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Posted

Foe those people who automatically say no to Mendez, don't forget that the Twins will need a first baseman next year. Clements is not the answer he already has proven that his entire career. The only other options being offered are at prices that the Twins are not going to afford. Somebody raise their hand if they are certain the Twins will spend $15 million or more for a free agent first baseman or any other position. They may get a better first base prospect in a trade for one of Lopez or Ryan but other than that I don't see why not put Mendez at first and let him have a shot at making the majors. Does someone really think the Twins are going to the playoffs next year or beating out Cleveland, Detroit or Kansas City? They will probably have their handful just trying to stay ahead of Chicago.

Posted
14 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I'm gonna go back to my original comment. They're good, intriguing bats. And I'm very happy to watch them grow. But they are NOT elite bats. This level of hype is why a bunch of people were shocked that Miranda sucked. 

I'm just trying to set reasonable expectations for both the players and the fans sake. 

Hendry Mendez has the potential to be a Top 50 Prospect.

The stats and the above author would disagree with you.  

He has some elite skills.  He makes contact at an elite rate and has elite plate discipline, and his exit velocity is in the 90th percentile.  That is not to say he could flame out - absolutely. In general those, individuals with those skills are the least likely to flame out.    Our closest Twins comparison would be Arraez (minus the exit velocity). The article above uses Jackson Merrill.   All 3 of Gonzalez, Mendez and Arraez have extremely similar profiles.  Elite bat to ball skills, elite plate discipline,  questionable athleticism and defensive skills.  Both Gonzalez and Mendez offer more power potential than Arraez.  

Now who would be the caveats - It would be Miranda and Martin.  In both cases, the Twins and or players tried to completely change their profile once they got to the MLB level or to the Twins organization.  Yes its great to elicit more power but not at the expense of losing their elite skills, Miranda became ultra aggressive and MLB pitchers used it against him.  Miranda completely fell apart - I largely think on the mental side.  Martin appears to have embraced and went back to what made him a great prospect.  Now I don't think either of them are the type of prospect then Mendez is.  Neither one of them had back to back years of nearly .400 OBP in the minors - nor at Mendez's age of 21.  Miranda literally had 1 elite year 2021.  Thats it.  Martin similarly had a good 2021 and previously college career.  You could also throw Lee into the mix and he is falling a bit into the same trap as Miranda,  of the ultra aggressiveness and good bat to ball skills are being used against him.   Now Mendez at this point is much less aggressive than either Lee or Miranda so likely won't fall into that trap.  If they give him balls off the plate he will let them go by rather than creating weak contact.  

My biggest complaint on the Twins from the last 5-6 years is we have lacked professional at bats.  We would often swing at the 1st or second pitch in multiple at bats.  I understand the reasoning, why its smart. We have needed more hitters in the profile of an Arraez.   There is also an aspect of taking pitches.  Mendez is excellent at working counts,  and at this point eliciting walks. Much better than Arraez ever was.   I am hoping Mendez takes the next step this offseason and next year of continuing to lift the ball more without changing the rest of his profile.   Arraez was a prospect in the teens for the Twins when he was called up.   

Moneyball is outdated.  However - the point still stands.  Higher OBP correlates to more runs scored.  Now there is a higher correlation with OPS, but we need to find the types of hitters that can truly improve this ball team.  I truly think Mendez has that type of potential.   In either case I just have a higher appreciation of him than you.  

Posted
15 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know where you go to find a complete list, but I am such a prospect nerd I keep my own mainly based on Fangraphs info.  :Likely not complete but should give you an idea.  I think the top 6 are for sure's and you could argue Cardenas, Rosario and MaCleod belong as well, but that's a lot of names as is.

Connor Prielipp
Kendry Rojas
Andrew Morris
CJ Culpepper
John Klein
Gabriel Gonzalez
Hendry Mendez
 
Christian MacLeod
Kyler Fedko
Kala'I Rosario
Jose Olivaros
Noah Cardenas
Corey Lewis
Ricardo Olivar
Jaylen Nowlin
Anthony Prato
Alejandro Hidalgo
Cody Lawyeryson
Misael Urbina
Patrick Winkel

Of the top group only Klein would need be the only one not added. 
 

Next tier, Fedko Rosario and Lewis. I’m also tempted to have Lawyerson in the bullpen. I think we can protect most players initially but I do think we should consolidate some of the 40 man in trades. 

Posted

Despite the negatives on Mendez that some have posted here ( lack of speed, ground ball rate), success at AA is an important step, as that’s where a lot of prospects wash out. It’s not a guarantee of future success, but it shows potential. I do appreciate prospects who hit for high averages, have low strikeout rates, and high OPS. Mendez is 6’3” so he has the size to add more power and maybe add first base to his skill set. 

Posted

It's a good idea to move Mendez to 1B.  We have plenty of LH hitting OF's ahead of him and a dearth of prospects at the position.  Will he become Wes Parker at 1B??  Probably not, but a lack of footspeed doesn't ever bode well for an OF.

I would love to see the Twins sign or trade for a major league caliber 1B.  It's a gaping hole in their lineup and is screaming to be addressed.  Mendez needs at least an entire season at St. Paul to get familiar with 1B and to demonstrate his bat can handle AAA pitching and is trending in the right direction.  

The only way I see Mendez in a Twins uniform in 2026 is if both Wallner and Larnach are traded and injuries decimate other options.  It's quite possible these things happen, and Mendez STILL stays in St. Paul.  As I said, I'd like to see the 21 year old put an entire season together in St. Paul learning a new position and refining his hitting.  

Posted
29 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's a good idea to move Mendez to 1B.  We have plenty of LH hitting OF's ahead of him and a dearth of prospects at the position.  Will he become Wes Parker at 1B??  Probably not, but a lack of footspeed doesn't ever bode well for an OF.

I would love to see the Twins sign or trade for a major league caliber 1B.  It's a gaping hole in their lineup and is screaming to be addressed.  Mendez needs at least an entire season at St. Paul to get familiar with 1B and to demonstrate his bat can handle AAA pitching and is trending in the right direction.  

The only way I see Mendez in a Twins uniform in 2026 is if both Wallner and Larnach are traded and injuries decimate other options.  It's quite possible these things happen, and Mendez STILL stays in St. Paul.  As I said, I'd like to see the 21 year old put an entire season together in St. Paul learning a new position and refining his hitting.  

At this point the power profile is the only thing that is lacking.  15-25 homers a year would significantly increase his profile.  If he continues to increase his line drive and fly ball percentage - his home run rate should increase.  1st base or primary DH and as an outfield back up would be his likely position or insurance if several outfield prospects are injured or fail.  Combining that with an elite OBP would be a very good offensive profile.  

Posted
14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Interesting number from Spotrac. MLB cries poverty, but my guess is a decent playoff run gets Naylor a Christian Walker contract for 4 years. Naylor looks dumpy but hits, runs, and now his fielding has improved quite a bit. I guess we shall see soon enough. I'm on board with signing Naylor for 4/$80M.

I think you are correct in your assessment of the 4/$80M territory on Naylor.  He is only 28, so I could see him trying for a longer term contract  I think we would all love to lock down 1B for an extended period of time with Naylor, but I just don't think the Twins are going to spend that much.  We could be wrong because they did ask for Christian Walker in return for Correa, but Houston shut that down.  Walker is short term though with only 2 years remaining on his contract.

I see Ryan O'Hearn as a more likely option at 1B.  I see him more as a 3/$30M type of deal, with opt outs.  As TD writers have suggested, Rhys Hoskins is also a possibility and may be cheaper than O'Hearn.  

This is only if we go the FA route for a veteran 1B.  Falvey did say in his press conference about bringing in veterans to help the team win, but that has a host of different meanings.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Chembry said:

 

This is only if we go the FA route for a veteran 1B.  Falvey did say in his press conference about bringing in veterans to help the team win, but that has a host of different meanings.

The question is are we trading for veterans,  or purchasing in free agency.  Then are we getting actual decent veterans in FA or the trade market or do we get to expect more bargain basement deals and Outmans.   I truly hope we will be going for players that can move the needle.  

Posted
23 hours ago, NYCTK said:

No.

I know fans are impatient, but there's no reason to even discuss this really. This sort of uber-hype over pretty good but ultimately run-of-the-mill prospects is how fans get disappointed about prospects. Mendez is a bat-only prospect with a AA OPS under 850. He's not a top 100 prospect, and not particularly close to being one. 

2026 is going to be rough, but that doesn't mean fans should hope the Twins rush their prospects to the big leagues. 

I put the chance of him being an opening day starter at about 1% and that still seems too high. 

Yep……. Great stats at AA do not drop into 26-man roster spot. From other comments here it doesn’t sound like he’s fantastic in the OF.

See if he can stick defensively at 1B as “options” there are needed. If he continues to hit at AAA and he can adapt to 1B……maybe he’s around in July?

Shifting to broad strokes………Aren’t the “upcoming OF spots” essentially taken by Gonzalez - Jenkins - Rodriguez for the foreseeable future? I’d love to see Gonzalez working at 1B as the RH option for Big Club sooner than later.

 

Posted
14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The question is are we trading for veterans,  or purchasing in free agency.  Then are we getting actual decent veterans in FA or the trade market or do we get to expect more bargain basement deals and Outmans.   I truly hope we will be going for players that can move the needle.  

Those are important questions...and we won't know the answer until the moves are made.

Posted
15 hours ago, gman said:

 Somebody raise their hand if they are certain the Twins will spend $15 million or more for a free agent first baseman or any other position. 

Yeah, I don't see them spending anything this winter. If the trade deadline fire sale told us anything, it's that they are trimming payroll and they may not be done. They sure as hell aren't spending $15 million on a veteran first baseman for a team that's rebuilding.

Posted
30 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The question is are we trading for veterans,  or purchasing in free agency.  Then are we getting actual decent veterans in FA or the trade market or do we get to expect more bargain basement deals and Outmans.   I truly hope we will be going for players that can move the needle.  

I don’t know how to trade for worthwhile bats/position players? Nobody is trading an effective starting position player, with control. If they will trade, they make as much or more than a potential FA signing.

IMO, paying $46M for Arraez over 3 years is a smart deal. 170-190 hits/yr in the 5th spot in the line-up every day sounds great. He’s a competent 1B and can shift back & forth to DH seamlessly w/o issue of team wants to groom another guy at 1B.

His face is next to “Consistent bat” in baseball dictionary.

He knows capability of Rotation guys…….,he knows Buxton/Lewis/Jeffers etc……..Keaschall is an obvious talent……..he seems to be a guy that would buy into a near-term, competitive level team.

I try to sign Hoskins as well - it’s obvious he’s declined from his best 3 plus seasons ago (injuries have become real). An offer for 2 years at $27M could be reasonable to him. He’s brings defense at 1B - a RH bat with OK pop - can rotate through DH spot as well.

Buxton - Keaschall/Houston - Larnach/Jenkins - Lewis - Arraez - Jeffers - Gonzalez/Wallner - Lee/Culpepper 

The FA’s above stabilized line-up and cost $29M. ……..spend another $11M on PEN…….. total payroll is $135M…. that’s 2022 spending!!

With Rodriguez - Jenkins - Gonzalez coming, maybe tendering Larnach & trading him with a young pitcher Nets a PEN veteran?

Posted
8 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Yeah, I don't see them spending anything this winter. If the trade deadline fire sale told us anything, it's that they are trimming payroll and they may not be done. They sure as hell aren't spending $15 million on a veteran first baseman for a team that's rebuilding.

I don’t understand the depression & overstating “the fire sale”. Who in any FO, wouldn’t have moved Bader-Castro-Dobnack-Paddack-France ($21M x .33 saved) with starting pitching down with injuries & record at couple games under .500????? Those moves were smart! None of these guys would have been back (maybe Bader?).

Castro/Bader cost $14M combined in ‘25. An everyday player/offensive contributor, I think, they will pay $16M/yr. in ‘26.

The move of Jax & Duran, in theory, got them more starter upside and more years of control. Yes, saved approximately $8-$9M salary in ‘26. Varland move had nothing to do with $$$ whether one likes the trade or not. Stewart was moving a guy who is a constant injury risk for a flyer on an OF bat with decent speed, again, no $$ involved.

My impression is that payroll would currently be $95M with existing roster.

IMO, the infusion of investment doesn’t happen without an expectation to be competitive (spending reasonably) to get interest stirred and give new investors a reasonable opportunity for ROI.

Posted
5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t understand the depression & overstating “the fire sale”. Who in any FO, wouldn’t have moved Bader-Castro-Dobnack-Paddack-France ($21M x .33 saved) with starting pitching down with injuries & record at couple games under .500????? Those moves were smart! None of these guys would have been back (maybe Bader?).

Castro/Bader cost $14M combined in ‘25. An everyday player/offensive contributor, I think, they will pay $16M/yr. in ‘26.

The move of Jax & Duran, in theory, got them more starter upside and more years of control. Yes, saved approximately $8-$9M salary in ‘26. Varland move had nothing to do with $$$ whether one likes the trade or not. Stewart was moving a guy who is a constant injury risk for a flyer on an OF bat with decent speed, again, no $$ involved.

My impression is that payroll would currently be $95M with existing roster.

IMO, the infusion of investment doesn’t happen without an expectation to be competitive (spending reasonably) to get interest stirred and give new investors a reasonable opportunity for ROI.

This is my impression as well.  Most here are saying the limited partners are hedge funds only caring about their ROI.  However, I have seen it stated many times that the partners are families, one from MN and one from the east coast.

The more important statement is that Falvey said in his recent press conference that the limited partners WILL be included in the offseason conversation and have a say as to how the Twins will proceed.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t understand the depression & overstating “the fire sale”. 

For the most part, I don't disagree with the logic of the trades, but c'mon, the Correa trade was 100 percent about $$$$, and there is no way they move Duran if he wasn't arbitration eligible.  Add in the Jax, Varland, and Stewart deals, and I don't think calling this a fire sale is overstating the case.

Posted
1 hour ago, Chembry said:

I think you are correct in your assessment of the 4/$80M territory on Naylor.  He is only 28, so I could see him trying for a longer term contract  I think we would all love to lock down 1B for an extended period of time with Naylor, but I just don't think the Twins are going to spend that much.  We could be wrong because they did ask for Christian Walker in return for Correa, but Houston shut that down.  Walker is short term though with only 2 years remaining on his contract.

I see Ryan O'Hearn as a more likely option at 1B.  I see him more as a 3/$30M type of deal, with opt outs.  As TD writers have suggested, Rhys Hoskins is also a possibility and may be cheaper than O'Hearn.  

This is only if we go the FA route for a veteran 1B.  Falvey did say in his press conference about bringing in veterans to help the team win, but that has a host of different meanings.

Naylor - 28……..50 XBH in ‘25 …… 160 hits

O’Hearn - 31…….39 XBH in ‘25 …… 133 hits

Arraez - 28……..42 XBH in ‘25 ………181 hits

Somewhat affected by AB totals.

Naylor is 3-4 years and most $$ ($19-$20M)….. O’Hearn is older and may only get 2 years ($13-$14M) ……. Arraez had 181 hits in a “down year” for him - I take that going forward and offer him 3 years ($15M)

I bat Lewis 4th and Arraez behind him 150 games/year.

Posted
11 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

For the most part, I don't disagree with the logic of the trades, but c'mon, the Correa trade was 100 percent about $$$$, and there is no way they move Duran if he wasn't arbitration eligible.  Add in the Jax, Varland, and Stewart deals, and I don't think calling this a fire sale is overstating the case.

I left Correa out because moving his salary off the Team for his ‘25 output, & feet issues in ‘23 & ‘24, and prospects going forward, it makes complete sense. He is not sustainable on any payroll (for his performance) at $35M/yr. Certainly a money move for the future - but a good move, not a “fire sale” ……..I agreed that Duran & Jax were moved because they didn’t want to pay them $8-$9M total in ‘26, relative to the younger arms brought back in trade………Varland & Stewart’s contracts are at League minimum so fire sale hardly applies to them…. - right?

Posted
43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, paying $46M for Arraez over 3 years is a smart deal. 170-190 hits/yr in the 5th spot in the line-up every day sounds great. He’s a competent 1B and can shift back & forth to DH seamlessly w/o issue of team wants to groom another guy at 1B.

SD was trying to dump Arraez's salary at the start of this season and found no takers. He responded by having a 2nd consecutive poor season, and now you want to give him a long-term deal for more money? 

Sure, he'd help the offense a little with a single almost every game, but he has almost no pop in his bat, little speed, doesn't walk, and he's barely a competent 1B. Paying him $15M per season on a 3-year deal looks like a massive overpay for a player with terrible knees. But hey, he was a popular former Twin that this front office traded away, so of course we should bring him back. 🙄

At least Clemens would be cheap and can do more than just DH/1B. (still not a great solution)

Arraez is looking at deals more like what Solano used to get (adjusted for inflation): 1 year $5M. It'll be interesting to see if pride keeps him from taking one, but I don't see many teams itching to give him a multi-year deal.

Posted
8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I left Correa out because moving his salary off the Team for his ‘25 output, & feet issues in ‘23 & ‘24, and prospects going forward, it makes complete sense. He is not sustainable on any payroll (for his performance) at $35M/yr. 

I concur that moving Correa was a good move (probably the best move they made that day). 

I won't argue anymore about the semantics of what constitutes a fire sale.

Posted
21 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know where you go to find a complete list, but I am such a prospect nerd I keep my own mainly based on Fangraphs info.  :Likely not complete but should give you an idea.  I think the top 6 are for sure's and you could argue Cardenas, Rosario and MaCleod belong as well, but that's a lot of names as is.

Connor Prielipp
Kendry Rojas
Andrew Morris
CJ Culpepper
John Klein
Gabriel Gonzalez
Hendry Mendez
 
Christian MacLeod
Kyler Fedko
Kala'I Rosario
Jose Olivaros
Noah Cardenas
Corey Lewis
Ricardo Olivar
Jaylen Nowlin
Anthony Prato
Alejandro Hidalgo
Cody Lawyeryson
Misael Urbina
Patrick Winkel

It seems they can err on the side of being generous with protecting people. They only have 39 on the 40-man right now, including Roden as their only 60-day IL guy. Subtract free agents Vazquez and Cabrera and they are down to 37, even before looking at dropping the Gaspers and Mirandas of the world. 

Posted
17 hours ago, gman said:

The only other options being offered are at prices that the Twins are not going to afford. Somebody raise their hand if they are certain the Twins will spend $15 million or more for a free agent first baseman or any other position.

Or they could sign a vet 1B to a $1M minor league deal a week before spring training and make him the full-time starter again.

Posted

The Twins were healthier than most teams in 2025. The current Jeffers, Clemens, Keaschall, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach lineup seems unlikely to win more than 75 games if all goes well, but could also be painful to watch.

The decision to trade multiple people in July would portend more moves are coming in November and forward. The Twins could benefit from upgrades. The budget is not known but it will not / should not surprise anyone if the number is near $90M including the $11M to Carlos Correa. 

Last offseason there was almost no interest in Brock's/ Twins Daily's roster build. People who did respond were grumpy about suggestions. Was that a harbinger of no hope for the future? I'm positive my thoughts and suggestions were totally meaningless but a distraction nonetheless from a world bent on replaying the 1930s. We all know our roster builds are far off, but the failure to hope seems dire. Was John Bonnes publishing a list with no moves a mistake or a prediction? I was a little surprised that all of the writers, tech folk, and owners of this site failed to participate with rosters, but I expect the idea is now dead. As merely fans it seemed like hope and searching for answers with our wild guesses maintained a flicker of hope. 

So, sure, I hope Hendry Mendez progresses in some manner. He isn't a fit on my roster  ......  yet. But, you never know.

Posted
4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

It seems they can err on the side of being generous with protecting people. They only have 39 on the 40-man right now, including Roden as their only 60-day IL guy. Subtract free agents Vazquez and Cabrera and they are down to 37, even before looking at dropping the Gaspers and Mirandas of the world. 

Yeah I have looked at it and have a spreadsheet for that as well.  I think this was my thinking about a month ago.  Highlighted in red are guys they might not bring back and guys they might try to take off the 40 man and slip through waivers.  In Yellow were players I wasn't sure they would protect, but wanted to see how many they might be able to fit. Also tried to build who else they might need to protect in future years and 2026 looks pretty sparse to me right now though that could change with improved performance. Some of the players that have until 2027 look like they will get added early.  They'll need space for some vets especially in the pen so not sure how many rule V players they can really add.  We'll find out soon enough.

2025 40 Man 2025 Rule V 2026 Rule V 2027 Rule V
Mick Abel   Kade Bragg Walker Jenkins
Travis Adams     Charlee Soto
Taj Bradley     Brandon Winokur
Noah Davis Conner Prielipp   Dylan Questad
David Festa      
Kody Funderburk     Kalen Culpepper
Thomas Hatch Andrew Morris   Kyle DeBarge
Brooks Kriske C.J. Culpepper   Khadim Diaw
Pablo Lopez     Jacob Kisting
Zebby Matthews     Cole Peschl
Anthony Misiewicz Kendry Rojas   Ryan Galagher
Baily Ober      
Pierson Ohl      
Marco Raya      
Joe Ryan      
Cole Sands      
Michael Tonkin John Klein    
Justin Topa      
SWR      
Ryan Jeffers      
Jhonny Pereda      
Christian Vasquez      
Kody Clemens      
Ryan Fitsgerald      
Mickey Gasper      
Edouard Julien Hendry Mendez    
Luke Keaschall      
Brooks Lee      
Royce Lewis      
Jose Miranda Noah Cardenes    
Byron Buxton      
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Kalai Rosario    
Trevor Larnach Gabriel Gonzalez    
Austin Martin      
Carson McCusker      
James Outman      
Alan Roden      
Emmanual Rodriguez      
Matt Wallner      

 

Posted
19 hours ago, rdehring said:

You gave us a stat for AA players under 25.  Isn't he 21?  Expect that could make a difference in any comparison.  Perhaps, HUGE!

Mendez is 5 months older than Marek Houston. I don't think either one is quite ready for MLB. It is encouraging that a player the same age as recent draftees is hitting the ball in Double-A.

Posted
1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

I concur that moving Correa was a good move (probably the best move they made that day). 

I won't argue anymore about the semantics of what constitutes a fire sale.

There is no argument - just pointing out the reasonable actions of the FO. Again, Duran - Jax - Varland trades can be short sighted and not in Team’s best interests in future (not huge $$ moves)……….the other 8 guys all made sense in any organization.

Posted
1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

SD was trying to dump Arraez's salary at the start of this season and found no takers. He responded by having a 2nd consecutive poor season, and now you want to give him a long-term deal for more money? 

Sure, he'd help the offense a little with a single almost every game, but he has almost no pop in his bat, little speed, doesn't walk, and he's barely a competent 1B. Paying him $15M per season on a 3-year deal looks like a massive overpay for a player with terrible knees. But hey, he was a popular former Twin that this front office traded away, so of course we should bring him back. 🙄

At least Clemens would be cheap and can do more than just DH/1B. (still not a great solution)

Arraez is looking at deals more like what Solano used to get (adjusted for inflation): 1 year $5M. It'll be interesting to see if pride keeps him from taking one, but I don't see many teams itching to give him a multi-year deal.

He lead the National League in hits the last two years with 200 & 181 respectively……gotta say that I don’t see those as “TWO DOWN YEARS” ……… he made $14M in ‘25.

I may be wrong but my assumption is somebody might think he’ll negotiate for more $$ going forward. His OPS wasn’t fantastic but he did play 154 games …….. 144 - 147 -150 games per season from ‘22-‘24 ……… he’s not fast but his knees seem to be holding up just fine………not really knowing the guys value and stats and not thinking the organization should consider plugging him into middle of current line-up doesn’t make sense.🙄

Clemens hit .205 for most of his last 3 months - that constitutes a “down year” and that was his best year. The team needs offense & Arraez can provide a positive - Clemens just takes up space.

Posted
28 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Or they could sign a vet 1B to a $1M minor league deal a week before spring training and make him the full-time starter again.

I am curious about the market value for Miguel Andujar.

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