How Cole Ragans Offers Hope for a Similarly Talented Twins Southpaw

[Matthew Lenz]

Cole Ragans had multiple UCL surgeries before he turned 22. Despite that, he's turned into a Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher, and he earned himself some guaranteed money before entering arbitration. His story should have Minnesota Twins fans optimistic about a pitching prospect who has faced similar adversity.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

After being drafted 30th overall by the Texas Rangers in 2016, Cole Ragans had a good start to his 2017 campaign with Low-A Spokane, carrying a 3.80 FIP and 34.8% strikeout rate at 19 years old. Unfortunately, he left his Aug. 30 start after just 1 ⅔ innings with elbow discomfort. That led to his first UCL procedure. He had a subsequent surgery on Mar. 28, 2018, after feeling pain in the same elbow during a spring training intrasquad game

After a long rehab process and losing 2020 to COVID, it ended up being 1,344 days between starts for the left-hander. He returned on May 5, 2021, and has impressed ever since. In 2024, he finished fourth in Cy Young voting, and he recently signed a three-year deal, giving him cost certainty during his arbitration years. The 27-year-old has flourished in the face of adversity, which should leave Twins fans optimistic about Connor Prielipp’s future.

Like Ragans, Prielipp has had multiple UCL surgeries before he could make it past High-A ball, although the circumstances surrounding those procedures were a bit different. Prielipp had his first Tommy John during his sophomore season with the University of Alabama. Despite the injury and limited track record, he declared for the 2022 MLB Draft and was selected by the Twins in the second round. It was a high-risk, high-reward selection, and it wouldn't take long for the Twins and Prielipp to see the risk go from an abstraction to a concrete problem. He experienced arm soreness two appearances into his professional career, leading to his second elbow surgery at 22 years old. While it remains to be seen exactly how well Prielipp rebounds from these procedures, Ragans represents hope that the lefty now sees the reward materialize into a productive and healthy 2025 season.

While Prielipp is likely to start the year where he ended 2024 (at Cedar Rapids), he’s one of those arms who could sprint through the minor-league levels (which would be another similarity to Ragans). In fact, before the Danny Coulombe signing, Greggory Masterson that Prielipp could be the left-handed reliever the Twins needed for 2025, and Nash Walker called him a “Major X Factor”. While it was always unlikely he would debut in 2025, it just reinforces how impactful he can be if he stays healthy. Realistically, it's probably best for the 24-year-old to prioritize making it through an entire minor-league season and instead set his sights on 2026 for that breakthrough.

If everything falls right, Prielipp could have a Ragans-esque ascension and impact on the Twins very soon. If that happens, we may look back to the team-friendly three-year deal that Ragans just signed as a blueprint for the Twins to lock in some cost certainty for Prielipp. While Ragans is the exception to the rule, Prielipp has the arm talent to flourish in the face of adversity.

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[chpettit19]

Prielipp has the chance to be the homegrown ace we're all looking for. I'd expect him to be on a pretty strict innings limit this year while making a bunch of 2-4 inning starts in the minors. He has a chance to debut at some point out of the pen this year and really be on the right track. Turning into Ragans would be awesome and isn't a far-fetched idea.

[Karbo]

High bar to set, but I'll be pulling for him!

[LambchoP]

It would be amazing to have a lefty handed home grown ace in our rotation. That should be the goal. If he can't seem to sustain a starters workload though, a lefty handed hard throwing closer wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Either way, Prelipp should be fun to watch progress this year. Hopefully he can stay healthy and put himself in the best position possible for a late season call up 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Prielipp has the chance to be the homegrown ace we're all looking for. I'd expect him to be on a pretty strict innings limit this year while making a bunch of 2-4 inning starts in the minors. He has a chance to debut at some point out of the pen this year and really be on the right track. Turning into Ragans would be awesome and isn't a far-fetched idea.

Since he ended last year at 3.0 inning outings, I'd think he'd pick back up there for maybe April.
April 3.0 inning, 50 pitches max
May 4.0 inning, 60 pitches max
June 4.0 inning. 70 pitches max
July 5.0 inning. 75 pitches max
August 5.0 inning. 80 pitches max
September 6.0 inning. 85 pitches max
100 innings-ish total

Something like that is what I'd expect to see, though obviously not that steady on a start to start basis. I think a lot of it depends on whether or not Prielipp can remain healthy. It's a tall call since Prielipp has mostly been out of action for so long. Will his conditioning hold up or will he start having fatigue during the long season? That 98mph in mid-Feb isn't necessarily a great thing if he's pushing like it's a tryout and risking his arm.

I also don't think there's almost any chance of seeing Prielipp out of the 'pen at the MLB level. He's not on the 40 man and he doesn't need to be added until this offseason. The Twins shouldn't need to manage his innings late in the year, and while he'll probably start off in AA, that's still a lot of ground to cover where he'll have to A) be outstanding B) remain healthy where the Twins C) have a real need for a reliever and D) will trust an unproven MiLB player to provide those reliever innings.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Since he ended last year at 3.0 inning outings, I'd think he'd pick back up there for maybe April.
April 3.0 inning, 50 pitches max
May 4.0 inning, 60 pitches max
June 4.0 inning. 70 pitches max
July 5.0 inning. 75 pitches max
August 5.0 inning. 80 pitches max
September 6.0 inning. 85 pitches max
100 innings-ish total

Something like that is what I'd expect to see, though obviously not that steady on a start to start basis. I think a lot of it depends on whether or not Prielipp can remain healthy. It's a tall call since Prielipp has mostly been out of action for so long. Will his conditioning hold up or will he start having fatigue during the long season? That 98mph in mid-Feb isn't necessarily a great thing if he's pushing like it's a tryout and risking his arm.

I also don't think there's almost any chance of seeing Prielipp out of the 'pen at the MLB level. He's not on the 40 man and he doesn't need to be added until this offseason. The Twins shouldn't need to manage his innings late in the year, and while he'll probably start off in AA, that's still a lot of ground to cover where he'll have to A) be outstanding B) remain healthy where the Twins C) have a real need for a reliever and D) will trust an unproven MiLB player to provide those reliever innings.

Seems like a reasonable breakdown of a plan for him. 

I don't think it's likely that he debuts this year, but I think it's a possibility. I don't think there's many people who watch him pitch and don't think he has MLB stuff right now. He had MLB stuff coming out of college. He has one of the best sliders on the planet. How well he holds up is a real question and he very well may be worn out by September and not a real option. But if he's as good as everyone thinks he is talent-wise he should be outstanding and getting to the majors in a pen role is very realistic. He's quite possibly one of the 15 most talented arms the Twins have right now. Whether the Twins actually decide to use him or not is very much up in the air as they aren't exactly known for taking chances on young guys if they don't have to. I certainly wouldn't bet on him debuting, but I think it's a real chance if his arm holds up. Not needing to be added to the 40-man shouldn't play any role in the decision. If he has to be added in November anyways not adding him in September if he's one of your 13 best arms is an incredibly flawed decision.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

... I certainly wouldn't bet on him debuting, but I think it's a real chance if his arm holds up. Not needing to be added to the 40-man shouldn't play any role in the decision. If he has to be added in November anyways not adding him in September if he's one of your 13 best arms is an incredibly short-sighted decision.

I think he'd come up as a starter, not a bullpen arm if Prielipp is dominating. I'm not convinced the Twins won't have depth issues this year.

The TD Hype Machine is burning hot blue flames for Prielipp right now, but I think it would be prudent to cool it down a bit. The consensus I've seen is there is no consensus because nobody is talking about him other than TD. This is a big year for Prielipp to prove his stuff against real competition. Prielipp is a 3 pitch guy which can be limiting out of the rotation, and a 23 year old college pick blowing the doors off low minors guys in short outings isn't going to turn too many heads.

https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/
 

Quote

Tier 4
Prielipp has pitched only 30 innings since being drafted in 2022, so this season will give us a better idea if he can be an impactful pitcher.

Prielipp ended 2024 outside the top 20 for MLB, and ended 2024 as #17 for Fangraphs. He started 2025 as #13 for Prospects1500. 

There is no doubt a guy like Prielipp still has an enormous ceiling, but until he's pitching against high minors talent and going through the order more than once, it's impossible to truly grade his stuff. If Prielipp has a good spring and starts the year off hot in AA, I expect he'll garner a lot of attention, but expecting the kind of performance which would make him one of the best 13 arms for the MLB roster is too much of a leap for me.

[Linus]

I loved this pick by the Twins even with the injury concerns.  Sometimes you just have to chase the ceiling, especially with high picks.  I also agree with others that we will know a lot more this year as he faces high minors competition.  If he dominates upper minors and earns a call up bring him up as a starter and let him pitch 4 innings and have someone designated to piggy back him.  I’ll take the quality over quantity.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I think he'd come up as a starter, not a bullpen arm if Prielipp is dominating. I'm not convinced the Twins won't have depth issues this year.

The TD Hype Machine is burning hot blue flames for Prielipp right now, but I think it would be prudent to cool it down a bit. The consensus I've seen is there is no consensus because nobody is talking about him other than TD. This is a big year for Prielipp to prove his stuff against real competition. Prielipp is a 3 pitch guy which can be limiting out of the rotation, and a 23 year old college pick blowing the doors off low minors guys in short outings isn't going to turn too many heads.

https://www.prospects1500.com/top-50-lists/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects-2025/
 

Prielipp ended 2024 outside the top 20 for MLB, and ended 2024 as #17 for Fangraphs. He started 2025 as #13 for Prospects1500. 

There is no doubt a guy like Prielipp still has an enormous ceiling, but until he's pitching against high minors talent and going through the order more than once, it's impossible to truly grade his stuff. If Prielipp has a good spring and starts the year off hot in AA, I expect he'll garner a lot of attention, but expecting the kind of performance which would make him one of the best 13 arms for the MLB roster is too much of a leap for me.

He is their number 6 prospect and extremely high on him.  Priellip talk starts at 1:06:00.  

Priellips stuff is the best total package we have in the minors in my opinion.  If he is throwing 95-98 mph with his elite secondary pitches.   They are saying as he is,  a 50 FV,  but they have him at 45 because of injuries.  A healthy season where he continues to execute is what we need to see.  He has not put together a full season output since high school.   

You know a 95-98 mph fastball, with a plus plus slider that is breaking on 2 planes, and a change up is elite.  We don't need to see it against the top levels, he has already shown it at Alabama,  he showed it last year.  It will play.   All that is needed is health and consistency.  I am very optimistic on Priellip and have been for a while.  

[jorgenswest]

The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins?

It will be a long wait. Ragans second surgery was March of 2018. It was the second half of 2023 before he was effective again. Prielipp had surgery on July 18, 2023. If he needs Ragans path, it is unlikely the Twins can wait that long. 
 

 

[amjgt]

If he makes it through the health gauntlet to August as an innings-limited starting pitcher then I have ZERO interest in having him try something else (relief pitching) for the major league club the last month or two. 

Why would you take an incredible outcome (a healthy season) and introduce any chance of things going haywire for a relatively limited impact MLB role the last month or so? Not worth it. Take the 2025 win and continue his SP progression in 2026.

[amjgt]

Because I was curious, here is a list of all of the Lefty SP in MLB with a Fastball average velocity above 94 MPH.

So yeah, I'd do anything possible to keep him as a SP until it becomes abundantly clear his body just can't take it. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, amjgt said:

Because I was curious, here is a list of all of the Lefty SP in MLB with a Fastball average velocity above 94 MPH.

So yeah, I'd do anything possible to keep him as a SP until it becomes abundantly clear his body just can't take it. 

Interesting.  Thanks.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Just now, Linus said:

Interesting.  Thanks.

Linus so what did you disagree with my above post?  

[Linus]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Linus so what did you disagree with my above post?  

The idea that he doesn’t have to prove himself in the upper minors.  I’m excited about the guy but he has to prove himself against better competition before he sees the bigs.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

The idea that he doesn’t have to prove himself in the upper minors.  I’m excited about the guy but he has to prove himself against better competition before he sees the bigs.

"it's impossible to truly grade his stuff."  

That is what I was responding too.  The stuff as is there, you can grade an elite slider, you can grade a plus fastball, you can grade a + curve ball, and that he all throws it from the same tunnel,  yes you know exactly the type of player that he can be.     I said it will come down to consistency and health and ultimately execution.  To me he will play (if healthy), the question will come down to what is his ceiling.  A reliever, a back end arm,  a mid rotation arm or a #1 or #2 arm.     My point is that we know his stuff will play even at the highest levels,  that isn't something difficult to judge,  he just need to be healthy and continue to show it at the higher levels.  I think we are on the same page its why I was confused.  

[amjgt]

As a lefty with elite velocity and an incredible slider, his ceiling is #1 starter. It's just that the likelihood of that outcome is far less than the other options you listed.

Here is my percent chance outcome list:

#1 starter - 5% chance

#2 starter - 5% chance

Other SP - 20% chance

Elite RP - 25% chance

Useful lefty RP - 15% chance

Career wrecked because of injuries - 30% chance.

 

[Linus]

17 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

"it's impossible to truly grade his stuff."  

That is what I was responding too.  The stuff as is there, you can grade an elite slider, you can grade a plus fastball, you can grade a + curve ball, and that he all throws it from the same tunnel,  yes you know exactly the type of player that he can be.     I said it will come down to consistency and health and ultimately execution.  To me he will play (if healthy), the question will come down to what is his ceiling.  A reliever, a back end arm,  a mid rotation arm or a #1 or #2 arm.     My point is that we know his stuff will play even at the highest levels,  that isn't something difficult to judge,  he just need to be healthy and continue to show it at the higher levels.  I think we are on the same page its why I was confused.  

There is more to it than stuff.  He has to prove the ability to locate when facing better hitters and to compete against better hitters.  IMO that is important for his development.  You don’t agree with that which is fine.  We are both excited about his potential as it is truly a high ceiling.

[bean5302]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

...We don't need to see it against the top levels, he has already shown it at Alabama,  he showed it last year.  It will play.   All that is needed is health and consistency.  I am very optimistic on Priellip and have been for a while.  

The SEC in NCAA is probably equivalent to Rookie Ball or so.

There have been an incalculable number prospects who look great in the low minors in small sample sizes only to fall apart at higher levels, even in the Twins' system.

Jordan Balazovic was a sure-thing ace in A+ ball at age 20 for example. The potential ceiling started to show at AA, and it collapsed at AAA/MLB. Pitchers need to not only have great stuff, but they need to be able to throw it for strikes with some command. Balazovic did not have great stuff despite being unhittable and rocking a 12 K/9 with an outstanding 4.5 K/BB ratio at A+ ball while being 3 years younger than Prielipp.

[Linus]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The SEC in NCAA is probably equivalent to Rookie Ball or so.

There have been an incalculable number prospects who look great in the low minors in small sample sizes only to fall apart at higher levels, even in the Twins' system.

Jordan Balazovic was a sure-thing ace in A+ ball at age 20 for example. The potential ceiling started to show at AA, and it collapsed at AAA/MLB. Pitchers need to not only have great stuff, but they need to be able to throw it for strikes with some command. Balazovic did not have great stuff despite being unhittable and rocking a 12 K/9 with an outstanding 4.5 K/BB ratio at A+ ball while being 3 years younger than Prielipp.

Ive seen scouts say that top level D1 baseball is roughly equivalent to A ball or even A+ ball (high A doesn’t make sense to me). Who knows how accurate that is but certainly guys succeeding at high D1 are far more advanced than high school players.  I couldn’t agree more with the rest of your post.  It happens so frequently that it should be common knowledge.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Since he ended last year at 3.0 inning outings, I'd think he'd pick back up there for maybe April.
April 3.0 inning, 50 pitches max
May 4.0 inning, 60 pitches max
June 4.0 inning. 70 pitches max
July 5.0 inning. 75 pitches max
August 5.0 inning. 80 pitches max
September 6.0 inning. 85 pitches max
100 innings-ish total
 

My guess is he will be closer to 75-80 innings this year, 110-120 next year, and full go in 27, which would be a good process on deciding what to do with Ryan/Ober/Lopez in 26/27 And very similar to what Ragans went though. 80.2 (age 23), 130 (age 24), 127 (age 25), 186 (age 26) and 1 year younger.

Fingers crossed!

 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins?

It will be a long wait. Ragans second surgery was March of 2018. It was the second half of 2023 before he was effective again. Prielipp had surgery on July 18, 2023. If he needs Ragans path, it is unlikely the Twins can wait that long. 

When it comes to Prielipp many fans lose all sense of reality. All we have to do is get him ramped up enough to become a SP & next season he'll head the Twins rotation. IMO the priority is to keep him healthy & on the field, that could mean putting him in the BP & limit his innings. I hope that'll keep him healthy & the Twins could use him in the BP in the 2nd half. I think that'll make more sense than waiting around another 4 yrs. for him to become a top of the rotation SP if go by Ragan's example.

[ashbury]

Hoping for the best of course.  But they could draft 100 Connor Prielipps and only about 3 would really pan out in a top of the rotation way, in my estimation.

[jorgenswest]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

When it comes to Prielipp many fans lose all sense of reality. All we have to do is get him ramped up enough to become a SP & next season he'll head the Twins rotation. IMO the priority is to keep him healthy & on the field, that could mean putting him in the BP & limit his innings. I hope that'll keep him healthy & the Twins could use him in the BP in the 2nd half. I think that'll make more sense than waiting around another 4 yrs. for him to become a top of the rotation SP if go by Ragan's example.

I would not assume that the path to the majors is any quicker from the bullpen. It wasn’t in Ragans case. If he were having success as a lefty in the bullpen in 2023 there would have been no need to trade for Chapman.

I would have the goal of a healthy year. Maximizing those healthy innings will be give the best hope that he will be helpful to this organization down the road. I think the best way to accomplish that is the regular work of a starter in the minors gradually increasing the number of pitches. Once he puts a healthy season in the books they can plan for how he best fits in the majors.
 

[gman]

It may not be until 27, but I could see Prielipp as a regular in the rotation. He needs to face professional hitters to learn how to succeed in the majors.

[twinstalker]

I was hoping this was about Prielipp and not Canterino, who I think is on the edge of done.

Just the same, I think Prielipp's forever destiny is in relief.  A Ragan's outcome has to be incredibly rare, especially when you throw in the at least perceived caution of the Twins staff.  Add to that the dearth of lh relief for the Twins going forward.

[DocBauer]

I believe he could be lights out in the pen! But only turned 24yo in January. His stuff is just good to not still look at him as a SP. I agree with the basic framework that @bean5302 laid out, a slow ramp up of number of pitches thrown and innings. Basically, putting him on the Ober and Raya path of a buildup. I think you see how well he does, and how his arm and body respond. 

If he's healthy and doing well, there's probably a time during the season when you reign in his pitch count back in as to not over extend him. That might mean starting an inning out of the pen and going back down to 3 or 2 IP. That has the POSSIBILITY of him being a 1 IP difference maker late in the year for the Twins. But I'm not betting on it. I think the idea is ramp him up, stretch him out, and then maybe  back him down some with the intent of being ready to be ready for 2026 at age 25.

I know he's thrown very little, and he only tossed 23.1 innings in 2024, but they were impressive innings with tremendous stuff. I'm wondering if he doesn't just go straight to AA for this upcoming season.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The SEC in NCAA is probably equivalent to Rookie Ball or so.

There have been an incalculable number prospects who look great in the low minors in small sample sizes only to fall apart at higher levels, even in the Twins' system.

Jordan Balazovic was a sure-thing ace in A+ ball at age 20 for example. The potential ceiling started to show at AA, and it collapsed at AAA/MLB. Pitchers need to not only have great stuff, but they need to be able to throw it for strikes with some command. Balazovic did not have great stuff despite being unhittable and rocking a 12 K/9 with an outstanding 4.5 K/BB ratio at A+ ball while being 3 years younger than Prielipp.

I personally never thought Balazovics stuff was good enough.  A low 90's fastball,  with 2 other hard thrown breaking pitches,  that were all relatively in the zone is no where close to Priellips arsenal.   

So if we are going to look at limited data and do projection,  At high A ball Balazovic had ERA of 2.84 with SO/9 of 11.8.  That is very good.  But he was also inducing a lot of weak contact at that level.  As he rose up the levels, the weak contact became hard contact.   

Priellip, coming off of injuries and not pitching for several years,  had a 3.26 ERA and had a SO/9 of 14.9.   He went through 3 starts in a row, 9 innings 15 strikeouts to end the season.  

The biggest difference between the 2 even at this level, is Priellip has much more swing and miss off of his pitch arsenal.  

It is a SSS.   I understand that,  and he will have to prove it, and show he can remain healthy and that he can maintain his stuff as he moves up.  With someone like Balazovic who was 20 they were projecting his stuff would get better as well, it never did.  With Priellip,  you don't have to project, the stuff is there.   That is the difference between the 2 in my opinion.   

[madtowntwin]

I remember Connor's Draft Day back in 2022 having followed his career back to his HS days in Tomah, WI. Lanky would be an understatement as his body type was extremely "Whip-Like." But boy could he whip that ball to the plate. He chose Alabama for college and his talent and impact were quickly apparent. I truly believe that for some young players physique lags behind bountiful talent. His body trailed obvious gift. A few years and surgeries later, hopefully his body has drawn even and the operations have strengthened, stabilized, and healed. This was the floor we all feared on draft day. Now, hopefully, things will trend toward ceiling for this young man. Obviously a long way to go in this rugged trek toward ceiling, but I recall on draft day seeing serious similarity in terms of POTENTIAL to another MLB pitcher. One drafted in 2010 out of Florida Gulf Coast by our division rival White Sox. I know...That's legendary ceiling status, but having seen him throw in HS the similarity was there, and I wasn't the only one who saw it. The kid was as nice as he was gangly, and I wish him health and success....

BUT - Having said all that. The hidden and undiscussed nugget in all of this may be the blip about Soto. Charlie was taken in the following year's MLB Draft and is now 19 years old. Buried in this wonderful piece about Prielepp is the fact of Soto touching 100 mph from the mound. Talk about ceiling and scratching the surface...My "Dream Big" comparison for him would be a right handed Carsten Charles. I know, I know....

[HrbieFan]

Saw him pitch in HS at Tomah, talent is just unbelievable.  His action reminds of Chris Sale, even the clip above his action looks so easy and repeatable.  Hoping he can stay healthy and capitalize on his talent. Any time in the future on the big club is a bonus at this point