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Siehbiscuit

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Everything posted by Siehbiscuit

  1. Siehbiscuit
    The A's have definitely been picking a lot of college player in the last decade, but so have other organizations. The A's were the first to take this analytical approach to both the field and the draft, but others have followed suit. The A's appear to still favor the odds, but maybe the talent far outweighed the risk the last couple years. The organizations behavior still is strongly in favor of the college guys.
  2. Siehbiscuit
    Shane, I think everyone knows this is your thread, so you can stop defending yourself everytime someone disagrees. I personally don't think dumping veterans (Willingham and Doumit) for never-will-be's is worth anything to this organization. I would roll the dice that until there is a better power-hitting RH on the roster or ready to EARN a promotion, I am not dumping Willingham. His value can only rise and he is blockig NOBODY. Disagreeing is healhy and natural, but don't cut everyone down that has a different idea or philosophy.
  3. Siehbiscuit
    Also, I think Worley will earn a rotation spot in ST. He was a good pitcher with the Phillies and for whatever reason the wheels came flying off this year. He'll bounce back. Scott Diamond? not so much.
  4. Siehbiscuit
    For all the pitching talk, a few of you made some very good points in regards to the lineup being awful. Willingham (LF), Doumit (DH), 1B and 3B are all positions where you must have good hitters. I understand Florimon at SS, because his defense really is very good. I can live with that. Dozier is solid, not great at 2B. He's definitely not a problem area. But going into the season with only Parmalee, Colabello and Plouffe as the 1B and 3B options is asking for a poor lineup. At least Willingham and Doumit have had multiple strong seasons and could bounce back. Outside of Plouffe's one month a few years back, none of these three have done anything to deserve having the job handed to them. Sano is on his way, so don't splurge in FA. But 1B is a huge need area and needs to be addressed to make this lineup at all productive again. Arcia will improve. Hicks needs to earn his promotion from AAA. I wouldn't be opposed to signing an OF either.
  5. Siehbiscuit
    I love the thought and time put into this! I could see with TV revenues increasing that the team's payroll approaches $105-$115, but TR may not be the man in charge if that happens. I will say, no way on Ervin Santana AND I HIGHLY doubt Homer Bailey gets $20M per year, let alone from the Twins. Great job and it is great to see some of these pitchers starting to come up.
  6. Siehbiscuit
    I have the exact same question as TRex. Landa and Rosario are SO similar, what do you see that separates them? I would think teams value the lefty sligtly higher than the RH'er. Interested to hear your thoughts?
  7. Siehbiscuit
    Because Ryan was the hero and had done well. Smith had fallen from grace and wasn't seen as good at his job. At the time of their respective exits, they were in two very different places with the organizations/ownership.
  8. Siehbiscuit
    I have very little issues with the core philosophy of the Twins. Even doing them the way they were done in the "Dome Days" isn't too mind-blowing. The core phiosophy is who you are. The Cardinals do things the same way that they have for years and its proven to be a successful model. The Twins had a way of doing things and it worked for nearly a decade. The problem started when the lack of new young talent stopped coming. There was a dry spell in the organizations ability to bring in talent that produced at the MLB level from 2007 till now. The starting pitchers that were dominant in the minors and were supposed to be rotation guys for years (Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins) were not good as MLBers. Add in the fact that Gibson and Wimmers were drafted high as guys that were close to MLB-ready pitchers coming out and they both blew out there arms right away and it has absolutely crushed this organizations pitching depth. What was being fostered and appeared to be looking good in the mid and late 2000's took a comlete nose dive. Some of this is bad luck, some is poor development and maybe some is on our favorite pitching coach. Regardless, this turnaround will take time and the core philosophy will not change. Parts may, like pursuing more high velocity arms vs. the soft-tossers of yesteryear, but overall, the Pohlads apparently agree with the FO core philosophy and that building this team from the bottom up is the best way to go. Doing it this way will take time.
  9. Siehbiscuit
    I have to disagree with you, Brock. Once someone within your organization has been the boss he very rarely should stay within the organization as it often causes dissention. I am sure Bill Smith had things that he was very good at and could still have been avaluable piece within the organization, but he would have followers that believed in him and may not have bought into Terry Ryan the same way had he been around still. Terry Ryan stayed in the organization, but his move out was like a retiring CEO. He stays on as a consultant, but it is clear to everyone else that there is a NEW boss. Ryan definitely got out of the way for Smith. For Smith to go back to his old gig or something really close to that would not be a good thing for the organization.
  10. Siehbiscuit
    MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged for 3/$39. If the Twins truly had trouble getting FA to look at them seriously, then they need to make a "I will not get outbid"-type of offer. Something in the 4 year range and $16-18M will be what it takes to get him here. There is so much room in the budget, that even if a mistake were made and he is more of 4.50-5.00ERA guy, the Twins could survive. So much of the future is riding on prospects and they are cheap for most of the first 3-4 years. There is room in the budget, so let's get it done!
  11. Siehbiscuit
    I think the Twins will keep him in the outfield as long as possible, but like his versatility at 1B. Kepler will be given a shot at AA, due to his good AFL performance, but likely he will start in Fort Myers (that is unless he is unprotected and picked up in the Rule 5 draft). Buxton - AA (will work through AA and be a Sept. call up) Sano, Rosario - AAA (It would SHOCK me to see Sano make the team out of ST Not because of his talent, but he is 20 years old and the Twins will want to push off FA as long as possible). Meyer and May - AAA (Meyer is ready, May has to be promoted after two decent seasons at AA). Hicks - A+ Vargas - AA
  12. Siehbiscuit
    Mauer will stay catching as long as he possibly can whether right or wrong, because HE wants to. I do wonder two things though: 1) Would our very below-average pitching staff be improved enough to offset Mauer's offense if the Twins go with an elite defensive/pitch calling FA behind the plate (like a Jose Molina-type)? 2) Mauer had stated in an interview in the midst of his MVP season in 2009, that being out and not catching during spring training and most of April (which includes all the daily catching and not just games) that his hands felt incredibly "fresh." What would an entire season of the most valuable hands in the organization look like if he put on a first baseman's glove and hung up the catcher's pud? He may not return to his .365/.444./.587 slashline again, but could we see a .340/.425/.575 -type season again?
  13. Siehbiscuit
    I agree with Brock 100%. Point 5 being very important, if the price is right. Normally, all on the board would be clamoring about this being a buy-low candidate if it was a trade, but unfortunately he will likely get $8-10 per with his potential being his best selling point. Considering the current staff, Hughes' age and the prospects rising through the minors, Hughes could be very important for this team in 2015-2016 and maybe beyond. Sign him while he's still young and has upside. He's worth the risk.
  14. Siehbiscuit
    If his platooning answer is specific to the Twins specific situation (need for more pitching depth cuz our starters are poor) then I understand. If it is in regards to platooning, in general, I may have a hard time agreeing. Danny Valencia hit .308 this year because Baltimore played to his strengths and didn't ask him to become something that he's not.
  15. Siehbiscuit
    One thing that many posters seem to be forgetting or missing is that the Twins don't have the luxury of saying, "I'm not going over 'x' years or 'x' dollars" and still hope to sign a one of the better FA pitchers. If the Twins really like Ubaldo and they feel that his worth (which is known to be very conserative) is 3 years and $36 million, they may need to go up to 4yrs and $50 to get him to come to MN. That can be said for many of these guys. IMO, the Twins best bets are to get in one guy like this (prefer Jimenez or Hughes as they have limited injury history) and then possibly two guys like Johnson ($6-7M) and Haren ($8-9M) on one year deals. The Twins won't completely handcuff themselves with more than one long-term overpay, if there's one at all.
  16. Siehbiscuit
    One area in its philosophy that I will guarantee that the Twins will not step too far away from is pitchers durability. Pelfrey and Pavano are the only outliers from this philosophy, but the Twins thought they might catch lightning in a bottle and the original contracts were very short, I believe 1-year deals. I can see the Twins evaluating the FA pitchers like this, only based on their ability to "eat" innings. Good gambles: Masahiro Tanaka Ervin Santana Ubaldo Jimenez Phil Hughes Tim Lincecum (Twins won't go here due to price, not health) Poor gambles: Scott Kazmir (very risky gamble. Twins will NOT go here). Dan Haren Josh Johnson Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order: Tier 1 1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime) 2. Ubaldo Jimenez (his "stuff" is the best on the market) 3. Ervin Santana (not an ace, but provides stability) Tier 2 1. Phil Hughes (Very talented and still only 27) 2. Josh Johnson (Very talented, but needs to stay healthy. Worth a gamble) 3. Dan Haren (Proven pitcher that has struggled. Great buy-low candidate. Max of 2-yrs, may have to stretch it to 3, because we are the Twins).
  17. Siehbiscuit
    The Twins pitching philosophy isn't the problem, it's having pitchers that at only at their best can pitch this way. Garza, Liriano are just two elite arms that have found that there are other ways to "skin the cat." It's also been said countless times that when a pitcher has velocity there is far more room for error. Even the dart-throwing Greg Maddux could hit 93-94. The soft-tossers we have trotted out there recently have to be precise to excel and that is asking far too much for most anyone not heading to the HOF.
  18. Siehbiscuit
    So considering that FA is a crapshoot, outside of the elite guys, should the Twins go after 3-5 guys in the bargain bin and see who turns out to be our Liriano or Feldman? Or should we go all in on a Tanaka, Garza or Santana?
  19. Siehbiscuit
    1- I'm going to be the outlier here and say that the posting will be won in the $40M range. The Rangers were the only team over $30M on Darvish. I think most teams will be in the $30-40 range and the Twins will are desparate and his age is the reason why. Ryan has always been against paying for a pitchers past. Here's a way to improve the roster with a still developing young pitcher. Twins will be aggressive and WIN. 2. The Twins will move Doumit this off-season, but NOT sign a Redmond or Molina-type defensive-minded catcher that can help the young catchers develop (in-game pitch calling, old veteran tips and tricks). The think that is what Steinbach is there for. Mauer will catch 100-120 games, Hermann 20-30 and Pinto (starts in AAA) will catch 20-30 as well. 3. True. The contract will be Tanaka's. A 5-year/55M deal. 4. Sano will start the year at AAA and be called up in mid-June. The Twins are done with the Plouffe experiment at 3B and will pick up Mark Reynolds on a cheap 1 year deal to hold the fort and provide some HR power. 5. Duensing will be retained and will prove to be a valuable part of the bullpen.
  20. Siehbiscuit
    NO to Cano! He's a GREAT player, but NO. Tying up money that should be used on anything but pitching is a mistake.
  21. Siehbiscuit
    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had. If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.
  22. Siehbiscuit
    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had. If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.
  23. Siehbiscuit
    A really good defense is still just a Band-Aid for a terrible pitching staff. Our staff brings out the defensive playmakers in Dozier and Florimon, but it also exposes Plouffe, Willingham and Arcia. The Twins OF led baseball in assists. Is that because everyone had a cannon for an arm or because there were SO many baserunners on and the ball continued to be hit a high rate? The pitchers are the problem. If we had the Tigers or Cardinals pitching staff but our same lineup, there would be far less clamoring for defensive replacements for Willingham and Arcia, because their exposure would be far less. Bad pitching equals more opportunities for or guys to make mistakes. Defense is important, but even an elite defense won't stop the other team from hitting the ball hard.
  24. Siehbiscuit
    I haven't thought about going to that extreme, but have thought about going to a 4 man rotation. Getting Gibson, Correia, Deduno and FA 'X' go 4-5 innings and then they are done. Hopefully, they can get through the order twice and not have to see it a third time. Then guys like Albers, Swarzak, Diamond, Duensing, Pressley and our other numerous AAAA caliber guys can be on a second rotation going the next two innings. This will limit the rotations exposure. The Twins still have three guys: Burton, Fien and Perkins to clean up the last two innings. The key is our starters gotta keep us in the game through at least 4 innings. Still not an easy thing to do with this staff.
  25. Siehbiscuit
    Looking at this year's postseason, makes me think about what type of pitchers the Twins need to be targeting. Whether its the Tigers, RedSox, Dodgers or Cards, all of these rotations have numerous guys that can miss bats. If the pitchers we do not acquire cant miss bats, I don't want them! This organization has been down this road far too many times and it has failed. Our best two pitchers in the last decade have been Santana and Liriano. Both guys missed bats. Invest in high upside arms, knowing that many of them will flame out. But to still be playing in October, these types of arms need to be throughout the organization. No trading Dozier for Diamond 2.0!
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