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Posted
9 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

I have a feeling we wont have a designated closer next year. I think Roccco (he's not going anywhere, unfortunately.) will go with a closer by committee approach. Even with Duran he seemed to want to go this way, but Duran was just to good to do it.

This off-season Rocco + Falvey gone.  Minority owners probably made it a condition of their money coming in.

Posted

I think Festa spends the next season in the pen just to allow the Twins to really monitor him and manage his usage.  There's no way Festa is the closer next season.  He's got no experience in the role and he's got to focus on being healthy.  But I think by season's end, if he maintains his health, he "could" become the next Griffin Jax.

They absolutely need to bring in a vet.  Devin Williams would be an excellent target.  He's got something to prove after this lost season with the Yanks.  Ryan Helsley would be another excellent target.  He also has something to prove after his miserable stint as a set-up man with the Mets.  Another guy who was lights out in 2024 with the Rangers is Kirby Yates.  He's been a fish out of water as a set up man for the Dodgers.

Almost every time a "Closer" is acquired at the deadline to be a "set up" man, it doesn't go well.  Each of these guys are going to see their "value" significantly depressed.  They will be motivated to regain a Closer role and rebuild their value.  We should target one of these guys, make an "affordable" signing and give them a new lease on life.

The entire BP needs a major makeover.  The only guys I think are locks to be in it next year right now are sands and Funderburk (who has been VERY GOOD the last month).  But the Twins need a CLOSER.  And he isn't on the roster or in the system at this time.  

 

Posted

Who was the Twins closer to start 2019, the year the team won over 100 games? Hints--he had only one partial season with the Twins and was paid $1.8M in 2019. My point is there will be many veteran relievers trying to make good in 2026 who will jump at a chance to be a high-leverage guy even on a bad team. The Twins closer may well have been DFA'd or non-tendered this offseason.

My hope is that a homegrown arm takes the role at some point in 2026 and guys like Festa and Bradley look like pretty good options at this point, but I think it is pretty unknowable who will emerge.

I've only seen three of Bradley's starts with the Twins. His first was very poor and I saw his best two starts. I think he could be excellent in the rotation--a guy who could start playoff games--so I hope he isn't selected to go to the bullpen. I have similar thoughts about Zebby Matthews. If Festa is assigned to the bullpen for health reasons, I wonder if he could be available on a reliever's schedule. Someone who hasn't been mentioned is Abel who looks to have the stuff, but hasn't converted it to effectiveness in the majors to this point.

BTW, the Twins nominal closer at the start of 2019 was Blake Parker who was released before the trade deadline by the 2019 Twins.

Posted
13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

This off-season Rocco + Falvey gone.  Minority owners probably made it a condition of their money coming in.

Short of the Pohlads selling the team, that would be my fondest wish come true and the biggest difference-maker we can hope for right now.

Posted

I like the idea of developing a closer and set-up man from among the “high-caliber, high-velocity” guys already under contract, but who aren’t going to make the rotation. It doesn’t cost the team anything extra and for whoever gets the shot, it would have to be better than shuttling back and forth between the Twins and Saints to make spot starts. Use the talent in hand and see who wants to  use their skills to move from marginal starter to (possibly) elite bullpen status.

Posted
21 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Devin Williams is a buy low candidate and for that reason I'd give him a 1 or 2-year offer.  We know what he is capable of.  A big NO on Pagan for historical reasons and he actually had a good year which would demand a high-cost contract.

Pagan makes $8M/yr, last 2 years, and just got his 30th Save yesterday. Marte stole a HR in RF to get Emilio his save! Cannot pay him $8-$10M and then fret every time he comes into the game!

Jax at $3-$4 in ‘26 & Duran at maybe $8M…….didn’t want to pay them so the spending potential on PEN is bleak, IMO.

Williams at $8.6M this year. His WHIP isn’t terrible - striking out 13.3 per 9 innings. His Walks are down in ‘25. Can’t imagine some Team doesn’t pay him at least that much going forward. ……. he’s taken more lumps since coming back from injury last year with a bunch of losses …. ERA is up 2.75 runs in ‘25 but. IMO, the ‘20-‘23 stats will carry his future paycheck……….he’s not the same guy after last year’s injury!

Matthews - Prielipp - Raya - Adams - Funderburk - Sands - Topa - FA’s x 2 ….. can this work??

Posted
37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Pagan makes $8M/yr, last 2 years, and just got his 30th Save yesterday. Marte stole a HR in RF to get Emilio his save! Cannot pay him $8-$10M and then fret every time he comes into the game!

Jax at $3-$4 in ‘26 & Duran at maybe $8M…….didn’t want to pay them so the spending potential on PEN is bleak, IMO.

Williams at $8.6M this year. His WHIP isn’t terrible - striking out 13.3 per 9 innings. His Walks are down in ‘25. Can’t imagine some Team doesn’t pay him at least that much going forward. ……. he’s taken more lumps since coming back from injury last year with a bunch of losses …. ERA is up 2.75 runs in ‘25 but. IMO, the ‘20-‘23 stats will carry his future paycheck……….he’s not the same guy after last year’s injury!

Matthews - Prielipp - Raya - Adams - Funderburk - Sands - Topa - FA’s x 2 ….. can this work??

I agree with what you said about cost and salary, my answer to your question is very, very, very unlikely. Everyone of those guys are worse than all the players that were traded away.

Posted

If we make the right draft choices and stop drafting short stops and look to dominate pitchers we can save money that way. I think if Festa can be moved to the pen he or Zebby can be closers. 

Posted
16 hours ago, David HK said:

I'd sure like to welcome Brock and Danny C back, or either, if possible.  Solid experience, and wouldn't break the pohlad's little piggy bank.  And I really like Maton.  He's into his 30s already, maybe can be had on a 2 yr deal or so?  D Williams would be a good guy, too, but I'm old enough to remember another certain Yankee setup man that we booked for our closer... 🤔🤔🤔

And yes, put me in the Festa to the Pen camp.

I hear the chorus of "Pohlad won't spend the money to pay a real closer/quality reliever". That may be correct. I went to Sportrac to see what they project as the "value" of some guys on a new contract. I then limited it to guys under $8M so no Ryan Helsley ($13.3M), Kenley Jansen ($13.4M), or even Emilio Pagan ($12.1M!). By the way, they have Paddack listed as a reliever at $10.4M.  What do you think the odds are that the Twins would pay these annual "values" on a 2 or 3 year deal:

Devin Williams - $6.25M 

Phil Maton - $6.95M

Matt Strahm - $6.1M

Jake Junis - $3.9M

Taylor Rogers - $3.5M (his brother Tyler is $11.5M)

Danny Coulombe - $4.3M

Justin Topa - $3.9M (makes that $2M option an easy call if that's right).

They don't include players that are pre-arb or subject to arbitration, so no mention of Stewart.

Two conclusions. First, tough pricing for those of us shopping in the bargain aisle although older guys like Coulombe or Rogers might be available for less on a one year deal. Second, a "real" reliever that would could make into a closer is going to be $6-8M minimum. 

I say we add one decent reliever, plus Danny Coulombe if we can get him. I would investigate Williams, Maton, and Rogers, but I don't think we will get them because of the price and their desire to play for a contender at this stage of their careers unless Williams is willing to take a 1 year pillow deal to rebuild his value. I'd love to see us trade Larnach for a decent middle inning reliever, or even add a real 10-20 prospect with him to get a good late inning arm. Other than that, it's all internal. Topa stays for $2M, and he plus Sands and any acquisitions are the veterans. Funderburk stays, and I think Laweryson has shown enough to get a spot unless he tanks in ST. I would absolutely put Festa in the BP to start the season given his shoulder issues. After that its a battle between Ohl, Adams, Hatch, a failed starter like Raya, whoever loses the 4/5 starter battle between SWR, Bradley, and Matthews, and whoever we can sign or pick up.  My guess is Topa, Sands, Funderburk, Laweryson, FA/trade acquisition (Stewart or Stewart like guy), Coulombe, Ohl, and Festa are the opening day BP.  IF we don't get 2 external guys whoever loses the battle to get the 4 and 5 starting spots is next. If we do, that goes goes to AAA to start the season. Adams is next to fill things out. 

 

 

 

Posted

I think they need to bet on the upside of a pitcher that has never been a closer.

Mason Miller was a minor league starter that missed most of 2022 with a right scapula injury and missed much of 2023 with a UCL sprain. He finished 2023 pitching 10 games and 6 starts for the A’s. In 2024 he was their closer though he never pitched in relief in the minors. The move to the bullpen was a strategic decision to manage his workload and prevent further injuries, particularly a forearm injury he sustained in 2023, and to utilize his dominant velocity in shorter, high-leverage outings.

I am hoping Connor Prielipp follows that path. He dominates with the slider and the workload of a closer may be the best fit. 

Posted
1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I hear the chorus of "Pohlad won't spend the money to pay a real closer/quality reliever". That may be correct. I went to Sportrac to see what they project as the "value" of some guys on a new contract. I then limited it to guys under $8M so no Ryan Helsley ($13.3M), Kenley Jansen ($13.4M), or even Emilio Pagan ($12.1M!). By the way, they have Paddack listed as a reliever at $10.4M.  What do you think the odds are that the Twins would pay these annual "values" on a 2 or 3 year deal:

Devin Williams - $6.25M 

Phil Maton - $6.95M

Matt Strahm - $6.1M

Jake Junis - $3.9M

Taylor Rogers - $3.5M (his brother Tyler is $11.5M)

Danny Coulombe - $4.3M

Justin Topa - $3.9M (makes that $2M option an easy call if that's right).

They don't include players that are pre-arb or subject to arbitration, so no mention of Stewart.

Two conclusions. First, tough pricing for those of us shopping in the bargain aisle although older guys like Coulombe or Rogers might be available for less on a one year deal. Second, a "real" reliever that would could make into a closer is going to be $6-8M minimum. 

I say we add one decent reliever, plus Danny Coulombe if we can get him. I would investigate Williams, Maton, and Rogers, but I don't think we will get them because of the price and their desire to play for a contender at this stage of their careers unless Williams is willing to take a 1 year pillow deal to rebuild his value. I'd love to see us trade Larnach for a decent middle inning reliever, or even add a real 10-20 prospect with him to get a good late inning arm. Other than that, it's all internal. Topa stays for $2M, and he plus Sands and any acquisitions are the veterans. Funderburk stays, and I think Laweryson has shown enough to get a spot unless he tanks in ST. I would absolutely put Festa in the BP to start the season given his shoulder issues. After that its a battle between Ohl, Adams, Hatch, a failed starter like Raya, whoever loses the 4/5 starter battle between SWR, Bradley, and Matthews, and whoever we can sign or pick up.  My guess is Topa, Sands, Funderburk, Laweryson, FA/trade acquisition (Stewart or Stewart like guy), Coulombe, Ohl, and Festa are the opening day BP.  IF we don't get 2 external guys whoever loses the battle to get the 4 and 5 starting spots is next. If we do, that goes goes to AAA to start the season. Adams is next to fill things out. 

 

 

 

What are the odds on anyone paying Bullpen Paddack (he should change his name) $10.4mil/yr?

Posted
7 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I love your optimism

I love my realism. If you objectively look at the roster, one that is a bottom feeder offensively and poor defensively and think we can run the same group back and have a winning record then um good for you. Theoretically they could shake it up with shrewd trades and a free agent or two but I don’t see that happening. 

Posted
4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with what you said about cost and salary, my answer to your question is very, very, very unlikely. Everyone of those guys are worse than all the players that were traded away.

Not sure what you’re saying here? Varland - Jax - Duran are all guys I’d rather have than  any reliever that will be available via FA or via trade. Am I agreeing with you?

Paddack - Stewart - Coulombe - Dobnack made up about $14M annualized in their salaries and two are ineffective and other two were hurt, so moving any or all of them made sense and their flaws have materialized over last 8 weeks…………Getting off France - Bader - Castro - Correa all made sense as well, with Ober - Lopez - Festa - SWR - Matthews all missing time at varying lengths & therefore not being able to compete.

The 3 relievers mentioned right away would all be solid contributors going forward ……. trading any one of them I would have understood - all 3, that’s created a problem going forward.

Posted
18 minutes ago, Linus said:

I love my realism. If you objectively look at the roster, one that is a bottom feeder offensively and poor defensively and think we can run the same group back and have a winning record then um good for you. Theoretically they could shake it up with shrewd trades and a free agent or two but I don’t see that happening. 

Some realism…

They are 7th in the AL and 2nd in the Central in runs scored since the trade deadline. They are 2nd in the AL in stolen bases since the deadline. The offense has performed better after trading four starters in Correa, Bader, Castro and France.

I don’t know how to get a split on OAA but they are 9th of 15 in the AL for the season. Martin and Lewis appear by my eye to be improved. Lewis looks like he finally has his legs under him again. Clemens has been solid wherever they put him. Catcher took a hit when Jeffers and Vazquez were out. Lee is not Correa. Lee is a -2 OAA in 568 innings. Correa was -2 in 773 innings (most with Twins). Some suggest Kiner-Falefa who is -3 in 817 innings. I don’t see the gain. I have no idea how ready Culpepper is for shortstop. His field FV is 45/60. The outfield could be very good next year.

More realism…

The bullpen has been bad since the deadline. That brings me to this discussion about finding a closer.

Posted
4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Some realism…

They are 7th in the AL and 2nd in the Central in runs scored since the trade deadline. They are 2nd in the AL in stolen bases since the deadline. The offense has performed better after trading four starters in Correa, Bader, Castro and France.

I don’t know how to get a split on OAA but they are 9th of 15 in the AL for the season. Martin and Lewis appear by my eye to be improved. Lewis looks like he finally has his legs under him again. Clemens has been solid wherever they put him. Catcher took a hit when Jeffers and Vazquez were out. Lee is not Correa. Lee is a -2 OAA in 568 innings. Correa was -2 in 773 innings (most with Twins). Some suggest Kiner-Falefa who is -3 in 817 innings. I don’t see the gain. I have no idea how ready Culpepper is for shortstop. His field FV is 45/60. The outfield could be very good next year.

More realism…

The bullpen has been bad since the deadline. That brings me to this discussion about finding a closer.

This is a 90+ loss team. I appreciate your optimism but I don’t share it as this lineup is currently constructed. A closer isnt going to create a good bullpen especially since a good closer is going to cost money the Twins won’t spend. But whatever go sign a closer - it just doesn’t matter. 

Posted
13 hours ago, djvang said:

Will they even need a closer?

With the current roster and game planning, don't see a lot of 9th inning leads ahead...

Posted

There will be a lot of DFA'd players and minor league free agents to come yet in the offseason. Someone may just need a chance. I expect the Twins to give several a chance.

Posted
22 hours ago, Linus said:

I love my realism. If you objectively look at the roster, one that is a bottom feeder offensively and poor defensively and think we can run the same group back and have a winning record then um good for you. Theoretically they could shake it up with shrewd trades and a free agent or two but I don’t see that happening. 

I left my post ambiguous on purpose. It could be optimistic that the Twins record in 2026 will be better than 2025. They can’t win 75 this year.

it could be sarcasm that I think you’re a Debbie Downer

The choice is yours

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