Roster Implications and 40-man Timelines for Every New Twin

[jmlease1]

I'm not seeing too many 40-man problems for the Twins right now. Honestly, Roden worries me a bit: he's looked awful in MLB so far and while he's very controllable...what are we actually getting? I'm baffled by the evaluation that he's going to be a quality 4th OF right now, because he's shown nothing to suggest he's not a Quad-A player and I just don't know how much room you want to waste on those guys at the back of your 40-man. But at the end of the day, it's relatively small potatoes.

Mendez looks interesting and has been off to a good start in AA, but doesn't look ready to hit in MLB yet and should be exposed. If he were an elite defensive OF it might be different; a team (especially a bad one looking for talent) might be willing to grab a guy like that, but Mendez needs to hit to be in MLB and it seems unlikely that he could stick on a MLB roster all season. 

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not seeing too many 40-man problems for the Twins right now.

Concur

Which is the problem. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

Definitely not this winter and likely not even post-2026, though that's what Fangraphs claims is a possibility. I tried to stick with their information even if the arb timelines weren't realistic. 

Thanks for this on Outman. Also, given his very limited time in the majors the last 2 years, could he be granted a 4th option year the way Larnach was? The closest thing I could find on an answer was that "a player can be granted a fourth option year if they have exhausted their three regular options and have less than five full seasons of professional experience. This often occurs when a player misses significant time due to injuries or spends full seasons in lower-level Minor Leagues with shorter schedules." I don't think he qualifies for that, but it may explain why he is in AAA now so that the Twins can try to get a 4th option year for him in the off season.  Well, that and he can't hit in AAA are why he's still there I guess. 

By the way, I don't think the Twins see options as the issue. They intend for Outman to the 5th OF/backup CF for next year, especially after watching Martin not be able to handle the job this year. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'll be surprised if outman isn't DFA. Still can't figure out this trade. 

I'd take a flyer on Mendez if I was a team without much offense. 

[bunsen82]

47 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Mendez looks interesting and has been off to a good start in AA, but doesn't look ready to hit in MLB yet and should be exposed. If he were an elite defensive OF it might be different; a team (especially a bad one looking for talent) might be willing to grab a guy like that, but Mendez needs to hit to be in MLB and it seems unlikely that he could stick on a MLB roster all season. 

Yes Mendez has 40 man implications,  but he is 21 years old. His issue I would argue isn't hitting,  it is power and getting more line drives than ground balls.   He had a total of 12 HR in his prior 4 years.  He has 9 this year so far.  Mendez likely has to be a 15-20 home run profile to be a usable LF  even if it comes with a high average, high OBP.  For his scouting report he was 50 across the board except power was 40.  If he can get the power closer to 50 and the hit tool closer to 60,  that is a pretty decent player.  His stats are very similar to what Larnach did in AA season as a 22 year old.  

I am not sure how they re-organize all the prospects in the offseason but Mendez will likely start in AAA is my guess.  If not AA to make sure he is continuing to hit before he is moved up.  In 1-2 years I think you have a potential MLB player.  

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Yes Mendez has 40 man implications,  but he is 21 years old. His issue I would argue isn't hitting,  it is power and getting more line drives than ground balls.   He had a total of 12 HR in his prior 4 years.  He has 9 this year so far.  Mendez likely has to be a 15-20 home run profile to be a usable LF  even if it comes with a high average, high OBP.  For his scouting report he was 50 across the board except power was 40.  If he can get the power closer to 50 and the hit tool closer to 60,  that is a pretty decent player.  His stats are very similar to what Larnach did in AA season as a 22 year old.  

I am not sure how they re-organize all the prospects in the offseason but Mendez will likely start in AAA is my guess.  If not AA to make sure he is continuing to hit before he is moved up.  In 1-2 years I think you have a potential MLB player.  

Sure. I'm not really dissing Mendez: there's real potential there to become an MLB regular there. But he's not someone that will be ready to play in MLB at age 22 having never played above AA and not filling a premier defensive position. He seems like a classic guy to slide through the Rule 5 next year.

It's just too hard to stash players on the 26-man roster when teams are only running 13 position players and have a guy that isn't going to contribute. Twins had Kiersey for quite a while in that last man role, but he at least could add defense and speed on the bases that someone like Mendez doesn't. And even then, hardly anyone here wanted Kiersey sitting on the roster like that. That's my point on Mendez. It will be hard for even non-competitive teams like Colorado to stash him for a full season.

[DFlow]

As we saw at the deadline outside of Duran - picking up quality bullpen arms is fairly manageable. I expect we will be turning some deals before the 40 man cut off to get at least one to two bullpen arms to shore up that front. As much as I like Mendez and Gonzalez- I see them as fairly similar prospects and it would make sense they could tag up in a deal (unless one of them magically adds 1B). 

[bunsen82]

14 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Sure. I'm not really dissing Mendez: there's real potential there to become an MLB regular there. But he's not someone that will be ready to play in MLB at age 22 having never played above AA and not filling a premier defensive position. He seems like a classic guy to slide through the Rule 5 next year.

It's just too hard to stash players on the 26-man roster when teams are only running 13 position players and have a guy that isn't going to contribute. Twins had Kiersey for quite a while in that last man role, but he at least could add defense and speed on the bases that someone like Mendez doesn't. And even then, hardly anyone here wanted Kiersey sitting on the roster like that. That's my point on Mendez. It will be hard for even non-competitive teams like Colorado to stash him for a full season.

I fully agree with your assessment.  I think Mendez is insurance some of our big outfield prospects don't pan out/injured or is most likely a trade chip for the future. 

2023  Traded for Oliver Dunn  (rule 5 draft trade)  haha

2025  Traded for Bader   

If he continues to improve my guess is the trade will be better than 2 months of Bader.  

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, DFlow said:

As we saw at the deadline outside of Duran - picking up quality bullpen arms is fairly manageable. I expect we will be turning some deals before the 40 man cut off to get at least one to two bullpen arms to shore up that front. As much as I like Mendez and Gonzalez- I see them as fairly similar prospects and it would make sense they could tag up in a deal (unless one of them magically adds 1B). 

So we traded quality bullpen arms to get prospects to trade for bullpen arms?

[jorgenswest]

The first 40 man hurdle is the rule 5 draft. At that point they could have one catcher on the roster. That 40 man will be pretty out of balance. There could be far too many outfielders and not enough pitchers and catchers relative to how it might look entering spring training.

We added Outman, Roden and possibly Mendez to a group that includes Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Martin and McCusker. Add to that possibly Fedko, Rosario and Gonzalez. They won’t have 13 outfielders on the 40 man roster entering spring.

Outman and Roden should be considered for a DFA. Mendez may be left unprotected for the rule 5. Even if that happens ten is still too many and I hope Walker pushes somebody else off next spring.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The first 40 man hurdle is the rule 5 draft. At that point they could have one catcher on the roster. That 40 man will be pretty out of balance. There could be far too many outfielders and not enough pitchers and catchers relative to how it might look entering spring training.

We added Outman, Roden and possibly Mendez to a group that includes Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Martin and McCusker. Add to that possibly Fedko, Rosario and Gonzalez. They won’t have 13 outfielders on the 40 man roster entering spring.

Outman and Roden should be considered for a DFA. Mendez may be left unprotected for the rule 5. Even if that happens ten is still too many and I hope Walker pushes somebody else off next spring.

I mean, Martin and Kiersey are easy DFA at this point. (I'm shocked about Martin, maybe he fixes things). So is McCusker. Outman, don't get me started. I think Roden is protected, on the 40 man almost with certainty at this point. And Larnach is traded. 

I don't think they'll have too many OF on the 40 man next year, to start the year.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Most everyone assumes that Vasquez won't be back, and he is in the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken. But if he leaves, what do we do for a backup catcher? Even with this flurry of recent trades and waiver pickups, I don't really see anyone ready to step up and replace Vasquez. 

Some people think it's easy to replace a catcher. All you need is a bat.

It's very valuable to have a catcher who knows your pitchers & people have no idea how long it takes for a catcher to learn his pitchers, it's a never-ending process. It's a plus if you can skip that time with Vazquez, even in minimal use. And this is no excuse that we don't need a promising young MLB-ready catcher.

[Rosterman]

Shows the issues you have dealing for prospects at the Trade deadline. Teams are happy to get rid of guys on their own 40-man fringe that will be questionable in the off-season, as well as rid their rosters of possible upcoming Rule 5 guys, or hard arbitation decisions.

The Twins Rule 5 decisions are all guys that the Twins could've considered in trades if they were looking to buy. A few could've been added in packages to get future prospects, too.

The Twins are now faced with making decisions on spare aging outfielders James Outman and Alan Roden, while deciding the fate of Austin Martin, the need to add Hendry Mendez who will be a minor league free agent after next season and still is in AA ball, as well as Kala'i Rosario still in AA, and the younger Gabriel Gonzalez, amongst waiting for Emmanuel Rodrigues to play a season unhurt and the rising star of Walker Jenkins.

Lots of outfielders which means we have probably seen the last, also, of Carson McCusker and DaShawn Keirsey. All the while with Buxton, Wallner and Larnach holding down the fort. ANy pushing anyone to DH here?

I picture the Twins will carry a third catcher when rosters expand. Will it be giving Jhonny Pereda another look at major league pitching, or see if Noah Cardenas is the guy to protect. I doubt they worry about the need to protect Patrick WInkel. And Ricardo Olivar can probably escape Rule 5. For all his faults, Vasquez was still a good catcher working with the young pitchers (who runners steal on, more than the catcher). I picture the Twins will still keep Mickey Gasper on the 40-man, as a possible "off" if they sign a free agent.

There is no reason to keep Ryan Fritzgerald on the 40-man. I wish the Twins had packaged Julien or Miranda with another player at the deadline rather than just probably releasing them. Both are on the bubble and could stay on the 40-man with hopes of being someone next season, or packaged in the off-season. Again, you need people on the 40-man to jettison if you do sign a free agent. The Twins can probably avoid adding Nate Baez, Kyler Fedko or Tanner Schobel. All are fringe enough or there are others in the system as closer to the majors.  None of those three would be expected to make the roster out of spring training.

I would, personally, bring up Aaron Sabato now, and get him 20-30-40 at bats to see if he should be added to the roster as a possibvle 1B/DH going forth. He will be a minor league free agent and got thru the Rule 5 while languishing at AA ball too many seasons. Seems you should give a first rounder a chance, right?

The Twins have to quit signing minor league free agents hoping they will be the next Brock Stewart, Matt WInsler, Brandon Kintzler, or even the return of Michael Tonkin (signed for a $1m and thus making the Twins deicde between keeping him or lefty Brent Headrick or young Ronny Henriquez in the spring). You can throw a few spots on the AAA roster to minor league guys you might wish to run thru the bullpen (Scott Blewett), but keep them off the 40-man.

And amidst the fact that the Twins have 10 pitchers classified as rotation arms on their 40-man, you are going to add Kendry Rojas. You also have to add Christian MacLeod, although he may be better suited to the bullpen as not sure if he will get enough innings in 2026 to build as a starter at AAA. He could contribute out of the pen next season.

CJ Culpepper, Cory Lewis, John Klein, Andrew Morris, and the young Jose Olivares fall in behind the cadre of 24-25-26 year olds currently on the Twins roster. Shows the futrue rotation depth near the majors. Someone will have to become a bullpen arm. None need a 40-man spot next year.

Connor Prelipp does need a 40-man spot. Too bad Canterino won't also be ready for 2026. It is arms like these, if healthy, that justify trading away your bullpen in a lackluster year. Of course, the following all need to go elsewhere: Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Misiewicz,  Brooks Krista, Noah Davis, Michael Tonkin. You can keep Kody Funderburk because he is still a lefthander, and maybe Travis Adams - again, you need names to remove IF you sign a free agent. But both could be replacable.

There are 20 names on the 40-man roster that the Twins would not miss. 9 could be kept, are on the bubble, whatever. There are six (Rojas, Prielipp, MacLeod, Cardenas, Sabato, Gonzalez) that I feel MUST be added, which is the usual number that happens in most off-seasons.

[FlyingFinn]

9 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Rojas, Prielipp, MacLeod, Cardenas, Sabato, Gonzalez

Possible but I don't have MacLeod or Sabato being added (Sabato more often bats in the 7-9 positions than in the 3-5 spots in the order and that tells me what the Twins think about him). And I would add Morris.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

Possible but I don't have MacLeod or Sabato being added (Sabato more often bats in the 7-9 positions than in the 3-5 spots in the order and that tells me what the Twins think about him).

I agree they don't need to protect MacLeod or Sabato. I mean, they aren't even giving Sabato a shot right now......who else is going to do so?

[farmerguychris]

5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Well, that's my question. If they have someone to replace Vasquez, who will it be?

I feel confident in saying it Vazquez will be replaced by someone on a minimum salary.  They will not be competitive, so why even consider paying Vazquez the lowest amount he would consider?  This is subject to change if we can get a sale done - obviously.

[Jacksson]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Pereda looks like he COULD be a help next season. You are right; he seems to have more offense than Vasquez. Besides him, most of the promising catchers in our system are still a year or two or three years away. I can't see the Twins spending much or any money on a free agent catcher next season. 

And yet NO CATCHER was drafted this year.  

What does that tell you about the abilities of the front office??

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Jacksson said:

And yet NO CATCHER was drafted this year.  

What does that tell you about the abilities of the front office??

They traded for two, and have Diaw and the other guy who's name I can't recall. 

No pass from me, we are three years into the awful Vazquez deal, and they don't have a replacement.....but I used ot think they ignored C, turns out they just stink at drafting and developing them other than Jeffers in 9 years....

[Jacksson]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

So we traded quality bullpen arms to get prospects to trade for bullpen arms?

We traded the bullpen arms because they were going to get expensive in the near future, so the Pohlad's could dump Correa and use the savings from the bullpen and other player trades to raise the money to ship to Houston along with Correa without having to dig into the Pohlad warchest of money, if the team ends up not being sold, to save the Pohlad family payroll dollars in 2026, 2027, etc., and by dumping the Correa contract and the future financial obligations to the bullpen, to make the team more attractive and manageable to potential new owners.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be surprised if outman isn't DFA. Still can't figure out this trade. 

I'd take a flyer on Mendez if I was a team without much offense. 

I'd be shocked if he was. Why trade for him at all? They weren't saving money. He's league minimum. They have to believe in him to some extent and can't just non-tender him without giving him some run. I think he has the 4th OF spot in 2026 locked up already. I think he could hit .000 for the rest of the AAA season this year and be the 4th OF next year. Assuming this FO is still in charge. If they're all fired it changes everything.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I'd be shocked if he was. Why trade for him at all? They weren't saving money. He's league minimum. They have to believe in him to some extent and can't just non-tender him without giving him some run. I think he has the 4th OF spot in 2026 locked up already. I think he could hit .000 for the rest of the AAA season this year and be the 4th OF next year. Assuming this FO is still in charge. If they're all fired it changes everything.

Criminal. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

The first 40 man hurdle is the rule 5 draft. At that point they could have one catcher on the roster. That 40 man will be pretty out of balance. There could be far too many outfielders and not enough pitchers and catchers relative to how it might look entering spring training.

We added Outman, Roden and possibly Mendez to a group that includes Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Martin and McCusker. Add to that possibly Fedko, Rosario and Gonzalez. They won’t have 13 outfielders on the 40 man roster entering spring.

Outman and Roden should be considered for a DFA. Mendez may be left unprotected for the rule 5. Even if that happens ten is still too many and I hope Walker pushes somebody else off next spring.

If it's a new FO I could see Outman and Roden being possible DFA/non-tenders, but I don't see any way possible this FO would even consider that. You're essentially suggesting the Twins traded Brock Stewart and Louie Varland for Kendry Rojas at that point. They aren't cutting those guys 2 months after trading for them. 

Larnach is definitely on the non-tender/trade block. I don't see any chance Keirsey makes it through the winter on the 40-man. Unless they actually give McCusker a chance in the majors over the next 2 months or shift him to 1B, I'd be shocked if he makes it through. Mendez will be interesting to track. I expect Pereda to make it through the offseason on the roster. Martin likely playing for his Twins career the rest of the season. May only have to show signs of life, but can't have a bunch more games like last night.

Buxton, Rodriguez, Wallner, Outman, Roden locked in if this FO still in charge. The rest probably fighting for their 40-man lives.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

If it's a new FO I could see Outman and Roden being possible DFA/non-tenders,

There is zero chance Roden is DFA'd next year, this FO or a new one. I really don't understand why Twins fans have quit on the guy already. 

 

[Nshore]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

If it's a new FO I could see Outman and Roden being possible DFA/non-tenders, but I don't see any way possible this FO would even consider that. You're essentially suggesting the Twins traded Brock Stewart and Louie Varland for Kendry Rojas at that point. They aren't cutting those guys 2 months after trading for them. 

Larnach is definitely on the non-tender/trade block. I don't see any chance Keirsey makes it through the winter on the 40-man. Unless they actually give McCusker a chance in the majors over the next 2 months or shift him to 1B, I'd be shocked if he makes it through. Mendez will be interesting to track. I expect Pereda to make it through the offseason on the roster. Martin likely playing for his Twins career the rest of the season. May only have to show signs of life, but can't have a bunch more games like last night.

Buxton, Rodriguez, Wallner, Outman, Roden locked in if this FO still in charge. The rest probably fighting for their 40-man lives.

I agree with you on Wallner and this front office.  Having said that, and realizing he's a local boy, he's struggled to hit his weight this year or even stay above the Mendoza line at times.  Maybe he gets forced out by some of the young talent sooner rather than later.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Nshore said:

I agree with you on Wallner and this front office.  Having said that, and realizing he's a local boy, he's struggled to hit his weight this year or even stay about the Mendoza line at times.  Maybe he gets forced out by some of the young talent sooner rather than later.

Wallner would have 1.5 fWAR if he'd been healthy all year. What is it people have against this guy?

[TopGunn#22]

This is what makes getting Outman in the Dodger deal so hard to understand.  Stewart had far greater value than Outman without even considering the over-supply of LH hitting OF.  On top of that, you've got the perplexing Varland deal.  And we could have/should have gotten a little more for Castro.

I think the Twins will be making a BUNCH of moves this off season.  We aren't keeping all these LH hitting OF's.  Cardenas is a possible #2 catcher, but I could see a deal involving a LH hitting OF (Wallner, Larnach) and a major league SP to bring in a young catcher.  Jefferson Quero is still buried behind William Contreras in Milwaukee.  The White Sox have TWO good young Catchers. (Kyle Teel & Edgar Quero).   A new FO just might have the smarts and talent to make a deal that brings us a "Catcher of the Future" that allows Tait or Jimenez to join that guy, making Jeffers expendable in a season or two.

I'm thinking Wallner or Larnach with SWR to the White Sox for either Teel or Quero.  Look, we can afford to move one of Wallner or Larnach as well as SWR to get one of those guys.  We would then have Teel (I'm just picking him for now) AND Jeffers for 2026.  Monitor how Tait and Jimenez progress in 2026.  Jeffers & Teel in 2027.  By 2028 it's time to move on from Jeffers and go with Teel and Tait.  Roden is a better fielder than both Wallner and Larnach.  Outman is as well.  You've got Jenkins and E-Rod possibly coming by post 2026 All Star game.  Start dealing from your strength in LH hitting OF and SP and start shaping this roster up.  

 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Nshore said:

I agree with you on Wallner and this front office.  Having said that, and realizing he's a local boy, he's struggled to hit his weight this year or even stay above the Mendoza line at times.  Maybe he gets forced out by some of the young talent sooner rather than later.

He has a 119 OPS+. .812 OPS. There isn't a front office in baseball that would DFA him.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

There is zero chance Roden is DFA'd next year, this FO or a new one. I really don't understand why Twins fans have quit on the guy already. 

 

Zero chance? You would've DFA'd Martin last year/this year and Roden is putting up essentially the same bWAR with significantly worse offensive numbers at the same age. I didn't guarantee he's DFA'd nor have I given up on him, but suggesting there's "zero chance" he's DFA'd is just as crazy as you think giving up on him would be. It's absolutely a possibility if he has a repeat performance and there's a new front office here who didn't bring him here.

[Nshore]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner would have 1.5 fWAR if he'd been healthy all year. What is it people have against this guy?

All I know is he's 27 years old in the prime of his career and is hitting .214.  That being said, I hope he blossoms into Babe Ruth.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Zero chance?

Correct. Zero chance. 

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

You would've DFA'd Martin last year

I don't know that I ever said I would do that, and doubt I did considering he had 2 option years remaining, in fact I seem to recall saying something to the effect that he can stay on the 40 man as long as he has options but is just a bad player due to his inability to play the OF and that he shouldn't be counted on.