Twins 4, Yankees 1: Snarling and Hurling

[Nashvilletwin]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Robust, but the return will be for a 1-season, expiring contract pitcher.

Bets?

[Mike Sixel]

1-2 against a good team on the road. That's what most teams do. 

[jccracraft]

I enjoy that bullpen pitch count. Looks like the spreadsheet is missing 70 Adams pitches from Tuesday. 

Separately, I've been kind of watching the players we traded away. A spreadsheet on that would be interesting. 

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

wins are not the stat they once were, however what if Joe stays hot and gets to say 16-5 with a sub 2.9 ERA.   Does he get serious attention for Cy Young?

I think he'd finish 4th in voting if the season ended today behind Skubal, Crochet and Hunter Brown. But it's still pretty close for that #2 spot. Skubal is a bit ahead of the others.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I love Ryan and Lopez as much as the next guy.  They are both legit #1s and fun to cheer for as well.  It would be great if we built around them.

But that’s not the reality.  Why?

1. They simply are going to cost too much money.  This team is in cash preservation mode. Period.

2. We have control for two more years. But in all likelihood there is not going to be much baseball, in any, played in the second of those two years.  There is absolutely no chance we have the financial resources to resign either of them in 2028.  Zero. So our control - and expected service - is really only one year 

3. We will get a king’s ransom for each of them this offseason - probably more than we could’ve got this past trade deadline.   Those players will be instrumental in building an exciting young new core of cheap, controllable players for a 2028-2030 run - which is the business model the Twins are now (forcibly) pursuing.

4. A new CBA coupled with a lower controllable payroll and an exciting group of emerging talents is EXACTLY the situation the Pohlads are trying to create over the next two/three years in order to effect a sale at a higher price.

Sorry, but Ryan and Lopez will be moved during the offseason. Sad, but in all likelihood, it’s the way things will be. 

Lopez will likely not be moved.   You can't be running a 40 million dollar team.    As to Ryan I am conflicted.  Most likely the Twins will be competitive in the 2027 to 2028 time period.  If you truly want to build up the prospects and hope luck, and your research is on your side and that you create a truly dominant young team,  that will give you a 3 year window from 2028 to 2030 you could.   The haul would be quite large.  Duran was worth 25 in the trade calculator,  Ryan is worth 68.  Now some of the value is getting used in July and August.   My argument would be if he ends the season strong, I could actually see the haul being larger than at the trade deadline.  It would either have to be headlined by a top 5 prospect,  or 4-5 pretty good prospects.   

Twins generally try to put out competitive teams though,  so maybe we do keep Ryan and try to rebuild the bullpen.   I have no idea what Falvey or the Pohlads are thinking, or if the the capital injection will actually help the long term finances of the Twins.   

[jkcarew]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ryan is going to return an absolute HAUL this off-season. 

The sad part is, the org has us conditioned to almost HOPE for a trade (as opposed to letting him walk after 2027). If he keeps this up, history tells us that there’s zero chance the Twins pay the price to win the free agent auction. You can hope for an extension, but that ship has sailed. As long as he’s healthy, he has zero motivation to extend.

So fun to watch pitch.

[LA Vikes Fan]

For those of you convinced Ryan and/or Lopez are being traded this offseason, I think it's way too early to tell. The first thing we need to know is who are the two new limited partner groups, how much are they putting in, and what power will they have - are they simply passive investors with no power or influence, private equity guys looking to squeeze and sell, fanboys looking to get reflected glory off of owning a pro team, or guys with a runway to eventually own the team over time. The Pohlad statement is pretty ambiguous. One scenario is this cash infusion allows the team to stay competitive on payroll starting next season when they actually have the money or maybe is used to buy out family members who don't care about the team and just want their money out. There are a thousand scenarios and at least I don't have enough information to know what this may play. I'd love to see the documents and know the investing players; that would tell me a lot. I'm not particularly optimistic, but I'll withhold judgment until I know more.  

Getting back to Ryan and Lopez, the smart money play is to keep them, not trade them. You have two high-value assets at below market prices. Those are the assets you keep. They also make the team more competitive, puts more butts in the seats, increases your cash flow, and makes the team more valuable. One strategy would to be to sell off a portion of the team and the player roster to solve your short term cash flow issues, reduce outstanding debt, and/or buy out recalcitrant family members. You can then rebuild from there in a way that increases cash flow and team value and justifies the investment by the new limited partner groups. I've no idea if this is what's actually intended but it makes a lot of sense to me from a business perspective. One thing I am pretty confident of though is that future cash flow and spending has been discussed in excruciating detail between current ownership in the new investors and that there is a plan. I'm also confident that plan convinces investors that the franchise will be worth more in three to five years than it is now otherwise they would not invest, especially since they're not getting all of the team as limited partners. To me at least, keeping Ryan and Lopez would be of the strategy most likely to increase franchise value and thus keeping them makes the most business sense.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

For those of you convinced Ryan and/or Lopez are being traded this offseason, I think it's way too early to tell. The first thing we need to know is who are the two new limited partner groups, how much are they putting in, and what power will they have - are they simply passive investors with no power or influence, private equity guys looking to squeeze and sell, fanboys looking to get reflected glory off of owning a pro team, or guys with a runway to eventually own the team over time. The Pohlad statement is pretty ambiguous. One scenario is this cash infusion allows the team to stay competitive on payroll starting next season when they actually have the money or maybe is used to buy out family members who don't care about the team and just want their money out. There are a thousand scenarios and at least I don't have enough information to know what this may play. I'd love to see the documents and know the investing players; that would tell me a lot. I'm not particularly optimistic, but I'll withhold judgment until I know more.  

Getting back to Ryan and Lopez, the smart money play is to keep them, not trade them. You have two high-value assets at below market prices. Those are the assets you keep. They also make the team more competitive, puts more butts in the seats, increases your cash flow, and makes the team more valuable. One strategy would to be to sell off a portion of the team and the player roster to solve your short term cash flow issues, reduce outstanding debt, and/or buy out recalcitrant family members. You can then rebuild from there in a way that increases cash flow and team value and justifies the investment by the new limited partner groups. I've no idea if this is what's actually intended but it makes a lot of sense to me from a business perspective. One thing I am pretty confident of though is that future cash flow and spending has been discussed in excruciating detail between current ownership in the new investors and that there is a plan. I'm also confident that plan convinces investors that the franchise will be worth or in five years than it is now otherwise they would not invest, especially since they're not getting all of the team as limited partners. To me at least, keeping Ryan and Lopez would be of the strategy most likely to increase franchise value and thus keeping them makes the most business sense.

How can it be worth more if they are losing money every year as some here claim? 

I think, given these owners, the most likely path is the cheapest team possible, that still gets them revenue sharing. 

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I hope you are right, but it would not surprise if either or both Ryan and Lopez are traded this offseason, and the team completes its rebuild by also dealing Buxton if he approves. The Twins DO have the potential for a solid and possibly strong starting pitching rotation next year, with a lot of young arms depth. But their success depends on Larnach, Wallner, and Lewis to get better. And for the youth movement to come through with Keaschall, Jenkins, EROD, Culpepper, and the starters they received by trade.

Haven't you/we watched enough of Larnach and Wallner to see what they are... slow, poor defense, low contact hitters. Other than 23, Lewis has been inconsistent at the plate and injury prone. It will be another long season next year if they are counting on all three to be a big part of the future.

[LA Vikes Fan]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How can it be worth more if they are losing money every year as some here claim? 

I think, given these owners, the most likely path is the cheapest team possible, that still gets them revenue sharing. 

I don't think revenue sharing is enough to get you profitable. For this team to make money, they need to draw 2-2.5 million plus and have a decent TV deal. They can't draw that amount with a lousy team so I think they have to have a competitive team to be profitable. This isn't LA where you can still draw 3 million fans to an average/mediocre team. Keeping Ryan and Lopez gets butts in the seats.

The TV piece is a real problem. That part of the business has changed radically in the last couple of years and is killing this and several other teams. Losing that $55 million annual Diamond Sports payment put a huge hole in their cash flow, and I doubt if they collected more than $10 – 15 million with their direct to consumer model. The only hope there is either that MLB puts together a consortium of teams and sells the content to a provider like Amazon which gives each of the teams a better payout, or that there is some form of revenue-sharing between TV markets and everyone else. Good luck on the latter, I just don't think that's gonna happen. For that matter, a salary cap/salary floor would help a lot to make teams like the Twins competitive but I don't think that's gonna happen either, at least not without a significant work stoppage 2027. By the way, I think that's exactly where were headed.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I love Ryan and Lopez as much as the next guy.  They are both legit #1s and fun to cheer for as well.  It would be great if we built around them.

But that’s not the reality.  Why?

1. They simply are going to cost too much money.  This team is in cash preservation mode. Period.

2. We have control for two more years. But in all likelihood there is not going to be much baseball, in any, played in the second of those two years.  There is absolutely no chance we have the financial resources to resign either of them in 2028.  Zero. So our control - and expected service - is really only one year 

3. We will get a king’s ransom for each of them this offseason - probably more than we could’ve got this past trade deadline.   Those players will be instrumental in building an exciting young new core of cheap, controllable players for a 2028-2030 run - which is the business model the Twins are now (forcibly) pursuing.

4. A new CBA coupled with a lower controllable payroll and an exciting group of emerging talents is EXACTLY the situation the Pohlads are trying to create over the next two/three years in order to effect a sale at a higher price.

Sorry, but Ryan and Lopez will be moved during the offseason. Sad, but in all likelihood, it’s the way things will be. 

They are both under team control thru 27. Both are steals,  if they were on the open market I would agree.

#2 is an owners choice, that's why yesterday's news was depressing as all hell. These two guys are steals compared to other SP putting up similar numbers.

They could and should hold onto them. If they are not in the 2027 playoff hunt trade them at that deadline. They could take a page from the Brewers playbook. They seem to know what they're doing. 

Finally, prospects are fine, but maybe draft better and build the farm system through it. Trading Ryan and Lopez should land some solid prospects, unfortunately we have all watched a ton of top 100 in our system, and very few ever develop or make a impact. 

You have two quality SP in Lopez and Ryan, they give you a chance against the big bad big city teams like the NYY, you know what doesn't, BP days. There is a 1 1/2 yearvwindow to do something,... if the Pohlands statement yesterday was halfway honest they build a team around them.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Honest question, is extending a starting pitcher who you have control until almost age 32 (at the end of 2027 he is 31, turns 32 on June 5th in 2028) the smartest move by a "Mid" market team?  And what would that cost the Twins to buyout his first real chance a money?  Pablo got 4/73 and will be a FA again at the same age Ryan is the first time. I honestly don't see how the math works out for either of them. (I would think the twins would want something like Pablo in terms of years, and Ryan will want something closer to Burnes in terms of years and money)

When you bring up pitchers at age 24-26, you hope they turn out like Ryan/Jax/Duran and trade them for big packages (When and what year you do this could be up for debate) and never really pay them and let somebody else pay for the wrong side of age 30 contracts, or Sands, Varland, Ober types where they end up legit major league pitchers and hope to spin them for something prior to being free agents, or they just crap the bed and you move on (Winder, Balazovic. Enlow)

SWR is the age of a pitcher you may try buying out a year or two. Other than Keaschall NOBODY and I mean NOBODY on the Twins roster should be considered for an extension. 

So @mickster I guess you believe guys over 30 should be extended? 

Check this out!

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arbitration/extensions

 

 

 

[jmlease1]

28 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Haven't you/we watched enough of Larnach and Wallner to see what they are... slow, poor defense, low contact hitters. Other than 23, Lewis has been inconsistent at the plate and injury prone. It will be another long season next year if they are counting on all three to be a big part of the future.

people need to stop putting Wallner in the same group with Larnach. Wallner has been a much more productive hitter, and it's simply not close. Stylistically they might be similar but, Wallner's got a career OPS+ of 131; Larnach is at 99. Wallner has an OPS+ of 116 this season in a down year for him; Larnach's career high is 116.

 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Ole St Carleton said:

Biggest reasons for this win: no Gasper, no Julien in the lineup. 

Biggest reason, Clemens has taken France's place as clutch hitter.

[RpR]

15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

people need to stop putting Wallner in the same group with Larnach. Wallner has been a much more productive hitter, and it's simply not close. Stylistically they might be similar but, Wallner's got a career OPS+ of 131; Larnach is at 99. Wallner has an OPS+ of 116 this season in a down year for him; Larnach's career high is 116.

 

Yes, Joey Wallner's numbers are better.

[OvertheHill]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Yes, Joey Wallner's numbers are better.

A nod to Gallo? 

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Let's see how this second half plays out in regards to trading Ryan or Lopez.  We should know a lot more about the new owners by then and what level of payroll we will have next season.

If they are committed to winning and increase the payroll, then I'd say we should consider extensions for one or both to help win in the shorter term.  If we will continue to have a low payroll, then maybe we should trade Lopez at least to claw back his salary and pump up the lineup.

New owners??

[mickster]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So @mickster I guess you believe guys over 30 should be extended? 

Check this out!

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arbitration/extensions

 

 

 

I think each player is a unique situation.  I don't see any issue with this at times.   

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, mickster said:

wins are not the stat they once were, however what if Joe stays hot and gets to say 16-5 with a sub 2.9 ERA.   Does he get serious attention for Cy Young?

He should - I think he is already in the discussion.  It reminds me of Steve Carlton who won 27 games for the Philadelphia Phillies  team that finished the season with only 59 wins.

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not that we hate wins, it's just the pitcher wins as a stat don't really tell you all that much about how good they are. I'm perfectly happy to have Joe Ryan rack up win after win, it's just not how I'm going to evaluate his individual season. I'm much more interested in his ERA, his xFIP, his WHIP, his HR/9, etc to compare how dominant he's been in relation to the rest of the league and how successful he's been as an individual.

I will take pleasure in his wins.  Like I posted in another response - in 1972 the Phillies won 59 games, Steve Carlton won 27.  Those wins have extra meaning for me.   

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Credit where credit is due—Funderburk and Topa have stepped up since the bullpen selloff.

I’ve noticed that Topa’s velo is up recently, and with the funky delivery, he’s got a pretty good chance to be effective.

Fundy needs to throw strikes and he’ll be fine. 

Topa is hanging with Clemens.

[TwinsDr2021]

42 minutes ago, mickster said:

I think each player is a unique situation.  I don't see any issue with this at times.   

You don't see issues with it? did you look at the link?

For pitchers  DeGrom was done at age 30 (5/137), Berrios at age 27 (7/131), Castillo at age 30 (5/108), Hendricks at age 30 (4/55), Glasnow at age 29 (2/30), Gray age 29 (3/30), Weaver at age 29 (5/85), Nolasco at age 28 (3/26.5), JA Happ at age 31 (1/5.4) and some others age 28 and younger going back 10-20 years.

There really is no precedence in the last 25 years doing what you and others are asking and it doesn't come cheap (something the Twins are known for) and most asking for it will be complaining about a huge contract like Mauer, Donaldson, Correa, Buxton hurting the team. (and I would say just about every one of the above didn't work really work out and one could argue Lopez's at age 27 is still on a wait and see) 

As for hitters Blackmon did it at age 31 (6/108) I am thinking Colorado regretted that and hey they did it with Tyler Kinley at age 31 (not working either) . (same reason I am against extending any of the Twins players, except Keaschall or even Jenkins ASAP)  There have been a few relief pitchers that have worked out (which is also way cheaper) and a couple catchers and utility type players. That is it, but hey Twins players are different I mean we were told the all the mid 20's and later Twins prospects were the exception to the rule and look how well that has been going. I am a huge Twins fan and have all the HOPE in the world that Twins players are going to be great, but I am a realist as well and the idea of extending starting pitchers that you have control of though age 31 is asinine. 

[JD-TWINS]

6-6 since the Deadline with only 7 of 13 pitchers that are potentially on the 26 man Roster next April (3 starters). …… 6 or 7 position players that may start with Clemens & Lee as depth guys. Playing with some grit - only chance in MLB for some of them.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

people need to stop putting Wallner in the same group with Larnach. Wallner has been a much more productive hitter, and it's simply not close. Stylistically they might be similar but, Wallner's got a career OPS+ of 131; Larnach is at 99. Wallner has an OPS+ of 116 this season in a down year for him; Larnach's career high is 116.

 

Wallner in 76 games this year, batting.213 with 29 rbi’s. Throw in below average defense, what an I missing and what does that say about how bad Larnach is. If Wallner can’t be moved to 1st he is a DH against right handed pitching only. Not a ton of value. 

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Wallner in 76 games this year, batting.213 with 29 rbi’s. Throw in below average defense, what an I missing and what does that say about how bad Larnach is. If Wallner can’t be moved to 1st he is a DH against right handed pitching only. Not a ton of value. 

It's not his fault no one is on base when he hits.....it really isn't. People need to stop only looking at 1-2 stats. That said, ya, he needs to be better on defense. Even with his bad defense, he's putting up 2-2.5 war a year (if he ever plays a full year). 

[SaberNerd]

5 hours ago, mickster said:

wins are not the stat they once were, however what if Joe stays hot and gets to say 16-5 with a sub 2.9 ERA.   Does he get serious attention for Cy Young?

That almost certainly doesn't win with Skubal/Crochet in the 2.4s, but he could legitimately get 3rd place.  Could even rise to 2nd if one of them blows up.

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's not his fault no one is on base when he hits.....it really isn't. People need to stop only looking at 1-2 stats. That said, ya, he needs to be better on defense. Even with his bad defense, he's putting up 2-2.5 war a year (if he ever plays a full year). 

Agree to disagree. Batting .158 w/ RISP (hopefully that's incorrect), and yes there have been opportunities, especially when they were still in contention. Plus striking out around 33%. 

I have stated multiple times, would like to see him get a shot at first. Good glove, strong arm, otherwise he is best suited at DH. He is bottom 10% in range in the OF, just doesn't cut it.