BabyJesusBuxton

This is how you get the bottom teams in the standings to spend more money on FA players - take away revenue sharing for not meeting certain minimums for roster payroll. The current problem with free agency is that teams would rather not pay free agents and tank to get better down the road but they are still eligible for revenue sharing when their fans don't show up to see their triple A ball club playing in the MLB. If the owners are only worried about making money, they will think twice about not signing available free agents that would help their club and put fans in the stands if the alternative is losing out on revenue sharing. If they are willing to sacrifice money in their pocket to guarantee a higher draft pick and more international pool money, that is their choice. Along with this I think a hard salary cap that is updated every 5 years based on a percentage of the total MLB revenue should be enacted. There would need to be some sort of transition over several seasons to give the teams time to adjust to whatever the cap is initially set at. The MLBPA can bargain for what that percentage of total revenue should be to help their cause in free agency. Combined this fixes some issues with current free agency where the big spenders want to avoid a luxury tax and the rebuilding teams don't want to spend on good FA players unless they are ready to build around a core of younger players. There could be some sort of tier system based on salary as a percentage of total team revenue that affects what percentage of the revenue sharing a team can get. This way if a team is in rebuilding mode they can decide how much revenue sharing they are willing to give up for a better chance at tanking.

Barring a playoff appearance in 2015 I think Molitor is in position to be the next Twins manager. He is familiar with all the prospects in the minors because of his role as a roving instructor which will only help once they make it to the majors. I think such a move will be inevitable unless Gardy can get the team back into the playoffs before the end of his extension.

A breakdown on the Twins offseason outlook was posted at mlbtraderumors.com today. I think it is worth the read and pretty accurate for where the team currently sits and includes some options for players to add moving forward. Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I would be surprised if the posting fee is higher than Darvish's. The Yankees have been trying to decrease payroll and need to save money to secure Cano as Nick pointed out. The Red Sox have a full rotation through the 2014 season which would make me wonder why they would post over 50 million to sign a 6th starter when that money could be spent elsewhere. Although everyone knows there is no such thing as too much SP. The Dodgers are a bit of a wild card. They have shown that there isn't really a cap on their roster payroll. However, they are likely going to need to fork out around an 8 year $225 million deal to sign Kershaw after next season. They do have two open rotation spots though behind Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu so who knows how high they would go here? The Rangers could also possibly go after Tanaka as they are in need of another starter. They have expressed wanting to bring back Colby Lewis which would be a low risk high reward signing coming off TJ surgery (one I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins pursue too). I could see them bidding highly for Tanaka as they had success with the posting for Yu Darvish. Ultimately the question I find interesting is this - Will everyone post higher based on the number it required to get Darvish? Or does the highest bidder come back down to earth because the next closest bid after the Rangers was way less than the posting fee that the Rangers paid to sign Darvish.

Agreed that it is unlikely they land Tanaka but in order to save face with the fans they need to make a move such as this. I could see the attendance drop by more than 30 percent in 2015 if they don't improve next year to a respectable MLB team. 2014 attendance (tickets sold as apposed to people in house) will be fine because of the allstar game. If they lose 85+ games again next year there are going to be tons of people jumping ship on top of those just trying to score allstar tickets.

The biggest glaring hole right now is starting pitching. Until this is fixed nothing else matters. Tanaka, if he produces as advertised, would be a huge step in the right direction. If they are able to get Tanaka and sign another quality FA SP this offseason to a 3 year deal I think the team could have a turnaround year. I understand there are other issues, particularly with the offense. I think if the pitching is corrected, the other issues can be easily fixed through platoons, prospects, and free agents.

The Twins have stated that they were well below there anticipated team issued salary cap this year. I believe by around 20 million based on estimated 2013 revenue. If you add in the 25+ million they will receive from revenue sharing they can easily post 50 million to sign Tanaka without spending much of the Pohlad's pocket change. After that, you are looking at #3/#4 money to sign him. Honestly, if they expect to keep fan support moving forward this move would show that the Pohlads aren't just trying to make money and that they want to put a good product out on the field.

Don't tell that to Dennis Eckersley, Eric Gagne, Neftali Feliz, or Craig Kimbrel. Your sentiment is fair and shared by others in the baseball community but I think relievers can have a large impact on the game and completely disagree with them not being eligible for awards, especially ROY awards.

Does anyone really trust Kazmir's production this year? I haven't looked into his actual numbers the past few years to see what changed this year. Is it just a health thing with him? Obviously he couldn't be worse than what the Twins rotation has included the past two years so I'm all for going after him. I just wonder if he isn't a middle of the road pitcher as apposed to an upper tier free agent some people seem to think he is based on one year of production.

You do realize that 3 different players you list as "our players" that we could have were the results of consecutive trades starting with Santana? It isn't feasible to think we could have Santana and Gomez or Gomez and Hardy or Santana and Hardy for that matter. Not to mention the Twins didn't have the payroll to keep Hunter and Santana when they left. IMO keeping one of them may have been possible but there wouldn't have been any way to keep both AND have a shot at keeping Mauer.

I agree with Seth's response to this. Also wanted to add that he throws all his pitches from the same 3/4 slot which makes pitch recognition difficult. I think he got a little lucky on his HR/FB rate this year but even if he does regress some I think his floor is a cheap and effective LOOGY for the foreseeable future. My pick would be Theilbar simply because of his effectiveness and lack of offensive or SP options. Arcia would be my next choice. I had these two flipped until the regression in the second half from Arcia and all his strikeouts/poor defense.

I haven't looked up any specific examples but I would expect some of the stud players drafted either late in the 1st round or later rounds may have dropped because of signability reasons and then the team went way over slot to secure them. This is obviously no longer a possibility with the new CBA. I'd be interested to see how many of the guys signed outside the top 20 picks who have produced at a high level in the majors were signed at or below slot value. Wasn't it a organizational policy not to go over slot during the dome years? Ultimately, with the new rules, the Twins currently have an advantage in the draft and with signing international kids. However, to sustain a quality product and avoid the cyclic pattern people are bringing up they will have to start spending money in free agency and international free agency to offset a poor draft that is bound to happen occasionally when drafting low in the draft. Making smart trades is also a possibility but I'd prefer we keep our young studs and pay them. I'd like to see more than just Mauer start and finish his career as a Twin.

I've reached my limit talking about what is wrong with the current Twins ballclub. So instead I want to discuss what would need to happen over the next 365 days to be watching the Twins playing baseball. Ultimately the questions is what has to happen this offseason to assemble a MLB roster that could compete for a playoff spot next year? (Replacing the front office personal and coaches can be discussed elsewhere, lets try to keep this thread is for player personal discussion) Starting Pitching: I think the Twins need to add 3 quality arms to the rotation, 2 of which I expect would require free agents. All 3 additions would need to be pitchers who slot at or above what Corriea/Pelfrey provided in 2013. Deduno, Gibson, Worley, Diamond. 2 of these pitchers will need to pitch effectively next year. Effective here meaning 190-200 innings, with ERAs in the 4.00 to 4.50 area. On top of this the Twins need at least one young arm to graduate to the majors and pitch effectively down the stretch in the second half (Meyers, May, etc.). Bullpen: I expect a slight regression from the bullpen in 2014. However, if the SP improves and the pen isn't overworked I could see them able to repeat their effectiveness. The core is intact from 2013 and little work is needed here barring an offseason trade. Position players: This could be the biggest question mark for next year. For a winning 2014, the Twins are going to need the young guys to take a step forward and perform at a high level (Arcia, Hicks if called back up, Sano/Rosario if called up). The team as a whole will need to have better at bats at a more consistent rate. Specifically, two areas the Twins must improve on is 1. Strikeouts and 2. At bats with RISP with less than 2 outs. They can't give graduated prospects another full season to figure things out. Plouffe and Parmelee can't be given 500-600 at bats as full time players if they are not producing. If this is the case, these types of players will need to be played as platoon players in order to get quality at bats out of them. I don't think the Twins would necessarily need to add a bat via FA unless Willingham and Doumit are traded this offseason. The one possible FA addition would be a 1st base bat unless it is intended that Mauer is going to be the everyday 1B.

Great post! I think the big difference between the approach you lay out here and the Twins current state is that once the majority of the pieces are in place, an "ace" pitcher is not outside the financial scope of the Twins market. Personally, I think I would rather go after 2 solid number 2 pitchers (the Matt Moore's, Clay Bucholtz's, etc of the world) than one true ace. I feel this reduces the risk of putting all your eggs in one basket ala Roy Halladay this year. This of course is hypothetical that pitchers of this caliber will become available. More often now teams are locking up these players to long term deals before they end arbitration which is why TR is trading proven players for high upside arms.

Late October baseball would be pretty amazing. I wouldn't mind not being able to feel my toes at a Twins game that wasn't in April!