Minnesota Twins’ 2026 MLB Draft Odds Rising With Every Loss

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Kyle Schwab - Imagn Images

Since the All-Star break, the Minnesota Twins have struggled to find a consistent footing. Losses have piled up, and the standings have grown more discouraging by the day. While no fan enjoys watching their team tumble, the Twins’ recent skid has at least one hidden benefit: improving their draft stock for 2026. If a team is going to be bad, it pays to be really bad. 

How the Lottery Works in Minnesota’s Favor
The 2026 MLB Draft lottery is scheduled for early December, and Minnesota has quietly positioned itself in a strong spot. As of this week, the Twins sit with the third-best odds (15.3%) of landing the No. 1 overall selection, a potential franchise-altering opportunity.

Despite being tied with the Braves for the fifth-worst record in the league, the Twins benefit from MLB’s draft eligibility rules. Both the Rockies and Nationals sit below Minnesota in the standings, but because each has picked near the top in consecutive drafts, they are barred from drafting inside the top 10 next summer. That quirk bumps the Twins up the board even without sinking entirely to the bottom.

The Race Below the White Sox
The White Sox have effectively locked down the worst record in the AL, even while playing near .500 since the break. It would be almost impossible for the Twins to finish below Chicago, as Minnesota sits over 10 games up in the standings. That leaves Minnesota jockeying with the Pirates and Braves for positioning behind them. 

Atlanta was expected to be in contention this year, but has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies. Pittsburgh has shown some fight in recent weeks with an above-.500 record, lightening its schedule down the stretch and opening the door for the Twins to climb as high as second in the lottery odds.

Of course, it’s just as easy to slide backward. The Braves, Athletics, Orioles, and Marlins are all within a couple of games of Minnesota, meaning any late-season winning streak could quickly hurt their draft position. Below is the 2026 MLB Draft Lottery simulator from Tankathon, as of games played on August 25, 2025. 

Who Are the Top Available Draft Prospects in 2026?
The prize of next year’s draft is expected to be UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, a polished defender with legitimate power after hitting 23 home runs as a sophomore. He compiled a .353/.480/.710 (1.190) while being named an All-American. There’s always a chance that his performance drops during his junior year, but he is lined up to be a top-five pick. 

Alabama’s Justin Lebron is nearly the same level as Cholowsky as a collegiate shortstop and could easily move up the draft board based on his 2026 season. Last season, he posted a 1.058 OPS and hit 18 home runs in the competitive SEC. Many evaluators believe he can stick at shortstop, and he fits the profile of players the Twins have targeted with their first-round picks over the last two seasons (Kaelen Culpepper, Marek Houston). 

High school players Jacob Lombard and Grady Emerson are also generating early top-10 buzz. Lombard is the brother of Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr. He grades as an 80+ runner and is considered a five-tool talent. Emerson has a similar profile with budding power from the left side. 

The Twins know how valuable a draft lottery jump can be. Just two years ago, the franchise vaulted up eight spots to secure Walker Jenkins, who is now their consensus top prospect and a cornerstone of their long-term plans. Another opportunity at that caliber of talent could significantly shift the organization’s future trajectory.
 

Minnesota Twins Recent Top-10 Picks
Player	Pick, Draft Year
Walker Jenkins, OF	5th Overall, 2023
Brooks Lee, SS	8th Overall, 2022
Royce Lewis, SS	1st Overall, 2017
Tyler Jay, LHP	6th Overall, 2015
Nick Gordon, SS	5th Overall, 2014
Kohl Stewart, RHP	4th Overall, 2013
Byron Buxton, OF	2nd Overall 2012

A Bitter But Understandable Silver Lining
No player in the Twins clubhouse is taking the field hoping to lose, and it’s clear this stretch of games has been tough on both the roster and fans. Add in uncertainty around ownership, and the mood around Target Field has rarely felt this bleak. Still, in the big picture, each loss brings with it a brighter possibility come December.

The Twins’ draft fate won’t erase the frustration of a lost season, but if recent struggles lead to another cornerstone talent like Jenkins, the pain of 2025 may look more like a necessary step in shaping a stronger future.

How low will the Twins fall in the standings? Can they earn the top overall pick in next year’s draft? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

 

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[old nurse]

Has anyone seen Will Ragatz and Cody in the same room together so people will know they are not the same person? 

[HrbieFan]

Looks like a SS for the 3rd year in a row. Sure would have been a nice carrot to have a Skenes type SP as the top guy next year 

[Whitey333]

What possible difference does it make?  The Twins are more likely to mess up their development than strengthen it.  Way too many prospects that don't make it or Twins somehow get them stalled out.

[tony&rodney]

Don't count the Twins out. They could still catch the White Sox. They have a four game series that will make a difference.

[SaberNerd]

26 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Looks like a SS for the 3rd year in a row. Sure would have been a nice carrot to have a Skenes type SP as the top guy next year 

Still time left. Skenes wasn't even the top college pitcher a year before he was drafted and wasn't a sure fire top 5 pick

[bunsen82]

39 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Looks like a SS for the 3rd year in a row. Sure would have been a nice carrot to have a Skenes type SP as the top guy next year 

To be fair Skenes blew up his senior year when he transferred to LSU.  I am fairly confident there will be at least 1 pitcher that is considered a top 5 prospect.  Dollander was considered the #1 prospect in January he had a rougher year and fell in the draft.  

 

[Dman]

The thing is even if they make it to the second worst team it doesn't guarantee they will pick 2nd as the lottery will likely change the order as it has every year so far I believe.  Still they do seem likely to manage a top 5 pick.  I do think they will go with a hitter rather than arm if they pick that high unless there is an arm dominant enough for them to feel safer picking said arm.

Another shortstop wouldn't be terrible.  Culpepper can play third very well.  Houston may or may not have enough bat to hold onto a starting role versus utility player.  They could also move someone to the outfield if needed or trade for what they need if all three worked out.

Still I would really like a plus to plus, plus runner for center field.  Buck can't stay there forever and it takes time to move through the levels.  Hopefully a centerfielder will make sense around their pick.  If not then short will do just fine.

They took a lot of arms this past draft which I am excited about, but think that means they will focus on bats in the 2026 draft.  Most all of their highly rated bats could be off prospect lists as early as next year.  While there are some bats behind them a lot of them are higher risk\reward type players in  Amick, DeBarge, Winokur, Young, Beltre, Jimenez, and Tait.  Whereas after the trades and now this years draft they look more stocked on the pitching side.

I know it's always BPA and the Twins like balanced drafts.  I just think they will lean hitter early unless there is an arm like Quick that falls.  Taking arms high has never really worked out for the Twins.  If they have a top 5 pick I don't see them going arm, but will have to wait and see how the board looks closer to the draft to be sure.

[Blyleven2011]

Look how many twins players are currently number 1 draft choices on the team already  ... 

A high draft choice has the status to be a good player but there is always the potential the player doesn't reach that potential  ...

If it's broke you fix it , the twins have a problem developing and fixing that talent ...

[TopGunn#22]

The higher the pick, the more flexibility they have to pick who they like the best and the opportunity presents itself to sign a player under-slot which opens up money to sign someone later over-slot that other teams shied away from due to cost.  

[bunsen82]

40 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Look how many twins players are currently number 1 draft choices on the team already  ... 

A high draft choice has the status to be a good player but there is always the potential the player doesn't reach that potential  ...

If it's broke you fix it , the twins have a problem developing and fixing that talent ...

The argument could be made they fixed their draft philosophies for hitters in the 2022 draft. We will see if the higher contact rate hitters pays off. The initial returns on Keashall are good, Lee has been a mixed bag but improving. 

[bunsen82]

If they have the second best odds they have a top 3 pick is higher than 60%. There is still a ton of variability on their slot. But now currently only looking at 5-7 teams who have a record low enough they could realistically flip with the Twins. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Well the Mariners finished the year with a better record than we did and got the #3 pick. We shaved off quite a bit of our cap space and will most likely shave off even more this offseason. If we dont get a top 3 pick the game is rigged. I believe its why we didnt just make a 1 for 1 trade with the Astros for Walker. But I wish we had since he could have been a huge part of our team next year.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins should not be rewarded for this performance. It is a disgrace to the game.

MLB should and could fix this mess and eliminate any thought of tanking. The first pick in the draft should go to the nonplayoff team with the best post deadline record. Second best? Second pick. Worst record? Last pick among non playoff teams.

Want to blow up your team and trade off 10 players at the deadline? Do it. The MLB shouldn’t reward this behavior though. They need to create a system that makes winning matter and every game matter. It is a pretty easy fix.

[DocBauer]

A strange dichotomy for sure. You don't want the Twins to lose...but...you kinda don't mind if they lose and keep up their opportunity for a top 5 pick while at the same time wanting to see the younger players perform well.

 

[gman]

I think the Twins will find it tough to finish outside the 4-5 range. I don't think they can finish 1-2 but I doubt they get as low(high?) as #6. So next year maybe a lot about watching college ball and following draft picks. I wonder where they finish in the supplemental rounds.

[USAFChief]

I would have thought TD would have more self respect and respect for its readers than to stoop to this level.

There is nothing positive about gutting your team, running out an embarrassing collection of minor league dreck while charging full prices. Nothing.

If you want to point to draft position after it's known, great. 

Cheering for losses now? Wow.

 

[glunn]

I have little faith in the Twins' ability to develop top picks into star players and to keep them healthy.

[glunn]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I would have thought TD would have more self respect and respect for its readers than to stoop to this level.

There is nothing positive about gutting your team, running out an embarrassing collection of minor league dreck while charging full prices. Nothing.

If you want to point to draft position after it's known, great. 

Cheering for losses now? Wow.

 

It seems to me that this is more a matter of seeing a potential silver lining than cheering for losses. I still root for wins, but after a loss I console myself with hopes of a better draft pick.

Is it OK to cheer for Rocco to not miss any time due to illness? So long as Rocco is in the clubhouse I expect that the losses will take care of themselves. 🙂

Also, it seems to me that this is a good time to preview the young prospects, knowing that this might increase the losses during the balance of a lost season. Ideally, this will occur in games against teams that are out of contention so that it does not affect the playoff races.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

15 minutes ago, glunn said:

I have little faith in the Twins' ability to develop top picks into star players and to keep them healthy.

100%.  They are 1ish (Buxton) for six plus one TBD and zero for five under Falvey/Rocco.  There is no factual data to support the idea that a top pick will in any way legitimately move the dial for this franchise while Rocco is in the dugout.  Zilch.  Nada. 

 

[Sjoski]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The first pick in the draft should go to the nonplayoff team with the best post deadline record.

No thinking outside the box allowed in MLB! 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Pale Hose were not eligible for the lottery last year because they had paid in to the revenue sharing and tanked the year prior. As this is 3 years in a row, why would they become eligible again?

[TNtwins85]

On 8/28/2025 at 12:38 PM, jorgenswest said:

The Twins should not be rewarded for this performance. It is a disgrace to the game.

MLB should and could fix this mess and eliminate any thought of tanking. The first pick in the draft should go to the nonplayoff team with the best post deadline record. Second best? Second pick. Worst record? Last pick among non playoff teams.

Want to blow up your team and trade off 10 players at the deadline? Do it. The MLB shouldn’t reward this behavior though. They need to create a system that makes winning matter and every game matter. It is a pretty easy fix.

Can we stop with this word “tanking” please. The definition of tanking in sports is to deliberately lose or fail to finish a game or season in this context. Teams in MLB are not ”tanking” in any sense of the word. Especially in MLB where there is almost never a consensus player in the draft who will change the fortunes of a team immediately. A-Rod, Skenes, Harper and Strasberg are probably the closest thing to what would be described as such. Yet that didn’t happen. One guy does not make you a contender in baseball. In MLB and NFL it’s all about number of picks and number of high picks. Can’t trade picks in MLB per se. Unlike the NFL in MLB it’s all about development. Are certain owners handicapping their teams? Of course(Pittsburgh). Are certain franchises inept and the analytics part of the game? Yes(Rockies) Are particular franchises a straight up mess? Absolutely( Miami, A’s, White Sox). But are Major League Baseball teams “TANKING” as per the definition? NO!!! Anyone that has ever played competitive baseball at any meaningful competitive level above HIgh School knows there is way too much at stake for a team to “tank”. Tanking is a buzz word put into our vocabularies by high up MLB people to create a talking point about tanking in order for talking heads to spew it about anytime a terrible team does bad. Despite being hamstrung by the Pohlads this team was built to win. As good as the team should have been they severely underperformed. What gets you the most at the trade deadline? Pitching. What did the Twins have? Pitching. Along with a handful of pending FA’s. Like it or not this team needed a shakeup. You can’t trade the hitters that are underperforming. They have no value and you need them. What did they have? In house developed bullpen arms. Like it or not they believe they can do that again and they stocked up on arms to do that. Are the Twins gonna sign Ryan and Ober and Lopez to extensions past they’re contracts? No! Logic tells you to load up on arms for the foreseeable future. The Twins are not gonna sign a big arm. Makes no sense to them. Complain about it all you want and complain about it if they trade Ryan or Lopez but it all makes sense whether you like it or not. But they are absolutely not “Tanking”. They’re not in “rebuild” mode. They’re not trying to do any of that. For what it’s worth the white Sox from last year didn’t “tank”. They’re development of all those big time prospects failed miserably. What were they to do? Hold onto those guys for the draft pick? Even the Sox know that is stupid. The Angels are the best example. They should have traded Ohtani and Trout when they could have. Why? Because 5 prospects are better than one. They could have built half a team with the prospects they could have got for those two. What are they now? Mired in mediocrity with a Mike Trout who can barely play 100 games and an absolute shell of what once was. Ohtani? Well, he haunts that team from across town.  “Tanking” is an NFL and NBA term because those leagues operate much different. In baseball if teams were to tru ally “tank” it would eventually catch up with even the owners. And it would never fly with the MLBPA. It’s simply a word used by the MLBPA to get its veterans paid and it’s a lever to get fans up in arms repeating a word that’s continually repeated to them. 

[jorgenswest]

10 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Can we stop with this word “tanking” please.

Was this directed at me? I don’t believe I have ever used the word tanking or implied that players were tanking in any way. I didn’t in that comment. I certainly don’t believe for a second the players are tanking.

I also believe what the owners and front office did at the deadline was a disgrace to the game. They traded their top 5 relievers, 4 position players among their top 8 in first half plate appearances and a starter with the second most innings pitched on the team. I get trading players on expiring contracts but they went way beyond that and it impacted their ability to compete this year and the next few. They should not be rewarded in the draft for their decision to trade off 40% of the roster.

I also believe that the players on the current roster have fought their tails off. I believe the coaching staff is trying to win every game. Many of these players have worked for years in the minors to get this opportunity. It was awesome to see Fitzgerald’s first hit and home run. The Gasper game was special. Hatch may have jump started a career as a reliever.

If my opening sentence implied that the performance of the players is a disgrace it is far from what I intended and I regret that it was taken that way. I would hope my focus in my comment on the blow up of the team trading 10 players would have made it clear that it is the decisions of the front office and  owners that I can’t respect.

[TNtwins85]

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Was this directed at me? I don’t believe I have ever used the word tanking or implied that players were tanking in any way. I didn’t in that comment. I certainly don’t believe for a second the players are tanking.

I also believe what the owners and front office did at the deadline was a disgrace to the game. They traded their top 5 relievers, 4 position players among their top 8 in first half plate appearances and a starter with the second most innings pitched on the team. I get trading players on expiring contracts but they went way beyond that and it impacted their ability to compete this year and the next few. They should not be rewarded in the draft for their decision to trade off 40% of the roster.

I also believe that the players on the current roster have fought their tails off. I believe the coaching staff is trying to win every game. Many of these players have worked for years in the minors to get this opportunity. It was awesome to see Fitzgerald’s first hit and home run. The Gasper game was special. Hatch may have jump started a career as a reliever.

If my opening sentence implied that the performance of the players is a disgrace it is far from what I intended and I regret that it was taken that way. I would hope my focus in my comment on the blow up of the team trading 10 players would have made it clear that it is the decisions of the front office and  owners that I can’t respect.

I’m sorry for rambling on and it was not directly pointed towards you. I assure you. I didn’t intend on blowing you up but this word tanking and the implications of what that means are so far from what is going on. This team was built to be highly competitive this year coming off a disappointing collapse. This should have been done last offseason but that would have illicitly drawn the same outrage. Instead they ran it back and even got the Pohlads to throw in a few bucks to sign Bader and Coulombe. All in all this team was expected to win anywhere in the realm of 85-90 games. What happened? All aspects of this team failed to perform. With the deadline being what it is the Twins had bullets that other teams wanted. Did they need to trade some of them? No. Did they get value? Absolutely. They got value for guys that were tradeable. That’s the key word. “Tanking” and 40% of the roster were key phrases after. Let’s go over all this.
Correa was massively overpaid as all FA contracts present. His defense is showing signs of slipping and he simply struggled to hit this year. The Twins were lucky to get out of that. They can’t afford to play in that end of the pool. Duran- great value. They got 2 top 100 prospects just like they stated. Whether anyone likes it this is massive value for a RP. Paddack- impending FA. Gotta get something for him. Bader- impending FA. Same as Paddack. Coulombe- impending FA. Castro- impending FA. Stewart- head scratcher but with his history unload him for something before he gets hurt…. Which he did. Jax- wanted out. Got good value for a guy wanting out. Varland- a head scratcher but you essentially got 1 solid OF no matter what anyone thinks and a good SP prospect for an almost 28yo solid RP. Good value. France- impending FA- a throw in with Varland that probably got a better prospect in Roden. Really they traded 38.5% of the roster and they were gonna already trade impending FA’s which constituted 19.2% of the roster. So really what people are mad about is 19.3% of the roster. Why have we heard 40%? Cause it gets people more riled up. We can be mad about the whole situation but to overstate what actually happened is foolish and childish. Nobody is tanking. The Twins are not rebuilding. As much as everyone hates Falvey what was he to do? Everyone complains about what he did but what was the solution? Run it back again? The owners and FO put themselves in this spot by A. Not investing after ‘23 and B. Not doing anything at the last 2 deadlines or shaking up the core last offseason. This was inevitable if you look at it logically. Saying the Twins don’t deserve they’re draft spot because they did what they needed to do is so shortsighted and based out of emotion and not logic. They’re not “tanking” because that’s impossible and is just an inflammatory word meant to drive buzz for the MLBPA. When people say that word they’re falling into the trap of being inflammatory.

 

[HrbieFan]

On 8/28/2025 at 7:53 AM, SaberNerd said:

Still time left. Skenes wasn't even the top college pitcher a year before he was drafted and wasn't a sure fire top 5 pick

I did not realize that. Thanks