The Twins' Next Carlos Santana Could Be Free Agent Mark Canha

[Eric Blonigen]

The 2025 Minnesota Twins have a few clear prospective needs: a right-handed corner outfielder; a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana; and a veteran leader to help Carlos Correa mentor the many young players on the team. One free agent might do all that and more.

Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sport

The 2025 Twins figure to be a little bit unusual, in that there aren't huge holes on the roster, but there's also little (or no) money to address the minor gaps that do exist. The front office will likely need to be creative, and set their sights lower than the big splash moves they have made in recent offseasons. A player like Mark Canha, while not a big name, could absolutely provide a lot of value both on and off the field, and would fit the team dynamic nicely, as well.

What does Canha bring to the table?
Mark Canha does a few things really well. He draws a ton of walks (and gets hit by pitches a ton), is clutch, and is reportedly a great clubhouse presence.

Getting on base
If you have seen Moneyball, you probably remember Billy Beane’s refrain to explain why he liked the players he targeted: "he gets on base." One of Mark Canha’s biggest strengths is just that: he gets on base. A lot. From 2020 through 2023, his OBP is 32nd in baseball. It's not a coincidence that, a decade ago, he got his break by being picked in the Rule 5 Draft and traded for by the A's. Adding an on-base machine to the lineup would absolutely lead to scoring more runs.

Getting Plunked
Dating back to 2018, Canha has gotten hit by pitches 123 times. Only Anthony Rizzo has gotten plunked more over that span. Back in 2023, Rocco Baldelli talked about Matt Wallner having cement bones due to his ability to get hit over and over and be none the worse for wear. In 2024, Willi Castro took the brunt of the painful free bases. Were the Twins to sign Canha, they would have four of the 20 most frequently hit batters in baseball. That’s just wild, but it’s a way to score runs. Maybe the Twins can turn that into the next market inefficiency.

Defense and flexibility
Canha is an acceptable defender, roughly average last season in left field, right field, and at first base. He’s not going to win a Gold Glove, but he’s not a butcher and will make the plays he’s supposed to make. His (slight) defensive flexibility would give the opportunity to be the primary first baseman, but to spell Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in the corners against tough lefties.

Clutch hitting
Canha has been clutch throughout his career, with an .862 OPS in high-leverage spots, compared with .732 in medium-leverage situations and .768 in low leverage. Clutch hitting is not really a skill, nor is it particularly predictive. But, when a guy is clutch year after year, as Canha has been? He might just be an outlier. And, as it turns out, the Twins would benefit greatly from some clutch hitting; the 2024 team was historically bad when it mattered most down the stretch.

Clubhouse presence and mentoring
With the Tigers in 2024, teammates Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, and Colt Keith all sang the praises of Canha. They spoke to his preparation, care, and demeanor. Greene said “I’ve watched him do his early work and his attention to detail in the cage is really, really good. He is locked in. He’s trying to be perfect in the cage.” Setting that example for some of the younger players could be invaluable for their growth. While with the San Francisco Giants, Manager Bob Melvin said “He’s a pretty tenacious player. He’s the kind of guy you don’t particularly care for on the other side, and you love him when he’s on your team.” Canha also maintains an Instagram account centered on his explorations of local food in big-league cities. He's one of the most likable players in baseball.

 

Mark Canha (@bigleaguefoodie) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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3,957 likes, 36 comments - bigleaguefoodie on November 19, 2024: "Amazing experience at @lazozzona in Scottsdale last night! Chef @richardblais and his team rolled out the red carpet...

The Concerns
Canha had a down season in 2024, as you can see from the Baseball Savant page above. All that blue represents a big step back compared to the few years before it. Over his decade-long career, Canha has virtually identical platoon splits, but 2024 was an outlier for him there, too. His OPS against righties was .118 lower than lefties. He barreled the ball at a career-low rate, and had a nasty habit of topping pitches, but it’s probably safer to attribute that to a lingering hip injury that he attempted to play through, rather than to a significant and irreversible decline. That said, 2025 will be Canha’s age-36 season, and the end comes quickly for some players.

Canha also doesn’t have a ton of home run power, probably slotting in at between 10-15 across a full, healthy season. With other sluggers on the team, that’s not a dealbreaker, as his approach could actually provide more balance than the current lineup does. Aside from those things, there’s not a ton to dislike.

So, what would it take to sign him? It’s tough to nail down. He’s coming off a two-year, $26.5 million deal. With the down year, he was worth 0.5 bWAR and 1 fWAR, putting his value at somewhere between $4-8 million. A year older, and certainly in the decline phase, it’s possible he could sign for as little as $3 million to prove his health and capability, with the intention of signing for a little more in 2026. I could also see a scenario where he and his agent hold out for something closer to $10 million. In that case, he’s less likely to fit into the budget, but somewhere, the team does have to spend a little to meet those noteworthy needs.

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Would you pay, say $4 million for the flexibility, clutchness, and mentoring Canha can provide? I would. I think the Twins would be well-served to make that move.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Absolutely, sign me up. I do think moving a little more away from guys with high strikeout rates isn't a bad thing either.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Decent option, but price will be strong indicator.  The longer he is available, the better the chances the Twins could sign him.

Your 2025 Minnesota Twins:

[GNess]

Well stated. Intriguing option especially given the budget restrictions.

[Blyleven2011]

11 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Decent option, but price will be strong indicator.  The longer he is available, the better the chances the Twins could sign him.

Your 2025 Minnesota Twins:

Dorn taking one for the team  , love it ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think Canha is an interesting possibility, and while he is a different player than Carlos Santana, he could fit the team pretty well.  The lack of power doesn’t concern me a lot, but he is playing first base, so. . . . I’m not entirely sure how I feel about that.  

As for the market inefficiency of getting the HBP, I think it would be hilarious to have the team lead the league in the stat!  You know, what a marketing opportunity for the team that plays in Target Field!

[Mike Sixel]

Nope. 

[bean5302]

0.5 bWAR for a full time position player = negative value. That's the kind of guy you can replace with AAA guys or MiLB free agents. I will continue to maintain that signing full time position guys who are expected to contribute substantially less than 2.0 WAR is foolhardy.

A team needs about 2.5 WAR from each position player, 2.0 WAR from each rotation arm, and 0.5 WAR from bullpen and backup positions to have a good chance at the playoffs. When you bring in players like Mark Cahna, it puts pressure on everybody else.

If the Twins need the payroll space, they need to trade for a right handed outfielder who provides more value, and somebody who can cover CF.

[farmerguychris]

Sounds good, but I expect would only happen if we see someone like Vazquez or Paddock moved first.

[CRF]

C'mon man...stop messing with these guys like Canha. Just throw some more moolah into the pot and bring Goldschmidt in here for a couple years. Sure he's on the downside, but he's much better than Canha. 

[jmlease1]

This is one of those ones where that's a lot of MFing Ifs. IF Canha can still play a solid corner OF...IF Canha's struggles last season were just injury related...IF Canha can stay healthy, IF Canha hasn't lost all of the pop in his bat...

There are worse choices, but hard to get excited about him taking ABs away from someone like Miranda (if Jose is healthy).

My biggest concern with any signing like this is if he flops, will the team be able to let him go, or will they keep throwing him out there to flail. While their persistence has worked sometimes (Carlos Santana after a terrible start, Max Kepler after an awful start where he looked lost), it's failed others (Margot, Farmer, Gallo...). The difficulty in knowing when a guy will recover from a bad start vs chasing that bad bet all season makes me nervous.

[PatPfund]

The Twins shouldn't even be looking at a player like this (or Santana) until after New Year's. Canha was a good player. But counting on a player in his later 30s with a possible lingering hip issue. for a position that involves running is pretty sketchy. And for sure he either needs to get over aspirations of a $10 million contract, and that won't happen until ST starts to loom on the calendar (or someone else pays him the bigger coin).

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Absolutely, sign me up. I do think moving a little more away from guys with high strikeout rates isn't a bad thing either.

I would like him and Santana back - RH bat

[Cory Engelhardt]

I've been debating this offseason a bit. What would you guys think of signing Canha to a 1 year deal, and then flipping a prospect (think top 20 or so Twins prospect) to the Giants for LaMonte Wade Jr.? Both of these guys are good veterans who get on base and don't strike out. Both would be signed for 1 year deals, so they certainly wouldn't block anyone like Rodriguez or Keaschall or others whenever they are ready. 

Canha as your platoon outfielder against lefties and occasional dh, and Wade as your 1b in a platoon with Miranda (Miranda can play elsewhere too.)

It would not be a sexy move per se, but it also would help the team (in my opinion.)

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

they need to trade for a right handed outfielder who provides more value, and somebody who can cover CF.

I think Keirsey and Rodriguez can both cover CF and they're available in AAA whenever Buxton hits the IL. Buy a bat.

[Mike Sixel]

You don't win by amassing 1 war players. You just don't. Play the youth, and gamble on upside. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

You don't win by amassing 1 war players. You just don't. Play the youth, and gamble on upside. 

Not everyone can be a 2 war or better player. You need a bench as well as other guys who can come in and contribute with depth throughout the year. 

The young guys will play when they are ready. Think of it as a better option than rushing someone first.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You don't win by amassing 1 war players. You just don't. Play the youth, and gamble on upside. 

There are only three young guys who have upside higher than 1 WAR player - Rodriguez, Keaschall and Lee. Everyone else above AA has -0.5 to 1 WAR upside.

[DocBauer]

I don't want my LH bats to automatically be platooned. That said, sitting one of them against a LHP, occasionally both if it's a really tough LH, is solid. But I don't want a RH bat with poor defense and no speed who can't hit RHP but ends up with 350 PA again.

IF Canha's hip is healthy and that was the reason for such a down 2024...especially against RHP...and not just suddenly toast, I'm on board. He's not special, but he's a decent hitter with a good OB and occasional pop. And he's been almost completely neutral on his career until last season. And I like that he can be insurance/depth at 1B as well. 

But I only like him for somewhere between $2-3M on a 1yr deal. A soon to be 36yo with limited power and coming off a poor season isn't worth more than that, IMO, no matter how good a guy/teammate he is. The Twins, currently, don't have $2-3M available to be frivolous with.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Not everyone can be a 2 war or better player. You need a bench as well as other guys who can come in and contribute with depth throughout the year. 

The young guys will play when they are ready. Think of it as a better option than rushing someone first.

How do they know when they are ready? This team does NOT cut veteran hitters. They are only replaced when injured. How is this a better upside than Miranda? In any way?

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are only three young guys who have upside higher than 1 WAR player - Rodriguez, Keaschall and Lee. Everyone else above AA has -0.5 to 1 WAR upside.

Miranda, Larnach, Julien can all play first (or learn how). How is this guy a better idea than them? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How do they know when they are ready? This team does NOT cut veteran hitters. They are only replaced when injured. How is this a better upside than Miranda? In any way?

It's certainly upside to what Miranda provided the last 2-3 months of 2024. If Miranda hits like he did prior to July then he will earn at bats. Canha, if nothing else, could be primarily against lefties anyway, and there are spots there.

 

[jmlease1]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

How do they know when they are ready? This team does NOT cut veteran hitters. They are only replaced when injured. How is this a better upside than Miranda? In any way?

that is my real fear with any of these signings with marginal veterans. He's probably not going to hit better than Miranda, but Miranda also shouldn't be running out into the OF.

He looks like the sort of player you grab just before spring training starts for below market because he hasn't found a job yet. (aka, the Donovan Solano) I definitely don't want to run out and grab him in December. Might look better (and cheaper) in Feb

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Miranda, Larnach, Julien can all play first (or learn how). How is this guy a better idea than them? 

On the current depth chart Miranda is 1B, Larnach is LF, Julien is DH. Lee, Martin and Helman are your bench.

Canha can be a better DH than Julien and a better corner OF bat than Martin. Personally, I think they can do better than Canha, but they're not wrong that he makes the team better.

[Heiny]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I really like Canha.  Consumate professional, above average overall player(IMHO).  I don't know what the right price is but I think 4M and a 4M team option for 26.  Also, I doubt he will last till spring training and I think he may be the top end of the Twins free agent possibilities.  That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Not everyone can be a 2 war or better player. You need a bench as well as other guys who can come in and contribute with depth throughout the year. 

The young guys will play when they are ready. Think of it as a better option than rushing someone first.

That's why you have cheap pre-arb guys and guys under team control. Going out and signing free agents to multi-million dollar contracts who are expected to drag on playoff team potential when a team is on a severe budget crunch is nonsensical.

It does sometimes work out of course, like Carlos Santana putting up a year nobody expected. Normally, the outcome is more like Tim Anderson.

[bean5302]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are only three young guys who have upside higher than 1 WAR player - Rodriguez, Keaschall and Lee. Everyone else above AA has -0.5 to 1 WAR upside.

This is a false dilemma. There are other baseball players who are not part of the Twins organization who would make pre-arb money.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's why you have cheap pre-arb guys and guys under team control. Going out and signing free agents to multi-million dollar contracts who are expected to drag on playoff team potential when a team is on a severe budget crunch is nonsensical.

I agree to a certain extent. Guys like Miranda and Julien even have an option remaining, so it's not like you have to jettison anyone to make this work. 

Having depth like this sets a baseline at minimum. If/when the young guys are ready to clear that baseline, then they will be up. And also, who are we kidding, when in the history of the Twins has everyone on the 26 man roster all been healthy at the same time?

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

C'mon man...stop messing with these guys like Canha. Just throw some more moolah into the pot and bring Goldschmidt in here for a couple years. Sure he's on the downside, but he's much better than Canha. 

Larnach, Wallner, and Miranda are better options then Canha.  Why block any of them?

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

This is one of those ones where that's a lot of MFing Ifs. IF Canha can still play a solid corner OF...IF Canha's struggles last season were just injury related...IF Canha can stay healthy, IF Canha hasn't lost all of the pop in his bat...

There are worse choices, but hard to get excited about him taking ABs away from someone like Miranda (if Jose is healthy).

My biggest concern with any signing like this is if he flops, will the team be able to let him go, or will they keep throwing him out there to flail. While their persistence has worked sometimes (Carlos Santana after a terrible start, Max Kepler after an awful start where he looked lost), it's failed others (Margot, Farmer, Gallo...). The difficulty in knowing when a guy will recover from a bad start vs chasing that bad bet all season makes me nervous.

History says no matter how big a flop, which he will, if he's walking he's playing.