Matt Wallner Will Be Just Fine

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Heading into 2025, Matt Wallner was arguably the Twins’ second-best hitter. Despite periods of significant struggles (and even a demotion to begin last season), the left-handed slugger had posted a .254/.371/.515 line in 2024, good for 49% above league average. He looked the part while posting an .847 OPS this March and April, before pulling a hamstring. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been nearly as productive since returning.

In 78 plate appearances since being activated off the IL, Wallner is slashing .155/.231/.394. He’s shown some power, but not much else. The lack of consistency has contributed to the Twins’ struggling offense, and the subsequent nosedive in the team’s outlook for the rest of the season. As we know all too well, this offensive profile is tough to watch when it’s not clicking.

We’ve seen Wallner completely lose the ability to make contact in the past. While it may feel like it, whiffs aren’t Wallner’s issue since returning from the IL. He has maintained a strikeout rate under 30% for the season and during the stretch since his return, which is an improvement over the 36.4% rate he posted in 2024. Instead, the issue seems to be with the contact Wallner is making. 

Matt Wallner has the worst batting average on balls in play in June, and a .150 mark since being activated. For reference, Wallner’s career mark is .336, as (despite his flyball tendencies) the way he punishes baseballs when he makes contact helps them find the grass at an above-average rate. The issue during his current rough stretch is his nearly 30% infield flyball rate. Not only is he getting under the ball, he’s hitting it straight up in the air, where there’s no chance for it to fall for a hit. Matt Trueblood wrote about this Monday; the change in trajectory comes from a flatter swing path. Even taking this into account, though, it’s probably safe to say that bad batted-ball luck is still playing a part in such a low BABIP.

As a whole, Wallner’s profile is only a slight step below his 2024 season and, in some ways, it actually looks better. His expected batting average is nearly identical, and his expected slugging and xwOBA are just a few points off of his elite 2024 marks. His hard-hit rate is still over 50%, and he’s striking out less and walking more. 

Twins fans seem to have soured on Wallner’s plate approach, after watching Miguel Sanó and Joey Gallo types in recent years. His swing-and-miss, high-power profile is a necessary complement to the rest of the Twins’ lineup, though. The Twins have transitioned to a team that makes a lot of contact, and it hasn’t gone particularly well. The entire lineup (save Byron Buxton) is doing next to nothing lately. While Wallner’s struggles are the ugliest to watch, he’s also likelier than just about anyone else to turn a corner and help carry the offense when he’s locked in.

We’ve seen Wallner at his lowest, when he’s completely lost at the plate. His recent struggles are nothing like that. We know he's struggling with some mechanical issues that are causing all of the infield fly balls, with some bad luck mixed in along the way. His timing is also off, perhaps as a result of the injury-inflicted layoff. The Twins have also faced a gauntlet of left-handed pitching, and he’s been consistently left in the lineup in those matchups for the first time in his career.

It may not be enjoyable to watch right now, but Wallner will be just fine. While it’s unfortunate that his struggles are occurring in tandem with the rest of the lineup, his numbers look close enough to 2024, when he posted a near-.850 OPS. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be back to himself shortly.

View full article

[Doc Munson]

Wallner has ALWAYS struggled early in seasons in his careers, and has ALWAYS (or nearly always) come on strong in second halves. I expect nothing different this year.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The problem is that people watch player performances like day traders on the stock market.  Take the longer view.  He will be fine.  

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The problem is that people watch player performances like day traders on the stock market.  Take the longer view.  He will be fine.  

How long must the longer term view be taken?  1 month, 1 year, 34 years?  The team is vastly undermanned, has terrible coaching and Apathetic leadership.  And what is 'fine' for Wallner, almost 28 and has 35 career home runs?  and his strength is power.  Does he get a 'longer view' since he's one of us?  His stats are comparable to Kody Clemons.

the team should sell any positive asset and rebuild.  Not sure Wallner is one or not.

 

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, Doc Munson said:

Wallner has ALWAYS struggled early in seasons in his careers, and has ALWAYS (or nearly always) come on strong in second halves. I expect nothing different this year.

ALWAYS meaning just last year? 

[Vanimal46]

I’m guilty of believing in Wallner too much this year. He is supposed to be our slugger in the lineup and he only has 10 RBI as we near the end of June. I repeat - 10 RBI. 

[DocBauer]

In his career, MILB and at the ML level he's certainly had rough streaks. Then again, everyone does. At every stop we've watched him grow, develop, produce and advance. 

I'm very encouraged about his lower K rate this season. But his timing is definitely off. And when we watch the offense...hell the entire team right now...struggle it magnifies anyone having a bad go. I think he's going to be just fine. The question remains how long before he gets in a groove and gets comfortable again. I hope it's not long because we really need him right now.

The entire team needs a spark right now.

[TwinsDr2021]

This article is written like Wallner has played more than 75 games in a year at the major league level and will just be a return to normal thing. Now I believe he will turn it around but I am also positive as a full time player he will never be 49% above league average,

the left-handed slugger had posted a .254/.371/.515 line in 2024, good for 49% above league average

This such a misleading stat because of the way the Twins handled him (Not hitting against lefties), maybe add the disclaimer most of this has come against weak right handed pitching. 

But it has been 20 games and 77 plate appearances. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

11 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

How long must the longer term view be taken?  1 month, 1 year, 34 years?  The team is vastly undermanned, has terrible coaching and Apathetic leadership.  And what is 'fine' for Wallner, almost 28 and has 35 career home runs?  and his strength is power.  Does he get a 'longer view' since he's one of us?  His stats are comparable to Kody Clemons.

the team should sell any positive asset and rebuild.  Not sure Wallner is one or not.

 

Well, prior to this year he had approximately one year (a little bit more) of plate appearances with some pretty excellent results (35 HR, 131 OPS+).  This year, in approximately 20% of a season’s worth of plate appearances (remember, he was out with an injury for quite a while), he’s so terrible that he is still at a 99 OPS+.  So, based on his track record, I think he is worth taking more time on.  He has been, and still is a good player, but not an MVP candidate.  We need more of those, not less.  As to whether he is a positive asset, it seems fairly obvious that he is.  

If you want to “sell any positive asset and rebuild”, be ready for some very sad baseball for the rest of the year and next year at least.  We don’t have a bunch of prospects that are MLB ready and breaking down the door to replace the traded players, and it is likely any prospects acquired will be a year (or a few) away from the majors as well.  Would it be as bad as last year’s White Sox?   Maybe. Maybe not, but I would just as soon allow them to keep that dubious distinction and not put that in the record books on the Twins ledger.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

12 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

His stats are comparable to Kody Clemons.

[LambchoP]

I'm not so sure. I love his power potential, but so far we've seen him go into these prolonged slumps were he looks lost at the plate and is a K machine. Then he goes on a tear and hits 6 HR in two weeks. If he can find a way to be a bit more consistent it would be great. I know that most won't agree but at this point I'd rather see Larnach in the box over Wallner....

[Mike Sixel]

They've handled him such that he's super successful.

They don't know how to manage players. 

People hold both those thoughts at the same time....

[Road trip]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m guilty of believing in Wallner too much this year. He is supposed to be our slugger in the lineup and he only has 10 RBI as we near the end of June. I repeat - 10 RBI. 

Sure... but he missed multiple weeks, having played only 39 games.  And spent all of April in the leadoff spot.  And y'know how many plate appearances he has had with runners in scoring position this year?  A grand total of 20 !!!  Now he hasn't done well in those 20 pa's, but he hasn't exactly had a lot of opportunity to drive in runs.

I don't expect him to turn into an RBI machine... he strikes out too much to do that.  But there is a lot of context to his 10 RBI this year.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Sure... but he missed multiple weeks, having played only 39 games.  And spent all of April in the leadoff spot.  And y'know how many plate appearances he has had with runners in scoring position this year?  A grand total of 20 !!!  Now he hasn't done well in those 20 pa's, but he hasn't exactly had a lot of opportunity to drive in runs.

I don't expect him to turn into an RBI machine... he strikes out too much to do that.  But there is a lot of context to his 10 RBI this year.

Twenty at bats with runners in scoring position, and people are mad he doesn't have more RBI......

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've handled him such that he's super successful.

They don't know how to manage players. 

People hold both those thoughts at the same time....

First l like Wallner and think he is probably a top 20 guy in the majors against right handed pitchers.

But if somebody believes they have handled him super successful, aren't you saying that is really all he is, a really good/great side of a platoon that is lacking in speed and defense? Then IMO don't compare him to guys that don't platoon and don't project what his stats could be. 

I think it is fair to say they have put him in positions to be successful but at the same time it may of cost him the opportunity to fully develop into a full time major league player and dare I say all star type player? 

This will be his 4th season in the majors and likely will still not have played 110 games.  I understand injuries are a part of the reason but it is really hard to know what kind of player he is until he is given the opportunity or takes that opportunity. I am the type of person that lives in reality not hypotheticals and wishful thinking. Like I have said many times before I think he can be really good but until he can prove it or be allowed to prove it, he what he is, and that isn't a bad thing (you minus this terrible month of June)

[twinzcynic]

Bro, don't give up on Eddie Julien bro. He's just a bit selective please bro. Just look at his expected stats, he's can't miss bro.

-Twins daily 1 year ago

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

First l like Wallner and think he is probably a top 20 guy in the majors against right handed pitchers.

But if somebody believes they have handled him super successful, aren't you saying that is really all he is, a really good/great side of a platoon that is lacking in speed and defense? Then IMO don't compare him to guys that don't platoon and don't project what his stats could be. 

I think it is fair to say they have put him in positions to be successful but at the same time it may of cost him the opportunity to fully develop into a full time major league player and dare I say all star type player? 

This will be his 4th season in the majors and likely will still not have played 110 games.  I understand injuries are a part of the reason but it is really hard to know what kind of player he is until he is given the opportunity or takes that opportunity. I am the type of person that lives in reality not hypotheticals and wishful thinking. Like I have said many times before I think he can be really good but until he can prove it or be allowed to prove it, he what he is, and that isn't a bad thing (you minus this terrible month of June)

I'm not saying that, others are! I thought I made that clear, but maybe not.

I'd play him every day. And find out what kind of player he really is. His D has been worse that year, and that's an issue for sure (along with the hitting, but it's still average). 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

Bro, don't give up on Eddie Julien bro. He's just a bit selective please bro. Just look at his expected stats, he's can't miss bro.

-Twins daily 1 year ago

If you gave up on every guy that ever struggled, Hunter would not have played past year 2.....I guess you could give up on every player that ever struggled, but it would be hard to have a team.

[Road trip]

31 minutes ago, twinzcynic said:

Bro, don't give up on Eddie Julien bro. He's just a bit selective please bro. Just look at his expected stats, he's can't miss bro.

-Twins daily 1 year ago

Bro, Ortiz is hurt too much bro. He just hits homers and can't defend and will cost us a cool million to keep so releasing him will save some cash.

- Twins Daily, 20 years ago.

No, Wallner won't become Ortiz.  But fortunately or unfortunately, he's by far the best option we've got.  There is nobody knocking the door down from AAA.

 

[Road trip]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you gave up on every guy that ever struggled, Hunter would not have played past year 2.....I guess you could give up on every player that ever struggled, but it would be hard to have a team.

If struggling is his current OPS+ of 102, that's a pretty nice floor.  We know the ceiling potential is significantly higher.  His career OPS+ remains 131.  I believe in Twins history that only Killebrew exceeds that mark.  Carew and Oliva each hit an OPS+ of exactly 131 for their career.

Wallner probably won't maintain a 131 for his career... almost nobody does.  Bet he finishes his career a lot higher than this year's 102 though...

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Road trip said:

If struggling is his current OPS+ of 102, that's a pretty nice floor.  We know the ceiling potential is significantly higher.  His career OPS+ remains 131.  I believe in Twins history that only Killebrew exceeds that mark.  Carew and Oliva each hit an OPS+ of exactly 131 for their career.

Wallner probably won't maintain a 131 for his career... almost nobody does.  Bet he finishes his career a lot higher than this year's 102 though...

Concur.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you gave up on every guy that ever struggled, Hunter would not have played past year 2.....I guess you could give up on every player that ever struggled, but it would be hard to have a team.

If one did not give uo on failed rookies, there would be no life career AAA players, but there are.

Maybe Wallner go to AAA and break Mike Hessman's record.

[tony&rodney]

We sure hope Wallner stays healthy and begins to hit. Right now he is about the 20th best right fielder in baseball. 

Baldelli needs to play Wallner every day and find out what he can be as an every day player. Or is he strictly a platoon bat? One thing that may not change is his defense. His reads are worse than they were last year and he has also reverted to a slow exchange from glove to hand. Lately  fly balls have been tearing him up but the frequency of those consequential missed outs (due to talent not effort or errors) should diminish. Regular playing time and getting back into a groove should help Big Matt.

I like Wallner just fine but should admit that I wanted the Twins to tempt Pittsburgh with an offer of Matt for Bubba Chandler.

 

[tony&rodney]

BTW or FWIW, a thumb dow is pointless to a comment that has multiple facets. It makes sense to disagree to one or more points but a thumb down on a question doesn't make any sense. It is a real weakness with the site. So, is Skenes a good pitcher?

[Wedman13]

11 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You may want to check this year.  But feel free to use the stats that fit your position.

I absolutely hope Wallner can turn it around.  But his age and production don't equate to a starting player on an above average team.  We simply disagree he is integral to the twins future.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

You may want to check this year.  But feel free to use the stats that fit your position.

I absolutely hope Wallner can turn it around.  But his age and production don't equate to a starting player on an above average team.  We simply disagree he is integral to the twins future.

He's literally been in the top twenty iin all of baseball in on base and slugging percentage the last two years, and he's not a starter? 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

15 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

You may want to check this year.  But feel free to use the stats that fit your position.

I absolutely hope Wallner can turn it around.  But his age and production don't equate to a starting player on an above average team.  We simply disagree he is integral to the twins future.

I did check this year.  It's not great, but his track record is impossible to ignore.  And yet, we would base how much leeway to give Wallner on a season in which he has been injured (and probably is still a bit hobbled) approximately half the games and not on his track record?  By those standards, Buxton would be long gone and we would have DFA'd Joe Ryan two years ago when he was trying to pitch through injury (ill-advisedly as it was). 

You should check some rosters.  I'm certain that the Dodgers would love to have him in LF, the Guardians would take him in RF, the Royals would love to have him anywhere in the outfield, the Astros would love to have his bat somewhere, and the Phillies would gladly trade him even up for Max Kepler.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that at least three of those teams are playoff teams.  

 

[Wedman13]

51 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I did check this year.  It's not great, but his track record is impossible to ignore.  And yet, we would base how much leeway to give Wallner on a season in which he has been injured (and probably is still a bit hobbled) approximately half the games and not on his track record?  By those standards, Buxton would be long gone and we would have DFA'd Joe Ryan two years ago when he was trying to pitch through injury (ill-advisedly as it was). 

You should check some rosters.  I'm certain that the Dodgers would love to have him in LF, the Guardians would take him in RF, the Royals would love to have him anywhere in the outfield, the Astros would love to have his bat somewhere, and the Phillies would gladly trade him even up for Max Kepler.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that at least three of those teams are playoff teams.  

 

Agree to disagree on his impact for the timing of our current roster.  Fan apathy is enormous, (the worst I've seen in 10-15 years).  If he brings the value you believe these teams would give, I simple say 'take it'.  Roll with Larnach, E-Rob and Jenkins for 2-3 years.  If Wallner puts more buts in seats than Larch's trade trevor.  If there  is a return to get, take it.  In fairness, trading Wallner would admittedly be trading at an extremely low point.  Appreciate the conversation 

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's literally been in the top twenty iin all of baseball in on base and slugging percentage the last two years, and he's not a starter? 

correct.  No.  He has not had enough AB's to qualify as a starter so not sure where this top 20 stat comes from.  Is it anyone with at least 1 plate appearance?  
 

nothing better than watching his bombs, much like Sano, Gallo, Arcia and yes I do tune in when he's up vs France, Bader, Clemons, etc.  But he needs to turn it up, in a hurry.  Hoping he does.  

 

[KirbyDome89]

On 6/25/2025 at 1:23 PM, Road trip said:

If struggling is his current OPS+ of 102, that's a pretty nice floor.  We know the ceiling potential is significantly higher.  His career OPS+ remains 131.  I believe in Twins history that only Killebrew exceeds that mark.  Carew and Oliva each hit an OPS+ of exactly 131 for their career.

Wallner probably won't maintain a 131 for his career... almost nobody does.  Bet he finishes his career a lot higher than this year's 102 though...

Eh, that's not really a floor you want to tolerate. If he was bringing something else to the table maybe, but he's not a threat on the bases, he doesn't play particularly good defense, and he needs to be platooned. That's a guy you're looking to upgrade/move on from.