Gonzalez: "The Sense is That At Least One of [Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax] Will Be Traded"

[Matthew Lenz]

Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have not been officially made available to clubs, although the Minnesota Twins are reportedly open to offers on both players. Moreover, it has been reported that the Twins are seeking at least multiple top-100 prospects for either of the relievers, if they were to be dealt.

Alden Gonzalez of ESPN took things a step further yesterday, reporting that "the sense is one of [Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax] will be traded." Aside from Cleveland Guardians' closer Emmanuel Clase, Duran and Jax are the two best relievers potentially available on the market. In addition to elite production, both players are controllable through the 2027 season, which makes their value that much more significant.

Through 46 appearances and 46.1 innings pitched, Duran boasts an impressive 1.94 ERA with 16 saves plus holds to boot. The fire baller has maintained his high-strikeout, relatively low-walk profile with a K% of 26.4% and a BB% of 8.3%, resulting in a solid K-BB% of 18.1%. Notably, he allowed his first home run in more than 76 innings pitched (dating back to 2024) against Shohei Ohtani earlier this week.

Jax's surface-level stats are still recovering from a tough start to the season, but the righty carries a 4.09 ERA of 44 innings with 20 holds on the season. He boasts a K% of 37.9% while maintaining a strong BB% of 5.6%, which results in an outstanding K-BB% of 32.3%. 

Do you think the Twins should trade one, both, or neither of there elite relievers. Join the conversation in the comments!

View full rumor

[Dman]

It depends.  Can they get something they need for them?  I wouldn't just trade to trade. They don't need another second baseman and I would argue don't need a shortstop right now.  They have three outfielders arguably in their top 5 prospects so whoever they get would have to be really, really good to beat out the two that are already in top 100 lists.  

A catcher would be ideal because they don't have much in the system there and if they don't plan on paying Jeffers he might be gone after next year.

Can always use quality arms, but teams are hard pressed to give them up, but that could be a focus.  Whatever they get has to be greater than what they would get from one of the games elite closers who will likely continue to be one of the best in baseball the next three years and beyond.

The team trading for Duran or Jax is getting a known quantity.  The Twins are getting a maybe on two guys that might be great, good, or not work out at all.  In let's make a deal, hopefully they choose the right door. The risk is on their end IMO so they need to ask for a lot.

[Doctor Gast]

I want only young impact MLB-ready players that fill our needs, so that means catcher & SP. That means no lotto tickets or redundant players. I'm afraid that Falvey doesn't know what we really need so he'll go with what looks good on paper. Heaven help us!

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I want only young impact MLB-ready players that fill our needs, so that means catcher & SP. That means no lotto tickets or redundant players. I'm afraid that Falvey doesn't know what we really need so he'll go with what looks good on paper. Heaven help us!

While I agree with what we need (primarily a catcher), I don't think it is fair to suggest a long-time baseball pro who has had his share of success in the industry 'doesn't know what we really need.' 

I mean, c'mon, man.

[twinstalker]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

While I agree with what we need (primarily a catcher), I don't think it is fair to suggest a long-time baseball pro who has had his share of success in the industry 'doesn't know what we really need.' 

I mean, c'mon, man.

Falvey's made some moves that give us reason to question him.  Drafting, alone, is reason to question him.  If he makes a trade for a few guys people here really want, then he'll really be poor at his job.  Irony!  Honestly, Falvey is in charge of drafting, of developing hitters and pitchers, and of identifying talent that should be brought into the organization.  The only things he apparently has done right is identifying pitchers and developing them.  (and yes, I understand he delegates)

[tony&rodney]

15 hours ago, Dman said:

The team trading for Duran or Jax is getting a known quantity.  The Twins are getting a maybe on two guys that might be great, good, or not work out at all.  In let's make a deal, hopefully they choose the right door. The risk is on their end IMO so they need to ask for a lot.

This has to be remembered every time someone thinks of a potential idea for a deal. The Twins know this and so do all the other teams in baseball. Because of how good both Jax and Duran are at their jobs and because they have two years remaining after this year, I would think there has to be at least one team ready to pay a very high price. If not, the Twins still have these guys on their roster.

Seattle looks to be prepared to add players for a postseason run. Harry Ford and one of Jonny Farmelo, Logan Evans, Colt Emerson, Ryan Sloan would be my ask from the Mariners for Jax.

Philadelphia has some serious talent entering free agency after this season and their window is as tight as any team in baseball. They are in need of a closer among other pieces. There is a possible huge deal here. My thought is Duran, Castro, Bader, Coulombe, C. J. Culpepper, and Yasser Mercedes for Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, and Eduardo Tait. Seems like a high price on both sides, especially for Philly and it includes too many players for a typical transaction. It does give Philadelphia some good players for the 2025 push.

The Twins do not need to make a deal that doesn't suit them and they certainly do not need to trade both relievers. Naturally, there is no way to know how other teams or the Twins value any of these players. Jax and Duran are known (proven to be excellent) quantities. The prospects are exactly that, prospects.

[ashbury]

I would like to gear up for 2026, and not a lengthy rebuild.  I would not be trading any established talent under team control for next year, and barring any revolting developments the rest of 2025 I'd be aggressive on acquiring more during the offseason.

So if either Jax or Duran is traded for anything at all this month, I would like to know what the FO's vision actually is.  Especially if only one is traded - if it's not a teardown then what are we actually doing?  Trading one is treading water.

Trade one, then trade both - and a whole lot more too.  But the fanbase is paltry enough as it is.  Not my preference.

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Falvey's made some moves that give us reason to question him.  Drafting, alone, is reason to question him.  If he makes a trade for a few guys people here really want, then he'll really be poor at his job.  Irony!  Honestly, Falvey is in charge of drafting, of developing hitters and pitchers, and of identifying talent that should be brought into the organization.  The only things he apparently has done right is identifying pitchers and developing them.  (and yes, I understand he delegates)

Thanks, Twinstalker. I was a big supporter of Falvine. Falvey was hired because he was part of the CLE pitching pipeline. IMO, after 9 yrs., he has established a pitching pipeline (though some may debate that), as fragile as it is. That's where his expertise is at, I give him credit for that. But everywhere else, he has no clue. There has been a lot of mystery in whose responsibility lies between Levine, Baldelli & himself. But I believe that Levine was more responsible for the other half, which was not pitching-related. After '19 "bomba squad" success, Falvey was lauded & glorified as the one responsible, then it seemed that it all went to his head. He took over more & more of the control. As the head, he copied the NYY model of HRs are everything & forget about everything else. He thinks analytics solves everything, with no understanding or feel for the game. Instead of promoting the good coaches we had to secure their employment, he let them go. And hired & promoted coaches with his mindset or at least don't question him.

I'm sorry that I'm so pessimistic about Falvey's ability to fill our needs via trade. But I see areas that are fragile that are not being shored up, & past history of trying to fill those needs via trade has not worked out. Granted some good transactions have fallen into his lap. Falvey is lucky that the pitching hasn't unraveled completely but still fragile. INF has gotten better internally in spite of his early insistence of playing Julien at 2B, but still needs improvement. Plus, Jeffers & Vazquez have remained remarkably healthy; otherwise, we'd be competing with CO for the worst team in baseball. On top of that, Falvey loves prospects. In '23, our window was open; Falvey has squandered the last 2 yrs.. That window is closing. Trading Jax or Duran will further compromise our situation of competing in the future. If we trade either of them, we have to make sure we shore up our fragile areas, NOW, not 2 or more years down the road. Lotto tickets (prospects) or redundant players won't do it. Forgive me if I think that if other FOs would offer Falvey, prospects & redundant players that look good on paper, Falvey would be deeply tempted to take it. Then we just as well as tear the whole thing down & jam pack our system with redundant prospects.

[Vanimal46]

Had this on my mind this morning… We’ve been talking about acquiring prospects in return for our established players… Trading MLB talent for MLB talent is rare, but it would be interesting to find a team with a surplus of MLB bats in exchange for our surplus of MLB arms. 

So I’m looking through FanGraphs and see C Drake Baldwin for Atlanta. Who will be blocked by Sean Murphy for the foreseeable future. Is there a package we can put together to acquire him? That way Atlanta can reload for another run in 2026 and same with our Twins. 

Pittsburgh is one of the worst development teams in the league. Can we find a fix for former 1st overall pick Henry Davis? Perhaps in exchange for Larnach or Wallner?

Just wanted to throw some ideas out for thought. Maybe I’m crazy. 

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I would like to gear up for 2026, and not a lengthy rebuild.  I would not be trading any established talent under team control for next year, and barring any revolting developments the rest of 2025 I'd be aggressive on acquiring more during the offseason.

So if either Jax or Duran is traded for anything at all this month, I would like to know what the FO's vision actually is.  Especially if only one is traded - if it's not a teardown then what are we actually doing?  Trading one is treading water.

Trade one, trade both - and a whole lot more too.  But the fanbase is paltry enough as it is.  Not my preference.

I would like to know WHO the front office is in 2026. Do we even know who's vision will be used?

Just trade expiring contracts. Trading controllable players only makes a mess for someone else to clean up. Most likely. Probably. Hopefully.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I would like to gear up for 2026, and not a lengthy rebuild.  I would not be trading any established talent under team control for next year, and barring any revolting developments the rest of 2025 I'd be aggressive on acquiring more during the offseason.

So if either Jax or Duran is traded for anything at all this month, I would like to know what the FO's vision actually is.  Especially if only one is traded - if it's not a teardown then what are we actually doing?  Trading one is treading water.

Trade one, then trade both - and a whole lot more too.  But the fanbase is paltry enough as it is.  Not my preference.

That's where I'm at.

Trade one of Jax/Duran? 

No. Both or neither.  

And if it's both, strip it down to the framing.  

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I would like to know WHO the front office is in 2026. Do we even know who's vision will be used?

Just trade expiring contracts. Trading controllable players only makes a mess for someone else to clean up. Most likely. Probably. Hopefully.

Fair point, but inaction on account of this can be just as deadly.  I prefer to use 2025 as Falvey's audition for the unknown new owners (who he might have a very good idea the identity of).  As long as he doesn't sell the family cow for some magic beans, if a new FO is brought in, they can do a course correction on anything done the rest of this season.  Moreover, I'd put odds nearly fifty - fifty that Falvey's in charge a year from now, so why tie his hands?

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Fair point, but inaction on account of this can be just as deadly.  I prefer to use 2025 as Falvey's audition for the unknown new owners (who he might have a very good idea the identity of).  As long as he doesn't sell the cow for some magic beans, if a new FO is brought in, they can do a course correction on anything done the rest of this season.  Moreover, I'd put odds nearly fifty - fifty that Falvey's in charge a year from now, so why tie his hands?

Job security or no job security, I'd tie his hands based solely on his track record of mid-season trades. They've been pretty brutal. His off-season trades have been pretty dang good overall though. Broader bidding pool and I doubt you get much more for 2 years of a reliever vs 2 years and 2 months anyway. Plus, obviously a better indication if he's here longer than this season.

I'm putting his odds closer to 30-70 though. Even if new owners like Falvey (and I like much of what he's done) it just seems that this organization has such a toxic relationship with the fanbase right now that they'll want to scrub it as clean as possible if only to win everyone back. But it could also be a situation where new owners are diligent and want to sit and evaluate everything for a year, so year one (whenever that may be) may still stink of Pohlad.

[Whitey333]

So what has Falvey done for the Twins?  He sells hope, promise and what is.  He's very good at that.  But let's face it.  His results have been very mediocre.  He has been here 9 years i believe.  During this time he has produced one team with at least 90 wins.  They have missed the playoffs 3 of past 4 years while he keeps telling us how good the team and farm system.  My contention is he is ruining this franchise.  The young core  they keep talking about has been way overrated and regressing in nature.  He doesn't trade for a pitcher unless it has arm troubles lol.  He has created this mess but I don't know if he can fix it.  The best thing a new owner could do is dump both Falvey and Baldelli.  Then dump some of the coaches and minor league people.  This organization needs a thorough housecleaning.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Whitey333 said:

So what has Falvey done for the Twins?  He sells hope, promise and what is.  He's very good at that.  But let's face it.  His results have been very mediocre.  He has been here 9 years i believe.  During this time he has produced one team with at least 90 wins.  They have missed the playoffs 3 of past 4 years while he keeps telling us how good the team and farm system.  My contention is he is ruining this franchise.  The young core  they keep talking about has been way overrated and regressing in nature.  He doesn't trade for a pitcher unless it has arm troubles lol.  He has created this mess but I don't know if he can fix it.  The best thing a new owner could do is dump both Falvey and Baldelli.  Then dump some of the coaches and minor league people.  This organization needs a thorough housecleaning.

I mean, there is a lot to like here, but Pablo and Joe completely disprove one of your facts. I agree, he's created this mess and I don't think he's the right one to fix it because of that....

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

But it could also be a situation where new owners are diligent and want to sit and evaluate everything for a year, so year one (whenever that may be) may still stink of Pohlad.

That, plus the possibility there's no new owner at all, factors into the nearly fifty percent I suggested.

Anyway, congrats, we've converted a thread on two specific deadline deals into yet another plebiscite on Falvey's tenure.  My work today is complete.  😀

[LambchoP]

I hope we DON'T trade any of Duran Jax or Ryan. If we are planning to compete next year, we need them. Our weakest positions are catcher and possibly SP. Bullpens are as important now as they've ever been. Hold onto our three best pitchers please.

[TheLeviathan]

I would just like to push back on the idea that trading Brock Stewart and one of Jax or Duran derails 2026.....

The Twins have shown a great capacity for turning guys into effective relievers and doing so fairly quickly.  Leveraging that into an addition to help the position player group seems to be the best path to contention in 2026.

I'm hanging up the phone on offers for A ball prospects.  But 24 year olds in AA or AAA?  I'm all ears on one of those guys.  We need more talent in the every day lineup or the bullpen is wasted.

[Vanimal46]

Latest and greatest from Gleeman. 

[arby58]

On 7/25/2025 at 12:22 AM, twinstalker said:

Falvey's made some moves that give us reason to question him.  Drafting, alone, is reason to question him.  If he makes a trade for a few guys people here really want, then he'll really be poor at his job.  Irony!  Honestly, Falvey is in charge of drafting, of developing hitters and pitchers, and of identifying talent that should be brought into the organization.  The only things he apparently has done right is identifying pitchers and developing them.  (and yes, I understand he delegates)

The statement was "Falvey doesn't know what we really need" which isn't the same as questioning decision making. Falvey and the rest of the front office 'know what we really need' - you can question whether they execute it, but this base claim is baseless.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

On 7/25/2025 at 9:46 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Had this on my mind this morning… We’ve been talking about acquiring prospects in return for our established players… Trading MLB talent for MLB talent is rare, but it would be interesting to find a team with a surplus of MLB bats in exchange for our surplus of MLB arms. 

So I’m looking through FanGraphs and see C Drake Baldwin for Atlanta. Who will be blocked by Sean Murphy for the foreseeable future. Is there a package we can put together to acquire him? That way Atlanta can reload for another run in 2026 and same with our Twins. 

Pittsburgh is one of the worst development teams in the league. Can we find a fix for former 1st overall pick Henry Davis? Perhaps in exchange for Larnach or Wallner?

Just wanted to throw some ideas out for thought. Maybe I’m crazy. 

With the season Atlanta is having, more likely their willing to trade Murphy.