The Minnesota Twins Need to Trade a Left-Handed Hitting Outfielder Now

[Julian Bernick]

Anyone can be traded if the value is there, right? 

Beyond that, I'm in agreement with the 75/25 point above.  If everything is all platoon now per analytics, we should be able to get a RH guy from the farm to bring up to play LF without trading one of our few remaining promising hitters.  He won't be Tommy Pham, but he wont' cost Pham $$ and he won't slap guys over Fantasy Football either.

[Trov]

The problem with LH corner outfielders that are more bat than glove is that there are a ton available.  Which makes their value in trade almost nil.  Sure, we can want to trade one of them but what will either bring back is almost nothing.  Neither have shown that they are more than an average player overall.  Wallner most likely more upside due to his power, but he also strikes out a bit more.  Larnach has been better on defense but less pop at the plate.  Neither will fetch a ton at this point.  Trade if you want because they are doubled up in our line up, but do not expect much in return. 

[tony&rodney]

Wallner has quite a bit of value and I assure you that multiple teams would push forward some enticing offers to Falvey in order to acquire big Matt. Wallner can be streaky and look futile on occasions but he winds up with pretty consistent numbers for the last three years. If he gets close to 600 PA, expect an OPS near .900, 30+ HR, score about 90 runs, 100+ RBIs, and a BA from .260-280. If another team had Wallner he would play in 150-160 games. I'm expecting that this year. If the Twins are not going to use a pen to put him in the lineup, he should be traded. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins have never had a surplus of anything. They have never had a log jam. 

They have barely had a position of strength. 

Sometimes it appears they have a surplus of AAAA players they do not get a shot or much of a shot in the majors 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

Sometimes it appears they have a surplus of AAAA players they do not get a shot or much of a shot in the majors 

I don't care much for the term AAAA but Yeah... You are right. The Twins have demonstrated the willingness to keep running Christian Vazquez out there while players like Camargo are held back leaving us to label him AAAA. 

Sometimes people just list names regardless of production and health and say "Surplus". 

All teams should strive for surplus.

When they reach surplus level which they haven't reached. No worries about the distribution of playing time, because whoever is put in the lineup will be just dandy because of the surplus of options. .  

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't care much for the term AAAA but Yeah... You are right. The Twins have demonstrated the willingness to keep running Christian Vazquez out there while players like Camargo are held back leaving us to label him AAAA. 

Sometimes people just list names regardless of production and health and say "Surplus". 

All teams should strive for surplus.

When they reach surplus level which they haven't reached. No worries about the distribution of playing time, because whoever is put in the lineup will be just dandy because of the surplus of options. .  

Camargo -- I do not like AAAA either but Camargo is AA.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't care much for the term AAAA but Yeah... You are right. The Twins have demonstrated the willingness to keep running Christian Vazquez out there while players like Camargo are held back leaving us to label him AAAA. 

Sometimes people just list names regardless of production and health and say "Surplus". 

All teams should strive for surplus.

When they reach surplus level which they haven't reached. No worries about the distribution of playing time, because whoever is put in the lineup will be just dandy because of the surplus of options. .  

I should have stayed with  AAA purgatory but i went with the term used by many posters here for clarity. I promise to be more ambiguous next time 

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Wallner has quite a bit of value and I assure you that multiple teams would push forward some enticing offers to Falvey in order to acquire big Matt. Wallner can be streaky and look futile on occasions but he winds up with pretty consistent numbers for the last three years. If he gets close to 600 PA, expect an OPS near .900, 30+ HR, score about 90 runs, 100+ RBIs, and a BA from .260-280. If another team had Wallner he would play in 150-160 games. I'm expecting that this year. If the Twins are not going to use a pen to put him in the lineup, he should be traded. 

I wish we would just let them both play. If we would have just let Rooker play we wouldn't have this problem. It's time for both to get a full time shot. Let's see what we've got. We have plenty of RH power if we're healthy. 

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I wish we would just let them both play. If we would have just let Rooker play we wouldn't have this problem. It's time for both to get a full time shot. Let's see what we've got. We have plenty of RH power if we're healthy. 

I'm not looking back at Rooker. He is having a good run with the A's. Good for him. Rooker may have never worked out no matter what with the Twins. I do think Larnach and Wallner need plate appearances to show their worth. I agree with you, let us see what we got.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

I should have stayed with  AAA purgatory but i went with the term used by many posters here for clarity. I promise to be more ambiguous next time 

It is my understanding that a "4A player" is someone who dominates in the top minor leagues, but can't get it done in the majors well enough to hold a job. Of the players on the Twins who would fit this description, I would say Keirsey would fit, I don't think Camargo has nor has Martin, Lee or Helman. 

[stringer bell]

I haven't commented much about Rooker, but I will admit I was never a fan. He was and is a bat only player. Even more so than Jose Miranda, he needed to hit well above average to get a place in the major leagues and three teams didn't give him that chance--Minnesota, KC and SD. Oakland was willing to stick with him when he struggled, basically because they had no choice and he developed himself into an elite hitter, at least for now. 

IMHO, it shows the risk of taking on guys who are really one or two tool players. The bar is set high for hitting and since they can't help any other way, when they struggle the page gets turned. Sometimes it is too soon as with Rooker. 

[old nurse]

29 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It is my understanding that a "4A player" is someone who dominates in the top minor leagues, but can't get it done in the majors well enough to hold a job. Of the players on the Twins who would fit this description, I would say Keirsey would fit, I don't think Camargo has nor has Martin, Lee or Helman. 

Thanks for pointing out that I should have stuck with AAA purgatory where Williams and Sevarino reside. After this year probably Holland and Morales will reside there 

[Vanimal46]

16 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Or there will be catastrophic repercussions?

One might say it’s the most pivotal point in team history to do this 

[Craig Arko]

43 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

One might say it’s the most pivotal point in team history to do this 

We’re not talking about it enough.

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

We’re not talking about it enough.

It’s the most pivotal point in team history.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

We’re not talking about it enough.

There’s just no path to talk about this major X-factor

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Replacing Larnach with a RH'ed hitter via trade makes no sense because Rocco would PH for him in the second inning only to get burned in later innings.  Let the two LH'ers play every day and they will get better at hitting LH'ed pitching.

Rocco is far less rigid with right handed hitters. They get lots of at bats against right handed pitchers. Exhibit A, B and C are Kyle Farmer, Manny Margot and Donovan Solano, all brought in to be lefty killers who got many more at bats against right handers.

[terrydactyls]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

This is just preposterous! 70-75 % of ALL pitching is RH! And we want to fall deeper in to the trap of too much platooning?

Part of the young players not facing enough LHP is a trap already set. Wallner got more time against LHP in 2024 because Kepler was hurt. Platooning, to some degree, makes sense. I'd LOVE a decent, solid, RHOF who doesn't STINK against RHP to give Larnach and Wallner a break, and have them coming off the bench as needed. There's still a few guys waiting for jobs we might bring in cheap in the next couple of weeks. But trading Larnach because he's good, might be better yet, and move him BECAUSE he bats from the strong side is beyond ridiculous!

Between Rodriguez this season, and POSSIBLY Jenkins in 2026, I can see a move of Larnach. But not NOW.

BTW, I'm just sick and tired of the ongoing mantra that the Twins need a RHOF to play CF for when Buxton needs a day off, or is injured. WHY? Why do the Twins need a RH option when Buxton sits or is injured? Does the league suddenly throw nothing but LHSP against the Twins? Is there some bizarre TWIGHLIGHT ZONE scenario where only LHSP face the Twins?

OK, I have a certain angst in this situation, LOL. But if Keirsey finally gets a chance to be a ML player who can cover CF adequately, play the corner spots as well, and be a viable PR, what's wrong with him hitting LH? If Buck is out for 2 weeks, I'd rather have a LH hitting OF who plays good defense in his stead vs another Margot! We're still talking about 70-75% of all arms throwing from the RH side. Can we just STOP once and for all about the NEED for a RHOF to back up Buxton.

 

Just a thought, but how about trading Larnach for a half decent RHOF?  😇😇

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Rocco is far less rigid with right handed hitters. They get lots of at bats against right handed pitchers. Exhibit A, B and C are Kyle Farmer, Manny Margot and Donovan Solano, all brought in to be lefty killers who got many more at bats against right handers.

It's very hard for a right-handed batter to rise far in the minors without being at least playable versus righties.  The reverse is not true for left handed batters.

[Craig Arko]

33 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There’s just no path to talk about this major X-factor

I wonder if the headlines here are generated by LLM’s.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Julian Bernick said:

If everything is all platoon now per analytics

Pretty sure this is not what "analytics" is saying.  Pretty sure.

[PatPfund]

Look. Trade Wallner or Larnach to upgrade the team, sure. But the obsession about too much LH hitting is foolish. We don't need to ditch useful bats just because they hit LH and are "corner outfielders". (This just in; corner outfielders are only 2/9 of a lineup.)

Say we face a lefty; you can field a lineup with either catcher (or even Camargo), Miranda, Lee, Correa, Lewis, Castro/Martin, Buxton, and Wallner. 8 RH bats, one lefty (a REALLY powerful lefty). 

[h2oface]

The only team with a true surplus, is the Dodgers. And it doesn't look like that is gonna change this decade, or maybe longer.

[TopGunn#22]

I appreciate the article Matthew, but it just seems like you're way off in making your case.  I will allow that there is a certain degree of similarity in Larnach and Wallner.  They are both LH hitters, play a corner OF spot and hit with power (in the case of Wallner, a LOT of power).  

I don't disagree with the idea that the Twins could trade one of them to bring something back of real value.  I'm always interested in a trade that makes the team BETTER.  And I don't think you mean for the Twins to just give Larnach away either, but the teams you mentioned are not good trade partners.

You wrote this on Wednesday night.  I don't know why I'm finally seeing it on Friday morning, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you didn't know Profar had just signed with the Braves yesterday.  But if I was looking for a trade partner for Larnach I know the first team I would be calling.

We've just seen the news drop and articles written about the Twins and Padres having interest in making  a deal.  Christian Vasquez could be heading to the Padres and according to Puckett's Pond, the Twins are interested in RHP Dylan Cease.  THAT got my attention !!  And after commenting on this article I plan to read the "Dylan Cease Trade Rumor" on TD.  

What made me flinch regarding the trade for Cease was who else, other than Vasquez could be heading to the Padres.  Zebby Matthews and LUKE KEASCHALL.  Reading Keaschall's name made a sound like a stylus sliding across an album in my brain.  I don't want that kid traded under ANY circumstance.  He will be in a Twins uniform by the All Star break and I think he will be up to stay.

But you know what San Diego needs desperately after Profar signed with the Braves??  Someone to play LF.  ESPN's depth chart has the projected LF for the Padres listed as Tucupita Marcano, who was suspended from MLB baseball FOREVER for betting on 387 baseball games from July thru November in 2022.  The only other possibility is Oscar Mercado a 30 year old with a "thin resume."

BBTV's has Keachall's value listed as 23.0 and Larnach's listed as 22.6.  Zebby Matthew is listed at 16.0.  I only know this because I go there to see what some of the suggested trades are and make a note of a players value when I think it will come in handy sometime.  I don't know what Cease is valued at or their current catcher Luis Campusano but here would be my deal.

Trevor Larnach 22.6 and Christian Vasquez -4.1 for Dylan Cease.  Cease is in the final year of his contract, so he could very well be a one year rental for the Twins but he's a solid SP with real strikeout stuff.  He's 29 years old and went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA  and 224 K's last year.  He started 33 games and threw over 189 innings.  Lopez, Ryan, Cease, Ober.  That's is a Kicka$$ first 4. 

I still like Festa more than SWR for the #5 spot but a trade like I suggested makes the Twins BETTER.  One could always hope that Cease could be signed to an extension.  SP's like him usually are making $30 million per year.  Cease will pitch in 2025 for a salary of $13.75.  Moving Vasquez and Larnach in the deal is close to a net zero salary increase.

With new ownership on the near horizon for the Twins, how about making a BIG splash?  The Padres are looking to trim some payroll, so how about taking another $14 million off their payroll and adding Luis Arraez to the deal?  Add another $1 million for Luis Campusano.  The Twins could add Chris Paddack to the deal as well as Jose Miranda (16.2) or Eddie Julien (16.5).  

The New Trade:  Larnach (22.6) Vasquez -4.1, Paddack (?) and Miranda/Julien (16.5).  Total Value around 35.0 with Paddack an unknown (someone who pays for the right to use BBTV help me on this).   Twins get:  Cease $14 million, Arraez $14 million, Campusano $1 million.  Both Cease and Arraez are signed only thru 2025.  They are FA's in 2026.  

Total salary sent out approx. $19 million.  Total additional cost for the Twins $10 million.  To be a legit contender in 2025, the additional $10 million could be agreed upon between the Pohlad's and the Ishbia brothers.  

Twins lineup:  Arraez 1B  Lee 2B  Lewis 3B  Correa SS  Castro LF  Buxton CF  Wallner RF  DH-Rotating.  The Twins could accelerate the promotion of E-Rod and/or sign someone like Austin Hayes.  Keaschall will be up at some point.  Campusano splits catching with Jeffers.  Kiersey begins as 4th OF.  Perhaps Payton Eeles is part of the utility IF.

Rotation:  Lopez, Ryan, Cease, Ober, SWR/Festa.  BP led by Duran & Jax. 

I will mention this again:  Go to ESPN or CBS Sports or wherever you normally go to check a team's Depth Chart and see who the Padres have in their OF other than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. It's literally nobody.  They NEED Larnach.  They are looking to cut payroll and are willing to consider dealing Cease. 

Taking back Arraez (welcome back Luis!  Are you ready to win a 4th straight batting title??). in addition to Cease while sending San Diego Vasquez and Paddack (are the Padres ready for a reunion as well?) allows for shedding some significant payroll for both clubs.  Cease, Arraez, Vasquez and Paddack are all under contract for only the 2025 season.  No commitments beyond that.  Padres get a young hitter (Larnach) and another young hitter (Miranda/Julien). 

Twins get Cease and Arraez for one year, maybe longer and Campusano, a 26 year old catcher with some flaws but some potential.  I would prefer to deal Julien because unless he becomes a 1B he has no future with all the potential 2B the Twins have and it leaves Miranda to rotate between DH/1B/3B.  But I'd part with Miranda just for the chance to add Cease to the rotation.  

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

BBTV's has Keachall's value listed as 23.0 and Larnach's listed as 22.6.  Zebby Matthew is listed at 16.0.  I only know this because I go there to see what some of the suggested trades are and make a note of a players value when I think it will come in handy sometime.  I don't know what Cease is valued at or their current catcher Luis Campusano but here would be my deal.

BTV can be looked at for fun and to see how they value players. I look at it on occasion but do not subscribe. It shifts all the time. Royce Lewis was around 30 something in October but last i saw was in the mid to high 50s.

For those who have a minimal feel for clubs it is easier to put yourself in the shoes of both Preller and Falvey. San Diego wants to reduce payroll but still push for a playoff spot. The Twins are in the same position. These two teams don't match up very cleanly. The Padres will not trade Cease and have the money even. Larnach would be a good addition for the Padres. So would Julien potentially. In all cases though, San Diego will want either two pitchers with substantial upside (Charlee Soto, Dasan Hill) or much more likely a starter who has thrown MLB innings, Woods Richardson. Any deal that sends Vazquez increases the player cost if San Diego pays his salary. If the Twins include $6M with Vazquez the player cost is reduced. I'm guessing that the Padres continually ask for two of Festa, Matthews, Rodriguez, and Keaschall. Cease is really good but parting with any of those three would be foolish in my opinion, especially Keaschall or EmRod. I'm not sure a trade works with the Padres. My best guess/offer would be Larnach, Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis. If the Twins sent Vazquez, they also send $5M. All told that would add about $7M to the Twins payroll and reduce the Padres by about the same. However, despite ideas that the AAA players can fill the 2nd catching position, a trade of Vazquez puts us right back to the first discussions in October. Before the Twins unload a catcher there must be someone to fill the position. These would be tough negotiations. I'm very hopeful that the Twins do not send away any of Jenkins, Keaschall, Rodriguez, Festa, or Matthews.

[DJL44]

On 1/23/2025 at 7:02 AM, dxpavelka said:

Larnach, Wallner AND Kepler for two years.

LF, RF and DH. Where's the log-jam?

[TopGunn#22]

Or the deal could be expanded T&R to include someone like Arraez who the Padres are also heavily rumored to be interested in dealing, to shed the final year of his $14 million dollar contract.  If the deal was for Cease and Arraez that would bring $27,75 million in payroll to the Twins.  Sending Vasquez and Paddack, (along with Larnach) with the Padres taking all of that back nets the Padres a full $10 million dollar payroll cut and provides them with a starting LF, starting catcher and swing arm for the rotation and BP.

Jeferson Quero has a 22.7 BBTV.  Depending on what SWR's BBTV is I would deal him and whatever else it took to the Brewers for Quero.  He's blocked by All Star Willam Contreras as well as Gary Sanchez.  I think SWR and a little something else (depending on what SWR's value is) could net the Twins Quero. 

Giving up some major league talent, some minor league talent (not named Keaschall, Rodriguez or Festa) and taking on about $10 million in salary with new ownership coming on the near horizon, to add Dylan Cease to the rotation and Luis Arraez at the top of our order and playing 1B is reasonable and worth it to expect for the 2025 season.

What comes in 2026 is completely unknown.  But this much IS known.  E-Rod, Keaschall and Jenkins will all be one year further in their development as will Festa, Matthews, Lee, Lewis, Miranda and Wallner.  The Twins will have a better idea of what they have in Eeles, Helman and Kiersey.  

If I'm the Falvey/Zoll FO I'm pretty sure the expectation of the new owners is to make the post season.  It would also be reasonable to expect some kind of "acceptable" showing in the post season (in other words, something other than a 1st round sweep elimination).  

I have the chance to add an Ace to the rotation and bring a fan favorite back to Minnesota who would fill the hole at 1B, and it might COST $10 million in additional 2025 payroll, some MLB players who I can afford to deal, and a minor leaguer NOT named Jenkins, E-Rod or Keaschall.  I am getting this DONE.  The Pohlad's and Ishbia's are certainly in communication about any deals that would add payroll for 2025, but for all we hold sacred...Make this trade.  (once I know what SWR's value is of course) because if I deal Vasquez, while I don't think doom hovers over the 2025 the season over a backup catcher, I still want to fill that hole adequately.  

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

LF, RF and DH. Where's the log-jam?

Log jam is at "guys who struggle to hit left handed pitching:"

[Original_JB]

Austin Hays went for 1yr/$5M. RH, can cover all 3 OF spots, bats reasonably well against L&R pitching.....