The Major Leagues' Evolving Batting Orders: Rethinking Tradition

[Cody Christie]

Baseball is a game rooted in tradition, but the teams that find success are typically at the forefront of evolving trends. One area in which strategies have evolved especially rapidly over the last 20 years is batting order construction.

Image courtesy of Brad Penner (Wallner), Brad Rempel (Hicks)-USA TODAY Sports

For decades, major-league managers followed a relatively predictable script when crafting their batting orders. The leadoff hitter was almost always a speedy player who could hit singles and cause havoc on the base paths. The second hitter was a contact-focused player who could advance runners, while the team’s best overall hitter slotted into the third spot. The cleanup hitter? He was the power threat, expected to drive in runs and change the game with one swing.

But in today’s game, the traditional lineup structure is evolving. Teams are now prioritizing getting their best hitters to the plate more often, even if it means breaking from long-held conventions. This shift has led to unconventional choices at the top of the order, such as the Minnesota Twins experimenting with Matt Wallner as a leadoff hitter.

On a recent Patreon-exclusive episode of Gleeman and the Geek, John Bonnes and Aaron Gleeman discussed the evolution of batting order construction. Plainly, the way teams build their lineup has differed significantly over the last two decades. Let’s dive into some of the changes and how teams are trying to maximize value from the entire lineup.

The New-Age Leadoff Hitter
In the past, players like Rickey Henderson or Lou Brock embodied the classic leadoff profile: speedsters who could steal bases and disrupt pitchers’ rhythms. Now, front offices and analytics-inclined managers have realized that on-base percentage (OBP) and overall productivity are far more critical than pure speed at the top of the order. The logic is simple: the more often your best hitters get to the plate, the better your chances of scoring runs.

That (perhaps oversimplified) epiphany has brought power hitters and high-OBP sluggers into the leadoff discussion. Wallner might not fit the mold of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but his ability to get on base and hit for power makes him an intriguing option. By placing a high-OBP hitter like Wallner first, the Twins ensure that their most productive bats get more opportunities to do damage throughout the season.

Maximizing Opportunities for Elite Hitters
One of the most significant shifts in lineup construction is how teams deploy their best hitter. Traditionally, the third spot in the order was reserved for this role. However, modern analytics suggest that the extra plate appearances a player gets when batting second (and the slightly better mix of opportunities they have to create runs based on the base-out states when they come to the plate) make that spot more important than the No. 3 hole, meaning that elite hitters like Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Carlos Correa have seen significant time there.

By moving the best hitter to the second position, teams guarantee they hit in the first inning, ensuring a higher number of at-bats across 162 games. This philosophy has led to teams placing their traditional power hitters earlier in the order, flipping the old-school approach on its head. (In fairness, we should note that in 2024, the league produced the best overall batting line from its No. 3 hitters, but that actually bucked the recent trend toward ever-better second hitters.)

Another key trend is that cleanup hitters are no longer viewed as the ultimate run producers. Instead, power is spread throughout the lineup, ensuring that teams don’t waste their best bats waiting for a rally to materialize. Meanwhile, traditional No. 2 hitters (who had been tasked with advancing runners) are being replaced by sluggers who can drive in runs themselves.

This change has also had a ripple effect on the bottom of the order. With the emphasis on high-OBP players at the top, the lower third of the lineup often consists of contact hitters and speed threats who can set the table for another trip through the top of the order. By pushing their very best hitters ever higher, though, teams are making the bottom thirds of their lineups weaker than ever. Not since 1950 have batters 7-9 in the order been as bad, relative to overall league production, as they were in 2024.

Twins Historical Batting Order Changes
Twenty years ago, the 2005 Twins had some clear options to fill the top of their batting order. Shannon Stewart was the team’s leadoff hitter in 122 games. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire took a more variable approach to the No. 2 spot, but he had a specific player type in mind. Nick Punto (63 games, Luis Rodríguez (22 games), and Jason Bartlett (20 games) were all middle infielders who fit the traditional role for that lineup spot: lots of contact, little real production. Like Stewart, Joe Mauer was the team’s typical choice for the No. 3 spot (108 games), with Lew Ford being the second-most frequent option (32 games). In the cleanup spot, Minnesota rotated through Justin Morneau (58 games), Matt LeCroy (42 games), and Torii Hunter (34 games). 

In 2015, the Twins had a surprising second-place finish in the AL Central. Paul Molitor was in his first campaign as the manager, and he used Brian Dozier as his primary leadoff hitter (102 games), with Aaron Hicks also getting 31 starts. The second spot had three players make 21 or more starts, including Hunter (55 games), Dozier (46 games), and Mauer (21 games). Despite a handful of starts batting second, though, Mauer was clearly the team’s No. 3 hitter, with 133 starts. In the cleanup spot, the Twins split time between Trevor Plouffe (68 games) and Miguel Sanó (65 games). 

The Twins have used a more modern approach in recent years, including platoons at the top of the lineup. Willi Castro (48 games), Edouard Julien (38 games), and Manuel Margot (33 games) were used regularly as leadoff hitters, with non-traditional options like Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers getting more than 10 starts. Correa and Larnach split time in the lineup's second spot, with 45 or more starts each. Seven players made 10 or more starts in the third spot, with Royce Lewis (37 games) leading the way. Max Kepler (43 games) and Jose Miranda (33 games) were the most-used options for the No. 4 spot. 

Whereas Gardenhire and Molitor each grew up in a version of the game that emphasized the sequential and team-oriented ways to score runs, Rocco Baldelli was raised watching—and later playing—a power-centric game. Naturally, and with plenty of reinforcement from the front office, he has learned to build lineups that put runs on the board immediately, including with just one swing. The philosophies at work are different, working both as effects and causes of big changes in the game itself—and thus, what makes sense when filling out a lineup card.

A Trend Here to Stay?
With a better understanding of run production and lineup optimization, teams are more willing than ever to break the mold. For the Twins and other teams looking to maximize offensive output, experimenting with non-traditional leadoff hitters (be it Wallner, Kyle Schwarber, or any other highly competent but anti-stereotypical slugger) could be the key to unlocking more runs. The days of rigid batting order rules are fading, replaced by a new age of lineup construction that values production over convention.

---

Are there other ways for teams to modernize their lineup construction, despite prevailing trends in the dynamic of pitchers and hitters and power creep throughout the game? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[Muppet]

Leading off with your best two hitters is definitely a good move when stealing basis is no longer a part of the game. I'd be worried about wasting leadoff hits/walks/hbps with double plays in the next 1-2 at bats. So I'd be more interested to see a thousand simulations of having a fast, but not terrible, hitter in the 2 spot. How would a Wallner-Buxton 1-2 perform over a Wallner-Correa 1-2? 

[Karbo]

Yhe concern I have with putting a player like Wallner leading off is douple play grounders. I guess time will tell, but I would think a slower footed player could really clog up the bases. We'll see how things work out.

[RpR]

The graph seems to show they are merely back where it started, nothing really new.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Yhe concern I have with putting a player like Wallner leading off is douple play grounders. I guess time will tell, but I would think a slower footed player could really clog up the bases. We'll see how things work out.

Shockingly, Wallner has above average foot speed.  On the other hand, Max Kepler, who no one accuses of being slow, actually is slow. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I believe the numbers show that every spot in the lineup gets ~20 more PA than the next one over the course of the season.  Meaning the leadoff position gets 20 more PA than the 2nd position, 2nd position gets 20 more than the 3rd position, etc...

I have never understood why you take great hitters and have them bat 4th or 5th when you have low contact/OBP guys batting leadoff or second, costing them 60-80 (!) PA over the course of a year.

The top 3 spots in the lineup should always be Correa, Buxton, and Wallner in some capacity.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I believe the numbers show that every spot in the lineup gets ~20 more PA than the next one over the course of the season.  Meaning the leadoff position gets 20 more PA than the 2nd position, 2nd position gets 20 more than the 3rd position, etc...

I have never understood why you take great hitters and have them bat 4th or 5th when you have low contact/OBP guys batting leadoff or second, costing them 60-80 (!) PA over the course of a year.

The top 3 spots in the lineup should always be Correa, Buxton, and Wallner in some capacity.

 

100% agree with this, unless of course you moving guys all around the lineup based on matchups and what not, then it seems not to matter as much over the course of the season, but still does during the game.

[chpettit19]

It's not complicated. Get your best hitters to the plate the most. Figure out who your 4 or 5 best hitters are and put them in the top 4 or 5 spots. 

Save the platooning/pinch hitting guys for the 5 or 6 through 9 holes. Outside of 2023, the team has been horrible at pinch hitting. Pinch hitters as a whole pay a price compared to their normal batting line. Stop putting platoon bats at the top of the lineup only to pinch hit for them later. 

Put your 4 or 5 best hitters at the top of the lineup and leave them there all game, every game. Not because major league hitters get confused by hitting in a different spot in the lineup but because creating lineups is simple. Get your best hitters to the plate as often as possible.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article, I was wondering why Wallner has been the leadoff hitter all spring, but I hadn't realized that his OBP was so good, nor that he actually had some speed. Learning something new every day is good! But I would also think, as Fire Dan Gladden wrote, that both Buxton and Correa would merit some consideration at that spot also. If they are healthy, having more at-bats would be a very good thing. 

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I believe the numbers show that every spot in the lineup gets ~20 more PA than the next one over the course of the season.  Meaning the leadoff position gets 20 more PA than the 2nd position, 2nd position gets 20 more than the 3rd position, etc...

I have never understood why you take great hitters and have them bat 4th or 5th when you have low contact/OBP guys batting leadoff or second, costing them 60-80 (!) PA over the course of a year.

The top 3 spots in the lineup should always be Correa, Buxton, and Wallner in some capacity.

 

 

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I believe the numbers show that every spot in the lineup gets ~20 more PA than the next one over the course of the season.  Meaning the leadoff position gets 20 more PA than the 2nd position, 2nd position gets 20 more than the 3rd position, etc...

I have never understood why you take great hitters and have them bat 4th or 5th when you have low contact/OBP guys batting leadoff or second, costing them 60-80 (!) PA over the course of a year.

The top 3 spots in the lineup should always be Correa, Buxton, and Wallner in some capacity.

 

Diff
Batting 1st	4,856	22,598	4.65	0.43	600.00	–
Batting 2nd	4,856	22,077	4.55	0.32	586.17	13.83
Batting 3rd	4,856	21,530	4.43	0.21	571.64	28.36
Batting 4th	4,856	21,039	4.33	0.11	558.61	41.39
Batting 5th	4,856	20,569	4.24	0.01	546.13	53.87
Batting 6th	4,856	20,054	4.13	(0.09)	532.45	67.55
Batting 7th	4,856	19,485	4.01	(0.21)	517.35	82.65
Batting 8th	4,856	18,923	3.90	(0.33)	502.42	97.58
Batting 9th	4,856	18,305	3.77	(0.45)	486.02	113.98
Total	43,704	184,580	4.22	–	544.53	55.47

PA/GS: Plate Appearances per Game Started
PADiff/G: Plate Appearance difference per Game Started
PADiff/600: PADiff/G prorated to 600 PAs

From rotographs 

[IndianaTwin]

20 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I believe the numbers show that every spot in the lineup gets ~20 more PA than the next one over the course of the season.  Meaning the leadoff position gets 20 more PA than the 2nd position, 2nd position gets 20 more than the 3rd position, etc...

I have never understood why you take great hitters and have them bat 4th or 5th when you have low contact/OBP guys batting leadoff or second, costing them 60-80 (!) PA over the course of a year.

The top 3 spots in the lineup should always be Correa, Buxton, and Wallner in some capacity.

 

Each of 162 games has to have a last batter, so if you divide them evenly, it works out to 18 PAs per spot. In actuality, it should skew a little to have slightly fewer games end with a batter at the top of the order than at the bottom, since a top of the order is less likely to make an out. I'm not sure how much difference that makes in actuality, so I think people have just used the 18. 

I like the Wallner-Correa-Buxton-Larnach top of the order that sounds like it's been used several times during spring training, at least against right handers. 

Amongst Wallner, Correa, Buxton, another reason to have Wallner bat first is that he strikes out the most. If both Wallner and Correa make outs 61 percent of the time, but Wallner strikes out significantly more often, better to have him first.

Said another way, Correa is more likely to move Wallner along the basepaths with a ball-in-play out than Wallner is to move Correa along. Additionally, if Wallner is a little faster than Correa, he's more likely to take an extra base on a hit than Correa is. (I realize there's more to baserunning than speed -- maybe Correa is actually better at taking the extra base.) 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Diff
Batting 1st	4,856	22,598	4.65	0.43	600.00	–
Batting 2nd	4,856	22,077	4.55	0.32	586.17	13.83
Batting 3rd	4,856	21,530	4.43	0.21	571.64	28.36
Batting 4th	4,856	21,039	4.33	0.11	558.61	41.39
Batting 5th	4,856	20,569	4.24	0.01	546.13	53.87
Batting 6th	4,856	20,054	4.13	(0.09)	532.45	67.55
Batting 7th	4,856	19,485	4.01	(0.21)	517.35	82.65
Batting 8th	4,856	18,923	3.90	(0.33)	502.42	97.58
Batting 9th	4,856	18,305	3.77	(0.45)	486.02	113.98
Total	43,704	184,580	4.22	–	544.53	55.47

PA/GS: Plate Appearances per Game Started
PADiff/G: Plate Appearance difference per Game Started
PADiff/600: PADiff/G prorated to 600 PAs

From rotographs 

Thanks. 

Is this the number of plate appearances for the starters? If so, that's going to be skewed, since bottom of the order guys tend to get pinch hit for more often. Best to look at total plate appearances from each spot in the lineup. 

Or, is the third numerical column the average number of at bats from each spot in the lineup. If you look at the next column over, you'll see that it's roughly .11 at bats more per spot in the lineup going up and down from the 5th spot in the order. And since .11 is essentially 1/9, that makes sense.

And as noted in my previous comment, it does skew a bit to larger differences at the bottom (about .12 per spot). There's rounding involved, as demonstrated by the fifth batter averaging 4.24 compared to the average 4.22, but showing only 0.01 as its difference. 

 

[LambchoP]

I think I'd rather see Correa or even Buck leading off. I get that you want a high OBP guys at the top, but Wallner strikes out too much to be leadoff imo. He also stands a good chance of leading the team in home runs and you'd like to see some guys on base in front of him for all those bombs. Eventually when we get Keaschal up he could be a potential lead off guy 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. 

Is this the number of plate appearances for the starters? If so, that's going to be skewed, since bottom of the order guys tend to get pinch hit for more often. Best to look at total plate appearances from each spot in the lineup. 

Or, is the third numerical column the average number of at bats from each spot in the lineup. If you look at the next column over, you'll see that it's roughly .11 at bats more per spot in the lineup going up and down from the 5th spot in the order. And since .11 is essentially 1/9, that makes sense.

And as noted in my previous comment, it does skew a bit to larger differences at the bottom (about .12 per spot). There's rounding involved, as demonstrated by the fifth batter averaging 4.24 compared to the average 4.22, but showing only 0.01 as its difference. 

 

fangraphs.com/buying-generic-plate-appearances-by-lineup-spot/

 

They on’t let ne put the link in, but you should be able to figure out how to get there. I thought I had credited rotgraphs for it.  Then there is the problem that TD is giving me 2 point type to try to read when making a comment.  Sorry if any words ere autocorrected into something unintelligible it must be a fefarious plot to keep me from posting 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think I'd rather see Correa or even Buck leading off. I get that you want a high OBP guys at the top, but Wallner strikes out too much to be leadoff imo. He also stands a good chance of leading the team in home runs and you'd like to see some guys on base in front of him for all those bombs. Eventually when we get Keaschal up he could be a potential lead off guy 

Wallner had the second highest OBP last year. Considering the horrendous t start last year, he might actually be the best choice. 

[DocBauer]

What's funny/interesting to me is how what came around comes around again. And we say it's "change". Based on the "new" lineup construction that is taking place, Henderson and Raines back in the 80's and 90's would still be the optimum #1 batter. Slugger Brian Downing for the Angels was their #1 for a time based on power and OB%. Boggs and Gwynn were #1 hitters. 

This isn't a new idea. It's about ideas that have been around for decades about how to build a lineup vs ideas that were so old school that they don't play in today's game. And the league is starting to figure it out.

The days of a low OB% batter with speed and a below AVG OB contact hitter batting 2nd to move the runner along is proven to be a failure in today's game.

Personally, I believe in a deep lineup...SURPRISE...where you put your best 4-5 position players to get as many AB as they can get.  But I also believe in the DEPTH of that lineup.  IF Julien or Keaschall could be a good hit OB% #1 and slide Wallner down to a power and RBI slot so much the better. 

But that means you have an actual table setter. Right now, we don't.  So the idea of Wallner and his power and OB% makes a lot of sense.

[dxpavelka]

"By moving the best hitter to the second position, teams guarantee they hit in the first inning,"  I am by no means an expert but I tend to think that the guy in the third position will get a LOT of 1st inning at bats as well.  Am I missing something?

[Riverbrian]

The Average number of plate appearances per game is 37.4.

Loosely 10 or 11 batters above the minimum. 

Depending if you like to round up or down. If you play an average game. The 9th inning will be 8-9-1 or 9-1-2 in the order. That's 4 times around the order with the 1 and 2 slots getting a little extra love with 5th trips to the plate potentially in the last inning. 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

One significant change did impact line up construction in the mid 70s. The DH meant that the number 9 hitter was no longer the pitcher. There was a much better chance the the number 1 and 2 hitters would see a runner on base instead of an extra out. It allowed teams to rethink line up construction.

The Harvey’s Wallbangers Brewers in 1982 had the “perfect” number 2 hitter in Charlie Moore and Jim Gantner. They could bunt, put the ball in play and do all of the things of a Ron Gardenhire number 2 hitter. They started the year with Moore batting second  but broke tradition by putting major league’s best hitter in that spot in Robin Yount. A manager change from Bob Rodger’s to Harvey Kuehl made permanent that change. Their lead off hitter not only had a high OBP but contributed also contributed power and speed in Paul Molitor. The Brewers put their two batters most likely to get on base in spots 1 and 2. Moore batted eighth and Gantner batted ninth.

Baseball is a copycat sport and some teams took notice including two AL champions shortly after the Brewers season. The 1984 Tigers had their two high OBP hitters batting 1 and 2 in Whitaker and Trammell. In 1983 the Tigers most frequent number 2 hitter was Darrell Evans. The 1986 Red Sox started the season leading  off with Dwight Evans followed by Wade Boggs. They had three stolen bases between them but their combined OBP was over .400. The did move Boggs to lead off and used Marty Barrett to bat second by the end of the season. Barrett had an OBP of .353 as opposed to Evans .376 and could be viewed as a traditional number 2 hitter (with the addition of a high OBP) but Boggs wasn’t anything like the traditional number 1 with 0 stolen bases.

If there ever was a traditional lineup it was broken at least 40 years ago. Maybe the DH helped to break that tradition.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Doc's comments are the correct response. Read above. 

I will add that pitching is different today. Roster size has generally been at 25 players and pitching staffs were routinely around 10 or less. The 13 person pitching staffs have changed the makeup of teams position side as well as made max effort pitching more common. If rosters were 25 again, there would need to be some adjustments by a manager.

"In the past, players like Rickey Henderson or Lou Brock embodied the classic leadoff profile: speedsters who could steal bases and disrupt pitchers’ rhythms."

This line in the article caught my attention right away. Wallner will never hit as many home runs as Ricky did in his career. Wallner is also unlikely to reach the HR totals of Lou Brock.

The more things change the more they stay the same. Kids these days.