scenario, we pay for a known quantity versus a potential HOF bat. Does that change anything for anyone? Sano's age 22-27 season under team control (although arb will be expensive by 2017-2020, let alone re-signing him) or Price? I love the idea of having Sano be a life-long Twin. Do we just ride him until FA? Can we afford to keep both he and Buxton on elite contracts? Arcia, Meyers will also be extremely expensive at the same time if they both project as we believe they will. Would staggering the salaries be advantageous? 2014: Price, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia and Gibson/Deduno 2015: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson 2016: Price, Nolasco, Meyer, Hughes and Gibson 2017: Price, Meyer, Nolasco, Gibson & Stewart 2018: Meyer, Price, Gibson, Stewart & Thorpe/Berrios That is how championships are built. Strong pitching. We can't have our cake and eat it too. Sano would be a huge loss. But Price is an elite pitcher that is a proven commodity. The SF Giants won a WS with a limited offense, but great pitching. Pitching wins in the post-season. Sano for an extended Price? I am a YES.

What if the Rays called and say, David Price for Sano, straight up?! Do we take that?

I do wonder about Sano's elbow. His arm is a tremendous asset at 3b, but if he does need TJ surgery or even needs to go the rest/rehab route this is a concern. Find a veteran to play 3B and compete with Plouffe (one-year deal, please).

Does having Arroyo on this team in 2014 and 2015 make the Twins better? Deduno and Gibson (and even Hughes) are NOT sure things. Arroyo has proven to be about as reliable as it gets. IMO, he would be the 2nd best pitcher on our staff (unless Hughes becomes much better). We are agruing about age and him "blocking" guys that have little to no track record and all of our AAAA filler. Arroyo is better than Correia. He is better than Dedno, Gibson, Diamond and Worley. I would like this deal to be only for two years, ideally. Gibson and Deduno can duke it out for the last spot in ST. Gibson still has options. Send him down if he can't be one of the 5 best to start the season. The Twins need to think about making this team better in both the short-term and the long-term. Signing Arroyo doesn't block anyone, because Correia is gone after this year. If Gibson, Deduno and Meyer look like All-Stars then we have a wonderful problem. Too many good pitchers.

A signing of Arroyo to a 3 year deal isn't a terrible thing (although I'd prefer shorter). He really isn't blocking anyone and Correia is gone after this year. As much as I would LOVE to see Gibson and Deduno become who we think they can be, Gibson has yet to show he can be do it at the MLB level and Deduno is 31 and has just now started to figure it out. Also, what if Hughes can't hack it any better than his NY numbers and is moved to the bullpen? There is a lot of uncertainty still in the rotation and we are still hanging on hope. o in 2015 we could be looking at Nolaso, Hughes, Arroyo, Meyer and ???? (Gibson, Deduno)? Arroyo is who he is and will eat a ton of innings for the Twins. Hughes has MUCH more upside, but he could bust a lot easier then Arroyo, too.

I also went with Arcia. His bat has always been his calling card and after getting acclimated last year he will hit 28 this year. Willingham will finish August with 20 and be just behind Arcia, before he is traded to a contender. Mauer will shock the sports world and go over 20 HR's again. He finishes with 21, with 15 going to LF. Sano gets called up in mid-June and hits 14 HR's, but only hits .240. Dozier regresses in the HR department and hits 14 as well.

4 years ago he was the No. 7 propspect in all of baseball and when he came up he pitched VERY well. He had the typical sore forearm, then it was followed up with TJ surgery. Post-surgery it took him a little while to gain any traction, but he ended the year pitching well. He had a oblique strain (fluky), but came back strong enough to DOMINATE the Tigers with a shutout in Game 3 of the ALDS! He has had post-surgery success! The arm isn't the issue anymore. He had another non-arm/shoulder injury to his foot. This guy is a legit top of the rotation guy that has been successful post-TJ and due to some fluke-type injuries his value is down. I mentioned in another thread, what if this were Matt Harvey in 2016? He had a great 2013 that ended with him getting TJ surgery. Then he comes back mid to late in 2014. He struggles for a short time and then looks like the old Matt Harvey in 2015, but he strains his oblique and misses time. Then to start 2016 he breaks his foot. Are we willing to give up a good prospect or two to get him if he's available? He's shown he can pitch post-TJ? How else can we acquire MLB frontline starters?

I agree with the "sign Garza" logic. He doesn't cost prospects and they are very comprable. IMO, Anderson is better than Garza, when he is healthy. The biggest difference to me is Anderson is only 25 (26 on Feb. 1st). We can pay him Garza $, but the prospects are what we pay to get age 26-30 seasons. Age is the reason, imo, to invest with prospects.

"Buying low" is a subjective term. If trading for a "low-valued" Anderson requires a guy like Rosario or even he and Gibson, what would his value be at his "selling high" value? I recall that the Royals were turned away not too long ago when they offered Wil Meyers (top 3 prospect in all of baseball). This guys value is incredibly low righ now, especially for the cash-strapped A's. To play the what if game: It's 2016 and Matt Harvey hasn't been able to stay healthy and pitched only 15-20 games in 2014 and 2015 combined. Is he worth a couple of very good prospects (Top 100-types)? What if he were healthy? See David Price, that is what these guys are worth. To get elite pitching requires risk. Anderson is ace material. The Twins will not win unless they have pitching that can compete with the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees. Buying Anderson now IS buying him at his lowest value.

Doumit and Willingham have to bounce back some don't they? Not necessarily to their 2012 level, but they can't be as awful as they both were in 2013. That said, with the absolute lack of offensive potential I don't see how the Twins can dump either one. I wouldn't go all in on either one of them (like give the catcher/RF job to Doumit), but I wouldn't trade them while their values are so incredibly low either. As recently as 2012, they were both good and neither guy is blocking any one. I would love to see Aaron Hicks come to ST pissed off and ready to fight for the CF spot.

This is GREAT for small and mid-market teams. Teams that post the $20 million can make a run at Tanaka. The Twins have the budget, do they have the cajones???

No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.