Falvey's Drafting & Development Results

[bean5302]

Now over 8 years into his time with the Twins, Falvey's draft/development results seem to have stagnated. Dobnak gave Falvey an early return back in 2019 with a cup of coffee from Rooker and Jeffers added in 2020. After that, Larnach tacked on a little while Jeffers came into his own. Lewis, Wallner, Lee, etc joined the party, but of all the WAR generated by the Twins, the percentage coming from Falvey's drafted players hit a wall at about 25% as his position player results tanked. Compare the Twins to the Cardinals home grown drafted/developed players over the same time. I chose the Cardinals as they've got a comparable budget to the Twins as similar mid-market teams and they've had similar success. The Cardinals essentially went 20-40-60 over the past 3 years. Mabye the 65% this year is a bit high, but the trend is what I'd expect to see from a decent front office. For years I've taken flak for grading Falvey harshly on his draft success with various comments saying it takes more time to develop players. It doesn't take 9+ years...

I didn't dive into this any further as this kind of stuff takes a lot of time, but it added to my perception that Falvey has failed as a GM. The trend I'd expect to see is by now the Twins would be getting at least 50% of their value from home grown talent. If a team can't draft and develop players to provide value (no excuses allowed after 8 years, thanks), the team will not be successful. Even large market teams need their draft pipeline to work as the Yankees proved when they tried to go all Free Agent many years ago.

Twins

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2017				0	37	N/A
2018				0	27.9	N/A
2019		0.7	0.1	0.8	55.2	1%
2020	0.4	0.8		1.2	18.5	6%
2021	1.2	0.1	-0.3	1	28.8	3%
2022	2.3	1.8	-0.2	3.9	32.1	12%
2023	9.2	2.3	-0.1	11.4	44.6	26%
2024	6.2	3.4	0.1	9.7	41.6	23%
2025	0.5	1.2	0.3	2	8.6	23%
Cardinals
	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2017				0	40.7	N/A
2018				0	32.6	N/A
2019				0	36.1	N/A
2020				0	10.6	N/A
2021	0.6	0.1	-0.3	0.4	38	1%
2022	4.8	0.4	0.3	5.5	45.3	12%
2023	6.2	1.4	0	7.6	32.5	23%
2024	10.9	1.8	0.8	13.5	32.4	42%
2025	5.8	1.1	0.4	7.3	11.2	65%

[Linus]

Interesting info - thanks for compiling it. I think some people have positive impressions of the job he has done because he ushered in the analytics era for the Twins. To take a more global view, the job of a POBO involves lots of decisions. Who you hire or fire; who you draft, who you trade and on and on. When judged on that basis Falvey has a mediocre track record - not horrible but not strong enough. One of his downfalls is lack of flexibility in his decision making process. I get the impression that he is open to change but only after the sample size is large enough to make him feel comfortable. Unfortunately in some areas that means entire seasons must pass. IMO the best leaders base their structures around analytics but have enough baseball experience and acumen to adjust before the answer is plain to see for everyone. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 5/9/2025 at 7:58 PM, bean5302 said:

Now over 8 years into his time with the Twins, Falvey's draft/development results seem to have stagnated. Dobnak gave Falvey an early return back in 2019 with a cup of coffee from Rooker and Jeffers added in 2020. After that, Larnach tacked on a little while Jeffers came into his own. Lewis, Wallner, Lee, etc joined the party, but of all the WAR generated by the Twins, the percentage coming from Falvey's drafted players hit a wall at about 25% as his position player results tanked. Compare the Twins to the Cardinals home grown drafted/developed players over the same time. I chose the Cardinals as they've got a comparable budget to the Twins as similar mid-market teams and they've had similar success. The Cardinals essentially went 20-40-60 over the past 3 years. Mabye the 65% this year is a bit high, but the trend is what I'd expect to see from a decent front office. For years I've taken flak for grading Falvey harshly on his draft success with various comments saying it takes more time to develop players. It doesn't take 9+ years...

I didn't dive into this any further as this kind of stuff takes a lot of time, but it added to my perception that Falvey has failed as a GM. The trend I'd expect to see is by now the Twins would be getting at least 50% of their value from home grown talent. If a team can't draft and develop players to provide value (no excuses allowed after 8 years, thanks), the team will not be successful. Even large market teams need their draft pipeline to work as the Yankees proved when they tried to go all Free Agent many years ago.

Twins

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2017				0	37	N/A
2018				0	27.9	N/A
2019		0.7	0.1	0.8	55.2	1%
2020	0.4	0.8		1.2	18.5	6%
2021	1.2	0.1	-0.3	1	28.8	3%
2022	2.3	1.8	-0.2	3.9	32.1	12%
2023	9.2	2.3	-0.1	11.4	44.6	26%
2024	6.2	3.4	0.1	9.7	41.6	23%
2025	0.5	1.2	0.3	2	8.6	23%
Cardinals
	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2017				0	40.7	N/A
2018				0	32.6	N/A
2019				0	36.1	N/A
2020				0	10.6	N/A
2021	0.6	0.1	-0.3	0.4	38	1%
2022	4.8	0.4	0.3	5.5	45.3	12%
2023	6.2	1.4	0	7.6	32.5	23%
2024	10.9	1.8	0.8	13.5	32.4	42%
2025	5.8	1.1	0.4	7.3	11.2	65%

Good analysis and agreed that this team needs to get a lower percentage of WAR from free agents. What about Cleveland and Tampa who regularly trade major leaguers for prospects? 
 

The Twins didn’t do a ton of development with Ryan before calling him up, but his repertoire has continued to evolve.

Falvey has done a great job of modernizing the Twins front office, and took the player acquisition and development a significant step forward from TR, but has hit a wall on the continuous improvement timeline. This FO still has a journey to take 

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good analysis. What about Cleveland and Tampa who regularly trade major leaguers for prospects? 
 

The Twins didn’t do a ton of development with Ryan before calling him up, but his repertoire has continued to evolve.

Falvey has done a great job of modernizing the Twins front office, and took the player acquisition and development a significant step forward from TR, but has hit a wall on the continuous improvement timeline. This FO still has a journey to take 

Draft and development. No mulligans, no buts. Every team has their version of Joe Ryan they've watched grow. Either at the plate or on the mound.
 

Cleveland 2024
Pos	SP	RP	Draft	Tot	Percent
8.2	4.7	2.9	15.8	35.5	45%

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are a truly... "unique" franchise. Virtually nobody on their roster was drafted/developed by them. There were only 2 bit players on their roster they drafted and developed themselves last year. Taylor Walls (SS) -0.2 WAR, drafted 2017, and Mason Montgomery (RP) 0.3 WAR, drafted 2021. The strategy used by Tampa is to draft tons of pitchers, develop them, get them to the big show and trade them for tons of prospects. Then fill out the roster holes with cheap, short term veterans. From a market efficiency standpoint, it's worked pretty well for the team; however, this model sucks as it's not expandable to other teams due to there being a finite supply of each component used to build the Rays' roster.

I absolutely give credit to Falvey for implementing new technology and a greatly expanded analytics system. The actual results from his efforts, though are not as good as Bill Smith or Terry Ryan (development wise).

 

[Brandon]

There is more to it than what you have written.  The goal is team building and how it’s done with the resources available.  Like compare the records of similar payroll teams and compare total results from their allocation of resources over time.  1 year is not enough but 3 or 5 seasons and you can compare trends and successes.  I guarantee the Twins are one of the best teams at identifying and developing scrap heap relievers and getting the most out of them at minimal costs.  Also the Twins have done a good job of developing pitching.  We are 5th in MLB and 3rd best staff on AL right now.  Also we seem to have lots of injuries.  And with players like Rooker who improved after moving on but the Twins knew he could be successful…..

And I will add this.  While he is at 8 years, and we should have a nice pipeline of prospects coming up, Development was halted at his current midpoint for a full season for COVID.  COVID doesn’t buy him any forgiveness moving forward but we also had a nice crop of graduates to MLB too with some good ones on the way.  Wallner, Larnarch, Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Varland, Duran, Jax, Sands.  Some of these guys were traded for and developed on the farm.  But if you are not counting Rooker who we drafted then you can count the ones we traded for and developed.  
on the way is Keaschall, Jenkins and Rodriguez…… and so on and so on….

 

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

There is more to it than what you have written.  The goal is team building and how it’s done with the resources available.  Like compare the records of similar payroll teams and compare total results from their allocation of resources over time.  1 year is not enough but 3 or 5 seasons and you can compare trends and successes.  I guarantee the Twins are one of the best teams at identifying and developing scrap heap relievers and getting the most out of them at minimal costs.  Also the Twins have done a good job of developing pitching.  We are 5th in MLB and 3rd best staff on AL right now.  Also we seem to have lots of injuries.  And with players like Rooker who improved after moving on but the Twins knew he could be successful…..

And I will add this.  While he is at 8 years, and we should have a nice pipeline of prospects coming up, Development was halted at his current midpoint for a full season for COVID.  COVID doesn’t buy him any forgiveness moving forward but we also had a nice crop of graduates to MLB too with some good ones on the way.  Wallner, Larnarch, Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Varland, Duran, Jax, Sands.  Some of these guys were traded for and developed on the farm.  But if you are not counting Rooker who we drafted then you can count the ones we traded for and developed.  
on the way is Keaschall, Jenkins and Rodriguez…… and so on and so on….

 

Endless excuses and no data. Sounds about right. Resources? Try the very highest payroll in the AL Central over Falvey's time here.

[tony&rodney]

Hired in October, 2016 - DF is in year 9 of his Twins post. WS or bust for him this year.

[Riverbrian]

I will judge this front office on development and development alone.

We can't afford free agents developed by other teams. Let me rephrase that... we can't afford free agents developed by other teams that other teams also have interest in. 

Development is so important that the success or failure of a front office can be judged by development and development alone. 

Multiple teams have rebuilt their farm from producing very little to producing significantly more than we do during the time of Falvey's tenure. 

I am simply not impressed with their ability to MacGyver low price one year vets together.  

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I will judge this front office on development and development alone.

We can't afford free agents developed by other teams. Let me rephrase that... we can't afford free agents developed by other teams that other teams also have interest in. 

Development is so important that the success or failure of a front office can be judged by development and development alone. 

Multiple teams have rebuilt their farm from producing very little to producing significantly more than we do during the time of Falvey's tenure. 

I am simply not impressed with their ability to MacGyver low price one year vets together.  

 

I don't think it's fair to look only at drafting/int'l signings and development. I seem to recall 50% of a team's WAR should come from drafted/developed players under team control for sustainability. Of course, that means a guy like Buxton doesn't count even though he was home grown since he long passed the initial team control period.

That said, trades and free agent signings are usually a big portion of mid-market team successes and the Twins have landed some significant contracts in that realm under Falvey. 

I do think it's fair to look at Falvey's front office and evaluate them based on facts and actual production rather than hopes and dreams. In this case, I'm just touching on the draft/development (probably most important IMHO) piece of a front office's job. Hopes and dreams and projections don't count. Royce Lewis absolutely has the talent to win an MVP and put up an 8 WAR season at shortstop; however, his unending injury history along with poor coaching and management have certainly damaged his production. Ceilings don't matter to me because, in professional sports you either win or lose.
 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This is something me and you have not seen eye to eye on.   Lets split the drafts pre-covid 17-19,  Covid Year,   Post Covid.  

17 - Lewis and Ober.  We are still waiting for Lewis to remain healthy and steady production,  but he still has the potential at being an all star.  Ober has been a great find.  

For 18 you have Larnach, Jeffers, Keirsey and Sands -  That is a very solid draft.  Jeffers has been the best so far, Larnach seems to be turning a corner and Sands is solidifying in the bullpen. 

19 - Wallner, Julien, Varland  (traded away Steer) - 2 very solid pieces it appears right now in Wallner and Varland.  I hoped for more out of Julien but alas I don't think his defense will be able to hold up at the mlb level. 

I ignore the 2020 draft even though it has netted us Raya

2021 draft -  We traded away our first 5 draft picks to supplement the big league team.  The petty Trade appears to be a massive win.  The rest were meh.  We will still have Festa and Ohl  who both look like solid pitchers.  

22-24 Our best drafts by far.  Lee,  Matthews,  both look like major league pieces.  Morris, Lewis, Culpepper are all wait and see.  In 23 its absolutely loaded - Jenkins, Soto, Keaschall, Winokur, Questad  24 - Culpepper, Debarge, Amick, Hill.  

Overall the 17 through 19 drafts should be the core of our lineup now,  they have been solid and we got some pieces but I will agree with you that up to this point we haven't had a star that has netted a ton of WAR, although Lewis still flashes that ability to fill that roll.  The 21 draft was absolutely a great draft class,  we just used it to supplement the big league team.  That happens.  

 

The 22-24 drafts classes should all be in the minor leagues.  We have had Lee Matthews and Keaschall all flash and have the potential to be key cogs (even though Lee and Keaschall might be slightly redundant and blocking each other.  All in all these last 4 drafts have been exceptional.  We only have the last 3 to really work with,  but they have added a ton of depth to the minor leagues.  I fully expect the WAR from the drafts to start piling up as early as this year.   I think the Twins have been a top 5 draft team as of late,  top 10 at worst.   This is not an area that I would be harping on much.  Overall the drafts were ok not great early,  and they really have hit their stride the last couple of years with 3 high school arms and another high end college pitcher really increasing the quality pitching depth in the minor leagues.  

Just like I told you about this season,  you need to have the patience to let the team and the draft picks to shine.  If you look at a singular moment in time,  yes it might not look great but it might not be the full picture of the what the team or draft picks are capable of.  If you want to have a negative view be my guest.  Overall, I still really think this organization has a great future,  based on their drafting.  

[4twinsJA]

It seems best to separate pitching from  position players. Twins FO has undeniably had success drafting, acquiring, and developing pitchers. Twins are arguably the deepest in pitching as they have been for a long time.

Position players are a different story. It seems after the first couple of rounds of the draft, Twins have had very little success and poor results on the international side both pitching and hitting.

What traits for hitting are the best predictor of future success at the MLB level?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, 4twinsJA said:

It seems best to separate pitching from  position players. Twins FO has undeniably had success drafting, acquiring, and developing pitchers. Twins are arguably the deepest in pitching as they have been for a long time.

Position players are a different story. It seems after the first couple of rounds of the draft, Twins have had very little success and poor results on the international side both pitching and hitting.

What traits for hitting are the best predictor of future success at the MLB level?

Position is the weakest really?  How do you figure?  

Infielders:  Keashall, Lee, Culpepper, Debarge  Amick,  Doncon (flip for Miller)

Outfielders: Jenkins Rodriguez Winokur   

Those are just the high end players,  and thats a lot.  

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it's fair to look only at drafting/int'l signings and development. I seem to recall 50% of a team's WAR should come from drafted/developed players under team control for sustainability. Of course, that means a guy like Buxton doesn't count even though he was home grown since he long passed the initial team control period.

That said, trades and free agent signings are usually a big portion of mid-market team successes and the Twins have landed some significant contracts in that realm under Falvey. 

I do think it's fair to look at Falvey's front office and evaluate them based on facts and actual production rather than hopes and dreams. In this case, I'm just touching on the draft/development (probably most important IMHO) piece of a front office's job. Hopes and dreams and projections don't count. Royce Lewis absolutely has the talent to win an MVP and put up an 8 WAR season at shortstop; however, his unending injury history along with poor coaching and management have certainly damaged his production. Ceilings don't matter to me because, in professional sports you either win or lose.
 

The % of WAR by acquisition method is charted below.  I have only summarized the most productive teams so only have charts for Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, and Milwaukee's highest win teams and I threw the Twins in for comparison.  As you can see, none of them have come close to averaging 50% of WAR via drafting.  Tampa and Cleveland have actually produced the highest percentage of their WAR by acquiring prospects.  (TaP below).  These teams have averaged close to 70% between drafting and trading for prospects.  Tampa is 77%.  Cleveland has only produced around 10% between free agents and trading for established players.

8	Oakland Athletics	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Oakland 2002	103	46.0%	19.1%	25.1%	9.7%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2001	102	57.1%	11.0%	17.6%	14.3%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2019	97	24.6%	0.0%	48.6%	14.0%	12.8%
100%	Oakland 2018	97	51.8%	0.0%	29.1%	19.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2013	96	23.5%	5.1%	41.7%	9.1%	20.6%
100%	Oakland 2003	96	46.2%	21.1%	27.7%	5.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2012	94	8.5%	0.0%	40.1%	14.4%	37.0%
100%	Oakland 2006	93	22.6%	0.0%	47.2%	8.5%	21.7%
	Oakland Total	97.25	35.0%	7.0%	34.6%	11.8%	11.5%
7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Cleveland 2017	102	24.3%	19.3%	44.3%	4.3%	7.8%
100%	Cleveland 2007	96	30.5%	38.2%	31.3%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2016	94	33.1%	22.7%	44.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2019	93	34.0%	17.8%	44.1%	4.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
100%	Cleveland 2022	92	34.2%	19.7%	46.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	25.5%	19.9%	44.5%	3.0%	7.1%
6	Tampa Bay Rays	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Tampa Bay 2021	100	24.5%	5.9%	54.0%	0.0%	15.6%
100%	Tampa Bay 2023	99	13.8%	9.8%	66.2%	0.0%	10.2%
100%	Tampa Bay 2008	97	45.7%	0.0%	33.2%	4.5%	16.6%
99%	Tampa Bay 2019	96	18.6%	0.0%	45.8%	9.0%	26.0%
100%	Tampa Bay 2010	96	64.7%	0.0%	22.1%	9.1%	4.1%
100%	Tampa Bay 2013	92	50.7%	0	28.6%	8.5%	12.2%
	Tampa Bay Total	96.67	36.3%	2.6%	41.6%	5.2%	14.1%
	Average All	96.16	32%	10%	40%	7%	11%
5	Minnesota Twins	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	MN Twins 2019	101	36.3%	24.7%	0.0%	9.1%	30.0%
100%	MN Twins 2006	96	39.7%	3.3%	44.3%	12.7%	0.0%
100%	MN Twins 2010	94	50%	0%	21%	8%	21%
100%	MN Twins 2002	94	59.8%	0.0%	35.0%	5.2%	0.0%
100%	MN Twins 2004	92	31.9%	7.6%	55.5%	5.0%	0.0%
	Twins Total	95.40	43.6%	7.1%	31.1%	8.0%	10.2%
	Average All	95.85	34%	11%	38%	7%	10%
4	Milwaukee Brewers	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Mil Brewers 2023	92	27.3%	0.0%	19.8%	52.9%	0.0%
100%	Mil Brewers 2021	95	58.1%	0.0%	34.6%	7.3%	0.0%
100%	Mil Brewers 2018	96	4.9%	0.0%	29.4%	37.8%	27.9%
100%	Mil Brewers 2011	96	31.0%	4.1%	30.0%	12.8%	22.1%
	Brewers Total	94.75	30.3%	1.0%	28.5%	27.7%	12.5%
	Average All	95.30	32.3%	4.3%	38.5%	12.4%	14.6%

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Position is the weakest really?  How do you figure?  

Infielders:  Keashall, Lee, Culpepper, Debarge  Amick,  Doncon (flip for Miller)

Outfielders: Jenkins Rodriguez Winokur   

Those are just the high end players,  and thats a lot.  

Which of those is in AA or AAA right now? Because if they aren't in AA by the middle of this year, they likely aren't on the Twins this year or next.....so, yay, more 1 year deals for mediocre veterans!

[4twinsJA]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Position is the weakest really?  How do you figure?  

Infielders:  Keashall, Lee, Culpepper, Debarge  Amick,  Doncon (flip for Miller)

Outfielders: Jenkins Rodriguez Winokur   

Those are just the high end players,  and thats a lot.  

My point was after first couple rounds of draft, Twins have little to show for their draft picks of position players. Most of your listed players are early round picks in draft.

Rodriguez is only one of 2 international draft players at AAA, none at MLB level, and only 2 at AA. There has been poor results from international draft also.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which of those is in AA or AAA right now? Because if they aren't in AA by the middle of this year, they likely aren't on the Twins this year or next.....so, yay, more 1 year deals for mediocre veterans!

Seriously what is wrong with this board.  Are we all just negative nellies?   

By then July you could have the following roster -  

Infield - Lewis, Correa, Keaschall, France      - Lee as super utility   

Outfield - Bader, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach - 

McCusker and Castro as bench players or keep Kiersey up if you want more speed.  

Catcher - Jeffers Vasquez

 

Or keep Lee at second and Keaschall remains in AAA.   Other than outfield,  I feel pretty good about next years roster.  Every year we will have some 1 year deals, I don't understand the consternation.  We are loaded on infield prospects.  Its the outfield that is questionable.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Seriously what is wrong with this board.  Are we all just negative nellies?   

By then July you could have the following roster -  

Infield - Lewis, Correa, Keaschall, France      - Lee as super utility   

Outfield - Bader, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach - 

McCusker and Castro as bench players or keep Kiersey up if you want more speed.  

Catcher - Jeffers Vasquez

 

Or keep Lee at second and Keaschall remains in AAA.   Other than outfield,  I feel pretty good about next years roster.  Every year we will have some 1 year deals, I don't understand the consternation.  We are loaded on infield prospects.  Its the outfield that is questionable.  

I'm negative? I asked who was in AA/AAA this year, because we are talking about the minor leagues (drafting and developing). That's the topic. 

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The % of WAR by acquisition method is charted below.  I have only summarized the most productive teams so only have charts for Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, and Milwaukee's highest win teams and I threw the Twins in for comparison.  As you can see, none of them have come close to averaging 50% of WAR via drafting.  Tampa and Cleveland have actually produced the highest percentage of their WAR by acquiring prospects.  (TaP below).  These teams have averaged close to 70% between drafting and trading for prospects.  Tampa is 77%.  Cleveland has only produced around 10% between free agents and trading for established players.

8	Oakland Athletics	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Oakland 2002	103	46.0%	19.1%	25.1%	9.7%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2001	102	57.1%	11.0%	17.6%	14.3%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2019	97	24.6%	0.0%	48.6%	14.0%	12.8%
100%	Oakland 2018	97	51.8%	0.0%	29.1%	19.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2013	96	23.5%	5.1%	41.7%	9.1%	20.6%
100%	Oakland 2003	96	46.2%	21.1%	27.7%	5.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2012	94	8.5%	0.0%	40.1%	14.4%	37.0%
100%	Oakland 2006	93	22.6%	0.0%	47.2%	8.5%	21.7%
	Oakland Total	97.25	35.0%	7.0%	34.6%	11.8%	11.5%
7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Cleveland 2017	102	24.3%	19.3%	44.3%	4.3%	7.8%
100%	Cleveland 2007	96	30.5%	38.2%	31.3%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2016	94	33.1%	22.7%	44.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2019	93	34.0%	17.8%	44.1%	4.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
100%	Cleveland 2022	92	34.2%	19.7%	46.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	25.5%	19.9%	44.5%	3.0%	7.1%
6	Tampa Bay Rays	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Tampa Bay 2021	100	24.5%	5.9%	54.0%	0.0%	15.6%
100%	Tampa Bay 2023	99	13.8%	9.8%	66.2%	0.0%	10.2%
100%	Tampa Bay 2008	97	45.7%	0.0%	33.2%	4.5%	16.6%
99%	Tampa Bay 2019	96	18.6%	0.0%	45.8%	9.0%	26.0%
100%	Tampa Bay 2010	96	64.7%	0.0%	22.1%	9.1%	4.1%
100%	Tampa Bay 2013	92	50.7%	0	28.6%	8.5%	12.2%
	Tampa Bay Total	96.67	36.3%	2.6%	41.6%	5.2%	14.1%
	Average All	96.16	32%	10%	40%	7%	11%
5	Minnesota Twins	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	MN Twins 2019	101	36.3%	24.7%	0.0%	9.1%	30.0%
100%	MN Twins 2006	96	39.7%	3.3%	44.3%	12.7%	0.0%
100%	MN Twins 2010	94	50%	0%	21%	8%	21%
100%	MN Twins 2002	94	59.8%	0.0%	35.0%	5.2%	0.0%
100%	MN Twins 2004	92	31.9%	7.6%	55.5%	5.0%	0.0%
	Twins Total	95.40	43.6%	7.1%	31.1%	8.0%	10.2%
	Average All	95.85	34%	11%	38%	7%	10%
4	Milwaukee Brewers	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Mil Brewers 2023	92	27.3%	0.0%	19.8%	52.9%	0.0%
100%	Mil Brewers 2021	95	58.1%	0.0%	34.6%	7.3%	0.0%
100%	Mil Brewers 2018	96	4.9%	0.0%	29.4%	37.8%	27.9%
100%	Mil Brewers 2011	96	31.0%	4.1%	30.0%	12.8%	22.1%
	Brewers Total	94.75	30.3%	1.0%	28.5%	27.7%	12.5%
	Average All	95.30	32.3%	4.3%	38.5%	12.4%	14.6%

Where's the WAR listed here? I see "WINS" which is the team's record.
The TaP = Traded for player before the player made it to MLB? 2019 shows 0.0% for the Twins on TaP, but what about Trevor May?

I'm just looking things over to better understand the data set.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm negative? I asked who was in AA/AAA this year, because we are talking about the minor leagues (drafting and developing). That's the topic. 

For Outfield

So Jenkins is supposed to be at AA,  Rosario has been decent.   

AAA - you have Mccusker who is absolutely mashing and a top 20 prospect now.   Martin likely won't have the bat or defense to make it.  Erod has the pedigree who could turn a corner.   Then the player who I think really turned a corner before his injury last year was Holland.  Yes there is some question marks,  but there is over 2/3rds of the minor league year yet for things to become clearer on organizational strengths and weaknesses.    

This is with Larnach, Wallner and Buxton who should be are 3 outfielders next year.  What more do we really need.  Its not as if most organizations can supplement their entire team from AAA or AA.    

Its not as if there are many holes in the infield other.  France could possibly sign another short term deal if we are interested.   There are potential trades, injuries or prospects outperforming or underperforming that can change our opinion of what is a need or not.  As I posted the upper levels are not as strong because we traded a majority of our prospects from the 2021 draft.  

 

As to negative:  I have received downvotes because I think Amick is a solid prospect.  Because I think the minors have a decent amount of hitting prospects even though a lot of the higher end prospects are in A ball and high A ball you want to think there aren't any decent prospects in AAA.  Even though you admit, we won't move up McCusker because we really don't have an opening.  Then you have others who want to question the Twins on this winning streak because it seems like they either want this organization to lose because they don't like the ownership,  or lose so we can fire Falvey and or Baldelli.  Just look at this article,  Bean wants to fire Falvey because he wants to state he hasn't drafted well enough, while ignoring the rest of the picture on developing the team. I just don't get the negativity.  Yes we can be objective,  but it seems like we are rooting for failure.  Yes you got a bit of pushback because of previous interactions.  I just think as fans we should be rooting when we are doing well,  and the prospects and pipeline we do have.  Worst case we have enough prospects capital to trade for any hole we may have and pretty deep pitching pipeline.  

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Where's the WAR listed here? I see "WINS" which is the team's record.
The TaP = Traded for player before the player made it to MLB? 2019 shows 0.0% for the Twins on TaP, but what about Trevor May?

I'm just looking things over to better understand the data set.

The chart shows percentage of WAR by category.  This spreadsheet is huge and includes the WAR for every player that produced 1.5 WAR (1.2 for RPs) for every 90 win team since the turn of the century.   From that data, I built a number of charts in tabs.  In this case, I inserted summaries from the individual spreadsheets for each team.  Then, calculated the aggregate percentages which is why you don't see the WAR itemized in this chart.  In other words, this chart was constructed to help me understand the impact of acquisition methods.  It was not constructed to respond here.

Also, I was looking for impact players.  Therefore, I only identified players that produced 1.5 WAR (1.2 for RPS).  Trevor may only produced .9 WAR in 2019 which is why he is not captured in the data.  Obviously, what defines impact is debatable but I did this from the point of view that players producing less than 1 WAR are not essential to building a winning team.  I was trying to find objective measures to identify how winning teams were built by teams with less than average revenue.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm negative? I asked who was in AA/AAA this year, because we are talking about the minor leagues (drafting and developing). That's the topic. 

Lee and Keaschall are on the big league team. Does that count?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Lee and Keaschall are on the big league team. Does that count?

Those two look like legit players. I'm the high guy in Lee on this site. I even created a thread about how good he is.  I'm not excited about the help they will need later this year and next. Hopefully ERod hits and Jenkins gets healthy. Hopefully others step up. 

[bean5302]

It's hard to quantify how good players will be in the future. What we do have is 8 years of what has actually happened. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to try and predict the future at this point. If people are supporting Falvey, it really should be about installing the system and analytics. He also had a couple great trades that landed us Joe Ryan and Jake Odorizzi or getting out from under the Josh Donaldson deal while getting Urshela and Sanchez in return.

Lets take a look at Bill Smith and Terry Ryan 8 years after their first season as GM (and first season back for T.R.).

Bill Smith 2008-2011 drafts/signings

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2015	6.7	2.8	0	9.5	28.1	34%

Crippled with just 4 drafts, Smith is responsible for a huge part of the core of the team into the 2020s. Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson contributed here with negative 2.5 WAR in contributions by Max Kepler, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana with Jorge Polanco being neutral.

Terry Ryan 2012-2016 drafts/signings

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2021	8.6	2.3	3.2	14.1	28.8	49%

Like Bill Smith, Terry Ryan gets a bit hamstrung by the fact he only had 5 years of drafting/signing to get his results. I used 2021 because the SSSS of 2020 is totally unfair to project to a full season. Terry Ryan's guys were Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, Ben Rortvedt, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Duffey, and Cody Stashak. Only Travis Blankenhorn created a tiny drag on results with -0.1 WAR. 

Should have been 2019 for Ryan? Whatever. I worked enough on this, LOL.

[Parfigliano]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hired in October, 2016 - DF is in year 9 of his Twins post. WS or bust for him this year.

Then I think he's in trouble.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Then the player who I think really turned a corner before his injury last year was Holland. 

Love your enthusiasm and positivity. I agree with you on Jenkins and Rodriguez. We already have Lee and Keaschall. I love to see how McCusker is hitting but I don't bring him up to give him a try. I only bring him up if we think he can be a good player. Holland - I totally disagree. When he was healthy, he spent numerous games on the bench and batted near the bottom of the lineup last year (while batting Helman near the top of the order and then trading him). Those are two telling signs of what the Twins think of him as those players usually don't get a chance in the majors.

Pitching prospects are great. Position players we are good other than these weaknesses - 1B, catcher and SS. I used to get excited about guys like Noah Miller but now wait until they show something at AA. Therefore, I'm not counting on Culpepper or Debarge just yet, and Amick (the no homers is a bad sign even though he has a great batting average). 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's hard to quantify how good players will be in the future. What we do have is 8 years of what has actually happened. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to try and predict the future at this point. If people are supporting Falvey, it really should be about installing the system and analytics. He also had a couple great trades that landed us Joe Ryan and Jake Odorizzi or getting out from under the Josh Donaldson deal while getting Urshela and Sanchez in return.

Lets take a look at Bill Smith and Terry Ryan 8 years after their first season as GM (and first season back for T.R.).

Bill Smith 2008-2011 drafts/signings

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2015	6.7	2.8	0	9.5	28.1	34%

Crippled with just 4 drafts, Smith is responsible for a huge part of the core of the team into the 2020s. Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson contributed here with negative 2.5 WAR in contributions by Max Kepler, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana with Jorge Polanco being neutral.

Terry Ryan 2012-2016 drafts/signings

	Pos	SP	RP	Draft Value	Total	Percent
2021	8.6	2.3	3.2	14.1	28.8	49%

Like Bill Smith, Terry Ryan gets a bit hamstrung by the fact he only had 5 years of drafting/signing to get his results. I used 2021 because the SSSS of 2020 is totally unfair to project to a full season. Terry Ryan's guys were Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, Ben Rortvedt, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Duffey, and Cody Stashak. Only Travis Blankenhorn created a tiny drag on results with -0.1 WAR. 

Should have been 2019 for Ryan? Whatever. I worked enough on this, LOL.

How do you decide who gets credit for guys like Arraez, Rortvedt, and AK who were brought in by TR but did their developing under Falvey?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How do you decide who gets credit for guys like Arraez, Rortvedt, and AK who were brought in by TR but did their developing under Falvey?

Whomever drafted them/signed them gets the credit. Falvey didn't exactly fare well when it came to developing the previous regime's prospects. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Whomever drafted them/signed them gets the credit. Falvey didn't exactly fare well when it came to developing the previous regime's prospects. 

The previous regime didn't exactly fare well at developing their prospects. It's why they're the previous regime. I'm not here to defend Falvey's track record developing prospects, but I don't understand not giving him some credit for Arraez or AK. Arraez was an A ball player when Falvey took over and AK had just been drafted. Hard to argue Arraez didn't turn out alright under Falvey.

Jose Miranda and Rortvedt both made it to the bigs under Falvey. Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells were developed enough to become Rule 5 picks that were kept. And some guy named Jax seems to have been developed alright out of that 2016 draft. Obviously TR and company deserve credit for the scouting, but feels pretty insincere to ignore that they were developed under Falvey. None of that is even counting Moran, Wade, or Stashak from 2015 that were developed in part under Falvey. Giving all the credit to a guy who wasn't around for most of their development seems awfully arbitrary and like it's ignoring a whole lot of the development part of the "draft and develop" idea.

And, FYI, Caleb Thielbar wasn't a Terry Ryan signing, he was a Bill Smith signing at the end of the 2011 season. 

[jorgenswest]

@bean5302As always really good work on the analysis. 

Teams need a solid foundation of players that have contracts prior to becoming free agents. Identifying, acquiring and developing that foundation is critical. It doesn’t matter how they were acquired whether it be the draft, international signing, waiver claim, trade, independent leagues, Japan, Korea or any other avenue. Three fifth of the rotation is pitchers they acquired while still under team control. Two they will have the entirety of team control. They will have one of the league’s best closers for all of his team control. 

I would think that identifying inexpensive free agents is also critical. This year the Twins added Bader, France and Coulombe for 8.75 million dollars. They have contributed. They have contributed 2.3 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) at the quarter pole. Identifying those inexpensive pieces was critical. The Orioles appear to have failed in identifying those pieces and it is significantly impacted their record thus far.

I don’t know how this compares to other teams but I would think that Falvey has been at least above the median in identifying, acquiring and developing a foundation of players. 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think it's fair to look only at drafting/int'l signings and development. I seem to recall 50% of a team's WAR should come from drafted/developed players under team control for sustainability. Of course, that means a guy like Buxton doesn't count even though he was home grown since he long passed the initial team control period.

That said, trades and free agent signings are usually a big portion of mid-market team successes and the Twins have landed some significant contracts in that realm under Falvey. 

I do think it's fair to look at Falvey's front office and evaluate them based on facts and actual production rather than hopes and dreams. In this case, I'm just touching on the draft/development (probably most important IMHO) piece of a front office's job. Hopes and dreams and projections don't count. Royce Lewis absolutely has the talent to win an MVP and put up an 8 WAR season at shortstop; however, his unending injury history along with poor coaching and management have certainly damaged his production. Ceilings don't matter to me because, in professional sports you either win or lose.
 

You are correct. It isn't fair because there is a ton of nuance. 

It's also kinda fair because I'm not calling for anyone's head. Because... I recognize that there is a ton of nuance.  

However... let me be clear. I watch as much as I can. I'm aware how players arrive on all 30 teams. 

There are three primary avenues to staffing your rosters. Trades, Free Agency and Farm Raised. 

I've just decided that development (increasing player value) is important after trades are made. And I've decided that development will make you less reliant on the low dollar free agent and it can also provide additional budget space to sign a bigger free agent if they choose to go that route.

So... forgive me for nut shelling. I will judge this front office on development. 

Hopes, Dreams and Projections? I'm not sure what you mean by that but I have a feeling that I won't like it. 

Facts? I got facts and I can provide them. This front office has a winning record. 10th best record in baseball since 2017? Are your facts bigger than that fact? Are mine? Do you have Fairness under that nuance?