Are the Twins Getting Ready to Trade Pitching for Hitting?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I do think this is possible, but I think at the end of the day if they trade pitching, it will be something outside of the big 3 in the rotation.  Certainly they have many “almost ready/just ready” starters and a selection from that group could be traded.  I’m also on board with trading Duran (even though his numbers weren’t as good as Jax last year, I think he still has more value — just because of mystique).  

The difficulty I’m having is coming up with a better catcher situation.  They will probably need to pay (in $$ or prospects) to get rid of Vasquez and even though we don’t love him, he is a pretty viable second catcher, albeit an overpaid one.  If they trade Vasquez, they still need to sign a catcher and there isn’t much out there to be had that’s very good.  Perhaps a trade for a youngster from the Dodgers or Brewers could happen, but catchers are hard to come by.  Jeffers would bring much more in return, but again, he needs to be replaced, and that’s not very easily done.  

I’m curious what value some of the infielders have.  Would trading Julien, Lee, or Castro bring back a similar player who happens to profile as more of a first baseman?  If you could pull a trade like that for a player who blossoms at the position, it would be a major win.  In the outfield, while I would love a RH bat, I’m very comfortable with a Wallner-Buxton-Larnach outfield, at least offensively.  

Do you think that they are trying to keep Castro (good for baseball reasons) or trade him (good for budget reasons)?  I can’t decide which way they are leaning at this point.  In some ways, he is maybe more valuable to the Twins and their style of lineup building than most other teams.  

At the end of the day, I’m certainly glad I’m not in charge.  There are tough questions without easy answers out there.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

The “impact” bats haven’t been impactful. The roster is built around Buxton, Correa, and Lewis. All three weren’t on the field enough to carry the team to the playoffs and I have serious questions whether Lewis is a legitimate impact bat after watching the last two months of last season. His defense is not good either, so it’s not clear where his future position is going to be. Could be DH if he can hit. 
I have hope that Buxton has actually turned a corner and will play more games than last season. I don’t think the outlook is as bright for Correa. Is there really a cure for plantar fasciitis? I’ve heard it takes time, more than an offseason. For an athlete, PF could be recurring problem. If so, that is a roster problem the Twins may not recover from. He may have to sit out a season or more to get off his feet to fully heal. The injury problems with their core players and Lewis’s ability to hit is their real problem. They may be headed for a total rebuild if these three don’t turn a corner this season and carry the team. 

I personally don’t think that we can count on Lewis as a core piece until he has a real season of baseball where he hits, fields, and mostly avoids injuries.  He’s got lots of “potential” that has been flashed, but not enough of it has manifested itself on the playing field.  I completely agree on Buxton.  I’m actually more optimistic on him than I have been for years.  He was mostly good last year and I would actually set the over/under on games played at about 125.  A healthy Buxton is definitely a core player.  

I’m not as concerned about Correa’s PF.  It is unquestionably a “you never know when” kind of condition, but he had it on the other foot this year so it wasn’t a recurrence of the first condition. As a PF sufferer myself, it was horrible (and I had it on both feet) and I spent about a year dealing with it.  But, when it was gone it was gone and nothing has happened since.  I will admit to being very cognizant of any foot pain that I may have, panicky that it could be the dreaded condition.  Correa likely has much better health care (or at least more urgently and tightly focused) on this front than I did, so I think he will be fine.  

[1985Fan]

Could Paddack and Castro get Diaz from Tampa? They need to trim payroll and are always dealing players nearing FA. This gives them a starter to begin the season until their big guns are ready. Adding Castro will hopefully seal the deal. They also have a backup catcher in Rortvedt that could be included to free up moving Vasquez and his salary. Diaz could fill RH bat at DH and some 1B. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Twins are one year removed from winning a play-off series and being competitive with the team that made it to the World Series. While I'm not optimistic about next year, the suggestion that they're never competitive is myopic.

If we're being completely honest, the Twins didn't really compete in that series. They lost both games at home, scoring only 3 runs. And that was only the division series.

I'm really bored of fans propping up that the Twins won what equates to a play-in series more than an actual playoff series. Woo hoo, they won two games at home against another mediocre team. Congratulations. 

The Twins have only once in the last 33 years competed in the LCS. The Timberwolves are one of the worst franchises in all of professional sports history and even they have contended more than that. 

Being a contender requires more than just winning a bad division. 

[rdehring]

Interesting, Nick.

But I don't see trading either happen until July.  Why?  The Twins still don't know for certain what Festa, Matthews, etc., will be.  By July they should know which of their top prospects are for real and if any of those young bats are hitting like they should (and didn't in September).

I see some minor fine tuning this winter, then a bigger move come July.

[South Dakota Tom]

I believe if the Twins do trade pitching, it might come from attaching one of the minor-league arms to existing contracts to get back a league-ready position player.  That means depleting the Soto, Raya, Prielipp, Morris, Culpepper pipeline in some form. 

I'm thinking of someone like Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers - a package around Duran and one of the above pitchers might be in the ballpark.  Packaging a Tanner Schobel or Brandon Winokur with Vazquez for salary relief, sign a RH 1b/corner who is in the $4-6M range on a one-year deal, Paddack for a flyer or reliever, and you haven't emptied the tank but still brought the budget back to that seemingly-written-in-Sharpie $130M figure.

[NYCTK]

50 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We had a very competitive core that was very successful in '23. In '24 we were creative & tinkered with the core, traded needed players to afford players we didn't need. Where did that get us? Now they want to be more creative & disrupt more the core & bring in more outside players to fill positions that our own in-house players can do. We need a strong rotation, keep the core. Why do we want to weaken it? We need to be strong up the middle: Buxton & Keirsey at CF. Correa at SS, Lewis at 2B & Vazquez & Jeffers at catcher. We have been very fortunate at catcher that both Vazquez & Jeffers remain healthy because we have nobody who can cover them. If we eliminate Julien at 2B we'll become much better defensively. The right corners we have become more offensive. We have very good support group & people off the bench with Emma & Keaschall ready to be called up sometime during the season.

IMO we need to stop being creative & make minor trades to fill our holes to supplement our core. Trade away our fat to make budget.

This entire offseason is an exercise of futility. A tentative front office tinkering with a mediocre (at best) roster in hopes everyone outperforms expectations and they can somehow squeek into a wild card spot to placate an understandably dwindling fan base. 

Last trade deadline is emblematic of this organization. Directionless. No idea what they should do or how to improve their team in the current day or future. 

[NYCTK]

57 minutes ago, arby58 said:

It's becoming clear that baseball needs to do something ala the NBA, where there isn't a salary cap, but there are limitations on teams (and not just a luxury tax) that go over certain player salary thresholds.

Hard no to a salary cap. Increase revenue sharing. Hell, even sharing 100% of media contracts seems arguably beneficial. Increase luxury taxes, sure why not? 

But salary caps do nothing but help the billionaires. Restricting the earning power of the labor is never something I'll support. Even if we're talking about millionaires. 

[TopGunn#22]

To me, the strength of the Twins in 2025 will be their starting rotation, assuming Ryan comes back healthy and Lopez and Ober remain healthy.  If Lopez, Ryan and Ober all throw 170 innings or more it means they are healthy and effective.  Stable and effective starting rotations are the foundation for winning baseball.  

That said, there is one Wild Card that hasn't been mentioned in the comments that could possibly influence a trade of one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober for an offensive player like Jarren Duran.  That would be winning the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes.  I had mentioned in an earlier post that the Twins along with a handful of other teams have the most International Pool cash...$7.555 million.

The agent for Sasaki just mentioned AGAIN, that Sasaki may be more interested in a "soft landing."  What he means by that is a small-mid market team that doesn't have a constant and oppressive media situation.  The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Giants and Red Sox, as well as the Cubs would normally be considered the presumptive destination.  That is now completely up in the air.

Several of us have commented on TD that even though Sasaki won't command the $50 million dollar posting fee and $300 million dollar contract, he'll end up with the Dodgers for the endorsement money he could make on the side.  That may be true, but I also commented that the Japanese people, coming from an Island nation LOVE to fish.  Minnesota has over 10,000 lakes (actually, over 15,000) many of them in and surrounding the metro area.  I say spend every penny of our $7.555 International Pool money AND gift Sasaki with a tricked out fishing boat with a series of fishing guides in the metro area on retainer by the Twins to show Sasaki around the lakes and teach him where the hot spots are for whatever he wants to fish for.  Sasaki may decide he loves it here in Minnesota.

If the Twins somehow won the Sasaki sweepstakes you could roll with a Lopez, Sasaki, Ryan, Ober and SWR/Festa rotation.  You could even put Jax in the #5 spot.  THAT would probably be the deepest and best rotation the Twins have ever had.  If you had a rotation like that, you could be in every ballgame all season long.

OR...You could trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober to let's just say, the Red Sox for 28 year old Jarren Duran.  He would become the everyday CF and lead off and Buxton would move to LF.  Larnach becomes the DH.  Duran had a WAR of 8.7 last year.  I do not think it was a career year.  He's capable of much of the same production for at least the next 5 years.  He does NOT need to be platooned.  He had 671 AB's and 735 plate appearances last year.  This kid PLAYS.  

MANY teams are desperate for SP.  Look at the prices for mid-rotation guys like Severino, Boyd and Montas !!  Someone like Ober or Ryan could bring a LOT on the trade market.  Someone like Lopez in a package with Jhoan Duran could bring back Jarren Duran AND Triston Casas. 

How would a rotation of Ryan, Sasaki, Ober, SWR and Festa (with Jax closing) look with a lineup that would have Casas at 1B, Lewis at 2B, Correa at SS, Lee at 3B, Buxton in LF, Jarren Duran in CF, Wallner in RF, Jeffers at C and Larnach at DH.  And this would essentially be the lineup for the near future with Em-Rod, Keaschall and Walker Jenkins on the way and Matthews/Morris/Prielipp on the way.  

You could have a contender for the short and long term.  

I agree that for the Twins to truly be a contender for the division and to make deep runs in the playoffs that Correa, Buxton and Lewis need to be more consistently healthy and productive.  But you add the bats of Jarren Duran and Casas to the lineup and missing Buxton or Correa for 50 games is a lot easier to take.

I'm not advocating that we trade Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  Especially with the COST for SP and the VALUE those 3 currently represent for the Twins.  But winning the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes is going to benefit one major league team immensely, and it could open up a LOT of interesting possibilities for the Twins...no matter who owns them.  

[dohman]

nope. pitching is the name of the game and we finally have some, and probably not enough as pitchers tend to go down to injury.

[1985Fan]

24 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Hard no to a salary cap. Increase revenue sharing. Hell, even sharing 100% of media contracts seems arguably beneficial. Increase luxury taxes, sure why not? 

But salary caps do nothing but help the billionaires. Restricting the earning power of the labor is never something I'll support. Even if we're talking about millionaires. 

There needs to be some kind of salary cap to bring competitive balance to the sport. It’s not about limiting salaries. It is not even close to parity which is what the NBA and NFL have. Competitive balance is a requirement for the long term health of the sport. It’s obvious things are not good when most teams are cutting back and only LA, NYY, NYM, and Boston are adding payroll. Current situation is not healthy or sustainable. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Twins are one year removed from winning a play-off series and being competitive with the team that made it to the World Series. While I'm not optimistic about next year, the suggestion that they're never competitive is myopic.

If you follow me at all, you'll know that I'm very pro '23 core that did so well in the postseason that easily could be competitive with minor trades here & there to fill the holes this & last season & very much against Falvey's creativity of subtracting from the core, creating more holes while not filling prior holes & adding where we don't need it. I never said that they're never competitive, there are times when things fall into their laps but I don't count on them doing it independently on their own. Yet I remain hopeful every year that something could fall into their laps (Roki Sasaki) despite their bunglings.

[gman]

I wouldn't trade pitching for hitting. We saw how fast the season went downhill after Ryan was injured and they only had Lopez and Ober as reliable starters. Imagine starting the season without one of the big three.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Competitive balance is a requirement for the long term health of the sport.

No it's not. European soccer leagues are the least fair leagues in history and they're also very healthy. 

Like I said, I'm all for increasing some revenue sharing and taxing excessive payrolls. But hell no to a salary cap. And the MLBPA is in agreement. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Maybe they can glom onto a deal (similar with Mookie going to the Dodgers where we sent Graterol and got back Maeda and Camargo) for one of the teams that are looking to do something after missing out on Soto.

For example, maybe if the Cubs make a move to get Kyle Tucker, maybe we get involved as a 3rd team to get Isaac Paredes? 

I do think that when being creative, they should be open to lots of ideas.

[Heiny]

None of our top 4 SP's please.  I could see a package of Vasquez, Paddack, Duran and one of the young pitchers(Raya, Priellipp, Morris, Culpepper, or Lewis) could bring back a good young catcher and RH outfield bat. Maybe even toss in Schobel if need be.

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

...Roki Sasaki sweepstakes...

I asked you this elsewhere. What possible reason would Sasaki have for signing with the Twins vs. 29 other suitors?

The Twins bring a lame duck owner/front office/coaching/manager. Small endorsement market. History of poor treatment of other KBO/Japanese players. A team which has missed the playoffs 3/4 recent years competing against 2 rising teams who did make the playoffs last year. I'm sure the Twins will go all in on recruiting him, but the Twins are going to be eliminated almost immediately.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Twins are one year removed from winning a play-off series and being competitive with the team that made it to the World Series. While I'm not optimistic about next year, the suggestion that they're never competitive is myopic.

And in the other years years they were 3rd, 4th and 5th in the division. On top of that is the only playoff series this FO has won.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

I believe that Boston would trade Duran for Lopez if they miss out on Burnes because they could move Abreu to center and slot Roman Anthony in left. 5 years of Duran in center, moving Buxton to left and Larnach to DH vs. 3 years of Lopez while saving 17 million while painful, is adding a very good right handed bat and extending Buxton's ability to stay on the field.

Duran bats left-handed. Where Duran would really help is being a buddy to the pitchers turning those fly ball base hits into outs.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Heiny said:

None of our top 4 SP's please.  I could see a package of Vasquez, Paddack, Duran and one of the young pitchers(Raya, Priellipp, Morris, Culpepper, or Lewis) could bring back a good young catcher and RH outfield bat. Maybe even toss in Schobel if need be.

It is difficult to ascertain how teams value their catchers. Few people thought that Boston would give up Teel but they chose to keep Anthony (OF), Mayer (SS), and Campbell (IF/OF) above Teel.

Milwaukee has less need of pitching today than yesterday but perhaps Brooks Lee for Jeferson Quero works for them. Quero is a little scary coming off of shoulder surgery but his defense is top shelf and the Twins need a catcher .... eventually.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

Could Paddack and Castro get Diaz from Tampa? They need to trim payroll

You answered your own question. Tampa Bay would want prospects or someone pre-arb. They will not be interested in Paddack or Castro.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins should not trade any of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Festa, SWR, Matthews, Morris, or Raya unless the return value is obviously substantial. There are MLB teams crying for pitchers.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think a 22 pitcher and 18 hitter mix is out of the norm. The current 22:16 mix might simply foreshadow that two bats will be added.

[D.C Twins]

Kudos to TD for their tireless efforts to make it seem like anything of real consequence is going to happen this offseason! 

(narrator voice) it will not...

[D.C Twins]

12 hours ago, miracleb said:

Not going to happen.  Also, the guys mentioned are "cheap."  That isn't what this front office is going to get rid of.....in fact.....they are LOOKING for it!   :-)

This...this....aaaaaaaaaaaaand.......THIS!

[D.C Twins]

[Otwins]

They are closer to going the other way. Move Jax to the rotation and add relief pitching. Try to win with pitching and defense. 

 

 

[terrydactyls]

12 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Hard no to a salary cap. Increase revenue sharing. Hell, even sharing 100% of media contracts seems arguably beneficial. Increase luxury taxes, sure why not? 

But salary caps do nothing but help the billionaires. Restricting the earning power of the labor is never something I'll support. Even if we're talking about millionaires. 

You tell 'em!!!!  Who cares if bleacher seats cost $200?

[NYCTK]

41 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

You tell 'em!!!!  Who cares if bleacher seats cost $200?

If the owners do that, they deserve the fate that comes to their team. Quit acting like it's the workers fault that the product is expensive. You aren't part of the ruling class, quit simping for them. 

[terrydactyls]

25 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

If the owners do that, they deserve the fate that comes to their team. Quit acting like it's the workers fault that the product is expensive. You aren't part of the ruling class, quit simping for them. 

As a huge fan of union labor, I have to say quit being a shill for Karl Marx.  Both sides are to blame.  There is plenty of greed to go around.