Grading the 9 Trades from the Twins’ 2025 Trade Deadline

[DocBauer]

IMO, you can't just look at each of these deals individually and score them in any meaningful way. We're talking a huge chunk of the roster turned over in 48 hours. As a result, all of these moves are intertwined. 

1] DURAN: It's a really solid B+ return. But a TOP, proven closer with 2 more years of control should have included a 3rd player, or someone closer to helping the Twins offensively than Tait. We got a good return, but we needed an A on this, not a B+. Still good value though. 

2] BADER: Solid value on a rental. A LH version of Gonzalez and a 16yo DSL flier that they are at least familiar with. But a B+ for me when I look at the "fit" or another LH OF.

3]  CORREA: It's a D up front as it looks really bad, and brought nothing back in return. Now, Lee's bat takes a step forward, Culpepper is up and ready by July 2026 if not sooner. Snd the new owners actually invest the $20M savings, this can be a B+ move. 

4] PADDACK: They got a switch hitting, strong arm, supposedly good young backstop but he's only 19yo. Not bad! Did including Dobnak in the deal really lower the return value though? I'll agree with the B-. Disappointing to think we might have gotten a high A or AA player if we just ate the rest of Dobber's deal. Still, a talented young catching flier was a good return. 

5] CASTRO: By all reports there were several teams interested. Gallagher sounds like a solid return. Not sure Armstrong as the 2nd piece was good enough. Wasn't there a 1B or other bat at AA or high A that might have been a better need fit? Still, the C+ sounds very fair. I might bump it up to a B once I see more of Gallagher and Armstrong.

6] COULOMBE: I really thought he had more value than a 2024 draftee coming off surgery. Supposedly the Twins really like the Horn kid. I think INCOMPLETE might be a more accurate grade here. I have a soft spot for LH arms, but Horn is such an unknown right now I'm a little disappointed here.

7] JAX: They weren't FORCED to trade Jax simply because he asked. He'd be the closer in 2026. He's still got great stuff and high K numbers and is only 30yo. Bradley wasn't a bad return. But he's been sliding. However, he's also pretty young. Is he a mid rotation starter or a back of the pen arm? I'm going with a C grade even though Bradley's got potential. A 1 for 1 and the loss of Jax AFTER moving Duran keeps my grade down. 

8] STEWART: An absolute F grade. ANOTHER LH OF? And one that needs to be "fixed" at 28yo? Stewart is good, cheap, and controlled. I'd take whatever he's got left and cross my fingers for 40-50 IP all day over a player the Dodgers were probably close to DFA.

9] VARLAND: They'd already moved 4 of their top 5 pen arms and decided it was smart to just clean house? Why? Varland is a setup guy in 2026 and possibly/probably the closer after everyone else is gone. And while Roden shouldn't be judged on a SSS at the ML level, he wasn't a power plant in MILB. And he's ANOTHER LH OF. A little more power, and a possible answer at 1B, or even a legitimate backup in CF, I like him better. They'd better be right about Rojas or my C grade becomes a D, and possibly an F if Roden doesn't take off. 

Getting a bunch of talented arms is never a bad thing. But if you didn't completely blow up the bullpen, would you need so many arms added to what you already have? And where are the bats? The odds of Outman contributing anything are pretty remote. The 2 catchers are a good 2-3 years away. Roden is battling Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and now possible 2027 option in Mendez.

I only really hate 1 move. I'm a little disappointed in a couple more. But it's the OVERVIEW I don't get. Why all 5 pen arms and not keep Jax and Varland. But even if they just felt they had to move Jax, why move Varland?

It almost felt like everyone was working the phones separately and nobody knew what the plan was until the timer hit zero. Again, I just can't separate each trade individually. They all affect one another as a collective. And that lowers a lot of my grades a good notch in most areas. I don't see a plan, or returns that fit together as a whole.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Disappointing to think we might have gotten a high A or AA player if we just ate the rest of Dobber's deal.

The Twins could have received much better prospects if they were willing to eat more money. They saved at least $13M on the expiring contracts. If they send cash to all of those teams, they'll get better players in return. If they had eaten all $115M remaining on Correa's contract they probably could have had 4 of Houston's top 10 prospects. We all know that this team doesn't have money to buy prospects like that.

[DocBauer]

48 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins could have received much better prospects if they were willing to eat more money. They saved at least $13M on the expiring contracts. If they send cash to all of those teams, they'll get better players in return. If they had eaten all $115M remaining on Correa's contract they probably could have had 4 of Houston's top 10 prospects. We all know that this team doesn't have money to buy prospects like that.

I'm not sure if sending along $ in most of these deals would have made a difference other than the Paddack/Dobnak deal. (Correa's deal is its own mess). Stewart, Varland and France were on minimum or barely above deals. So their new teams are only hook for about a combined $1M. Jax is owed roughly $800,000. Coulombe is owed about $1M. Bader has about $2M still owed. So I don't know if  paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader?

Where I think it might have made a difference is picking up half of Duran's remaining $1.4M. Does half of that, or all of it, add a 3rd player to the deal?

I don't think a young catcher like Jiminez from Detroit was an awful return. He's a LONG way away from MLB, but he's got some bat potential, has a good arm, and reportedly is a natural behind the plate. So if you pick up some of Paddack's remaining salary and don't "force" Dobnak in to the deal, maybe they get a 1B, or solid OF, at A+...MAYBE AA...instead of a FCL catcher who's just been promoted to A- ball. I'm sure we will never know, but it does make me wonder.

 

[mikelink45]

It is fun to see all the reactions.  I don't know what the grades should be.  I do think that in this era of BP being so essential we had enough youth in pen that we should have kept Varland and one of Duran or Jax.  I see us moving forward and suddenly desperate for BP help.  We could have been better off in the future with a little more strategic thought.  

Like everyone I think Castro was a steal.  I am sorry to see him go. 

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

So I don't know if  paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader?

Castro had $2M left as well. Plus, eating the contract means you can sell them to teams who are paying the luxury tax. It opens up the market.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters).

Seems like Jax, Varland and Duran were pretty effective in their first full year as a reliever. I need to have hope that the Twins bullpen can turn it around quick. Part of that hope is that some of their excess in starters will be a foundation for a good bullpen 2026. I also don’t think they need to prepare to be relievers in the minors so keeping them starting was a good plan. In Duran’s case he never had a year where he was a failed starter. I think they maximized his use as a reliever. I think the same of Jax. He had one partial season as a major league starter and moved to relief. I think they should have moved Varland to start last year and lost a year. There was reporting that Varland wasn’t ready to give up starting that might have had an impact. I think the bigger impact was the foolish trade for DeSclafani. His unsurprising injury forced them to turn to Varland.

I survive on hope and have to hope it isn’t going to take 2-3 years.

[Brandon]

While I know the Correa trade was a salary dump we should be paying less of his contract maybe 20-25 million with atleast their # 25 prospect or a good lotto player. In that 22-30 range.  Houston could still add that guy in the trade to show salary dump returns.

Stewart trade was wasted opportunity.  So was Jax trade.  Still puzzled on Varland trade.  

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, Brandon said:

While I know the Correa trade was a salary dump we should be paying less of his contract maybe 20-25 million with atleast their # 25 prospect or a good lotto player. In that 22-30 range.  Houston could still add that guy in the trade to show salary dump returns.

Houston "could."  But not "would," or even "should."  I mean, why would/should Houston bid against themselves?  They knew Correa had the no-trade clause, and they could infer they (themselves) were the only team he'd agree to go to.  Minnesota really, really wanted out of that contract.  Negotiation sessions were probably brief and brutal.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Seems like Jax, Varland and Duran were pretty effective in their first full year as a reliever. I need to have hope that the Twins bullpen can turn it around quick. Part of that hope is that some of their excess in starters will be a foundation for a good bullpen 2026. I also don’t think they need to prepare to be relievers in the minors so keeping them starting was a good plan. In Duran’s case he never had a year where he was a failed starter. I think they maximized his use as a reliever. I think the same of Jax. He had one partial season as a major league starter and moved to relief. I think they should have moved Varland to start last year and lost a year. There was reporting that Varland wasn’t ready to give up starting that might have had an impact. I think the bigger impact was the foolish trade for DeSclafani. His unsurprising injury forced them to turn to Varland.

I survive on hope and have to hope it isn’t going to take 2-3 years.

They'll have to give up on four guys being starters between now and the beginning of the year. I just don't see them doing that. I could be wrong.

[BrokenCompass]

7 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Are we talking about the same person? As of last week he was in the upper third of the roster by WAR (1.4), and put up enviable numbers, Time on the IL does not erase that. 

This is like saying Austin Martin is the best hitter on the Twins because he's batting .400. The guy has played in like 4 games, it's irrelevant. 

Wake me up when Stewart does something. Ten bucks says he's out of the league by 2027. No big loss whatsoever for this team. 

[Tom Froemming]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

In 2018 Tom Froeming wrote this:

Twins give: Eduardo Escobar

Twins get: OF Ernie De La Trinidad, RHP Jhoan Duran, OF Gabriel Maciel

Tom’s grade: B

 

Twins give: Ryan Pressly

Twins get: RHP Jorge Alcala, OF Gilberto Celestino

Tom’s grade: A

 

Twins give: Lance Lynn

Twins get: Tyler Austin, Luis Rijo

Tom’s grade: A

 

Twins give: Brian Dozier

Twins get: 2B Logan Forsythe, OF/1B Luke Raley, LHP Devin Smeltzer

Tom’s grade: D

 

Twins give: Zach Duke

Twins get: RHP Chase De Jong, 1B/3B Ryan Costello

Tom’s grade: C 

 

One out of 5 grades was accurate. 

I tried to link the story, sorry. 

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

[TNtwins85]

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

What is the context of your ranking? Is it player based? ? How are you rating the prospects coming back? Is it from similar trades? Is it your gut feeling?

Given the variables of the team and the unknowns, other than the Varland move (which feels like you graded based off of emotions) I can't see any move being less than a B or B-. Finances ruled the day. Teams saw that everyone was being moved so they started to lowball all the trade offers. If this started a week ago, the returns may have looked different.

The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.

Correa gets a B in a bubble, but will be an F by next spring when that money is not reinvested back into salary.

All of that being said, the common knowledge comment: We will not truly know the success or failure of these trades until 2028-2030.

And the miller trade is only good because of De Vries. The other guys were all lottery tickets. I seen somebody rank it and it only beat the Twins deal by a couple points. 

[TNtwins85]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins could have received much better prospects if they were willing to eat more money. They saved at least $13M on the expiring contracts. If they send cash to all of those teams, they'll get better players in return. If they had eaten all $115M remaining on Correa's contract they probably could have had 4 of Houston's top 10 prospects. We all know that this team doesn't have money to buy prospects like that.

But then you don’t trade him. They could offer to pay Altuves contract too and receive even more. Lol

[SteveLV]

My thoughts and hopes after the trade deadline:

1) Pohlads sell to a good new owner willing to embrace the fan base and reinvigorate the franchise;

2) A new TV deal in some form or another that helps the finances;

3) Ryan gets extended in the off season.  Otherwise, trade him for an excellent package;

4) The only thing I can come up with on the Stewart trade is that there is something very bad in his medicals;

5) I actually like the Varland trade package and like that this franchise finally has some LH starting pitchers in the pipeline;

6) Correa was becoming an emotional albatross on top of his salary.  He may very well excel in Houston, but that was never going to happen here based on his past performance;

I posted this before the trade deadline and I stand by the original comment:  I would rather watch young players try and possibly fail than waiver-wire wannabes flounder and trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I think all fans are more forgiving of young players trying to make the jump to the majors and enjoy rooting for the rookies.  LET'S GO!

P.S.  The only REAL hope for the Twins is a new CBA that institutes a real salary cap and floor, but that is probably a pipe dream.....

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

Ya, bringing this kind of thing up is truly lame. Truly.

Only judging things years later is truly lame. It adds nothing to any conversation. Plus, bad decisions can work, doesn't make them good decisions (like not killing someone while driving drunk) and good decisions can fail, doesn't make them bad decisions. Could be bad luck. Could be anything.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Houston "could."  But not "would," or even "should."  I mean, why would/should Houston bid against themselves?  They knew Correa had the no-trade clause, and they could infer they (themselves) were the only team he'd agree to go to.  Minnesota really, really wanted out of that contract.  Negotiation sessions were probably brief and brutal.

Given the complete lack of leverage the Twins had in moving Correa, I think they did pretty okay for themselves.  They didn't blink when Houston wanted half his salary covered plus another major leaguer.  Turning that into roughly a third of his salary covered and a player coming back this way - even if it might have been the least valuable player in the entire Houston organization - I think was a case of making some chicken salad out of ... you know

[Fatbat]

The Stewart trade was an F and the Varland trade is mind bogglingly ludicrous. F-.  The others got some value back but the biggest and best one was no more C4 GIDP. 

[old nurse]

49 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

I posted to merely show that even someone who appears to follow the minors and prospects gets it very wrong.  I thought that it should be obvious which grade was correct.  Since you so politely  asked, or in spite of it, here is your answer. Dozier was coming off 3 great years and was having a down year, but the return was a D. Your reaction to me not saying which grade was accurate means that I made an incorrect statement. Duke was having an above average reliever year. The return was nothing. The only other grade you could argue you were correct n was Lance Lynn, only because it got rid of Lance Lynn. As far as the prospects go, that was a D return 

[ashbury]

56 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Given the complete lack of leverage the Twins had in moving Correa, I think they did pretty okay for themselves.  They didn't blink when Houston wanted half his salary covered plus another major leaguer. 

Chuck Norris has never blinked in his entire life. Never.

I'm sure the Pohlads blinked at that initial offer, though.  Houston knows the Blink Test as well as most salespeople.  😀

[yeahyabetcha]

10 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland.  And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline.  In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do.  They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him

We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden.  I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end

Isn’t it also incredibly optimistic to think Varland might be the next Duran??

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They needed to trade at least one of Correa, Lewis, or Lee. 

Also, Luke Keaschall looks like a really nice player. Kudos to the scouts who originally put eyes on him, and kudos to the front office for accelerating him through the minors—Keaschall was clearly ready for the challenge. They did the same fast promotion track with Luis Arraez. 

Reminds me of another rookie second baseman who came up in the 90s who looked really good. No, not Todd Walker, I am talking about Chuck Knoblauch…

I agree with tony&rodney that I would have liked to know if there was a plan going into the deadline, or if they just got caught up in the moment. Maybe packaging Duran with Bader with a very good minor leaguer or one of the back end MLB starters, can get you Painter. I don’t how good Painter is but the board seemed to like him. Instead, they traded Duran and Bader to the same team separately. Maybe the outfielder from the Bader trade is the skill corner outfielder they are lacking. I would have extended Bader with the Twins, understanding that his hitting will revert. Keaschall, Bader, plus a healthy Lewis and Buxton, and suddenly the 2026 team would look quicker up the middle in the field and on the bases. 

[AKTwinsFan]

Most of it was a complete salay dump, probably requested or prompted by the new prospective owners. 

[AKTwinsFan]

The point was to ease the burden of the ever increasing value and paychecks of the pitchers and players. Arbitration is contingent on the players performance and value, Duran and Jax probably along would be upwards of $15M. The returns less than $2M with high upside. If you look at it in this prospective then it's all an A or B in return. 

I don't like trading Stewart and Varland though. Those could have been our closers.

[yeahyabetcha]

7 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

They needed to trade at least one of Correa, Lewis, or Lee. 

Also, Luke Keaschall looks like a really nice player. Kudos to the scouts who originally put eyes on him, and kudos to the front office for accelerating him through the minors—Keaschall was clearly ready for the challenge. They did the same fast promotion track with Luis Arraez. 

Reminds me of another rookie second baseman who came up in the 90s who looked really good. No, not Todd Walker, I am talking about Chuck Knoblauch…

I agree with tony&rodney that I would have liked to know if there was a plan going into the deadline, or if they just got caught up in the moment. Maybe packaging Duran with Bader with a very good minor leaguer or one of the back end MLB starters, can get you Painter. I don’t how good Painter is but the board seemed to like him. Instead, they traded Duran and Bader to the same team separately. Maybe the outfielder from the Bader trade is the skill corner outfielder they are lacking. I would have extended Bader with the Twins, understanding that his hitting will revert. Keaschall, Bader, plus a healthy Lewis and Buxton, and suddenly the 2026 team would look quicker up the middle in the field and on the bases. 

Painter was not available.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Painter was not available.

Oh.

[twinstalker]

Varland is arguably their best trade.  Shame on you for being so provincial.

You think they traded Varland for any other reason than the return?

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

That Brian Dozier trade turned out better than expected. Smeltzer was a useful 14th pitcher on a 13 man staff, Forsythe held down 2nd the rest of the year and Raley did some stuff just not for us.  Dozier didn’t do much after getting traded.

 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

Nurse is not attacking your analysis. He's using your analysis to show that these immediate trade reaction opinions are worthless. 

If he thinks that these immediate trade reaction opinions are worthless. I don't think he will put his worthless opinion out there. He knows his opinion is also worthless. 

He has the guts to express that these opinions are worthless... that's his opinion. His opinion is to not pay attention to these types of opinions. 

Deep Breath

 

[Tom Froemming]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Nurse is not attacking your analysis. He's using your analysis to show that these immediate trade reaction opinions are worthless. 

If he thinks that these immediate trade reaction opinions are worthless. I don't think he will put his worthless opinion out there. He knows his opinion is also worthless. 

He has the guts to express that these opinions are worthless... that's his opinion. His opinion is to not pay attention to these types of opinions. 

Deep Breath

 

They’ve since added their thoughts, which I appreciate (and showed so with a like). I’m not sure if you’re putting words into their mouth, so I want to make it clear I’m addressing this concept you’re outlining directly and not necessarily aiming this at Nurse, since this isn’t coming from them.

Twins Daily would be a pretty boring site if all we did was write about what already happened. Yes, it’s difficult to try to analyze how things might work out in the future — even the people whose job it is to do that aren’t all that good at it — but it’s fun to try and makes for some interesting conversations, like in this piece. 

Allow yourself to have a little fun. Embrace your worthless opinions! 😅

[VivaBomboRivera!]

12 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

This is like saying Austin Martin is the best hitter on the Twins because he's batting .400. The guy has played in like 4 games, it's irrelevant. 

Wake me up when Stewart does something. Ten bucks says he's out of the league by 2027. No big loss whatsoever for this team. 

By this logic, we should have traded Buxton, as well...