Siehbiscuit

Thanks for the laugh this morning. Well written.

If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.

Here are a few of my observations from spending time in a family (married into) of Cardinals fans. This is the way the Twins need to run their organization in baseball. I hesitate to use the term 'best run organization,' because teams like the A's and the Rays, are operating with completely different budgets and they do a TREMENDOUS job with the resources they have. Ultimately, though it is about winning championships and having a team that has that opportnity every year. That's the Cardinals. Pitching: There was an article in SI this summer that had an amazing Cardinals feature in it. It spoke of the organizational philosophy in what the look for in pitchers (didn't give details). They look for specific physical traits that keep their pitchers from breaking down and also makeup is a key component. Their stuff, although very important, is not top priority. Fanbase support: Secondly, as a previous poster had said, the organization doesn't get "emotionally" attached. And like some posters here, that tend to fall into the "blindly" following of the Twins FO, the majority of Cardinals fans are like this. When it was time to sign Pujols, the fan base was split on whether to pay him the 10 year deal or not, but when the organization stuck to its model and said no to Pujols, the fanbase didn't have a meltdown (maybe a very short-term one), but send let's see how we can replace him and the FO did (at least in the aggregate). THe Twins FO may be on to a something, but the Cardinals FO has creditbility. Acquiring FA: The Cardinals sign top free agents or trade for them as a part of their strategy. This is not their only way, they develop within and make trades, but they are not afraid to pony up some cash to fill a void. They don't get into the Elite/crazy expensive guys like Greinke, BJ Upton, or other guys, but they will find the RIGHT player at the RIGHT price. Lately, the Cards have been getting the injured-ridden, past their prime stars and pay them fairly and on shorter term deals (see Beltran and Berkman) and have milked their last couple of seasons from them. These guys have produced. Development: The Cardinals' organization also develops players year after year, in both the minors and at the big league level. An area that often goes unnoticed is their young guys on the MLB roster keep improving. That can't be said about our favorite organization. Continung to improve in the minors AND at the MLB level is essential. Baseball America always has Cardinals prospects littering their top 100 and that is without high draft picks. They have a strategy in their scouting and developing that work hand in hand. The Cardinals are in the same financial tier as the Twins and should be used as THE model. The A's and Rays have many great ideas that we can use, but the Cardinals have proven success over MANY seasons and agai we compare financially to the Cardinals.

I see these two as the Japanese version of Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux. One thing that stands out to me is that Darvish appears to be improving in most areas, save for the hiccup in his age 22 season (injury and missed about 5 starts). Tanaka has seen a pretty substantial decline in SO/9 and seems to have peaked in his age 22 season and is less of a Darvish/Really HIGH SO guy and more of the Johnson-type. Tanaka still can strike out plenty of guys, but he will do it differently, a la Maddux. His walk rate is incredible as are most of his secondary #'s. If I am going to invest ~$100M in a guy I want to see gas, with results. If I were the Twins FO, the declining K rate would concern me. Then I would laugh at myself for being a complete toolbox and go blow all of Pohlad's $$$, cuz our current rotation is a clown show.

Not to derail the thread, but idenitfying ptiching prospects early comes down to scouting. Scouting is an area that the Twins value and feel is a strength (I'm not objecting). The problem is that until recently the Twins have not pursued this avenue for acquiring young pitching prospects. The A's do this better than ANYBODY. Trade off a good looking veteran at their peak value for high upside, low minors pitching. Terry Ryan has gotten off to a good start with the Meyer and May trades, but he needs to continue doing this ever off-season.

The Twins cannot afford to trade Meyer or May, IMO. They are too close to MLB to be moved now. I think if the Twins did offer him a 5-6 year deal at $13-14 per he would likely sign. Bailey was always on the verge of breaking out and finally has. For these guys it is all about the $$$$. The Twins would need to show him that they are committed to him. In 5-6 years when his deal is winding down Meyer, Gibson, May, Stewart, Berrios, etc will just be getting into the arb process. Bailey is a good pitcher that as he hits his prime could and should be our #2 (behind Meyer). When Stewart gets up here in two years he can work his way up into the top 2 conversation. You can trade or draft for young pitching. Be aggressive, TWINS!!

My head says, GO BPA EVERYTIME!, but after seeing our abysmal rotation the last few seasons, I am thinking more along the lines of BPA, as in Best Pitcher Available. High upside arms are the gold currency and if the Twins ever had too many arms you can always deal one for a positon player. You can't do it very often the other way.

My head says, GO BPA EVERYTIME!, but after seeing our abysmal rotation the last few seasons, I am thinking more along the lines of BPA, as in Best Pitcher Available. High upside arms are the gold currency and if the Twins ever had too many arms you can always deal one for a positon player. You can't do it very often the other way.

One of the more interesting things to me this off-season will be what the team does at 1B and 3B. Last year, nearly everone (including myself) wanted Parmalee and Plouffe to get full-time at bats. Plouffe certainly did and he failed miserably, so that experiment has got to end. Why not go after a veteran like Mark Reynolds to play third base until June, when Sano comes up? He can also serve as DH and play some 1B. If he gets hot, he has some trade deadline value. If he doesn't, well it's a one year deal and Sano is up any way. The issues for me are the non-moves, not the actual ones he's making. Don't block our prospects, but don't be content with the lineup as is.

If 6 years and $125 is acceptable for Tanaka, why wouldn't we look at signing Sanchez or even a guy like Price when he becomes a free agent? The Twins will NOT go here if that is the price.

I completely understand the math, so that is not the problem and I am not blaming you for being the messenger of TR's thought process. The problem I have is that after the Twins FO figures out the bullpen portion of the ERA formula (1.10/game in this scenario) the FO goes after guys that could get to the projected ERA in a best case scenario. Correia pitched better than any of us expected, but still fell short. If Pelfrey could have reached his potential, MAYBE he could have reached the ERA that was required to get us to that magical 3.70 team ERA. Investing in higher quality starters is a must. I am not completely opposed to this philosophy, if there are young, cheap arms that are already in the system (like if it were 2016 and Meyer, Gibson and May have all pitched to their potential. Filling in the backend of the rotation with a Correia to give a the team a veteran presence is one thing, but to lead a rotation as the likely Opening Day starter is another. There is money to get better starting pitching, but hanging the season on the Pelfrey's and Correia's of the world to have their best season ever is a poor strategy.

I am all for being a good steward of your financial resources, but too me, TR seems to be living a decade behind most other teams. The Twins could spend more as they have it in their budget to do so. I love the aspect of piecing together a bullpen; a team can be cost smart and get good quality. Finding numerous quality bats that can it .270/.330/.370 with 20 HR's is a great idea in theory. Getting that out of MI or at catcher and it will cost you a pretty penny. The problem is that the Twins have tried to plug this .270/.330/.370 into premium offensive positions like corner OF and 3B and 1B. The guys we have tried to plug in (Plouffe (3B), Parmalee (1B/RF), Hermann (RF), Doumit(RF)) have failed miserably. Positions that require production need to be better than .270/.330/.370. There is hope for the next couple of years as these type of players look to be on there way.

I will never write-off a 19 year old kid, but Berrios' H/IP definitely worries me. His contol was ridiculous in Rookie ball last year, but a 1.39 WHIP doesn't seem to project too well. As for Walker and Polanco, I am all in on both of these guys. Walker needs to work on pitch recognition and his discipline, but you can't teach raw power like he has. Polanco seems to have a very solid approach at the plate and can drive the ball well. Hopefully he can stay in the middle infield. Excellent write up.

I am in the Hughes camp moreso than Lincecum. Hughes still has velocity on his fastball. Getting out from under the NY media market could do wonders as well. I personally would prefer Hughes AND Ubaldo Jimenez.

I tend to disagree that the Twins cupboards are "full" in the outfield. Hicks is extremely unproven. He did great at the AA level, but so did many others that never saw it translate to the big leagues. I'm not ready to write him off by any means, but to use him to support your argument is a stretch in my opinion. I personally like Shin-Soo Choo over Ellsbury. He will be less expensive and can be a stop gap until Buxton comes up in 2015 at both the leadoff spot and in CF. The rest of my blueprint will wait.

I have said this numerous times. Ryan has done a great job at finding talent and has made some good trades that has rebuilt our minor league system, but for some reason during this seond go round he has only assembled a AAAA quality roster. The Twins have Joe Mauer, a HOF-caliber catcher, but next to nothing else. A failed starter in Perkins, that has become an excellent closer. Willingham surprised us with a standout year in 2012. But when it comes to building the MLB club, TR continues to acquire poor talent. Pressley, Escobar and Hernandez for Morneau and Liriano? Liriano's talent (although inconsistent) alone was worth keeping him. I don't think he is the guy that will get the Twins into contention.

I think I saw this movie once.

Putting player in a position to be successful is what good leadership does. Whether it is in business, in parenting or in coaching! Use what a player does well and use that skill as a springboard to build confidence in the areas he may be struggling in. I think how the Reds are using Billy Hamilton will do him SO much good in the long term, because they are using his one elite skill perfectly and he is developing confidence at the MLB level. Hopefully this translates over to his hitting as well. Coaches need to put players in a position to be successful.

The Twins just drafted 3 catchers in the first 7 rounds of the draft as well! On the outside, it does appear that the FO sees Mauer's time behind the plate is winding down as well. To me this issue is rather simple. Either he is to catch and a lot of this is a smokescreen to shut him down at the tale end of a lost season or he is genuinely having major issues. If it is the former, keep him as the primary catcher, send down Pinto to be the AAA catcher and have Doumit continue as the backup. Mauer will also play 1B and DH same as he did in 2012. If it is the latter and he really is having major symptoms, then it needs to be over for Mauer at catcher. His bat is what has made him so valuable. His defense is replaceable (not necessarily within the organization), but his bat regardless of position is top 10. If this is a legitimate concussion situation and not a "shut him down and give Pinto AB's" situaton then he needs to be done as a catcher and not even the emergency guy. One more foul tip could end his career.

In a different article I suggested a couple of candidates to target in FA. One of them being, Ubaldo Jimenez at 5/65. Others suggested that BRef has him listed in the 3/$39M range ($13/yr). For the Twins to compete, risks like Jimenez (not for sure him but as an example) need to be taken. Someone else will give him a 4 year deal, the Twins are NOT an attractive destination for players to want to come to. Adding an extra year or two needs to be done as a risk, as a marketing of sorts to other FA's that we are an organization that is serious about winning. Sometimes an investment in a player is more about making a statement than just that one specific player (see Joe Mauer's contract). All that said, Ryan won't stretch the wallet and get outside his comfort zone.

It seems everyone has a different interpretation of Ryan's quotes. To me, it sounds like FA is a very low priority compared to the other 5 ways to acquire players. The factors as to why this ranks low on his priority list is to me the question that should be asked. 1) Maybe he doesn't like signing 30+ because at that age they are more likely to breakdown. 2) Maybe at 30+ years old he feels he's paying for prior performance, not future performance. I don't disagree, but if he never "swings" the FA "bat" he will never hit a game-winner. Nearly all of his FA signings are for low-risk, low-ceiling (even low-floor) and low reward type of guys. The boldest moves he made was a VERY cheap incentive laden deal for Rich Harden.

I definitely would prefer a college shortstop over a higher upside high school kid. Kids bodies develop differently and keep growing. See Cuddyer and T. Plouffe. I'm still in draft bpa college pitcher camp, though. Twins need arms soon.

All I know is that if the team wants to move Mauer to 1B to make room for a poor backstop, I am not a fan of the move. Catchers that make their pitchers better is very undervalued by our organization. Mauer has a good arm, but how well does he actually handle the staff? Doumit, Hermann and now Pinto are on the roster due to their bats, not their defense. Unless Pinto is guaranteed to hit like Piazza, McCann or another Mauer, I want a catcher that's first skill is his actual defensive ability and followed closely by his ability to work with the pitchers. Hitting is a luxury. The Twins have to help this pitching staff every way possible. Hopefully, the defensive minded cathcer we took in the 3rd round can move quickly or Steinbach can really develop Pinto!

Ervin Santana (5year 75Million) may get the biggest deal of any FA pitcher. Garza has lost himself a lot of money with his performance this year. Garza wouldn't even consider coming back to MN. I would love to see the Twins splurge in FA this year, but it won't happen. I agree that Gibson (#2), Correia (#3) will be automatically be given rotation spots. I would love to see a bounce back from Worley (#4) as well. The last two would go to Albers or Diamond (#5). I would most like to see the Twins spend big on Ubaldo Jimenez. Market will likely be around 4-5 years and a 48-60 Million deal. I think the Twins need to 5 years and 65 to land him. He has the most upside of any FA pitcher and knows the central division. Kazmir on a 2 year deal possibly (injury history). Offensively, Mike Napoli at 1B on a 2yr/$28m deal. He will handle 1B and also do some DH'ing. Shin-Soo Choo as our CF and leadoff hitter for 5 years and $75 million. He will slide to a corner spot and bat in the two hole once Buxton arrives. That's $42 in three players that substantially upgrades our offense provides a potential front line starter.

I was all for giving this guy a chance as well. But he is just another clone of Blackburn, DeVries, Walters, and all the other soft tossing AAAA pitcher this organization has. We need more guys like Meyers and May that can get 6-10+ strikeouts per night.