Aging Gracefully: How Buxton Retires a Minnesota Twin

[Nate Palmer]

Byron Buxton recently told Phil Miller he wants to finish his career as a Twin. What version of Buxton needs to exist as he ages for that dream to become reality? 

Recently Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton made the comment to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune that he would like to finish his career as a Twin. This is a pretty common sentiment from players who were drafted by and played the whole of their career with the same MLB club. This sort of statement is often celebrated by fanbases, but we know it gets complicated when evaluating Buxton in Twins Territory.  

Buxton is under his current contract through the 2028 season when he will be 34 years old. Buxton also holds a full no-trade clause with his contract, so if he wants to play in Minnesota he is in full control of that until the contract is complete. If Buxton wishes to continue playing at age 35, the question becomes what sort of player will he need to be in order for the Twins to want to sign him to another contract? 

Up to this point in his career Buxton has been a polarizing player as injuries have severely limited his playing time. With that in view, Buxton was able to play in 102 games in 2024 in which he was second on the team in fWAR (3.7) and third in WPA (1.76). There is no doubt that when he is healthy and on the field he makes a significant impact. Evidenced by his five seasons posting a fWAR above 3 even though only two seasons have seen Buxton play more than 100 games. 

The value is clearly there which has produced patience on the part of the Twins hoping to catch enough healthy games from Buxton to push the team towards playoff success. As the speedy center fielder ages three areas will come into focus as evaluation tools when it comes to the viability of a contract for that age 35 season: health, athleticism, and defense. 

Health
This is an obvious area of concern, but will only magnify as Buxton ages. Mother time is undefeated and our bones, tendons, and muscles only become more cranky and slower to heal as we age. If the Twins and Buxton have found a formula of success that can keep Buxton on the field for over 100 games that could be a likely step toward this box being checked. 

Likely the Twins will need to see if they can come to a contract sweet spot with Buxton where any of his potential missed time won’t tie up too much of the Twins resources. New ownership does have the potential to bring about a different financial reality. Traditionally the Twins haven’t had enough resources to want to risk it sitting in the training room for large chunks of the season. 

Athleticism
As will become evident, to some extent these three areas bleed together. As health is in question and age continues to creep in, every human's athleticism takes a hit. For some athletes it is less impactful than others. For Buxton, a player whose speed and ability to move creates much of his impact on the field, it may dictate a lot of his value into his thirties. 

One area that we may not think of immediately is Buxton’s bat speed. This is an area that Jamie Cameron covered at length and two things pop up about Buxton. First, right now his bat speed is very good among baseball players. Secondly, he is right at the age where we see that drop off dramatically. 

Buxton’s sprint speed is another area to watch as he ages. Since his rookie season he has lost about a foot per second in speed. While that isn’t good he still ranked as the 20th fastest in the league last season. It is obvious he will no longer be holding that number one spot like he had early on in his career, but he is still very fast when he can let loose.  

That leads us to the final area of evaluation…

Defense
As Buxton continues through the later part of his career the question of where he will play comes into full view. At what point will the Twins decide it is best to move him to a corner outfield spot much like the Angels are doing this season with Mike Trout who will turn 34 this season. Former Twins star outfielder Torii Hunter similarly made the same transition at age 35. 

What is hard about this switch is that each of these players derive so much of their value from being able to play a premier up the middle defensive position that the value vs. expense conversation becomes very real, very quickly once that change happens. That was evident in Hunter’s subsequent contracts. He went from making $18 million with the Angels to $12 and $14 million in the next contract with the Tigers. Then finally $10.5 million with the Twins in 2015 at age 39. 

As both Trout and Buxton will find out, the big difference between themselves and Hunter is that Torii was regularly playing the majority of a season even as he aged. Which is exactly why the Angels are making the move for Trout this season and it would likely be the reason the Twins would consider such a change. If Buxton can fully get over the hurdle of being both healthy and available, he most certainly has the bat skills to transfer to a corner position and still be worth paying a contract similar to what he is currently making. 

Last season’s .859 OPS and 137 OPS+ are evidence of that. If, as evidence seems to indicate from earlier, Buxton’s bat speed does decrease with age it may take reinventing of his approach at the plate to keep his production. As that happens, Buxton will also be fighting off external pressures as the Twins could still be a team that operates with limited resources in comparison to other clubs. Even under new ownership. Not to mention, there are a host of younger outfielders lining up behind him in the Twins system. 

While Buxton having the same durability as Hunter is unlikely. Buxton will need to build on his 102 games played in 2024 in order to make it make sense for the Twins to sign him as he turns 35 and not turn the reins over to a younger and likely more affordable player. By no means is Buxton finishing his career with the Twins with one final contract an insane idea either. If the club can feel comfortable with how he adjusts on the field to the aging of his body. 

Where do you see Buxton’s career arc finishing? Let us know below. 

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This is a good question. Based on just his injury history, when he made the comment this offseason I assumed he was saying more that he wanted to be able to finish out the contract he currently has in a healthy way. We all hope for that, obviously. IF this year is different, then we can see how 2026 goes (and HOPEFULLY there isn't a major lockout taking out 2027, but right now that appears potentially likely.)

All of this to say, if he does have 3 healthy seasons upcoming (I don't know, I can't see the future, it is possible/plausible in some ways) then we see where he is at come 2028.

With Jenkins and Rodriguez on the horizon, among other moves, he will have to stay healthy and produce. 

[LambchoP]

I think he'll need to have really healthy seasons up until his contract is up if we're to extend him. Maybe give him a cheap base salary with plenty of incentives to make more money based on games played. That way the deal doesn't sink us if he's always hurt. With guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschal, Rosario and Mccusker coming up Buck will have to outproduce some younger guys in order to get playing time ..

[Road trip]

Realistically?  Yes, if he retires when his current contract expires.  This may be more likely than we might think.  He's made plenty of money, and his body has to hurt quite a bit.

Or if he is incredibly humble about his (likely) declining skills at age 35 and agrees to a very substantial pay cut to play a couple more years.... well then that would be another possible route for him to retire a Twin.

Maybe he will age like Torii Hunter, but Torii was a statistical outlier and was rarely injured.  Usually speedy centerfielders are pretty much done by age 35, and injuries have take a toll on Buxton more than most of his peers.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I think the Hunter comp is pretty solid.  Obviously health is the key here, but a transition to a corner slot makes sense at some point (Walker Jenkins anyone?).  Overpays on short-term contracts do not really hurt teams, including the Twins.

The two points that really address the question at hand is how long does Buxton want to play, and will  other teams value him more than the Twins (Kepler) at some point.  

[old nurse]

Buxton has a no trade clause. Buxton has a contract through his age 34 season. Buxton will have made over 100 million by the end of the contract. After everybody gets their cut (taxes, agents, accountants) he should have made over 50 million. If there is no malfeasance by the accounts and the agents there really isn’t any reason to keep playing.  There is no reason to think after 13-14 injury filled seasons that anything different is going to happen 

[Karbo]

The Twins are just a better team when Buck plays, Their W-L record bears that out. With health being the big question, I don't really think he will go much past his current contract. If he can stay healthy that long then yes, sign him to a fair contract. After all, he has kind of been the face of the Twins for quite a while.

[jjswol]

I don't see even see Buxton staying in Minnesota through his current contract unless the Twins get to a World Series. Buxton wants to play for a winner more than stay and play for one team. He will waive his no-trade to get sent to a winning team.

 

[GNess]

Interesting question! One thought, if Buxton's production seriously declines as is possible what incentive and/or reasons would other MLB teams have to add him to their roster?  Seems like there is a decent chance Buck's career ends in a Twins uniform.. 

[bean5302]

I think the Twins will trade him in 2027 when his NTC bends to allow trades to 5 teams chosen by Buck.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd trade him as soon as ERod or Jenkins is ready. If you can find a taker and he approves. He's great when healthy.....

[Linus]

I think he plays out his contract and retires especially if he has health issues.  There is no ego in the man so he won’t keep playing for the limelight.  
I also think he will be a fine center fielder through the contract.  People associate his defensive prowess to his speed and Thats certainly helps but just as important is that he gets great jumps and takes excellent routes to the ball.  He also has excellent judgement - he knows when to dive and when to back off.  I know this will not be a popular opinion but I bet he will be a better CF than EmRod or Jenkins..

If something is going to crater with Buck I thing it will be the bat.  I worry that with his high hands and longish swing any significant reduction in bat speed is going to be a big problem.

[IndianaTwin]

Buxton's ability to stay with the Twins beyond 2028 could depend a lot on Correa. If Correa plays in such a way that his contract vests for 2029 or that Twins want to pick it up, that's a $25M commitment that ties up a major chunk of a budget. 

[DJL44]

Eric Davis kept playing to age 39. He's a good comp for Buxton both in talent and durability. Reggie Sanders shows up as a comp for both Buxton and Davis; he also played until age 39.

[Whitey333]

Another in a long endless line of articles about Byron Buxton.  It's been 10 years and we are still waiting to see the star Buxton perform regularly.  It's a shame that this super- hyped player has had to endure all these injuries.  We never got the chance to see him perform full time except in 2017.  But he has a few years left in his contract and I'm sure we will have plenty of more Twins Daily stories about him.  I actually hope he retires after his current contract expires.  He owes it to his body and let's face it the Twins have been more than generous with him financially considering his part time playing and availability status.

[Major League Ready]

I can see a number of reasons why that won’t happen.

1. Buxton would have to prove he can stay on the field over the next 4 seasons. 
2. He would need to be one of the few who are not declining significantly at that age.
3. It only makes sense if we don’t produce replacements.  We have Emma, Jenkins that are likely replacements.  Winokur likely ends up in the OF and Keaschall may as well.  Also, any college OFers drafted in the next couple years would also be potential replacements along with a couple other international signings currently in the system. 
4. The money is likely better spent elsewhere, starting with extending Ryan or Ober or Lewis or Wallner or an early extension of Emma or Jenkins or Keaschall.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

While Buxton would obviously have to make a transition away from CF, I think it is possible that he could retire as a Twin.  If his career took the Torii Hunter arc, it would be perfect.  The raw athleticism would give way to more consistency and slugging prowess that would make him solid in a corner spot or at DH.  As with all thoughts like this, some amount of continued health would need to follow, but that is true for all players, not just Buxton.  It would be really fun to watch a 38-40 year old Byron Buxton DHing in the World Series for the hometown nine!

[bean5302]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Eric Davis kept playing to age 39. He's a good comp for Buxton both in talent and durability. Reggie Sanders shows up as a comp for both Buxton and Davis; he also played until age 39.

Eric Davis and Byron Buxton have a lot of similarities. Similar peak talent, similar body type, similar at the plate with a lot of Ks and a lot of power (relative), and similar struggles with injuries (relative to their own time). Thing about Davis was he qualified 4 consecutive years 1987-1990 and from his first full season a24 through a28, Davis accumulated as many games and PA as Buxton has in his career, and Davis was simply a better hitter because he walked a lot.

I think Buxton's ceiling was Eric Davis, but even Davis only had 2 successful seasons in the 10 years after age 28.