Here’s How the Twins Can Develop the Next Dominant Bullpen

[Chembry]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Raya is what, 23? They'll keep him starting. IMO 

You are probably right, but he hasn't shown the durability to last a season as a starter...yet.  And his numbers haven't been great this year at AAA 1-8 6.42 ERA.  Although he has had several good starts recently.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Chembry said:

You are probably right, but he hasn't shown the durability to last a season as a starter...yet.  And his numbers haven't been great this year at AAA 1-8 6.42 ERA.  Although he has had several good starts recently.

You and I might agree.....

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, rdehring said:

Interesting article, Cody, and great analysis

After all the deadline moves, I was thinking about starters for 2026.  The Twins currently have a staff headed by three frontline starters, Lopez, Ryan and Ober.  Next are three starters who all have starting experience beginning last year, SWR, Festa and Matthews.  Add three top arms from deadline moves Abel, Bradley and Rojas who all are close.  That gives the Twins nine potential starters in 2026.

I would like to throw one more name into the mix, Mike Canterino.  The Twins signed him to a two-year minor league contract which gives him time to rehab this year and return to the mound in 2026.  Unlikely he would be available out of spring training, but he sure could become an option by say next year's trade deadline.  His days of starting are likely behind him, but when pitching he was special and could be another strong candidate for a late inning role.

That's good. Most teams will use 9 starters to get through a season.

Canterino is a name, but not someone I ever expect to see pitching in the major leagues. He hasn't thrown a competitive inning in three seasons. The track record of pitchers rehabbing after shoulder surgery is poor. If Canterino pitches in AAA it will be a minor miracle.

[DJL44]

CJ Culpepper is more interesting than Cory Lewis

[terrydactyls]

3 hours ago, Chembry said:

Not true.  Edwin Diaz signed a 5-year $102M deal in 2022.  Josh Hader $19M/year.  Tanner Scott 18M/year. Raisel Iglesias $14.5M/year, Ryan Pressley $15M/year...I could go on

High end closers, which we have a few potential candidates, will get paid once they hit unrestricted free agency.

And five might get paid as much as a #3 starter.  The few names you dropped are more comparable to the $35M to $40M a year pitchers.  Or put another way - playing at half salary.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I think this is over stating how difficult it is to "develop" decent bullpen arms. The fact that they'd added about one a season is more so on the construction of the bullpen previously, with less experimentation needed with the veterans in those roles already. 

Don't expect this to remain true, but technically this bullpen has performed better than the one with all those guys that were traded away. 

I don’t think so.  If it were that easy, then Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, et al would be pitching out of the bullpen for the Twins right now.  IMHO the Twins will be pretty fortunate to “create” one solid high-leverage relief arm per year.  Add in a little bit of luck and it still takes a long time.  In many ways, this is my biggest gripe with the bullpen tear down.  I was fine trading two, or maybe even three if you get bowled over with an offer, but taking away every high leverage arm at the same time seems foolish to me.  There is now no foundation from which to build.  

[cjm0926]

One thing I think that could be interesting is possibly trading one of these young arms to the White Sox for one of their young catchers. They have Teel and Quero, with Korey Lee in AAA (albeit much less value). Maybe the Sox would be interesting in adding a young pitcher with similar team control instead of holding onto multiple young catchers and trying to split reps. If possible, I'd try to trade SWR (5 years of control) and a mid-level prospect for Edgar Quero (6 years of control). I'm sure the Sox would value some guys over others in our system, but I think it would be wise to find a way to maximize the value of our abundance of young arms and add to a position of long-term need.

[Dman]

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

In my non-humble 😉 opinion, until high-profile relievers start getting paid like a starter, it will be difficult to convince people to change.  Look at someone like Morris.  He's looking down the road at a possible salary of $10M-$12M a year in a couple years if he remains a starter.  Or he could switch to relief and look forward to $5M-$6M a year.  Hard for them to look look forward to playing for half the salary when your value to the team hasn't significantly changed.

I think that's true to some extent, but if you are a pitcher 24 or older I'd be more interested in getting my service time started than holding out to be a starter.  You need to get through three non- arb years and then three more arb years before you can make the big, big bucks.  I'd do whatever I can to get my service time started.  There would always be a chance you could go back to starting if good enough out of the pen. We've seen more guys able to do that recently.  

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

And five might get paid as much as a #3 starter.  The few names you dropped are more comparable to the $35M to $40M a year pitchers.  Or put another way - playing at half salary.

I agree with you that starters are more valuable that relievers.  However, your argument is #4 or #5 starters get paid more than relievers.  I agree with that to an extent.  I am saying if a fringe starter, especially one that is competing with 5-6 others for one spot in the rotation, may be better off switching to a bullpen role if they have the chance to be a very good high leverage reliever.  If that is the case, they will get paid as well, if not more, than a #4 or #5 starter.

Here is the data.  These depth charts were taken directly from ESPN.com and the salaries from Sportrac.  As you can see, on average a #4 or #5 starter is mostly pre arbitration guys.  However, the ones that are post arbitration make similar money as average relievers.  There are guys whose salaries are inflated due to history of being a #1 or #2 starter (Aaron Nola, Chris Bassit, Jose Berrios, etc...) 

SP1	SP1 Salary	SP2	SP2 Salary	SP3	SP3 Salary	SP4	SP4 Salary	SP5	SP5 Salary
Kyle Bradish IL60	2,350,000	Zach Eflin IL15	18,000,000	Dean Kremer	2,950,000	Trevor Rogers	2,600,000	Tomoyuki Sugano	13,000,000
Garrett Crochet	3,800,000	Brayan Bello	2,500,000	Lucas Giolito	19,000,000	Dustin May	2,135,000	Walker Buehler	21,050,000
Max Fried	22,000,000	Carlos Rodon	27,000,000	Luis Gil	804,125	Will Warren	767,600	Ryan Yarbrough IL15	2,000,000
Ryan Pepiot	774,600	Shane Baz	1,450,000	Drew Rasmussen	2,250,000	Adrian Houser	1,375,000	Joe Boyle	760,000
Kevin Gausman	23,000,000	Shane Bieber IL60	3,172,017	Max Scherzer	15,500,000	Jose Berrios	19,000,000	Chris Bassitt	22,000,000
Aaron Civale	4,602,151	Shane Smith	760,000	Martin Perez IL60	3,500,000	Sean Burke	760,350	Davis Martin	765,450
Tanner Bibee	5,000,000	Gavin Williams	780,300	Logan Allen	777,200	Slade Cecconi	765,000	Joey Cantillo	762,800
Tarik Skubal	10,150,000	Jack Flaherty	25,000,000	Casey Mize	2,340,000	Chris Paddack	7,500,000	Charlie Morton	15,000,000
Cole Ragans IL60	1,250,000	Seth Lugo	15,000,000	Michael Wacha	18,000,000	Michael Lorenzen IL15	5,500,000	Noah Cameron	760,000
Pablo lopez	21,500,000	Joe Ryan	3,000,000	Bailey Ober	3,550,000	Zebby Matthews	760,000	David Festa	760,000
Jeffrey Springs	10,500,000	Luis Severino IL15	20,000,000	Jacob Lopez	760,000	J.T. Ginn	760,000	Jack Perkins	760,000
Hunter Brown	870,000	Framber Valdez	18,000,000	Spencer Arrighetti	794,200	Cristian Javier	10,400,000	Luis Garcia IL60	1,875,000
Yusei Kikuchi	21,225,000	Jose Soriano	790,000	Tyler Anderson DD	13,000,000	Kyle Hendricks	2,500,000	Victor Mederos	760,000
Luis Castillo	22,750,000	George Kirby	4,300,000	Logan Gilbert	7,625,000	Bryan Woo	783,300	Bryce Miller IL15	800,000
Nathan Eovaldi	30,100,000	Jacob deGrom	40,100,000	Merrill Kelly	7,000,000	Tyler Mahle IL60	16,500,000	Jack Leiter	2,050,000
Spencer Strider	4,000,000	Chris Sale IL60	22,000,000	Bryce Elder	800,000	Joey Wentz	775,000	Hurston Waldrep	760,000
Eury Perez	769,500	Ryan Weathers IL60	779,100	Sandy Alcantara	17,300,000	Edward Cabrera	1,950,000	Cal Quantrill	3,500,000
Kodai Senga	14,000,000	Sean Manaea	20,212,526	David Peterson	4,625,000	Clay Holmes	13,000,000	Tylor Megill IL60	1,975,000
Zack Wheeler	42,000,000	Ranger Suarez	8,800,000	Jesus Luzardo	6,626,000	Cristopher Sanchez	2,050,000	Aaron Nola IL60	24,571,428
MacKenzie Gore	2,890,000	Mitchell Parker	767,200	Jake Irvin	774,600	Brad Lord	760,000	Cade Cavalli	760,200
Shota Imanaga	13,000,000	Matthew Boyd	10,000,000	Jameson Taillon IL15	18,000,000	Cade Horton	760,000	Michael Soroka IL15	9,000,000
Hunter Greene IL15	6,000,000	Nick Lodolo IL15	1,975,000	Andrew Abbott	770,000	Zack Littell	5,720,000	Brady Singer	8,750,000
Freddy Peralta	8,100,000	Brandon Woodruff	5,000,000	Jose Quintana	2,000,000	Quinn Priester	760,000	Jacob Misiorowski IL15	760,000
Paul Skenes	875,000	Mitch Keller	15,411,500	Mike Burrows	760,000	Andrew Heaney	5,250,000	Braxton Ashcraft	760,000
Sonny Gray	25,000,000	Matthew Liberatore	775,800	Andre Pallante	2,100,100	Miles Mikolas	17,666,667	Michael McGreevy	760,000
Zac Gallen	13,500,000	Eduardo Rodriguez	20,000,000	Ryne Nelson	825,000	Brandon Pfaadt	799,400	Anthony DeSclafani	2,000,000
Kyle Freeland	16,000,000	German Marquez IL15	10,000,000	Austin Gomber	6,350,000	Antonio Senzatela IL15	12,000,000	Bradley Blalock	762,000
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	10,000,000	Shohei Ohtani	28,216,944	Tyler Glasnow	32,500,000	Blake Snell	28,436,867	Clayton Kershaw	7,500,000
Michael King	4,000,000	Nick Pivetta	2,500,000	Dylan Cease	13,750,000	Yu Darvish	21,000,000	Nestor Cortes	7,600,000
Logan Webb	12,000,000	Robbie Ray	25,000,000	Justin Verlander	15,000,000	Landen Roupp IL15	765,000	Kai-Wei Teng	760,000
Average	11,733,542		11,709,680		7,334,374		6,126,639		5,110,729

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think that's true to some extent, but if you are a pitcher 24 or older I'd be more interested in getting my service time started than holding out to be a starter.  You need to get through three non- arb years and then three more arb years before you can make the big, big bucks.  I'd do whatever I can to get my service time started.  There would always be a chance you could go back to starting if good enough out of the pen. We've seen more guys able to do that recently.  

That was my argument "to" Jax all along. Get in the majors, start making money early.......

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don’t think so.  If it were that easy, then Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, et al would be pitching out of the bullpen for the Twins right now.  IMHO the Twins will be pretty fortunate to “create” one solid high-leverage relief arm per year.  Add in a little bit of luck and it still takes a long time.  In many ways, this is my biggest gripe with the bullpen tear down.  I was fine trading two, or maybe even three if you get bowled over with an offer, but taking away every high leverage arm at the same time seems foolish to me.  There is now no foundation from which to build.  

Henriquez and Moran are evidence in my favor. Both were fine bullpen arms despite never being real prospects. 

The bullpen in 2027 will be completely fine, and arguably better than 2025. 

[Elliot]

Patience, patience, patience

The biggest mistake is to give up on a young starter before they have really shown what they can become. Frank Viola is a good example. Going into 1984, his 3^rd year in the bigs, he had a career record of 11-25, with an ERA over 5.50, a WHIP of 1.55, and was giving up 1.5 HR’s per 9.  It may have made sense to push him to the pen after that kind of a start to his career. However; 1984 turned things around and started an amazing run of 250 inning seasons and an eventual Cy Young as a starter.

It was mentioned that all of the relievers traded had started out as starters, but failed. That is essentially true for all relievers. The main difference is the level of failure, and when it occurs. If they transition in AA or AAA, we tend to think of them as always being relievers. It is those that break into the majors as starters that we have this discussion over. That’s where the comparison of the 5 gets interesting. It looks like Stewart and Coulombe both started with the Dodgers, bounced around a bit, (Stewart was even out of pro ball for a stretch) and then were resurrected by the Twins.

Jax and Varland both were developed by the Twins and struggled as starters. They had seen enough of starter Jax in one season and transitioned him full time to the pen in his second year, sort of as a last ditch effort. Varland was a starter for parts of three years (2022, 23,  and 24) in the majors, showing flashes of success.  Short stints in the pen showed potential of a high-end reliever, but it seemed that Varland wanted to continue starting. 2025 was the first year Varland was strictly a reliever.

Duran is the exception. He never started a game in the majors. He was transitioned to the pen in his final minor league season and has been there since.

Each of the 5 took a different path.  That will probably be the case with the next wave as well.  The group of young starters laid out in the article (Festa, SWR, Matthews, Bradley) are a ways into the progression. Abel, Adams, Morris, Ohl, Raya, Prielipp, and probably a few I have missed are just getting started. Decisions will be made based on performance.

As has been pointed out by a number of commenters, you don’t really need a playoff caliber BP if you don’t have a team that can get to the playoffs. If by chance, the offense comes together quicker and there looks like playoff potential next year, a quicker decision may need to be made. A few of the above names will likely start 2026 in the pen, but the majority will be starting at either St Paul or Minneapolis.

It is fun to anticipate and predict how this may play out over the next few years, but until the decisions need to be made, just relax and enjoy the process,

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They'd have to decide to stop having them start. Then where's the depth? No chance they move Matthews off starting. Or Preilipp. This also assumes they didn't deal anyone. 

100% agree.  These two guys have the potential to be top of the rotation starters.  It makes zero sense to move them to a BP role until they have proven they are not mid-rotation or better starters.  Good example is Jax.  I remember you being on that one as it unfolded.

[Fatbat]

Probably be the same way they built the last one. Throw in a couple failed starters. Add in a few young arms that play in1-2 inning stints. Sign a few failed guys off the scrap heap of MLB FA pitching. Throw it all at the wall and see what sticks. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Henriquez and Moran are evidence in my favor. Both were fine bullpen arms despite never being real prospects. 

The bullpen in 2027 will be completely fine, and arguably better than 2025. 

I'm willing to hope you are correct.  I'm just not willing to hold my breath.  

The 2026 bullpen will likely be a trainwreck.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm willing to hope you are correct.  I'm just not willing to hold my breath.  

The 2026 bullpen will likely be a trainwreck.

Agreed. They aren't even auditioning guys that won't start next year. 

[DocBauer]

I don't recall Festa having any serious injury until this year. While it sounds more like shoulder fatigue of some sort rather than something major, it does beg the question if he would be better in the pen moving forward. Similar to the reason Duran was moved.

There has been some concern regarding CJ Culpepper maintaining his velocity. Like Jax, he has a number of pitches he throws. Perhaps he also stays healthier and throws harder in the pen?

I don't know WHO gets moved or WHEN. But to say nobody WANTS to be made a reliever is somewhat inaccurate. Ask Jax if he'd prefer to be retired now, or chasing his dream as a 30yo in AAA or having a $2M + salary and growing, service time, and fulfilling his ML dream. Every kid wants to imagine he's a future Cy Young winner and will sign $30M contracts. But it only works out that way for limited number.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 minute ago, DocBauer said:

I don't know WHO gets moved or WHEN. But to say nobody WANTS to be made a reliever is somewhat inaccurate. Ask Jax if he'd prefer to be retired now, or chasing his dream as a 30yo in AAA or having a $2M + salary and growing, service time, and fulfilling his ML dream. Every kid wants to imagine he's a future Cy Young winner and will sign $30M contracts. But it only works out that way for limited number.

 

I think this is the real answer.  Everybody wants the big bucks and they are all hyper-competitive.  But, there comes a point when most of them realize that the best path forward might be the bullpen.  Reality sets in for everyone eventually.  

[jdoffing11]

I'm not ready to give up on Zebby as a starter. Dude has been solid as of late. Who knows, there are similarities to Varland and maybe he will turn out the same way. But I love how they handled Varland, they gave him a legitimate opportunity before moving him to the pen.

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

 The Twins have added the structured routine of a 3-4 inning/3 days rest pitcher this year in the minors. Pitchers don’t need the routine of a reliever to pitch in relief in the majors.

And for the life of me I can't come up with one single solitary reason this makes any sense. 

What the hell are they preparing them for? There's no such role

 

[jdoffing11]

10 hours ago, Danchat said:

I don't think they move any of the grouping of Matthews/SWR/Festa to the pen and probably not Prielipp. Raya's likely destination is the pen but they're probably going to keep trying him as a starter because of the upside. But when it comes to the borderline arms like Adams, Ohl, and Lewis they should be tested out as one inning relievers... I don't buy that the multi-inning approach is going to work long-term for them.

 

Prielipp is 24 and has thrown less than 100 career innings combined between college and the minors. Given that, it's really hard for me to see him being an MLB starter, especially with the newfound depth in the upper levels of the system.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article. Rebuilding the Twins bullpen looks like a daunting task, but not something that will necessarily take two years. I don't see us signing any "top" free agents or making trades, so basically we will need to find some in-house arms that were being used as starters (Prielipp, Raya, Lewis, etc.) that may not be able to crack our starting rotation for a few years, if ever. And then we need to find some castoff arms that could be useful like we found in the past with pitchers such as Brock Stewart, Coloumbe, Megill, Littell, and Wisler. Not all-stars, but the arms are out there. Obviously, we are going to need to be creative, but I think this re-build can happen quicker than some think.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, Elliot said:

Each of the 5 took a different path.  That will probably be the case with the next wave as well.

Viola - 22 , Stewart - 24, Jax - 26, Coulombe - 24, Varland - 24, Duran - 24 

Viola is the only one that ended up a starter and was very good one by the time these others were even making the majors, And most of the other guys you mentioned are already 24 or older. Only Abel, Bradley, SWR debuted earlier than age 24.

The odds say all of these guys end up in the pen, we can only hope 1 or 2 become decent reliable starters.

 

"Duran is the exception. He never started a game in the majors. He was transitioned to the pen in his final minor league season and has been there since."

Duran pitched in 84 games in the minors and started 80 (and two of the four games he didn't start were rehab in 2024) So not sure if one game in relief in St. Paul in 21 counts as transitioned in the pen his final minor league season. 

 

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

And for the life of me I can't come up with one single solitary reason this makes any sense. 

What the hell are they preparing them for? There's no such role

 

This is my recall of the Sunday morning radio show with Jeremy Zoll. I don’t think the purpose was to develop a pitcher for that role in the majors. I think the purpose is to have a role in the minors structured to get more innings as well as having routine time in between outings to work. The routine of a reliever does not allow that routine.

My takeaway…

I don’t think they have developed anyone who was strictly a reliever in the minors to a successful major league reliever. Jovani Moran is the closest but he was signed in the prior administration. Maybe they think giving 10 or so more pitchers in the organization a regular routine that allows work in between adds to the chances someone will make it through.

This administration is going to develop pitchers for the bullpen from a starter’s role in the minors. I might argue with that but I don’t think they are preparing pitchers for a new role in the majors. I do see Adams and Ohl in that bullpen day role now so I could be wrong. I am hoping it is a function of three starters on IL and one starter traded.

[David Maro]

Easy!! Fire the fools in the office and dugout. You don't trade arms that you have years of control. They had a couple of years to develop replacements,but blew up the one thing this team had.

We all saw what happens when you have no BP the last two nights in NYC. They went there with the Yankees not playing well and are getting smoked.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, Chembry said:

Here is my opinion:

Every team needs 8 relievers... most of the fringe starters are fighting for the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation and could very well spend the vast majority of their time in AAA.  Given nobody is traded in the offseason, we have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Bradley, and Abel that have MLB experience.  Then we have Raya and Morris at AAA, Prelipp at AA.  Again if no trades/injuries occur, our top 4 is more than likely set at Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Matthews.  That leaves the other 6 (7 if you want to include Prelipp) fighting for the #5 spot.  I am not sure it would take that much convincing to move 1-2 into the high leverage bullpen situations, especially if they have the chance to be very good.      

I would argue that we have several potential starters that may very well fit the mold of high leverage relievers: Festa, SWR for example... Maybe Raya, Morris, Prelipp (depending on durability,)  

This assumption does not seem likely given what happened at the deadline.  To trade away Duran/Jax/Varland /Stewart and then try to replace 4 very good RPs by converting SPs would be unprecedented malpractice. 

[Otaknam]

It’s a big decision to move a pitcher to the bullpen. They have to be sure that starting is not viable going forward, so some track record of that is needed. I disagree with one poster who suggested Matthews in the bullpen. Zebby has had several very successful starts and some clunkers too. But he is tough when he is on, so I see no reason to move him to the bullpen yet. 
 

Speaking of the bullpen, it is now littered with waiver projects in Tonkin,  Hatch, Ramirez, Kriske, Davis, Misiewicz, Urena, Duarte, McCaughan. Most of these guys I never heard of, and obviously the FO prefers scrap heap pitchers to starting the arbitration clock on some AAA guys who could use some experience in the big leagues. It’s pretty disappointing to see 35 year old journeymen pitchers on this rebuilding team, instead of building for next year and beyond. Can’t wait for a change in ownership, front office, and manager too. 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Sure let's save on service time to let them go through their growing pains next April and May and be out of the race by June.

They were out of the 2026 race when they traded Duran/Jax/Varland/Steward and Correa.  The lack of production from Larnach / Lee and Lewis also contributed.   Getting a couple prospects that are not ready for MBL 7 or 8 starts is going to have very little impact on them being in our out of the race in 2026.

[Chembry]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This assumption does not seem likely given what happened at the deadline.  To trade away Duran/Jax/Varland /Stewart and then try to replace 4 very good RPs by converting SPs would be unprecedented malpractice. 

LOL!  Did you read anything else in that post or anything else I posted?

I never said saying they are going to replace all of our previous relief pitchers with starters...I stated many times that given no trades/injuries our top 4 in the rotation are more than likely Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews.  That leaves the other 6 potential candidates fighting for 1 rotation spot.  

Then I said it wouldn't take much convincing to convert 1 or maybe 2 of those starters to a bullpen role... never once did I mention converting them all to RP roles

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Then why are we not bringing up these guys NOW and getting them pen experience in the last 2 months of THIS season?  I get some may not be on there 40-man, but some are.  This season is lost at this point anyways so lets let these BP vets with high ERA's go and bring up some actual RP prospects so we can start building next year's pen now instead of waiting until next season.

$$$ - loss of player control one year sooner is my assumption, along with guys not being ready in Club’s eyes.