Dan Hayes Ownership update

[Carneal&Gordon]

 

[SF Twins Fan]

Very exciting news!!

[Cory Engelhardt]

Optimism is good to have 

[Schmoeman5]

Robust market of potential buyers. WHO? In place by opening day. Don't the majority of owners need to approve? And isn't it by 80% or is it just by more than 50%. It is good news if its true.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Robust market of potential buyers. WHO? In place by opening day. Don't the majority of owners need to approve? And isn't it by 80% or is it just by more than 50%. It is good news if its true.

75%

[nicksaviking]

This sounds suspicious. Don't these things usually take a year or more?

Or is this like when someone leaks that dozens of clubs are calling about Brian Duensing hoping you get one club to bite?

[Carneal&Gordon]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

This sounds suspicious. Don't these things usually take a year or more?

Or is this like when someone leaks that dozens of clubs are calling about Brian Duensing hoping you get one club to bite?

My interpretation is, at minimum the Pohlads will be selling, now the only question is to whom.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This sounds suspicious. Don't these things usually take a year or more?

Or is this like when someone leaks that dozens of clubs are calling about Brian Duensing hoping you get one club to bite?

Baltimore was said to be listening to offers to sell around January 1 of 2024. The sale was announced end of March 2024. That turnaround was only about 3 months give or take

[T.O.]

46 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Baltimore was said to be listening to offers to sell around January 1 of 2024. The sale was announced end of March 2024. That turnaround was only about 3 months give or take

Since they are the Orioles time flew by?

Maybe could happen for Twins.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Robust market of potential buyers. WHO? In place by opening day. Don't the majority of owners need to approve? And isn't it by 80% or is it just by more than 50%. It is good news if its true.

Everyone involved was likely already on the pre-approved MLB list just waiting for something to come available.  That vote is probably a formality at this point.

These things can drag or close quickly.  Things that make it go fast are a motivated seller (check) books in order (we think check) and a buyer willing to overlook rounding errors (maybe).  It can close in weeks if it all comes together.  All the bug stuff like a stadium is in order.

Falvey late off season powder go bang.

[ashbury]

23 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Falvey late off season powder go bang.

A completed sale by Opening Day, as speculated, still means no major moves until the ink is dry.

Trade deadline, though?  Hmmm...

[mnfireman]

Best. News. Ever....(Since 1984 anyways...)

[mnfireman]

Pretty sure if the $$$ is locked in, so are the other owners, $$$ talks,,,

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Best. News. Ever....(Since 1984 anyways...)

There was some pretty good TC news in 1991.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

There was some pretty good TC news in 1991.

And '87, but you know what I mean...

[FilthyMogwai]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Best. News. Ever....(Since 1984 anyways...)

Yeah, wish there was better news than this, especially in '87 and '91.  What bummers of seasons.

[CRF]

Can't happen soon enough.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

A completed sale by Opening Day, as speculated, still means no major moves until the ink is dry.

Trade deadline, though?  Hmmm...

It's not impossible a special dispensation can be made due to critical timing specific to the business for a shared risk one time spend.

I'm reaching, but not impossible.  If it's this close, it does mean any random 130m number is out the window.

It's almost certain things are basically frozen if it's actually this close, including speculation of self-imposed (hur-dur) cuts.

Falvey's dialing finger is probably twitching though.

[LewFordLives]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Baltimore was said to be listening to offers to sell around January 1 of 2024. The sale was announced end of March 2024. That turnaround was only about 3 months give or take

There didn't need to be much vetting of Rubenstein. Everyone knew the check would clear.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

There didn't need to be much vetting of Rubenstein. Everyone knew the check would clear.

I get the feeling that could be the same with the Ishbia’s

[Vanimal46]

Obviously the Mike Ford signing changed everything and now multiple suitors are pursuing the Twins. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

12 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Falvey late off season powder go bang.

You and I have discussed this elsewhere, but if Derek Falvey needs a high payroll blank check to put together a competitive team (and by my reading, it appears he does), then the new owners might as well bring in their own baseball guys to run the team.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You and I have discussed this elsewhere, but if Derek Falvey needs a high payroll blank check to put together a competitive team (and by my reading, it appears he does), then the new owners might as well bring in their own baseball guys to run the team.

I would suspect new owners will more than likely bring in a new person by at least year two.

But I don't think the issue is that Falvey needs a high payroll blank check, the issue is that he was given a high(ish) payroll two years ago which he used to sign three big, long-term contracts (as one obviously would). Then the next year was told to go improve the team with negative dollars.

[SF Twins Fan]

22 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You and I have discussed this elsewhere, but if Derek Falvey needs a high payroll blank check to put together a competitive team (and by my reading, it appears he does), then the new owners might as well bring in their own baseball guys to run the team.

It has nothing to do with needing a high payroll blank check to properly run a team.  What shouldn't happen, and did happen, was ownership telling Falvey to decrease payroll by $30 million the season after he signs a couple of larger deals.

Requiring the front office to significantly decrease payroll right after signing those large contracts hamstrung the front office.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You and I have discussed this elsewhere, but if Derek Falvey needs a high payroll blank check to put together a competitive team (and by my reading, it appears he does), then the new owners might as well bring in their own baseball guys to run the team.

What @SF Twins Fan said.  Budget stability is more important than a high budget.

If the new buyer is the Ishbas, I would expect Falvey to be safe.  Listening to Justin in some podcasts he only buys businesses that he believes in the management team and has good bones in need of resources.  The Twins would seem to fit that model.  

I don’t think in any way that Falvey needs a blank check to succeed, but if he didn’t have to be dead nuts perfect all the time we would see the most effective Falvey.  

Having to allegedly worry about 10m and 7m contracts for players we think can help the team should not be an item he wastes bandwidth on.  I’d be willing to bet he doesn’t mind paying either player that salary for their contributions-just check replacement cost.  Just make the proper baseball decisions-some will fail spectacularly. 

All I hope for is that a new owner frees Falvey up financially to make good mistakes. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That is quite an increase from 2021 to 2022. Falvey would have been informed about payroll right-sizing again eventually. 

• 2021: $121 million (17th)
• 2022: $150 million (15th)
• 2023: $156 million (16th)
• 2024: $129 million (19th)

The sexiest thing in the world for the Pohlads would have been for Falvey to run bottom half payrolls and be consistently competitive, like Cleveland is. I can understand wanting to sell the team and cashing out, rather than trying to build the organization back up again. Maybe the new owners will juice payrolls back up—they probably will. 

[Jocko87]

My core contention is that they intended to step up in class, then the rest of the family realized how much that actually cost.  When the rest of the businesses are likely flat at best, it’s a tough sell to multiple family members who are indifferent to baseball. 

[bean5302]

Falvey hasn't been successful as a GM if the mark of success is pursuing a championship. 23% of teams in baseball have been to a World Series since Falvey took over, and 33% have been to a league championship game.

The Twins are not one of those franchises despite Falvey inheriting essentially a playoff team with a very strong core. He was given a superior budget for the division, a superior core, a huge budget for overhauling the team's development, excellent facilities which had been freshly remodeled, and he produced bupkis (for all those unfamiliar with that term, it means goat poop).

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey hasn't been successful as a GM if the mark of success is pursuing a championship. 23% of teams in baseball have been to a World Series since Falvey took over, and 33% have been to a league championship game.

The Twins are not one of those franchises despite Falvey inheriting essentially a playoff team with a very strong core. He was given a superior budget for the division, a superior core, a huge budget for overhauling the team's development, excellent facilities which had been freshly remodeled, and he produced bupkis (for all those unfamiliar with that term, it means goat poop).

The 59 win core?  With an antiquated disaster of a player development group?

Or the current core, which he built, with the overhauled player development department, which he overhauled, with the budget he demanded and spent every cent of?  Demanding so much budget he made the owners realize they could no longer afford to stay in the business.  Should be damn near Minnesota royalty, if I'm honest. 

For all the credit the Vikings get and deserve for a competitive rebuild, Falvey should get just as much credit.  He and Levine re-built the whole damn thing without ever actually blowing it up.  He owns it now and you should be buying stock while you still can.

Being a contrarian can only go so far as a shtick.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

The 59 win core?  With an antiquated disaster of a player development group?

Or the current core, which he built, with the overhauled player development department, which he overhauled, with the budget he demanded and spent every cent of?  Demanding so much budget he made the owners realize they could no longer afford to stay in the business.  Should be damn near Minnesota royalty, if I'm honest. 

For all the credit the Vikings get and deserve for a competitive rebuild, Falvey should get just as much credit.  He and Levine re-built the whole damn thing without ever actually blowing it up.  He owns it now and you should be buying stock while you still can.

Being a contrarian can only go so far as a shtick.

What's this "core" Falvey built?

Here's the core Falvey inherited.
2009 MVP, 6x All Star and HoF'er Joe Mauer with 2 years of team control
2021 All Star Eduardo Escobar with 2 years of team control
2008, 2017 All Star Ervin Santana with 2 years of team control
2015 All Star Brian Dozier with 3 years of team control
2021 All Star Kyle Gibson with 3 years of team control
2017 All Star Miguel Sano with 4 years of team control
2022 All Star Byron Buxton with 5 years of team control
2019 All Star Jorge Polanco with 6 years of team control
2018-2019 All Star Jose Berrios with 6 years of team control
2021 All Star Taylor Rogers with 6 years of team control
2022-2024 All Star Luis Arraez with 6 years of team control

Seriously... you'd think Falvey inherited a team of garbage the way you talk.
1B - Mauer
2B - Dozier
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
LF - Rosario
CF - Buxton
RF - Kepler
Util - Escobar
SP1 - Santana
SP2 - Gibson
SP3 - Berrios

8 players with multiple years of team control produced more value than any player on the Twins that Falvey has ever developed in his tenure. EVER. Because Falvey has never seen one of his drafted/signed/developed prospects ever produce a single 3 WAR season.