The Twins Have Long-Term Uncertainty at Catcher, but an Extension Could Solve It

[Greggory Masterson]

Ryan Jeffers only has two years of team control left with the Twins, and there's no clear replacement. Would it be possible to extend the soon-to-be 28-year-old, following the Mariners’ lead?

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

In your head, Ryan Jeffers might be a young building block for the Minnesota Twins, but time is running low on his tenure. Since his debut in 2020, he’s more or less been the Twins' starting catcher. At minimum, he's held a substantial portion of a timeshare behind the plate—whether that be alongside Mitch Garver (2020-2021), Gary Sánchez (2022), or Christian Vázquez (2023-2025).

He’s hit fairly well, sporting a career 104 OPS+, which is about average for the league overall but much better than the average catcher. The offensive standard for backstops hovers around 90, or 10% below league average. In that context, a 104 OPS+ is substantial. In 2024, Jeffers came in at 103. In 2023, that figure was 133, nearly 50% better than the average catcher that year.

His defense has graded out inconsistently. Early in his career, his receiving was his strong suit, and the major questions were about his arm. Over time, his reputation for framing diminished, but he improved in controlling the running game. He seems to be reliable in challenging pitches in the automated ball-strike system, as he was fairly successful during spring training. In all likelihood, starting next year, that will become an actual (and fairly valuable) skill.

I have laid out this information to set up a comparison to the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh, the latest of a few catchers to be extended recently. Raleigh signed a six-year, $105-million extension, with a vesting option for a seventh year.

Raleigh shares some similarities with Jeffers. They’re around the same age—Raleigh is about half a year older. Raleigh had two years of team control after 2025 before his extension—one more than Jeffers. They both hit well for catchers. Raleigh has the better career mark, with a 112 OPS+, though Jeffers has been almost exactly as good if we only consider the last two seasons: 117 for Raleigh and 116 for Jeffers (which admittedly may be buoyed by the latter's outstanding 2023).

Ryan Jeffers v. Cal Raleigh, 2023-24

In addition to being the better hitter for his career, Raleigh controls the running game and receives substantially better than Jeffers. Raleigh won the Gold Glove for American League catchers last season and the Rawlings Platinum Glove, given to the best fielder in the league across all positions. He’s very good.

Jeffers isn’t Raleigh, so his figure probably wouldn’t come in so high. For reference, Raleigh’s $105 million is divided up like so:

• 2025: $11 million
• 2026: $11 million
• 2027: $12 million
• 2028: $23 million 
• 2029: $23 million 
• 2030: $23 million 
• 2031: $20 million (vesting option, $2 million buyout) 

Other relevant recent extensions include the Dodgers buying out Will Smith’s last two years of team control and eight additional years (until his age-38 season) at $14 million per year in 2024 and Atlanta buying out all three years of Sean Murphy’s arbitration, plus three more years and a team option ($15 million for his age-34 season) for $12.2 million per year, on average.

Smith and Murphy are also viewed as better hitters and defenders (though that’s debatable, with Smith) than Jeffers. All three of these comparable cases were extended earlier in their arbitration processes than Jeffers, which does diminish their average annual value, given that they have less leverage for those years, and Smith’s long contract is structured to spread money out and manipulate the luxury tax system for the Dodgers. (I’d be surprised if he finished the contract.) However, each was extended ahead of his age-28 or 29 season, right in line with Jeffers.

So, what might an extension for Jeffers look like? Perhaps it would be five years, with an average annual value around $12-15 million. He only has one arbitration year remaining, which removes some of the artificial suppression on the yearly value. A five-year, $70-million contract would align him with Murphy’s (arbitration-deflated) deal and retain Jeffers through his age-33 season. I’m sure I could be talked into something longer or shorter, more expensive or less expensive, maybe with a vesting option for his age-34 season, but $70 million over five seasons is a decent spot to start thinking through this.

Is this something that the Twins would want to do? There are a few factors at play. Right now, $14 million (the average annual value for this hypothetical deal) would represent about 10% of the Twins’ total payroll, just a hair less than the money Byron Buxton is getting—though also less than Jeffers and Vázquez are making combined this year as the catching tandem. That’s not an insignificant amount, and we’ve already seen the repercussions of an aging catcher getting an eight-figure salary with Vázquez’s performance over the last three years (which, by the way, does still indicate that the team is open to multi-year, eight-digit AAV contracts for starting catchers).

Given this concern in particular, it’s worth speculating on how Jeffers will hold up as he ages. Catchers do not age gracefully. It’s a demanding position that ages a young man quickly. Jeffers is a big guy, at 6-foot-3. However, he’s been lightly ridden over his career. He’s never caught in more than 86 games in a season, and he’s stayed relatively healthy, only missing significant time in 2022 (presumably due, in part, to the Twins’ commitment to splitting time to keep both primary catchers fresh). The lack of miles on his tires may protect him a bit from a catcher’s typical aging curve (or cliff).

However, that brings up another point: Jeffers has never been a full-time catcher. The last three catchers to get multi-year extensions consistently caught at least 100 games per year. If the Twins are committing that money to Jeffers, would they need him to catch more often than not, and would his body hold up to that workload? We’ve never seen it before for him, so that’s a question.

Finally, the last factor that needs to be considered here is the alternative options. The Twins do not have a clear replacement for Jeffers come 2027. Right now, they have two minor-league catchers on the 40-man roster, in Jair Camargo and Diego Cartaya. Camargo seems destined for a career as a backup catcher, and assuming he plays his way into that role, he could be an inexpensive catching partner with Jeffers for the life of his extension. However, that plan would likely require Jeffers to get above the 100 games caught threshold.

Cartaya, once a top prospect, still has a ceiling where he could feasibly become a starting-caliber catcher, but that’s assuming a lot for a kid who’s struggled over the last couple of years. However, he is still young, and he could get to a level where the Twins feel comfortable splitting time between him and Jeffers more evenly. He could also top out as a more traditional backup, and fill a similar role to the one we discussed with Camargo. Then again, perhaps neither of them could ever be viable options. Who knows?

Outside of those two, the Twins don’t have a name that jumps off the page. Ricardo Olivar, Khadim Diaw, or Ricardo Pena could be options, but there are huge questions for those names (and any others in the system). If the Twins don’t extend Jeffers, they could still need to invest salary or prospect trade capital in covering the positions in the years after Jeffers exits. It may just be a question of whether they want to pay Jeffers a good chunk of change, or someone else (probably worse) a bit less.

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[Karbo]

I think it all comes down to who's signing the checks. 5 years seems reasonable enough, though I don't think he compares that well to the others in the article. Maybe more like 5 years @60 mil?

[Doctor Wu]

I'm always wary of signing catchers to long-term contracts. Jeffers is already 28, so how many more years can we expect him to be behind the plate? Most likely he will end up being one of those veteran catchers that transitions to first baseman or DH. I'm quite satisfied with how he has performed in recent years, but I would not be too eager to give him a contract much longer than 2-3 years, if even that much. Then again, it's not like we have a bunch of stellar catching prospects waiting to be called up. 

[TwinsDr2021]

How can you compare these guys without including the amount of games played/started?

Last two years Raleigh has started 239 games and played in the 128 and 135 (Both league highs) at catcher, Jeffers has started 152 and played in 168 games, Smith has started 223, Murphy has had some injuries but also has started more games at catcher (165)

Like just about everybody else the Twins have brought up from the minors it takes two guys to fill a position so extending a non-full time player seems kind of strange, same with Wallner if he isn't going to play 140-150 games a year you don't extended him because it takes two roster spots to fill the position. (And Jeffers bat isn't good enough to start 25 or more games at DH, unless he gets hot then start him any where until he cools off.

With all this said I like Jeffers, just not enough to play him a salary of a full time player that isn't a full time player.

 

[Blyleven2011]

I just read the title and that was enough for me , yes we don't have a surplus of catching but jeffers is not worthy of an extension  ...

Why wasn't Vazquez catching Lopez yesterday on opening day , we might have had a better outcome,  Vazquez has smarts and defense is better  ...

Goes to show , Rocco never puts the best players on the field ...

Everyone likes jeffers because he hits alittle better , but it's inconsistent streaky  ...

[Blyleven2011]

I just read the title and that was enough for me , yes we don't have a surplus of catching but jeffers is not worthy of an extension  ...

Why wasn't Vazquez catching Lopez yesterday on opening day , we might have had a better outcome,  Vazquez has smarts and defense is better  ...

Goes to show , Rocco never puts the best players on the field ...

Everyone likes jeffers because he hits alittle better , but it's inconsistent streaky  ...

[umterp23]

20 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I just read the title and that was enough for me , yes we don't have a surplus of catching but jeffers is not worthy of an extension  ...

Why wasn't Vazquez catching Lopez yesterday on opening day , we might have had a better outcome,  Vazquez has smarts and defense is better  ...

Goes to show , Rocco never puts the best players on the field ...

Everyone likes jeffers because he hits alittle better , but it's inconsistent streaky  ...

Vázquez has smarts? How do you say that or measure it compared to Jeffers not having them?

[Linus]

Again any of these extension articles have to include the players age - it’s critical to the thought process.  Comparing Raleigh and Jeffers is a joke - they are not at the same level at all.

Given the Twins part time usage of catchers it seems silly to give one of them big money.  I don’t mind Jeffers but he really is the definition of average.  Pay him the next two years and move on.

[LambchoP]

I'd wait to see how this year plays out. Will he hit like first half Jeffers or second half Jeffers of last year? He's not great defensively so he'll need to stay healthy and hit well to be of bvalue.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

To all the people squashing a potential Jeffers extension, please look at the minors and tell me who will replace him.

A healthy league average catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Because he has been mostly part-time, the mileage on his body is not as bad as it could be.  I am not a huge fan of a over-long contract here, but something along the lines of 4/$55m with a loud team option or two makes sense to me.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I think it all comes down to who's signing the checks. 5 years seems reasonable enough, though I don't think he compares that well to the others in the article. Maybe more like 5 years @60 mil?

It's a tough game to play because there just have not been may catcher extensions in the recent past. Raleigh's 3 years of arbitration got bought out at about 11M each, but then it jumps into the 20s after that. Jeffers isn't worth that. And Smith's 14M AAV would have likely been higher had he signed for 6 years like the others. When I play the unwinnable game of guessing contracts, I tend to err on the side overestimating the cost. I could feasibly see a 4/48, a 3/45, 3/40, or something like that getting it done, but I'm not paid enough to soothsay.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How can you compare these guys without including the amount of games played/started?

"He’s never caught in more than 86 games in a season, and he’s stayed relatively healthy, only missing significant time in 2022 (presumably due, in part, to the Twins’ commitment to splitting time to keep both primary catchers fresh). The lack of miles on his tires may protect him a bit from a catcher’s typical aging curve (or cliff).

However, that brings up another point: Jeffers has never been a full-time catcher. The last three catchers to get multi-year extensions consistently caught at least 100 games per year. If the Twins are committing that money to Jeffers, would they need him to catch more often than not, and would his body hold up to that workload? We’ve never seen it before for him, so that’s a question."

24 minutes ago, Linus said:

Again any of these extension articles have to include the players age - it’s critical to the thought process. Comparing Raleigh and Jeffers is a joke - they are not at the same level at all.

Jeffers and the other 3 catchers' ages were referenced several times, as well as the danger of signing up for an aging catcher's services, given their aging curve. There were also multiple notes that Jeffers is not the same caliber of catcher as Raleigh (despite roughly equal offense), which is why I didn't suggest signing him to a contract that paid out 20M in any year. If Raleigh was going to sign a six year deal that only bought out his last year of arbitration, his AAV would be in the 20s, not 17.5.

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

"He’s never caught in more than 86 games in a season, and he’s stayed relatively healthy, only missing significant time in 2022 (presumably due, in part, to the Twins’ commitment to splitting time to keep both primary catchers fresh). The lack of miles on his tires may protect him a bit from a catcher’s typical aging curve (or cliff).

However, that brings up another point: Jeffers has never been a full-time catcher. The last three catchers to get multi-year extensions consistently caught at least 100 games per year. If the Twins are committing that money to Jeffers, would they need him to catch more often than not, and would his body hold up to that workload? We’ve never seen it before for him, so that’s a question."

Jeffers and the other 3 catchers' ages were referenced several times, as well as the danger of signing up for an aging catcher's services, given their aging curve. There were also multiple notes that Jeffers is not the same caliber of catcher as Raleigh (despite roughly equal offense), which is why I didn't suggest signing him to a contract that paid out 20M in any year. If Raleigh was going to sign a six year deal that only bought out his last year of arbitration, his AAV would be in the 20s, not 17.5.

I re- read and see his age.  My mistake.

[Greggory Masterson]

15 minutes ago, Linus said:

I re- read and see his age.  My mistake.

It's admittedly a huge part of this conversation/decision, but the writeup was getting long and I had a lot of aspects I wanted to note, so I ended up deleting a bit of the 28 y/o and arbitration years discussions

Edited March 28, 2025 by Greggory Masterson

[C_frommn]

Well unless the Twins are going to go out and make a Splash. Trading for or grabbing a Free Agent they need to stay with what they know. Ar far as whois signing the checks. that could be interesting the Pohlads are Stingy(was going to say Cheap) but unlike pitchers or other fielders good catchers seldom hit the market.

[Gamblerssoftball]

It seems doubtful to me that contract extensions would be on the table until ownership issues are more clearly defined. No sale this year probably means extensions are going to be put off as well. Revenue looks to significantly less than in the past.

[Doctor Gast]

I like Jeffers; he was drafted higher than many expected as a hitter 1st catcher. He's a good hitter & works very hard at catching. Swanson helped him at framing but that has suffered due to focusing on limiting the running game. Some say that he's a streaky hitter, but I contest that he's a very consistent hitter, especially after veering away from the Twins' old hitting philosophy. The problem with Jeffers is that he doesn't have the stamina to be the primary catcher that this FO has hyped him out to be. He's a weak side tandem where he excels at; throughout his career, anything more than this he starts to wane defensively & offensively. 

I've advocated since '22 to obtain a promising young catcher to potentially fill the primary catching duties & also help give leverage in negotiating with Jeffers. Jeffers has Boras as an agent, so that means he wants to max out on the hype & get the kind of payday that you are alluding to. Falvey has blindly put all his hope in Jeffers so that next year, when Vazquez is gone, we have nobody to fill the gap. That'll give Boras all the leverage he needs. Jeffers lacks the stamina & defense to come close to being a top ten catcher. I'm fine with extending Jeffers for $8+M but not $ that the catchers you are comparing him to (who are top ten catchers). Wilson Conteras, who is a better hitting & defensive catcher with the Cubs than Jeffers, is no longer catching.

With Boras, I don't see the Twins extending Jeffers for $8+M, IMO there are 2 logical outcomes to this scenario: 1st, the Twins would way overpay for Jeffers. I have my doubts that the Twins can afford the $8M, much less the money that Boras wants. The other is what Boras prefers; that is, Jeffers walks & tests the FA. Even if Jeffers stays, they'll need a FA Vazquez to cover the void. If he walks, we need 2 Vazquezes. Due to lack of foresight, Twins suffer

 

[bean5302]

Cal Raleigh is one of the top catchers in baseball. Jeffers is not anywhere close. I'd go 4yrs $28MM for Jeffers now. Raleigh is durable, a better defensive catcher, and a consistently near All Star caliber bat for a position player, let alone a catcher. He put up a more valuable season last year than any Twins player has ever accomplished under Derek Falvey's regime.  

Raleigh vs. Jeffers from Raleigh's first full season.
fWAR
2022 - 4.2 vs. 0.8 fWAR
2023 - 4.3 vs. 2.3 fWAR
2024 - 5.4 vs. 1.7 fWAR
Last 3 - 13.9 vs. 4.7 fWAR

Plate Appearances
2022 - 415 vs. 236 PA
2023 - 569 vs. 335 PA
2024 - 628 vs. 465 PA
Last 3 - 1,610 vs. 1,036

Batting
2022 - 122 vs. 86 wRC+
2023 - 113 vs. 137 wRC+
2024 - 117 vs. 107 wRC+
Last 3 - 117 vs. 112 wRC+

Jeffers has a league average bat. That super luck fueled 2023 makes a huge impact on Jeffers career numbers. wRC+ 83, 86, 137, 107. It's pretty easy to see the outlier there. Jeffers is just your average run of the mill starting catcher.

[twinstalker]

Jeffers has been a good player.  You ride him out and let him go.  Because catchers 30+ not only often can't catch anymore, they rarely can ever hit.  And Jeffers is hit and miss in his prime.  What a foolish thing to do with your money.

Maybe you get a drafting department that understands how to find hitting talent.  Maybe you get a development staff that understands how to develop hitting.

[David Maro]

Time for a reality check,the team has 70 million go to 3 part time players. Why on earth would they sign another one to big money. This team is operating on a limited payroll and will need to start paying players who play. This year Lopez is at 21 million adding him to the Correa and Buxton payroll. And saying Vasquez catch Lopez last night would have made a difference is silly. When you throw a pitch in the middle of the zone it is going to get hit no matter who the catcher is.

[sweetmusicviola16]

It is pretty much a consensus that Vazquez is overpaid, he's a part-time player. Jeffers is also a part time player. Nothing suggests that he won't continue to be one. He's only getting older. As a part time player we can't be paying him as the top full time players are. I'd be ok with extending him, but not for 12 mil plus. 9mil tops is all I'd do and that is still a slight overpay. If over paying one part time player has been adverse why go down that same road again so soon?

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, umterp23 said:

Vázquez has smarts? How do you say that or measure it compared to Jeffers not having them?

You know that graph in Forest Gump? Vasquez was just above that line and Jeffers was just a little below. Tools of ignorance. 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

It's admittedly a huge part of this conversation/decision, but the writeup was getting long and I had a lot of aspects I wanted to note, so I ended up deleting a bit of the 28 y/o and arbitration years discussions

It is because he is right at the point where it’s tempting to not let him walk but also risky to extend him for a lengthy contract, especially because he doesn’t hit so well you would DH him or move him to first.

[Jocko87]

If I'm extending a catcher, I have to be able to project his bat playing at first base DH in the latter parts of the contract.

Jeffers might fit that mold and I'd expect a step forward with the bat without the work of a catcher. It's a young man's position to hit and play defense, pick one.

Reason number 47 not to invest in a long term first baseman.

[chpettit19]

There are 6 catchers in baseball that make 10 million or more, and Vazquez is going to come off the list after this year. Potentially Sal Perez as well, but the Royals may pick up that option. Rutschman and the younger Contreras will eventually be added to the list, and Kirk's salary jumps next year with his new extension. But Realmuto will be coming back down to earth some on his next deal and so will Perez. 

Do we really think Ryan Jeffers is worth not just top 10 catcher money, but top 5 catcher money? Ryan Jeffers is an $8 million catcher. He's Danny Jansen, not Cal Raleigh. The Twins have no business extending Ryan Jeffers for $14 million per year. And the shape of the system has nothing to do with it. The system having very limited options doesn't mean you overpay Jeffers by 6 million. He's not the only option. The rest of the free agent market will still be there. You can sign 2 catchers for that 6 million overpay.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

...Do we really think Ryan Jeffers is worth not just top 10 catcher money, but top 5 catcher money? Ryan Jeffers is an $8 million catcher. He's Danny Jansen, not Cal Raleigh...

I think the writer is just a big fan of Jeffers so he's fudging Jeffers' production a little through some cherry picking and optimism.

[Greggory Masterson]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think the writer is just a big fan of Jeffers so he's fudging Jeffers' production a little through some cherry picking and optimism.

Incorrect. I think that Ryan Jeffers is a fine, average-level starting catcher. At no point in the article did I say that the Twins should extend Ryan Jeffers. I’m personally not a “big fan” of him (here’s me also exploring the idea of trading him over the offseason:

. I just used Raleigh’s extension to explore the idea. The contract number that I threw out was an estimate of what it might take to actually get an extension done given his production, age, and remaining team control. And for this type of exercise, I tend to overestimate the cost, because I’d prefer the complaints to be “he’s not worth that” instead of “dream on that’s a sweetheart deal.”

[DocBauer]

I like the way he calls a game and handles the staff. I like his better than league average bat, way better than average for a catcher. And he's only 28yo? He's just entering his prime physical years and he hasn't been worn down by overuse at all.

And you don't often find quality catchers with above league average offense available. I'd absolutely do 4yrs and $40M. Maybe front load the first couple of years and throw in a 5th year option with a buyout? I think he's worth $10M. More than that I have to at least pause for a moment.. but if he strokes 20HR every year for the next 4-5 seasons, he'd absolutely be worth $12M per.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

It's a tough game to play because there just have not been may catcher extensions in the recent past. Raleigh's 3 years of arbitration got bought out at about 11M each, but then it jumps into the 20s after that. Jeffers isn't worth that. And Smith's 14M AAV would have likely been higher had he signed for 6 years like the others. When I play the unwinnable game of guessing contracts, I tend to err on the side overestimating the cost. I could feasibly see a 4/48, a 3/45, 3/40, or something like that getting it done, but I'm not paid enough to soothsay.

As grumpy as you can be I'm surprised your paid at all.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 minute ago, Verified Member said:

As grumpy as you can be I'm surprised your paid at all.

You cooked me here; I can't lie.